Continue reading Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks Q1 Review -- A Platform for Success

Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks Q1 Review -- A Platform for Success originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Apr 2011 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst Upgrades

• Exxon Mobil (XOM), Netflix (NFLX), Noble Corp. (NE), Pioneer Natural (PXD) and Noble Energy (NBL) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Cenovus Energy (CVE) to conviction buy from neutral and Atwood Oceanics (ATW) to neutral from sell at Goldman as well.
• Southern Company (SO) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Chevron (CVX) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Ryder (R), Entergy (ETR) and Seaspan (SSW) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Gerdau (GGB), Crown Castle (CCI) and American Tower (AMT) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Aon (AON) and Willis Group (WSH) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• Ryland Group (RYL) to buy from neutral at Ticonderoga.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: AON, CVX, HBI, MUR, NBL, NFLX, NVDA, SO, XOM ...

Analyst Calls: AON, CVX, HBI, MUR, NBL, NFLX, NVDA, SO, XOM ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 15 Mar 2011 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Rising Costs and Political Tensions Could Weigh on Exxon Mobil

Rising Costs and Political Tensions Could Weigh on Exxon Mobil originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 10 Mar 2011 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Chevron Corporation (CVX) is one of the largest energy companies in the world, engaging in a variety of businesses like exploration & production of oil and natural gas as well as refining, transportation and trading. The company competes with other established oil producers like ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP), BP (BP) and Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC).

Our price estimate for Chevron stands at $104, which is in line with market price.

Continue reading Chevron's Move to Exit Coal Mining Makes Sense

Chevron's Move to Exit Coal Mining Makes Sense originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 09 Mar 2011 16:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

If you haven't already, now may be a good time to consider taking some profits of the table with Chevron Corp. (CVX). However, investors who can tolerate the risk can maintain their full position in CVX and go for an even bigger gain, as the company's shares are headed north.

I first discussed Chevron here on February 15, 2009, at a price of $66.18. Chevron's shares have raced through $90 resistance this winter and are set to test major psychological resistance at $100.

Continue reading Chevron Is in an Uptrend

Chevron Is in an Uptrend originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 14 Feb 2011 12:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2011 Picks Dust the S&P

Chasing Value: 2011 Picks Dust the S&P originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 Feb 2011 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

A little over a week ago the chart players took short positions in the oil sector. Since then the world has changed dramatically.

Egypt is engulfed in a civil uprising and protesters are clamoring for President Hosni Mubarak to step down. Uncertainty is the new state of affairs. Uncertainty breeds fear and fear has taken over the energy sector.

The chart guys quickly covered their shorts and now the bulls have the market. This is fundamental. Three million barrels of oil a day pass through the Suez Canal and the Sumed pipeline. You can throw the charts out the window.

Continue reading Brent Crude Oil Holds Above $100 per Barrel

Brent Crude Oil Holds Above $100 per Barrel originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 Feb 2011 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

With earnings season in full swing, the FOMC meeting on interest rates, the GDP estimate, and housing numbers due out, the coming week is shaping up to be a busy one. So here's a peek at what's on the economic calendar.

Monday

Quarterly reports from American Express (AXP) and McDonald's (MCD) will highlight Monday. Amgen (AMGN), CSX (CSX), Halliburton (HAL) and Texas Instruments (TXN) are also expected to report strong earnings results.

Continue reading Week in Preview: GDP, FOMC Meeting, Housing Data and Lots of Earnings

Week in Preview: GDP, FOMC Meeting, Housing Data and Lots of Earnings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 23 Jan 2011 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I have already gone on record this year saying that financial companies and insurance stocks are going to continue to rebound. In my previous two posts Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11 and Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 6, 7, 8, 9, I included several financial institutions. Today I add an insurance company.

The industry got whacked hard for many reasons. For one, it makes a significant amount of profit by investing its float, and like every other investor, the industry lost a pile of money in the financial crisis. It was embroiled more directly than some industries, as several insurers are affiliated with banks. Finally the housing crisis meant disruption to payment streams by homeowners who were delinquent on more than their mortgages.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 10 and 11

Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 10 and 11 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 10 Jan 2011 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is the fifth year that I am posting my stock picks for the year. There is a lot of foolishness in doing so because each year that I have made such suggestions, including 2009 when I owned all of the picks, it is assumed that I would hold all of the positions without responding to market conditions, or changes in the specific company. No adding to, or cutting a position. This is not the real world.

It is not possible for everything to remain static. For example, you might find that you hold a stock that made a great run through three quarters, beyond your wildest expectations, and decide it has passed a point where the metrics cannot support anything close to the price. Under normal circumstances you might sell it, except you cannot. By the end of the year the profit you might have realized fades away and you end up reporting on something that is not a true measure of your objective strategy. Nevertheless, once again I will stick with this approach because this seems to be how its done in every publication's annual picks. This year there are eleven.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11

Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 05 Jan 2011 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Oil recently traded at $91.00 per barrel and many analysts are looking for $100 per barrel. Against that backdrop, global oil companies are ramping up exploration to record levels for 2011.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Barclays (BCS) estimates that spending on new wells, producing platforms and other energy infrastructure will total $490 billion in 2011, an increase of 11%.

Continue reading Rising Oil Prices Prompt Record Spending on Exploration

Rising Oil Prices Prompt Record Spending on Exploration originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 02 Jan 2011 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Could a stock that you made 1,100% on still have room to run? Yes, it is possible. In particular if it had a near death experience as a penny stock for a while.

