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Chasing Value: 2009 picks 731% better than S&P -- 2nd quarter review

The second quarter is now behind us and for the most part it was a positive one in terms of the market pushing higher almost 40%. This is the second review of my 2009 stock picks through June 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). There was a lot of talk about green shoots this past quarter as Wall Street was looking for any small bit of optimistic data to support the market.

The federal printing presses continued to run at full speed pushing the dollar lower and oil prices higher. While the feds were printing money to cover their deficits, the States do not have that same luxury and many of them are having trouble balancing their budgets to the tune of billions of dollars.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2009 picks 731% better than S&P -- 2nd quarter review

Chasing Value: Favorite trades -- BHP Billiton

This is a continuation of a theme I have been writing about this year involving stock options referred to as naked puts.

This allows investors to take a position in a stock, most often below its current price, but depending on market sentiment. That sentiment remains relatively negative so the spreads are attractive.

I have been following BHP Billiton Ltd ADR (NYSE: BHP) the largest mining company in the world, with headquarters in Australia, for a while but I do not own the stock today. I view all mining companies as an opportunity because I think the diversified raw materials they control are the best hedge against inflation. I do not think inflation is imminent, but with the extreme increases in money supply and debt being created I do not think it will be avoidable a few years out.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Favorite trades -- BHP Billiton

Chasing Value: Favorite trades -- UPS

For those of you who are able to trade options, I have been writing more and more about naked puts, "selling to open" stock options that I have been doing all year with great returns due to an overabundance of fear.

Yesterday I reviewed one example in Chasing Value: GE -- maybe not eating out of trash cans after all, and today I review some of my favorite ways to make money and improve my portfolio.

Let me start with United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS), a company with a great balance sheet, strong management, and trading 29% off its 52-week high, about where I sold it last year. I bought it earlier this year at the bargain basement price of $44, and now wished I had bought more.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Favorite trades -- UPS

Chasing Value: GE -- maybe not eating out of trash cans after all

This week I closed out an option on General Electric (NYSE: GE) I had discussed four months ago regarding the absolute fear in the market place that I felt had driven investors off a cliff (see Chasing Value: Will we be eating out of trash cans?).

At the time I had noticed that GE naked puts, a "sell to open" put option, would pay me, on the spot, 52 cents a share if I would commit to buying the shares if they dropped below $2.50 by January 2011. This meant that my break-even position was $1.98 a share when GE was selling for five times that.

Continue reading Chasing Value: GE -- maybe not eating out of trash cans after all

Chasing Value: Microsoft, Microsoft and more Microsoft

There are better companies and better stocks to invest in these days than Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), but it would be silly of me to leave this company totally out of the picture just because it is not in my top ten.

The market is down a few percentage points as I write and MSFT is down in sync with the market. Many investment gurus have stated that they think a 10% correction is in order after the huge run-up since March 9, 2009. I am not so sure there will be a 10% correction or any particular correction just because the market was on a hot streak.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Microsoft, Microsoft and more Microsoft

Chasing Value: AT&T and VZ, high yield plus safety

Nothing is worse than repeating past mistakes. Despite the awful economy, my newest portfolio is doing better than any other since 1999-2000, actually passing a 100% gain recently, although it has dropped back slightly with the market the past few trading days.

Ten years is recent enough for me to remember giving everything back and then some. I'm not doing that again. But what to do? I certainly do not like sitting with a heavy cash position collecting almost nothing. I have recently discussed this issue, see: Serious Money: ETF that's better than cash.

The solution is to find stocks that have low volatility, high yields, and the recurring revenue and strong cash flow to maintain the yield. Long term investors will not be surprised by my search leading me to AT and T (NYSE: T) and Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ), the two largest communications companies in the land.


Continue reading Chasing Value: AT&T and VZ, high yield plus safety

Chasing Value: EZ Corp down -- opportunity knocks

This has been a good year for many stock pickers and my Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more is beating the market to date. The formal review will be published after the second quarter.

Among the stocks that have been doing surprisingly poorly, of the nine, is EZCORP (NASDAQ: EZPW) that owns and operates a chain of pawn shops and cash advance outlets.

Today it is trading significantly lower, from yesterday's close of $12.89, off about 14.5%, bouncing around the $11.00 mark. The stock is down on company news that earnings for the next two quarters and the full year would be down a few cents per share below analysts estimates and earlier company forecasts.

Continue reading Chasing Value: EZ Corp down -- opportunity knocks

Chasing Value: 2009 picks -- 1st review

The 2009 clock is ticking loudly. Last December I posted Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more. This is the first follow-up, four months later, through April 30 2009.

