A report in Thursday's The Wall Street Journal [subscription required] reveals that American International Group (NYSE: AIG) is actually reaping the benefits of its risky bets in the credit-default swap market.

AIG was forced to shell out billions to Wall Street banks amid last year's credit crisis, as the assets backed by the credit-default swaps plummeted in value. However, the market's reversal of fortune means that banking heavyweights, such as Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS), are now returning collateral to the infamous insurance giant.

Another day of interesting news to watch. Not sure if you have read Simon Johnson's article in the Atlantic "The Quiet Coup" about how financial oligarchs in the U.S. are delaying the Big Reckoning, but its thoughtful and sobering reading.

More wonderful and weird tidings: Bain Capital, the brainiac Boston buyout fund, has hired salvage consultancy AlixPartners to extricate any remaining value from its bankrupt buy-out, Outback Steakhouse Incorporated. Outback is the originator of mega-calorie Blooming Onion, and is apparently too many calories for Bain, as the company reported a quarterly loss of a whopping $750 million.

Big grocery chain The Kroger Company (NYS: KR) reported strong earnings. That's the good news. The bad news? Growth was fueled by record growth in purchases by customers of its private label goods, which rose to a stunning 35% of total store purchases. Not only cat food, but white label cat food for the recession, people.

Everyone is trying to figure out the roots of the current financial crisis. You can trace it back to one man, Mr. Li, and a formula that was very misused by Wall Street. Let me start by telling you a story that took place some 30 years ago.

I was sitting in my statistics class and the professor walked in and said, "Today we are going to learn about correlations." He explained that correlation is very simple. It is a single number that describes the degree of relationship between two variables, and that there was a formula in our book we could use. "But right now," he said " it's more important that you learn the concept that a correlation is a single number that describes the degree of relationship between two variables," he repeated, as professors often do. "Your answer will therefore always range between -1 and +1."

Investment bankers are suing their employer for millions in unpaid bonus commitments. Apparently, they did not get the memo on the economy. Meanwhile, here's why Netbooks are perfect for this recession. Too bad it means dark times for Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT).

Sentiment on Intel and Microsoft is somewhat negative. Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ: ORCL) is reporting later today and whisper sentiment is not good. When database sales crash, so goes enterprise software.

Apparently the markets think that U.S. risk of sovereign default is steadily creeping up. Hedge fund blogger Zero Hedge puts up the numbers here. According to the numbers from finance calculator company Markit, U.S. is a greater default risk than Japan or Germany, among others.

A default would destroy the U.S. economy and TARP recipients, in particular. The Piqqem Sentiment on major TARP holders is more or less neutral, although the bankruptcy of the U.S. Treasury might change that, no?

It would be nice if we could just wave a magic wand and evaporate the $13 trillion worth of toxic waste that's dragging down the global financial system. But we'll have to dispose of it somehow in order to reboot the financial system. A colleague of mine came up with a brilliant idea: the government could guarantee the failed mortgages buried inside that toxic waste -- meaning that the owner of a bundle would not incur any loss from a failed mortgage for the next 3 years.

After all, those mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) are just bundles of mortgages. If 15% of those mortgages fail and the government agrees to guarantee those over the next three years, then the MBSs and CDOs -- e.g., the toxic waste -- would suddenly increase in value because the losses to the entire bundle of the 15% of the failed mortgages would be limited.

Analyst upgrades:

• Keefe Bruyette upgraded shares of Colonial Bancgroup (NYSE: CNB) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation following the recent weakness and believes the company will be eligible to receive TARP funds. Morgan Stanley believes the company's valuation adequately reflects risk to the loan portfolio; the firm raised shares to Equal Weight from Underweight.
• Merrill upgraded Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) and ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML) to Buy from Underperform and believes their valuation reflects the worst-case for bad news.
• Oppenheimer upgraded Trimble Navigation to Outperform from Perform on valuation as they believe the company's long-term growth story is intact.
• Celestica (NYSE: CLS) was upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC.
• KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) was added to Goldman's Conviction Buy List.
• Wachovia raised EastGroup Properties (NYSE: EGP) to Outperform from Market Perform.

Analyst downgrades:

• UBS cut Barclays (NYSE: BCS) to Neutral from Buy as they believe capital raises could negatively impact earnings and that the dividend is likely to be cut.
• JP Morgan downgraded Discovery Holdings (NASDAQ: DISCA) to Underweight from Neutral based on valuation and the deteriorating economic outlook.
• Friedman Billings downgraded shares of Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS) to Underperform from Market Perform and lowered its target to $7 from $23 as they see further risk to the downside following the company's weaker-than-expected results.
• LKQ Corp (NASDAQ: LKQX) was cut to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital.
• Affymetrix (NASDAQ: AFFX) was lowered to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
• RightNow Tech (NASDAQ: RNOW) was downgraded at Baird to Neutral from Outperform.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says all that can really help us now is time.

Yeah, I trust it. Sure.

That's what everyone is saying today. They see the futures and they are now conditioned to "fade" it, to go against it and just be glad to get minuscule higher prices than you could get yesterday.

I am no different. Last year when the Fed started injecting funds like crazy with the rest of the world, we had a real lift.

But there is so little confidence now that we can't possibly be comforted this time around.

The fright of yesterday, where people trusted only T-bills because anyone who had money with Lehman (NYSE: LEH) (Cramer's Take) international or owned their debt was just killed -- thanks to Dick Fuld for not taking that Korean bid -- won't go away in one day.

