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Copper Sets Record $10,000 a Metric Ton

copper manufactureThe world is screaming for copper. Demand from China, the U.S. and Europe is pushing prices to all-time highs. London copper traded at $10,000 a metric ton. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper hit $.4.58 a pound, as reported in the Wall Street Journal.

Traders are looking for "five dollar copper," which would push London's price to $11,000 per metric ton. Goldman Sachs (GS) forecasts that copper will average $10,230 a metric ton in 2011, up 15%. It warned that new mine capacity will not come to market for at least two years.

Continue reading Copper Sets Record $10,000 a Metric Ton

Three Booming Latin America Banks

The financial sector has been a strange double-edged sword in portfolios over the past two years or so. In the wake of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, billions of wealth was erased in what were long thought of as conservative stocks. Then the resurgence of some banks since the lows of last year made other investors a fortune, with Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) both soaring about 300% since historic lows on March 9, 2009.

The drama continues in the financial sector even now with the endless see-saw of mortgage default news and the continued worries over sovereign debt in the eurozone. Any investor jumping into financial stocks right now is really taking the tiger by the tail -- but if you do your homework, there a number of opportunities in the sector become clear -- particularly among financials in Latin America.

Continue reading Three Booming Latin America Banks

Q1 Cats Likely to Have Reinsurance Earnings Impact

After weeks of speculation, the financial damage from the Chile earthquake and Windstorm Xynthia in Europe is starting to emerge. According to a recent report by Moody's, 16 global reinsurance companies have reported their net insured losses (before taxes) from the catastrophe event, and the damage has already reached $3.5 billion, increasing an already high tally. The firm expects these events to have a noticeable impact on first quarter results for the industry.

According to the report, the first quarter of 2010's results "will have many moving pieces, including the possibility of favorable loss reserve development." It continues, though, that "we would expect a number of reinsurers to post both operating and net losses for the quarter."

Continue reading Q1 Cats Likely to Have Reinsurance Earnings Impact

Assessing the Tab for Q1 Catastrophes

Catastrophe modelers, insurers and reinsurers are still sorting out the damage from Windstorm Xynthia in Europe and the earthquake in Chile. Taking only the highest of high-end estimates, the damage from these two catastrophes could exceed $12 billion, resulting in fairly steep property-catastrophe losses long before hurricane season begins. With three more major property reinsurance renewals remaining for the year -- at April 1, June 1 (Florida) and July 1 -- there is plenty of time for the impact of these events to be absorbed into reinsurance pricing.

Continue reading Assessing the Tab for Q1 Catastrophes

Munich Re Profit Surges by More Than 60%

When 2008 ended on a sour note, the reinsurance industry looked to 2009 with trepidation. Since the financial crisis struck late in the third quarter of 2008, it was clear at the time that the effects would spill over into the following year, though signs of stability in the reinsurance market left reason for hope. Now, we're looking back on the year that was, for 2009, rather than the one to come, and Munich Re (0KFE) is putting it in the "win" column. The reinsurer logged a bottom-line result of €2.56 billion, up profoundly from €1.58 billion the year before. Munich Re has already announced that it's raising its dividend to €5.75 per share.

According to Nikolaus von Bomhard, Chairman of the Board of Management of Munich Re, "We have brought the financial year 2009 to a successful close: with a profit of over €2.5 billion, we were even able to surpass expectations and achieve our long-term return target despite the difficult environment."

Continue reading Munich Re Profit Surges by More Than 60%

No Surprise: Chile Leads to Reinsurance Rate Increase Debate

It was only a matter of time. Where there are catastrophe losses, there is talk of reinsurance rate increases.

In light of the high catastrophe losses from the Chilean earthquake, which could reach $8 billion, reinsurers are now signaling that they may try to raise rates at the next renewal. QBE Insurance (QBEIF) believes that rate increases may be necessary, as reinsurers try to recapture capital depleted by quake-related payouts.

Continue reading No Surprise: Chile Leads to Reinsurance Rate Increase Debate

2010 Catastrophe Losses Already Half Last Year's Total

February was an expensive month for the insurance industry, with a multibillion dollar price tag. It's easy to focus on the magnitude 8.8 earthquake in Chile, but there were other disasters, too. The Haiti earthquake added to the economic and insured losses and others that may not have claimed many headlines but did tick the cost to insurers and reinsurers higher. A new report by Aon Benfield (AON) runs through the damage caused in February, showing that the shortest month still found a way to be expensive.

The quake in Chile is estimated to have caused $2 billion to $8 billion in insured losses, to which you need to add $2.1 billion for Windstorm Xynthia, not to mention many eight-figure insured losses that will chip away at the industry's coffers. Haiti wasn't all that pricey, Aon says, because "insurance penetration is far greater than in Haiti."

Continue reading 2010 Catastrophe Losses Already Half Last Year's Total

Cat Bond Impact from Chile Unlikely, but Future to Change

Despite the magnitude of the recent earthquake in Chile – in both physical and financial terms – it's unlikely to trigger a catastrophe bond payout. Catastrophe modeling firms AIR Worldwide and EQECAT offer a range of estimated insured losses of $2 billion to $8 billion, though the dust is still settling. According to insurance securitization blog Artemis.bm, "A similar quake in the right area of the U.S. or Japan would most certainly have triggered a cat bond."

Though there has been cat bond activity in Latin America, none have been issued in the region to cover earthquake risk. Low rates of insurance penetration are likely to keep what will already be a costly situation for insurers and reinsurers from being even worse -- i.e., because not much coverage has been written in Chile.