The year started off with continued turbulence. We have a new president, Barack Obama, who will boldly lead us where no man has gone before -- trillions further in debt, most likely.

Not that this is his doing, but it is his chosen calling, and right now he is calling out to the Congress to move forward on various contentious budget proposals and continued federal stimulus packages.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2009 picks -- 1st review

Chasing Value: 5% yield from Olin, a 'boring' old company

Most people probably have not heard of the Olin Corp (NYSE: OLN), even though it has been in business in the United States since 1892 (127 years!), and has been selling ammunition under the 140-year-old Winchester brand since it acquired the company 76 years ago.

While Olin has been around a long time, it does not get much attention. It is only capitalized at $1 billion and much of what it sells is far from glamorous. It also does more wholesale than retail business. However, investors should remember this: Olin pays a safe 5% yield!

Continue reading Chasing Value: 5% yield from Olin, a 'boring' old company

Chasing Value: Wells Fargo - squeezing out the shorts!

I have written many times in the past year about Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and since it is up another 23.66% today, I'd like to come back to it. As an investor I have done more than just blab (or blog) about it. I have been loading up on the stock, acquiring shares at $12.00 when the bears were ruling the market only a short time ago -- a very short time ago!

In the last month, Wells is up an amazing 48.41%, and that for the safest bank in the United States. The stock closed today at $24.25, up $4.64.

In addition to buying the stock, I have been playing with naked put options at multiple levels. The extreme negativity in the market created a huge opportunity, so much so that I wrote Chasing Value: Will we be eating out of trash cans? which includes a discussion of naked put options.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Wells Fargo - squeezing out the shorts!

Chasing Value: Watch BNI -- the heck with Citigroup

Last year most analysts proclaimed that the market would be up by the years end. The only accurate part of the analysis was that the year did end; although not well.

When Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) was trading at $114 analysts were silent. When it dropped below $100 and then $90 a share I do not recall anyone writing anything accept that "my pal Warren" was buying. At $80, and then $70 not more than a whisper.

Then yesterday when BNI was trading in the mid $60's (it closed at $64.97) Citigroup (NYSE: C) Investment Research analyst Matthew Troy cut shares of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. and Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. to "Sell" from "Hold."

Continue reading Chasing Value: Watch BNI -- the heck with Citigroup

Chasing Value: Intuitive Surgical surging ahead!

If stocks were drums then there would be no stock that I have been pounding louder than Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) for the last decade!

The stock has been moving upward every day for over a week gaining more than 50% in that time. It is up about 11% to $152.00 in mid day trading.

It was only two days ago that I posted Chasing Value: Intuitive Surgical's right price outlining why the stock was a value, but determining the exact value was not possible. If there was anyone that heeded my call then, they must be smiling today.


Continue reading Chasing Value: Intuitive Surgical surging ahead!

Chasing Value: Williams has the pipes and it's not blowing smoke

As I have been sharing with our readers over the years, I do not suggest anything I would not do myself. Today I am calling your attention to the Williams Companies, Inc. (NYSE: WMB) which I bought today at $13.00.

I had already taken advantage of a negative market view on the stock by selling "naked puts" at a November $12.50 strike price receiving $2.25 per share. I have been touting this as a way to make some money if you truly are interested in owning the stock already. On the puts my break even position is $10.25, the same as the recent market bottom.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Williams has the pipes and it's not blowing smoke

Chasing Value: Intuitive Surgical's right price

It is not possible to follow all stocks or companies with equal intensity, focus, or depth of knowledge. One that I have followed for over ten years is Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG).

I originally bought in at the very bottom, about $7.70 and last year sold about 20% of our position for $192. The stock had reached an all time high about 18 months ago just shy of $360, so my timing was far from ideal, but I was influenced by other factors. In this case a real estate transaction.

Over the past six months I have been buying more shares and have more than doubled our position. I believe that ISRG remains a growth stock, but for quite some time it has been value priced. However, I cannot tell you what exactly is the right price -- that is a big question.


Continue reading Chasing Value: Intuitive Surgical's right price

Chasing Value: Cisco Systems -- rich, good looking & smart

At the end of the regular trading session Tuesday, Cisco Systems (NYSE: CSCO) had a capitalization of $97.36 billion at a stock price of $16.68. The latest company report of February 4, 2009 stated that total cash, cash equivalents and Investments was $29.5 billion.

What can you say but WOW! -- CSCO has 31% cash!

There are other cash rich companies that are holding up well through the economic firestorm but I do not know of any others with this much cash. As consumers and large companies have been trimming their spending, Cisco has had difficulty growing, but I think this is a buying opportunity.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Cisco Systems -- rich, good looking & smart

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Last updated: July 11, 2009: 06:56 AM

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