That is the case with Newcastle Investments (NCT), the CMBS lender and real estate investment company that reached a recent high of $7.10 and has settled back down, most recently hovering between $6.70 to $7.00. It closed Thursday December 23 at $6.71.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- Part 2

Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- Part 2 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 27 Dec 2010 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The list of stocks has been whittled down to four. Chevron Corporation (CVX) made the cut to become the oil company stock. Three defense sector powerhouses are competing for one spot in Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- The Journey Begin.

Today we take a more comprehensive view returning to earlier metrics, and adding some other criteria in order to reach a conclusion. This series began with the contention that making specific predictions was a fools errand with the danger to your portfolio coming from "black swans". To try and add some general counter measures to this possibility I decided that the defense and oil sectors might provide protection against the greatest of threats, war and terrorism. On that basis I posted Chasing Value: You Must Own Defense and Oil for Safety.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Defense and Oil -- Part 4 Conclusion

Chasing Value: Defense and Oil -- Part 4 Conclusion originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 17 Dec 2010 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The list of stocks under consideration has been reduced from eleven to ten, to seven and now in today's story four. Starting with five major defense contractors and six major oil companies (see Chasing Value: You Must Own Defense and Oil for Safety), I began a search to find one stock in each sector that might be suitable for inclusion in my list of 2011 stock picks posted last week Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- The Journey Begin.

Today we continue our analysis by examining return on equity (ROE), return on invested capital (ROIC), and price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG). Each stock is ranked by sector and metric from best to worst. Sometimes there are clear winners and others there is little to separate one stock from the next. However, in total, a picture can be drawn that does portray a superior opportunity.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Defense and Oil -- Part 3

Chasing Value: Defense and Oil -- Part 3 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 16 Dec 2010 12:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This series started with five major defense contractors and six major oil companies that are worthy considerations to help your portfolio survive a global crisis (see Chasing Value: You Must Own Defense and Oil for Safety). After the first review, one stock was eliminated from consideration: Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR). The reason is in the first story.

Today we continue our analysis by examining price-to-book (P/B), price-to-cash-flow (P/CF), and dividend yield. Each stock is ranked by sector and metric from best to worst. In the end we hope to narrow down our choices for candidates that might be added to Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- The Journey Begins.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Defense and Oil -- Part 2

Chasing Value: Defense and Oil -- Part 2 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 15 Dec 2010 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Chasing Value: You Must Own Defense and Oil for Safety

Chasing Value: You Must Own Defense and Oil for Safety originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 14 Dec 2010 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Chevron's (CVX) shares, first discussed here on February 15, 2009, at a price of $66.18, burst higher this fall, finally ending a long period of doldrums and volatility that many refiners displayed during the gasoline demand slump.

In fact, with CVX testing $88, now may be a good time to consider taking some profits off the table with Chevron.

Further, assuming no more irregular events (such as oil spills) in the oil sector, look for Chevron's production to increase from its current 2.75 million barrels per day (bpd) by about 2% to 2.5% per year through 2012. Meanwhile, its reserve replacement rate remains adequate.

Continue reading Chevron: Time to Take Some Profits off the Table?

Chevron: Time to Take Some Profits off the Table? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 23 Nov 2010 14:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst Upgrades

• Verisk (VRSK) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Marriott (MAR) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Bernstein.
• Jefferies upgraded Teekay (TK) and Tsakos Energy (TNP) to Buy from Hold.
• Cadence Design (CDNS) was upgraded to sector perform from underperform at RBC Capital.
• BofA/Merrill upgraded NV Energy (NVE) to buy from underperform and Education Realty Trust (EDR) to neutral from underperform.
• Men's Wearhouse (MW) was upgraded to buy from hold at Stifel.
• William Blair upgraded Atheros (ATHR) to outperform from market perform.
• Freeport McMoran (FCX) was upgraded to buy from hold at Argus.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: CTV, CVX, EAT, FCX, ICE, MAR, MW, TRV, WLP ...

Analyst Calls: CTV, CVX, EAT, FCX, ICE, MAR, MW, TRV, WLP ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 26 Oct 2010 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The earnings crunch continues this week, and analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are anticipating lots of strong quarterly reports.

For example, year-over-year earnings growth from big oil Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), ExxonMobil (XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) are expected to be in double digits. The same is true of many other energy and mining concerns reporting this week: Allegheny Technologies (ATI), Alliant Energy (LNT), Arch Coal (ACI), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), CMS Energy (CMS), CONSOL Energy (CNX), DPL (DPL), Hess Corp. (HES), Minerals Technologies (MTX), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), PPL Corp. (PPL), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Total (TOT), Whiting Petroleum (WLL), Williams Companies (WMB) and Wisconsin Energy (WEC).

Continue reading Week in Preview: The Earnings Crunch Rolls On (MSFT, COP, V)

Week in Preview: The Earnings Crunch Rolls On (MSFT, COP, V) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 24 Oct 2010 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It is unbelievable! Then again, maybe it's not. 24/7 Wall St. is reporting that a German company is planning to install vending machines in the U.S. that sell gold.

It was only yesterday that I cautioned investors about the overexuberance in the gold market and now that is being raised to a new level. This not only exemplifies my concerns for new investors into the precious metal, but also is strong evidence that retail investors and water-cooler chatter have pushed their way into the market. Gold being sold in vending machines by gold promoters is specifically taking advantage of the foolish retail crowd.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Fool's Gold in Vending Machines

Chasing Value: Fool's Gold in Vending Machines originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 28 Sep 2010 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.