The notion of opportunity, of actually buying something and watching it go up, seemed to vanish. I don't think the SEC's decision to enforce an old law will cut it, and I am now repulsed by the chorus calling for the uptick rule -- even though that's my position -- because they all sound like sore losers.

Lurking in the background of this weekend's collapse of two of Wall Street's biggest names, is a $62 trillion segment of the $450 trillion market for derivatives that grew huge thanks to John McCain's chief economic advisor, Phil "Americans are Whiners" Gramm. That's because in December 2000, Gramm, while a U.S. Senator, snuck in a 262-page amendment to a government re-authorization bill that created what is now the $62 trillion market for credit default swaps (CDSs).

I realize it is painful to read about yet another Wall Street acronym, but this is important because it will help you understand why the global financial markets are collapsing. And it will give you information to consider when you vote in November. CDSs are like insurance policies for bondholders. In exchange for a premium, the bondholders get insurance in case the bondholder can't pay. As I posted, in the case of the $1.4 trillion worth of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) bonds, the government's nationalization last Sunday triggered the CDSs on those bonds. The people who received the CDS premiums are now obligated to deliver those bonds to the ones who paid the premiums.

Gramm's 262-page amendment, dubbed "The Commodity Futures Modernization Act," according to Texas Observer, freed financial institutions from oversight of their CDS transactions. "Prior to its passage, they say, banks underwrote mortgages and were responsible for the risks involved. Now, through the use of [CDSs]-which in theory insure the banks against bad debts-those risks are passed along to insurance companies and other investors," wrote Texas Observer.

A month from now, on April 19, "hundreds of independent record stores across the country will celebrate Record Store Day." In addition to the stores, numerous artists will lend their support to the day and some will appear or offer special gifts to lucky fans and attendees. This support indicates what place the CD has even in a shrinking market and where the record industry fits into that market. If artists can still support a dying format and the stores that rely on that product, hopefully fans, listeners, and consumers can find something in it, too.

A kink in the plans of artists like Paul McCartney and Stephen Malkmus to support the day is that while they can appreciate record stores based on experiences in their youths or support the stores by buying hundreds of dollars worth of CDs, young people today may not be as familiar with the entity or have the money to buy that many CDs. This is especially true in the economy right now, but even more pronounced when one considers the ease and availability that digital stores have introduced to accessing and enjoying music and other media from the comfort of one's own house.

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"Our top speculative idea for 2008 is China Direct (ASE: CDS)," says Jim Trippon, editor of The China Stock Digest. "China Direct is an aggressively expanding US-based firm that has grown exponentially over the course of the past year -- from a start-up with meager profits to a thriving concern with a sharp revenue growth curve. Share prices are following suit.

"China Direct's management division acquires controlling stakes in Chinese companies and then provides investment capital and active management. Its consulting division assists other companies in China and the US in establishing and maintaining a presence in the US capital markets.

"The company says that, as a direct link to China, it serves as a vehicle allowing investors to directly participate in the rapid growth of the Chinese economy in a diversified and balanced manner.

It seems that whenever you talk to someone about the music industry, the discussion eventually comes to the steep decline that has occurred in the past few years as the growth of digital downloads has affected the sales of CDs. Whenever I think about that decline, it's hard to see it simply because I still purchase a large quantity of CDs and only a handful of downloads per month. Still though, when I do download an album it always (and I mean always) comes from Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iTunes Store, primarily because I own an iPod.

While that may sound like a complaint, it really isn't because I have always found the iTunes Store very usable and the iPod very convenient, but the reality is that not everyone shares that opinion. For some users, the question of accessibility has become a major issue, and iTunes dominance in the market affects how accessible they view the market. This is not without warrant of course -- no matter the success of Apple with the iPod and iTunes; it is still a dominating product in a shrinking field. This view does not even take in the account of CD users.

With the beta launch this week of Amazon.com's (NASDAQ: AMZN) MP3 store, Apple finally has a competitor that will be able to challenge iTunes with sales and prices, not to mention that the DRM-free (Digital Rights Technology) downloads will be playable on the iPod, among other portable devices. Amazon's DRM-free tracks are not limited to music from EMI Group PLC and numerous independent labels, either. Certainly both of these differences will aid the new Amazon "iTunes" store, but the very fact that it remains an online store adding an MP3 section means that it should fare well against a store dedicated strictly to media digital downloads.

As I continuously ruminate about the state of music, album sales, and the growth of online digital markets, how much consumers care about these topics is something I have not strayed too close to. I think it is safe to say that consumers do care, but I cannot say if it is to the degree with which I am fascinated and write about it.

I was reminded by a mentor and colleague a few days ago how easy the use of Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iTunes Store and iPod are if you are hoping to listen to only one song or a few songs, but not an album. Of course, that very dynamic is what I so often write about in my blogs about the death of the album, but who exactly is decrying the death of the album? No matter how much I write about that death, it is very apparent that those who are worried about the death of such a money maker are the labels and the industry.

The nice thing about iTunes and other digital stores is that if you are just browsing you can listen to clips of the songs. This is not a method of shopping that you can easily acquire at stores like Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) or Target (NYSE: TGT), although Best Buy is beginning to incorporate computer stations where you can make test runs of programs like Rhapsody and Napster. They hope you will then sign up for a subscription to that service through Best Buy. Browsing at stores like these only ever really entails looking at the product. If you know nothing about it, then you cannot know if it will be something you are happy to spend your money on.