Continue reading Cat Bond Impact from Chile Unlikely, but Future to Change

Chile Quake Losses to Top $2 Billion

Insured losses from the magnitude 8.8 earthquake in Chile will only account for a small fraction of total economic losses. According to catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide, insured losses will probably cross the $2 billion threshold, while total economic losses could exceed $15 million. EQECAT, another cat modeling firm, released a preliminary economic loss estimate of $10 million to $15 million.

The area affected by the earthquake, AIR says, has residential and commercial properties with an aggregate insured value of approximately $275 million. Residential insurance penetration could be as low as 10%, while the commercial insurance sector has far higher penetration, reported to be approximately 60%.

Continue reading Chile Quake Losses to Top $2 Billion

Chilean Earthquake Decimates More Than 10% of Its GDP

The earthquake that ripped through Chile left total economic damages estimated to range from $15 billion to $30 billion. The magnitude 8.8 quake impacted Santiago, where more than half the economic losses are said to have occurred, as well as the coastal area of Valparaiso and Vina del Mar, according to a report by catastrophe modeling firm EQECAT.

Based on the preliminary economic estimates, the impact of the disaster is equivalent to 10% to 15% of Chile's real GDP, and reconstruction costs are expected to be much higher than the stated losses, due to newer building standards that must be met. Damage to residential properties is expected to range from 55% to 65% of the total, with commercial damage accounting for 20% to 30% and industrial damage 15% to 20%, EQECAT says.

Insurance and reinsurance companies with risk in this region will be watching subsequent reports closely in order to gauge the impact on their portfolios.

PhoCusWright Sees Hotel Industry Strength in Latin America

The hotel market may be straining in the United States and Europe under the weight of new capacity financed during the real estate boom, but the situation is much different in Latin America.

According to travel industry research firm PhoCusWright, international, regional and independent hotels are popping up all over the continent, with both large and small projects in the works to tap into growing demand in the region. In the cities, where it's tough to find real estate, old neighborhoods are "reinventing themselves," PhoCusWright reports, in order to take advantage of the market's potential.

Continue reading PhoCusWright Sees Hotel Industry Strength in Latin America

Mexican mining firm finds a huge lithium deposit

What is lithium? It is a soft, silver-white metal that is a good conductor of both heat and electricity. Because of these properties, lithium is used in the manufacture of lithium-ion batteries. Lithium batteries generate 3 volts of electricity, compared to 1.5 volts for lead/acid or zinc cells.

Lithium is used primarily in the manufacture of car batteries for hybrid cars. These cars are becoming more popular, with the major domestic and foreign car makers using lithium batteries. Hence, lithium has become a highly sought-after commodity.

Continue reading Mexican mining firm finds a huge lithium deposit

Hot prospects for Chile (ECH)

"Resource-rich, politically stable and increasingly prosperous, Chile is an attractive play on commodities and growing wealth in emerging markets," explains Mark Salzinger, editor of The Investor's ETF Report.

Chile is also a favorite investment position of Nicholas Vardy, editor of The Global Bull Market Alert, who notes, "Thanks to its fiscal prudence, its lack of a domestic housing bubble, and its sizeable wealth reserves, Chile has weathered the current global economic meltdown better than most countries."

Here, the two advisors assess the longer-term opportunity in iShares MSCI Chile (NYSE: ECH), an exchange-traded fund.

Continue reading Hot prospects for Chile (ECH)

Wal-Mart makes bid for Chile's largest grocer

With its financial performance and stock price a rare bright spot in a world where most retailers are hitting 52-week lows, Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) is getting aggressive on the acquisition front - something that hasn't historically been part of the company's growth plan until it started its overseas expansion.

On Friday, Wal-Mart made a cash tender offer to acquire Distribución y Servicio D&S SA (NYSE: DYS), the largest grocery store chain in Chile. If all of the company's shares are tendered, which is unlikely, the deal would be valued at $2.8 billion. The company's largest shareholder, the Ibanez family, which owns a controlling stake, has already agreed to tender 23% of its shares as part of a plan to allow the company to continue to operate with its current management. Wal-Mart reserves the right to withdraw its tender offer if it is unable to lock up at least a 50% stake in the company.

Wal-Mart's strategy for its grand entrances into new markets has been to acquire a leading retail chain to begin the effort with strong market share and gain the confidence of locals.

In a press release announcing the offer, Michael Duke, Wal-Mart's vice chairman explained the move: "Moving into Chile is an important step in implementing Wal-Mart International's strategy. We continue to focus on portfolio optimization, global leverage and winning in every market. A successful tender offer will give Wal-Mart the opportunity to be a significant participant in Chile, which continues to have a strong and growing economy among South America countries."

Should the U.S. adopt the Chilean pension system?

Long hailed by free market economists as the model for how to create a pension system, news out of Chile that it plans on making payouts to low income seniors, has government interventionists jumping for joy.

The AP writes:
The new $2 billion-a-year program will expand public pensions to groups left out by private pensions - the poor and self-employed, housewives, street vendors and farmers who saved little for retirement - granting about a quarter of the nation's work force public pensions by 2012.

The fact is that this move is the way that governments should generally function. Stay out of things unless there is a real need to do something. No one is of the opinion that low income seniors should be thrown out into the street. Of course they should be helped. I would rather see the community take care of them and set up a network of charity, but if that doesn't work, then the government should step in.

What government interventionists miss is just how successful the 1981 pension reform has been.

Continue reading Should the U.S. adopt the Chilean pension system?

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Last updated: February 11, 2012: 05:13 AM

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