Oil rose over $137 Monday after traders calculated that Saudi Arabia's announced production increase will not be able to replace production disruptions in Nigeria, Bloomberg News reported.
Oil rose $2.20 to $137.56 per barrel in Monday mid-day trading. The other major energy commodities also rose on the news. Heating oil jumped 8 cents to $3.85 per gallon, unleaded gasoline gained about 4 cents to $3.47 per gallon, and natural gas climbed about 23 cents to $13.22 per million BTUs.
Attacks on a Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) platform and a Chevron (NYSE: CVX) pipeline last week halted production of 300,000 barrels of oil per day from Nigeria, Bloomberg News reported. The Nigerian unrest easily offset Saudi Arabia's announcement, at the Jeddah summit it hosted, that it would pump an additional 200,000 barrels per day. Oil's 'safety cushion' is low
Jim Dietz, independent energy trader, told BloggingStocks Monday, a weak dollar and speculator long positions have been factors in oil's more than 4-year bull market, but the No. 1 factor, in his interpretation, is the low 'safety cushion' between daily global oil supply and demand.
Standard Oil (1870 - 1911) was the dominant oil company in the world until it was felled by the Sherman Anti-Trust Act of 1890. John D. Rockefeller was a business genius of the first order. He used his control over train routes and refineries to buy up oil wells and block competitors from taking market share.
Thanks to journalist Ida Tarbell, Rockefeller's rough business tactics got plenty of publicity. In 1911, the Supreme Court ruled that Standard Oil had violated the Sherman Anti-Trust Act through its tactics of using low prices to wipe out competitors. The result, as chronicled in one of my favorite books, Ron Chernow's Titan, was a breakup of the company into what is now Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP).
The lesson: What didn't kill Standard Oil made its offspring stronger.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the companies could deliver money to shareholders without sacrificing growth.
What happens if the oil companies start actually recognizing their good fortune -- their sustainable good fortune -- and start boosting dividends the way that Tidewater (NYSE: TDW) (Cramer's Take) did last week with its 67% hike.
Throughout this great run with oil and gas, it seems that the companies themselves haven't caught up with the good fortune. They haven't spent that much on drilling relative to profits, and they have chosen to buy a lot of stock back, never bad. But what if they start returning the profits to shareholders in the form of dividends?
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Syneron Medical, Cellcom Israel, GATX Corp and TNS, Inc were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Merriman upgraded shares of Syneron Medical (NASDAQ:ELOS) to Buy from Neutral following the Q1 results to reflect the introduction of LipoLite and the company's global distribution channel. They believe shares can trade towards the $22-$26 level.
Jefferies upgraded Cellcom Israel (NYSE:CEL) to Buy from Hold following the company's Q1 results to reflect its improved EBITDA outlook.
Morgan Keegan upgraded GATX (NYSE:GMT) to Outperform from Market Perform as they believe the company has increased opportunities to deploy capital given the current state of the market for railcars, which should result in share outperformance.
Suntrust raised TNS, Inc (NYSE:TNS) to Buy from Neutral citing improved execution and the global shift towards electronic transactions.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Chevron (NYSE:CVX) was raised at UBS to Buy from Neutral.
Readers of this space know that one of the preferred sectors has been the oil/oil services sector. Further, with oil now well above $110 per barrel, one may think that all of the affordable oil plays have been bid up. Indeed, most have, but not Chevron.
Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) is the third-largest integrated oil company in the United States.
Chevron's organic reserve replacement, excluding Canadian oil sands, is sub-par, but just about every other dimension of CVX's operation rates good to strong.
Chevron's most attractive dimension? CVX has the equivalent of 'the facilities of significance' in an oil-challenged world, and especially in a gasoline-challenged United States: 22 fuel refineries, to go along with 2 asphalt plants, for a total refining capacity of 2.21 million barrels per day. Almost half of that fuel refining is based in the United States.
According to senior industry sources, the Financial Times reported that the Ministry of Defense could ask General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE: GD) to provide the vehicle design for a new generation of armored vehicles for the army. It is unclear whether General Dynamics, in competition with Nexter and Artec, will be awarded the contract or will be named the preferred bidder.
Following the collapse in March of The Bear Stearns Companies Inc (NYSE: BSC), the Financial Times also reported that the SEC will soon require Wall Street banks to publicly disclose more details about liquidity and capital positions. Cox also urged lawmakers to pass legislation that would allow the SEC, or another regulator, the "explicit mandate to supervise" investment banks.
OTHER PAPERS:
According to the New York Times, Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) will move senior investment banker Alberto Verme to Dubai by the end of the month in the hopes of establishing a stronger foothold in the region, a crucial area for global banks.
The New York Times also reported that several large oil companies, including BP Plc (NYSE: BP), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX), agreed to pay nearly $423M in cash in order to settle a lawsuit that alleged water contamination from methyl tertiary butyl ether, a gasoline additive. Under the terms of the deal, the oil giants also agreed to pay 70% of the future cleanup costs for the next 30 years. Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) and several other companies named in the suit did not agree to the deal.
After hitting a one-year high of $95.50 in September, the stock hit a one-year low of $76.40 in January. This morning, CVX opened at $93.88. So far today the stock has hit a low of $92.69 and a high of $93.99. As of 10:10, CVX is trading at $92.69, down $1.79 (-1.9%). The chart for CVX looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $105 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in two months as long as CVX is below $105 at June expiration. Chevron would have to rise by more than 13% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
CVX hasn't been above $96 at all in the past year and has shown resistance around $95 recently. This trade could be risky if the price of oil skyrockets again, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance CVX might find around $95, where it has topped out twice before in the past year. Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in CVX.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Garmin, Thomson Reuters and Heritage-Crystal Clean were today's noteworthy initiations:
Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) was initiated with a Neutral rating at JP Morgan. The firm sees risk to 2008 Street estimates given the consumer slowdown in the U.S. and potential ASP and margin pressure as channel inventory is worked down.
