In Q1, Ashland exceeded the First Call EPS estimate, despite sluggish-to-poor demand conditions that saw volumes decline 10-40%. Further, the integration of acquired Hercules Inc. has gone well, with more than $60 million in operational savings registered as of the close of Q1. The First Call F2009 / F2010 EPS estimates for ASH are $1.52 / $1.95.
chemicals posts
FeedAshland knows the global rebound is up ahead
In Q1, Ashland exceeded the First Call EPS estimate, despite sluggish-to-poor demand conditions that saw volumes decline 10-40%. Further, the integration of acquired Hercules Inc. has gone well, with more than $60 million in operational savings registered as of the close of Q1. The First Call F2009 / F2010 EPS estimates for ASH are $1.52 / $1.95.
Continue reading Ashland knows the global rebound is up ahead
Does 20% haircut make Dow Chemical attractive?
I recently put together a report of stocks to avoid in 2009. In compiling the list, I used general themes that I thought would struggle during the coming year. At the top of the list were chemical companies.
Though not on the list of specific stocks to avoid, I certainly did consider calling out Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) as a stock to avoid in the coming year. That would have been insightful, as shares of DOW lost nearly 20% of their value due to the termination of a joint venture project in Kuwait
The proposed K-Dow Petrochemicals was formed to help Dow reduce exposure to the highly cyclical petrochemical plastics business. More importantly, the $17.4 billion venture was slated to provide Dow some much needed cash, including $7 billion up front.
That cash was going to be needed in Dow's yet-to-be-closed acquisition of Rohm and Haas Company (NYSE: ROH). That deal is currently valued at just over $15 billion and would have been much easier to swallow with the K-Dow deal intact.
Now, legitimate questions are being raised as to whether the Rohm and Haas deal will close. Dow is claiming, and had previously claimed, that it did not need the Kuwait deal to fund the acquisition.
Continue reading Does 20% haircut make Dow Chemical attractive?
Olin Corp.: A decidedly low-profile play
Olin Corp. (NYSE: OLN) is a diversified producer of chlor-alkali chemicals and ammunition.
Analysts like Olin's chlor-alkali business (75% of 2008 revenue), including products caustic soda and chlorine, among others. An ammunition business rounds-out OLN's diverse industrial plate. Look for the ammunition business to continue to benefit from strong U.S. Government orders, in the immediate years ahead. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for OLN are $1.97/$2.03.
The risks? The commodity chemicals segment is cyclical -- some products are used in pulp and paper processing and to keep swimming pool water clean, for example -- so analysts will look for signs of a slower-economy-induced dip in orders in Q1/Q2 2008. Analysts are also keeping an eye on Olin's skilled labor costs.
Chemtura rises on Blackstone, Apollo buyout chatter
Chemtura Corporation (NYSE: CEM), a chemical company, is the result of a merger of Crompton Corporation and Great Lakes Chemical Corporation back in 2005. Since then, the company has been "right-sizing" and "right-shaping" its organization with divestitures as well as more acquisitions. Some of the company's core competencies include plastic additives, seed treatments, pool and spa products, and urethane polymers.
Well, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal [subscription], it looks like The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and Apollo Management LP are interested in purchasing Chemtura. True, it sounds like the talks are preliminary; but at the same time, private equity firms are hungry for deals, especially for valuations of $2 to $4 billion.
Blackstone and Apollo are highly experienced in the chemical space, and have had fairly good success. If anything, Chemtura is likely to find synergy with other portfolio companies.
Continue reading Chemtura rises on Blackstone, Apollo buyout chatter
For leaner times, a leaner DuPont (DD)
Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, DuPont is worth a review.
Change is rarely easy for any corporation, and when you're the size of DuPont, it's an undertaking of epic proportions.
DuPont (NYSE: DD) is the number three chemical maker in the United States. Analysts say DD's restructured business operations, which reduced its business units to five from eight, including an exit from the pharmaceutical and fibers business, should begin to produce results in 2008.
Ashland's value is hard to ignore
Ashland Inc. (NYSE: ASH) is a global, diversified chemical company that's involved in the plastic, resin/polymer, water treatment, and oil-change fields.
Analysts expect high-single-digit revenue growth for Ashland's water technology and Valvoline segments, but softer growth in performance materials and chemicals.
Further, a restructuring initiative is yielding cost reductions; margins remain adequate. Moreover, there is a sense that ASH's shares do not reflect the improving outlook in many of ASH's businesses, and ASH's p/e of 14 speaks to that undervaluation. The Reuters FY 2008/FY 2009 EPS consensus estimates for ASH are $3.19/$3.83.
Du Pont focuses on what's important: profitable operations
E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company (NYSE: DD) is the No. 3 chemical maker in the U.S. Analysts say DD's restructured business operations, which reduced its business units to 5 from 8, including an exit from the pharmaceutical and fibers business, should begin to produce results in 2008.
Analysts see 2008 revenue advancing about 5%-8%, after a 5-7% gain in 2007. DD's agriculture segment will continue to shine, with revenues increasing about 10-12%, aided by strong seed sales. Further, global chemical demand should offset softness in the U.S. The Reuters FY 2007/FY 2008 EPS consensus estimates for DD are $3.19 to $3.41.
Continue reading Du Pont focuses on what's important: profitable operations
Sasol Ltd. (SSL): Always in demand
In a world that's dependent on natural gas and eager for efficient ways to ship it, a company like South African-based Sasol Ltd (NYSE: SSL) will always be in demand. As a leader in the field of converting gas to diesel liquid (it also excels at converting coal to liquid), Sasol should always be a solid pick at the right price, especially since the company balances its risk in the cyclical energy markets with its chemical division, which produces a wide range of chemicals for industrial processes.There are risks for a company like SSL beyond the cyclical nature of the energy markets. The company also faces competition from the growing popularity of liquefied natural gas. It can also suffer from unanticipated work stoppages, as happened for 40 days at one of its plants in the first half of 2007, forcing SSL to purchase synthetic fuels from third parties to fulfill its contracts, which cut into margins. If there are worldwide slowdowns in construction and other industries, there may be a slackening demand for both of SSL's divisions.
But I think SSL's integrated and diversified structure will protect it against any serious downside, and I'm impressed with a recent Bear Stearns report that predicted SSL will have a strong second half of 2007, driven mostly by improving sales in its chemical division, along with stronger margins created by recent technological developments that increase efficiency and should lower raw-material costs. The analyst predicted the fuels division would stay flat, but that this would be offset by the chemicals division. SSL will also benefit from a law passed in early August in South Africa that will protect SSL and other energy companies from any windfall taxes.
The Bear Stearns report predicted this stock to hit $50 in 2008; that's a gain of 25%, which may be ambitious, but I agree this company has room to grow, and the 2% dividend doesn't hurt either.
Type of Stock: A South African company specializing in fuel and chemical technologies.
Price Target: If the Bear Stearns report is correct, this stock is a solid buy at its current price near $40. But this stock can be volatile, and you might want to wait and see if you can grab it around $38 or even lower.
Hilary Kramer is a financial editor and money coach for AOL and an authority on investing. Visit her at www.hilarykramer.com.



