Catastrophe bond capacity is maturing, and not much of it is coming back. In the first quarter, $1.8 billion in cat bond risk capital matured, and only $508 million returned in the form of new issuances, according to Thomson Reuters. This quarter, $2.77 billion is maturing, and the absence of first-time issuers makes it unlikely that the market will replace it all. More than a billion of it was from State Farm's Merna Re transaction. The successor to it has already been issued, cleverly named Merna Re II, at only a fraction of the previous bond.

The first catastrophe bond of the quarter closed on opening day ... and it was a big one. State Farm's Merna Re II transaction was good for $350 million in risk capital, upsized from the earlier reported amount of $250 million. Though large, it doesn't compare to the previous Merna Re catastrophe bond, which set a record at $1.2 billion that remains to be beat.

Merna Re II was oversubscribed, but State Farm only wanted to place $350 million, Thomson Reuters reports (registration required). According to one investor who knew about the transaction, "The deal was oversubscribed at +365 basis points and after being upsized to $350 million." The investor added, "The initial price talk was 365 - 405 bp, but the deal got priced at 365 bp. However, Merna was a simple transaction and State Farm only wanted to place 350 million."

Like Willis Re (WSH) and Marsh & McLennan's (MMC) Guy Carpenter, reinsurance broker Aon Benfield (AOC) found risk-transfer pricing to have softened at the April 1, 2010 reinsurance renewal. It was the same story around the world: the Q1 catastrophes may do some damage to earnings, but the sector was sufficiently capitalized to absorb the shocks. In fact, Aon Benfield reported that the reinsurance industry had nearly returned to record capital levels. At the beginning 2008, the sector was in the same situation before the financial crisis and Hurricane Gustav and Ike depleted balance sheets on the same weekend in September.

The first quarter catastrophes weren't enough to push property-catastrophe reinsurance rates lower. Even though the first quarter was a busy one for catastrophe losses, particularly for global reinsurers, they weren't sufficient to change the market. As a result, the four regions renewing at April 1, 2010 -- the United States, Japan, Latin America and South Korea -- ranged from soft to controlled, according to the latest from Guy Carpenter, the reinsurance arm of Marsh & McLennan (MMC). This comes as no surprise, as indications throughout the run-up to the renewal pointed to an orderly process in which there would be enough capital to support the market's needs.

Look for big numbers from the property/casualty sector of the insurance industry for full-year 2009. Light catastrophe losses were a big help, leaving more cash in the coffers to benefit from the recovering financial markets following the September 2008 crisis. Reinsurance companies, in particular, will benefit from the light catastrophe activity of 2009.

Among 52 publicly traded insurance companies, rating agency Fitch reports, the incurred loss ratio fell to 65.8%, a decline of 1.8 percentage points, and the expense ratio increased to 28.5% (up 0.6 percentage points). This caused underwriting profits for the entire group to improve, as indicate by the overall combined ratio of 94.3% for 2009, down from 95.5% in 2008 (a lower combined ratio s a positive development).

With borrowing costs at their lowest levels since 2004, reinsurers are loading up on corporate debt in part to fund stock buybacks. The latest tally, according to Bloomberg News, is $1.34 billion in additional borrowing, with Endurance Specialty Holdings (ENH), a Bermuda-based company, recently selling $85 million in bonds. Other recent transactions include Axis Capital Holdings (AXS) and PartnerRe (PRE) each issuing $500 million in bonds and RenaissanceRe (RNR) adding $250 million to the count.

After weeks of speculation, the financial damage from the Chile earthquake and Windstorm Xynthia in Europe is starting to emerge. According to a recent report by Moody's, 16 global reinsurance companies have reported their net insured losses (before taxes) from the catastrophe event, and the damage has already reached $3.5 billion, increasing an already high tally. The firm expects these events to have a noticeable impact on first quarter results for the industry.

According to the report, the first quarter of 2010's results "will have many moving pieces, including the possibility of favorable loss reserve development." It continues, though, that "we would expect a number of reinsurers to post both operating and net losses for the quarter."

Merna Re, the largest catastrophe bond of all time, is set to mature in June, and State Farm is already putting together its replacement, the creatively named Merna Re II. The successor, planned for issuance in April, is said to be for $400 million in risk capital, though investor demand could push it as high as $700 million. This still pales in comparison to the $1.2 billion that the original brought in the door.

If State Farm is able to stimulate demand for Merna Re II, which would protect the company from non-California earthquake risk in the U.S., it will be third cat bond to come to market in 2010, which is expected to be a strong year for this form of risk transfer. The cat bond market fell silent after the near-collapse of American International Group (AIG) in September 2008 but was still the third busiest in terms of capital issued in the history of the cat bond market. Heading into 2009, prospects for the cat bond space seemed uncertain, but a robust fourth quarter eventually resulted in a year-over-year increase, driven mostly by repeat issuers.

Catastrophe modelers, insurers and reinsurers are still sorting out the damage from Windstorm Xynthia in Europe and the earthquake in Chile. Taking only the highest of high-end estimates, the damage from these two catastrophes could exceed $12 billion, resulting in fairly steep property-catastrophe losses long before hurricane season begins. With three more major property reinsurance renewals remaining for the year -- at April 1, June 1 (Florida) and July 1 -- there is plenty of time for the impact of these events to be absorbed into reinsurance pricing.