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'Ultimate defensive' global portfolio

Based in London, Nick Vardy is among the leading international stock experts. The editor of The Global Bull Market Alert has created a package of stocks called the "Ultimate Defensive Global Bull Market Alert" Portfolio -- using ETFs to go short on China and the British pound while simultaneously going long on agriculture and the yen.

"UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (ASE: FXP) has been a hero during market weakness. While the market's current focus is on the exposure of Chinese banks to U.S. subprime loans, the real issue in Chinese banks is their own bad loans to state-owned enterprises. China has a long way to fall.

"Short the CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust (NYSE: FXB). With the U.K.'s fundamentals perhaps weaker than the United States, the U.K. currency should continue to weaken over the coming months.

"PowerShares DB Agriculture (NYSE: DBA) invests in some of the most liquid and widely traded agricultural commodities, corn, wheat, soy beans and sugar.

"Buy the Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE: FXY). The yen zigs when the rest of the market zags. A position in the Yen won't knock your socks off in terms of performance. But it will hold up well in times of turmoil and appreciate steadily as the 'carry trade' unwinds.

"A word of warning: This is a 'defensive' global portfolio that will hold up the best during periods of negative market sentiment. But understand that this is also the part of the portfolio that will underperform -- perhaps significantly -- on any 'relief rally' in the markets."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Top Picks 2007: Chartwell charts ETF path to China

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

ishares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (NYSE: FXI ), an exchange-traded fund, is the top speculative pick for 2007 from ETF expert Carl Delfeld, editor of the Chartwell ETF Advisor.

"The FTSE/Xinhua China 25 index was launched in October 2004 and has risen 55.7% year to date. The biggest sector weightings are financial services 35%, telecom 22%, energy 20%, and industrial materials 12%. China Mobile is the biggest holding at around 11% of assets; PetroChina and China Life Insurance are other strong contributors.

"While no fan of state-owned companies, I do see the argument that the Chinese government is likely to protect its 'crown jewels' and that, with the 2008 Olympics approaching, attention on China will increase commensurately. My advice for speculative investors is to buy this exchange-traded fund and maintain a 10% trailing stop loss."

To see Carl's favorite conservative idea for 2007, click here.

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