I wrote here recently that China was experiencing a nasty bout of inflation along with meteoric growth. China admits as much and is taking active steps to combat it. With a recently published inflation rate of 6.5% and certain food prices spiking (pork is up 55%), China is pledging to rein in export growth.
With all the focus on China, I was interested to see Dr. Enzio von Pfeil on CNBC discussing Chinese inflation. While I don't have access to the video, you can read about the interview on Enzio's own blog, Enzio's Clock.
Dr. von Pfeil's thesis is that food inflation, while spiking in China, is something beyond the purview of the Chinese Central Bank. Through monetary policy, central banks can affect only non-food inflation. Inflation in food prices comes from policy issues, weather, and rising global commodity prices -- not excess supply of money and excess demand for good.
Dr. von Pfeil doesn't think China is overheating, though he does caution waiting to step into the Chinese market until after the subprime mess has run its course in the U.S. and abroad. Good, sagacious advice.
As is frequently the case in quickly growing economies, it's hard to stay on the sidelines until after all overhangs have cleared. By then, a big chunk of the investment opportunity has passed the investor by. There are always significant risks in investing and returns provided have to be greater to compensate investors for assuming such risks. I like Dr. von Pfeil's analysis, and he's a much smarter investor than I am -- I'm just not sure how actionable this really is.
Zack Miller is the lead equity analyst for America Israel Investment Associates, LLC., the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund. Disclosure: I personally own shares in Chinese ETF, FXI.