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Chasing Value: Profiting from Ixtapa -- Buffett, Gold, Oil, Options and More

The market is getting gently hammered today, but that only presents more opportunities from my perspective.

I am in Ixtapa, Mexico, nearing the conclusion of my first ever week long rest during a 35 year working career ... and counting. In some ways I am hoping to mold my future working environment from seashore to shining seashore -- all around the world -- taking advantage of modern technology. I am thinking of it as "have beach (+Internet), will travel."

Continue reading Chasing Value: Profiting from Ixtapa -- Buffett, Gold, Oil, Options and More

Chasing Value: Corn Soaring, ADM Boring, Investors Snoring

Last year, Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) was included in my stock picks for 2010 and it lost 4.9%. I gave some consideration to keeping it in the mix this year but thought more highly of other stocks in 2011, so I cast it off.

The turning of a calendar page is arbitrary and investments have only modest correlation to it in most instances. However, two weeks into the year ADM is already up, closing Wednesday at $32.56.

Corn prices have been rising and when last I checked futures were up another 1.47% in early morning trading.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Corn Soaring, ADM Boring, Investors Snoring

Chasing Value: How to Find Value Stocks -- Part 2

In Part 1 of this series I discussed starting with a good story and then examining the metrics, or first starting with the metrics via a stock screen and then look at the story behind the numbers.

A third possibility is to start with an idea that springs off the pages of a business journal. Some years ago, in the 25th anniversary edition of Money Magazine they listed a group of stocks that had gone up during this tenure. The one I liked the best that withstood closer scrutiny was Southern Company (SO), the electric utility.

The story and the metrics were great. It was located in one of the most desirable growth areas of the country. There was a favorable business climate, cheap housing, cheap land, good weather and an abundance of labor. The numbers were strong as well.

Continue reading Chasing Value: How to Find Value Stocks -- Part 2

Chasing Value: How to Find Value Stocks -- Part 1

On Friday I had the opportunity to present an investment strategy I developed over the past few years to a major asset manager interested in learning the intricacies. Among the questions he asked, one that comes up often, is how do I go about finding particular stocks that I think might be of value.

The answer of course is not so simple, because like any other type of discovery they come about in a variety of ways. Sometimes it begins with a story, as it did in December 2008 when I included EZCorp (EZPW) among my 2009 stock picks (and 2010 and 2011). In this case I was pondering what was going to be safe, and perhaps even in growing demand during a year of financial turmoil and high unemployment. The answer was pawn shops and cash-advance stores.

Continue reading Chasing Value: How to Find Value Stocks -- Part 1

Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 10 and 11

I have already gone on record this year saying that financial companies and insurance stocks are going to continue to rebound. In my previous two posts Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11 and Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 6, 7, 8, 9, I included several financial institutions. Today I add an insurance company.

The industry got whacked hard for many reasons. For one, it makes a significant amount of profit by investing its float, and like every other investor, the industry lost a pile of money in the financial crisis. It was embroiled more directly than some industries, as several insurers are affiliated with banks. Finally the housing crisis meant disruption to payment streams by homeowners who were delinquent on more than their mortgages.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 10 and 11

Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 6, 7, 8, 9

Bank of America (BAC) logoHere are the next four of my 2011 picks. I am behind schedule, after publishing the first 5 earlier in the week (see: Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11). This year instead of starting completely anew, I am adjusting my 2010 picks. There is no sense in abandoning good ideas just because the calendar turned a page.

You will actually find support of running themes I have been writing about over the past few months. One of these is the idea of making a contrarian investment in a basket of stocks that have been both scalded and scolded in the headlines. Six stocks were included in such a group that I called the "toxic stocks" (see: Chasing Value: Toxic Stock Update #3 -- BAC, BP, C, GE, GS, RIG).

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 6, 7, 8, 9

Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11

General Electric (GE) logoThis is the fifth year that I am posting my stock picks for the year. There is a lot of foolishness in doing so because each year that I have made such suggestions, including 2009 when I owned all of the picks, it is assumed that I would hold all of the positions without responding to market conditions, or changes in the specific company. No adding to, or cutting a position. This is not the real world.