Morgan Stanley assumed Thomson Reuters (NASDAQ: TRIN) with an Underweight rating and expects revenue growth in the company's financial business to slow sharply into 2009.
William Blair believes Heritage-Crystal Clean (NASDAQ: HCCI) has the opportunity to gain market share over the next several years as a result of its differentiated parts-cleaning programs, strong sales organization, and experienced management team. Shares were assumed with an Outperform rating.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Lehman initiated Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) and Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: JAVA) with Equal Weight ratings and targets of $20 and $17 and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), IBM Corp (NYSE: IBM) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) with Overweight ratings and targets of $195, $144 and $59, respectively.
Pacific Growth started Spectranetics (NASDAQ: SPNC) with a Neutral rating.
Merrill reinstated Chevron (NYSE: CVX), ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and Hess Corp (NYSE: HES) with Buy ratings and price targets of $110, $105 and $125, respectively.
Venezuela has started collecting its new foreign oil companies windfall profits tax, as part of President Hugo Chavez' plan to gain a larger share of oil company profits, The Associated Press reported.
The tax is based on the monthly average price of benchmark Brent crude oil. The tax kicks in when the price of benchmark Brent crude sits above $70 per barrel, The Wall Street Journal(subscription required) reported. If oil prices remain above that threshold for one month, the state will take 50% of the difference between this average and the final sale price of every barrel. When Brent crude exceeds the $100-a-barrel average, the rate will rises to 60%.
'21st-century socialism'
President Chavez, a Socialist, has said the tax is necessary to fund key social programs as part of his effort to implement an economic and social system he calls "21st-century socialism." Critics say the tax will slow investment and development in the oil sector, and also discourage other foreign direct investment in Venezuela.
Executives from the top three American oil companies -- Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) -- will be present at today's hearing, as well as executives from BP (NYSE: BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A). While the executives are predictably going to blame the current high gasoline prices on surging oil, it will still be interesting to see just how hard lawmakers hit the executives.
For the executives, it can't be a good feeling to be walking into today's hearing. The hearing is being called "Drilling for Answers: Oil Company Profits, Runaway Prices and the Pursuit of Alternatives." The hearings will be chaired by Rep. Ed Markey of Massachusetts, who in the past has been a vocal critic of the oil industry.
Among the companies reporting earnings on Friday were Gannett Inc. (NYSE: GCI), the largest newspaper publisher in the United States, and Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) the second-largest U.S. oil company.
Gannett reported fourth-quarter earnings down 31% on falling revenue from newspaper and broadcast ad sales. Earnings fell to $245.3 million, or $1.06 per share, for the three months ending December 31, from $353.5 million, or $1.51 per share, in the year-ago period. Excluding a one-time charge, profit was $1.28 per share. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had expected net income of $1.27 per share. Quarterly revenue fell 12% to $1.9 billion from $2.2 billion in the 2006 fourth quarter. Analysts forecast sales of $1.98 billion.
For all of 2007, Gannett earned $1.06 billion, or $4.52 per share, down from $1.16 billion, or $4.90 a share, in 2006. Analysts had expected $4.42 per share. Revenue fell to $7.4 billion from $7.85 billion in 2006.
Gannett shares rose 1.46% on Friday, closing at $37.47. That's up from 52-week low of $31.97 in early January.
Chevronmissed earnings expectations in the past two quarters. When it reported third-quarter results back in November, its earnings per share of $1.97 missed the consensus estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial by ten cents. Earnings were $2.29 per share in the same period of the previous year. For the current quarter, analysts expect earnings of $2.24 per share, or $8.36 per share for the full year. That's up from $7.93 for 2006.
Chevron's 29.1% earnings per share growth forecast for the next three to five years is a bit more than the industry average, as well as the S&P 500. The analysts' consensus recommendation is to hold Chevron. Shares are down from the 52-week high of $95.50 back in September, and closed Thursday at $83.22.
For oil prices and other news that could influence the earnings results, see BloggingStocks' Chevron coverage.
The Washington Post reported over the weekend that the CIA had warned U.S. utilities of the possibility of attacks, or threats with extortion demands, via the internet. At a conference in New Orleans attended by security officials from governments, utilities, and companies such as Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) and BP (NYSE: BP), a cybersecurity analyst broke with CIA disclosure polices to detail several recent cyber intrusions outside the United States, one case resulting in a power outage that affected several cities.
Increasingly sophisticated intrusions into corporate computer systems have cost companies worldwide more than $20 billion each year, according to some estimates. And extortion is a growing threat, with attackers radically increasing their take from online gambling sites, e-commerce sites, and banks, which pay up to prevent their sites from being shut down and to avoid public knowledge their sites have been hacked.
With the rising tide of cyber attacks on the infrastructure over the past year or so, and the vulnerability of the power grid, transportation systems, and big banks becoming increasingly clear, investors have to wonder how secure the exchanges are from extortion or efforts to manipulate the markets by individuals or organized groups. The London Stock Exchange suffered a cyber attack this past June. Such attacks frequently originate from overseas, sometimes supported by foreign governments, and perpetrators can be next to impossible to track down and bring to justice.