It is not possible for everything to remain static. For example, you might find that you hold a stock that made a great run through three quarters, beyond your wildest expectations, and decide it has passed a point where the metrics cannot support anything close to the price. Under normal circumstances you might sell it, except you cannot. By the end of the year the profit you might have realized fades away and you end up reporting on something that is not a true measure of your objective strategy. Nevertheless, once again I will stick with this approach because this seems to be how its done in every publication's annual picks. This year there are eleven.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11

Chasing Value: 2010 Final Review -- Winners and Losers

EZCorp logoThe year 2010 has come and gone and my results are in. This is my fourth annual stock results to be reported on BlogginStocks, so something of a track record is starting to form. This past year ended with a modest improvement over the unmanaged Standard & Poors 500 index

The original story, Chasing Value: 10 Stock Picks for 2010, took readers through a review of many candidates, concluding with the ten picks, using prices from Dec. 28, 2009.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2010 Final Review -- Winners and Losers

Chasing Value: New Years Quick Takes

Can you hear me now? Well listen closely, Verizon Communications (VZ) is going to get a bounce from the Apple Inc. (AAPL) iPhone in 2011. Nothing you don't already know. Is there a more sure thing in the coming year? Long term it will fade some, but in 2011 the pent up demand has to have a positive impact.

Communications: The telephone companies everywhere are going to have a good year. Verizon is a great stock for Roth IRA's, paying a 5.41% yield. The dilution of the iPhone market may hurt AT&T, Inc. (T) some, as VZ is helped, but it too is a good long term hold and pays an even higher yield at 5.76%.

If you want to diversify internationally there are multiple good choices and they pay even higher yields.

Continue reading Chasing Value: New Years Quick Takes

Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- Part 2

Newcastle Investments (NCT) logoCould a stock that you made 1,100% on still have room to run? Yes, it is possible. In particular if it had a near death experience as a penny stock for a while.

That is the case with Newcastle Investments (NCT), the CMBS lender and real estate investment company that reached a recent high of $7.10 and has settled back down, most recently hovering between $6.70 to $7.00. It closed Thursday December 23 at $6.71.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- Part 2

Chasing Value: Pre-Christmas Quick Takes

To paraphrase Mark Twain "The reports of our death are greatly exaggerated". The world economy has been in shambles for a few years now, and our nation has much work ahead of it. 2010 was an improvement over 2009 and I believe 2011 will show further improvement.

There are lots of ideas running through my mind as I consider where the economy might be heading in 2011. What opportunities lay in front of us waiting to be picked up or passed over? Just five trading days left, and market activity will slow down except among fund managers making adjustments for tax purposes or window dressing. You should examine your tax situation, too.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Pre-Christmas Quick Takes

Chasing Value: GameStop's Demise Not Imminent, Just Inevitable

It was September 29 when I last wrote about GameStop (GME) in Chasing Value: Are GameStop's Days Numbered? At that time I strongly believed "The demise of GameStop is not imminent -- but it's inevitable." My opinion of this outlet for new and used video games has indeed changed since that time.

I now believe even more fervently that GameStop the gamer is a goner. If you own it, you are playing a game of chicken to see if you make a few bucks with GME as it bounces up and down before it sinks. A word of caution is in order: timing the market as a strategy is a losing proposition the majority of the time.

Continue reading Chasing Value: GameStop's Demise Not Imminent, Just Inevitable

Chasing Value: Defense and Oil -- Part 4 Conclusion

The list of stocks has been whittled down to four. Chevron Corporation (CVX) made the cut to become the oil company stock. Three defense sector powerhouses are competing for one spot in Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- The Journey Begin.

Today we take a more comprehensive view returning to earlier metrics, and adding some other criteria in order to reach a conclusion. This series began with the contention that making specific predictions was a fools errand with the danger to your portfolio coming from "black swans". To try and add some general counter measures to this possibility I decided that the defense and oil sectors might provide protection against the greatest of threats, war and terrorism. On that basis I posted Chasing Value: You Must Own Defense and Oil for Safety.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Defense and Oil -- Part 4 Conclusion

Chasing Value: Defense and Oil -- Part 3

The list of stocks under consideration has been reduced from eleven to ten, to seven and now in today's story four. Starting with five major defense contractors and six major oil companies (see Chasing Value: You Must Own Defense and Oil for Safety), I began a search to find one stock in each sector that might be suitable for inclusion in my list of 2011 stock picks posted last week Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- The Journey Begin.

Today we continue our analysis by examining return on equity (ROE), return on invested capital (ROIC), and price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG). Each stock is ranked by sector and metric from best to worst. Sometimes there are clear winners and others there is little to separate one stock from the next. However, in total, a picture can be drawn that does portray a superior opportunity.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Defense and Oil -- Part 3

Chasing Value: Defense and Oil -- Part 2

Lockhood MartinThis series started with five major defense contractors and six major oil companies that are worthy considerations to help your portfolio survive a global crisis (see Chasing Value: You Must Own Defense and Oil for Safety). After the first review, one stock was eliminated from consideration: Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR). The reason is in the first story.

Today we continue our analysis by examining price-to-book (P/B), price-to-cash-flow (P/CF), and dividend yield. Each stock is ranked by sector and metric from best to worst. In the end we hope to narrow down our choices for candidates that might be added to Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- The Journey Begins.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Defense and Oil -- Part 2

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