Retailers expect a strong turnout on Black Friday this year, but they are careful to explain that it doesn't guarantee a winning holiday shopping season.

Consumers are being lured by good deals and special promotions, and Black Friday specials have been leaked earlier than usual this year in the hopes of generating some buzz. The retail sector needs it. Last year's holiday season was the worst in decades, thanks to the financial crisis. This year, the survivors will benefit from fewer competitors chasing the same consumer dollars.

Take the Nook off your Christmas list. The new e-reader from Barnes & Noble (BKS) has already sold out, and more won't be available until after the holiday has passed. The next batch will be available, at best, by January 4, 2010.

In a statement, the company said, "While we increased production based on the high consumer interest, we've sold out of our initial Nook allotment available for delivery before the holidays." If you still want to give the device as a holiday gift, Barnes & Noble will give you a gift certificate to tide the recipient over until the device itself comes around.

The price at the cash register ticked higher in October, though it was driven by the cost at the pump and on the lot.

Energy prices and new car sales (the highest in 28 years) pushed consumer prices upward in October, they're still cheaper than they were a year earlier. The Labor Department reports that consumer prices edged up 0.3% last month, a tad higher than the 0.2% anticipated. Take food and energy out of the equation, and inflation rose 0.2%, again ahead of the 0.1% that analysts expected.

No, don't expect to see windmills and solar panels -- consumers are leaning toward a different kind of green this holiday season: cash. Rather than hit their credit cards, shoppers will only be spending money they have (and can see and touch). Seventy-one percent of consumers are looking to cash and debit cards as their primary form of payment for holiday shopping this year, which the National Retail Foundation pegs as the highest level since 2005.

This could be a problem for the retailers.

Sure, you'd think that the merchant fees on credit cards make cash more attractive to the sellers. But, Ellen Davis, a spokesperson for the NRF, says that most retailers have found they can talk credit card buyers into up-sells more easily. That leads to a bigger basket size and more revenue. Done successfully, it should comfortably absorb the impact of merchant fees. James Roberts, a marketing professor at Baylor University, adds that using plastic makes consumers more likely to buy at all, let alone more.

Joining the ranks of Tickle-Me Elmo, Cabbage Patch Kids, and the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles ... behold, the Zhu Zhu Pets. These robotic rodents are expected to be the most in-demand toy for the 2009 holiday shopping season.

The five battery-operated hamsters respond to touch with 40 different sounds, and can also run around when set in "explore" mode. It's all the fun of having a pet without the messy clean-up duty.

Parents, you have Cepia LLC, a small company in St. Louis, to thank for these critters. The firm is hoping to ship between 4 million and 5 million pets by the end of the year (banking $300 million to $400 million in sales), but admits they cannot keep up with the demand. Cepia has grand plans, however, for the next part of the Zhu Zhu universe, hoping to roll out hedgehogs, rabbits, and other furry robot friends in the next year or so.

If Amazon (AMZN) was comfortable with its spot atop the e-reader market, it just got a wakeup call from Barnes & Noble (BKS). The brick-and-mortar book retailer's e-reader, the Nook, which hasn't even hit stores yet, is in pre-order nirvana right now. The first run for the Nook occurred at the end of October (the product was introduced on October 20). These buyers were told the reader would ship on November 30. High demand resulted in backorders, so the next wave of pre-orders was scheduled to ship on December 7. Now, a third group will have to wait until December 11.

This product is on fire, and it still isn't even on shelves yet.

Mary Ellen Keating, a spokeswoman for Barnes & Noble wouldn't reveal how many of these devices have been pre-ordered, but she did say, "Demand for the product in our stores and online has surpassed our expectations." She also noted, "We are working hard to meet demand for the holidays."

Consumer spending had its largest fall this year, thanks to the end of the "Cash for Clunkers" program. And, incomes were flat. No change to the money coming in and a drop in the cash going out translates to an impediment to economic recovery.

In September, consumer spending fell 0.5%, the first decline in five months and the worst in nine. Wages and salaries dropped 0.2%, effectively offsetting the 0.2% up-tick in August. The economy did grow in the third quarter of 2009, hinting that the worst recession in 70 years may be coming to a close, but the tough September suggests we still have some work in front of us.

The new Neiman Marcus Christmas Book looks a bit different this year. Yes, it's still geared toward the typical Neiman clientele, but it reflects the fact that the usual customers may not be doing as well -- or spending as much -- this year as they did last year. The retailer is facing the fact that it will have to sell lower-priced items this Christmas, because that's what the public will have to buy (even the wealthy corner of the public).

Close to half the gifts listed in the 83rd edition of the Neiman Christmas catalog cost less than $250, and some of them are actually practical (though a bit pricey for most people). In the past, the number of gifts at this price-point would be in the 30% to 40% range.

America's second-largest retailer, Target (NYSE: TGT), announced second-quarter earnings this morning.

The discount retailer saw second-quarter earnings drop 6.4%, which was less than what the Street expected. For the quarter, Target earned 79 cents per share; down three cents from a year earlier but far better than the expected 66 cents per share.

Target was hurt by wary consumers who were less than willing to part with money on apparel and other "nonessential items." Target's CEO attributed the strong results to "very strong operating margin in our retail segment, and credit card segment performance in line with expectations."

Retail giant Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) reported second-quarter earnings this morning, saying they fell 3% due to higher expenses. Despite the drop, KSS managed to top expectations with the latest results.

KSS pulled in 75 cents per share for the quarter, a penny better than what the Street expected. Quarterly sales increased 2% in the quarter, rising to $3.81 billion and beating expectations of $3.79 billion in sales, but unfortunately, same-store sales dropped 2.3%. Looking ahead, KSS forecast full-year earnings of $2.59 to $2.70 per share, up a great deal from its earlier forecast of $2.19 to $2.42 per share. Still, the upper end of the new forecast range is still eight cents shy of the Street's expectations.

With two young children I am reacquainting myself with the holiday cartoon classics. One of my favorites is A Charlie Brown Christmas, where Charlie is ridiculed for the half-dead tree with a few scraggly branches that he picks out a for the holiday production.

We are all living the Charlie Brown Christmas this year, and making due with less. Most people are cutting back on their holiday shopping as they adjust to the slowing economy and higher unemployment.

Frankly, it is a nice change of pace. That said, our reduced spending is, in a sad way, making matters worse.

Companies are retreating en masse, with many reducing or eliminating guidance. It's brutal out there.

The latest victim is video game maker Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS).

Although there is no must-have buy this season, video games were thought to be attractive for those looking for cheap entertainment. Apparently, that's not the case.

Yesterday, ERTS issued a warning to investors. The company said it now expects to miss already reduced guidance for the fiscal year ending in March. Things have gotten so bad that ERTS is not offering any specifics.

December is a critical month for retailers - the holiday season is the busiest shopping time, and a large chunk of bottom-line profits is booked in the final month of the calendar year. In 2006, December sales accounted for about 15% of all sales for the retailing sector. But December 2007, as many were predicting, may be one of the worst Decembers this decade.

Tomorrow, same-store sales for this critical month will hit the Street and the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) is expecting an overall gain of 1% among stores open at least a year. This is below the ICSC's earlier estimate of 1.5% and compares to a year-ago jump of 3.3%. If this estimate is on the nose, it will be the sector's worst December since 2002.

There are many reasons that the holiday-shopping season was a slow one: rising food and fuel costs, the credit market breakdown, continued housing woes. And because of all these reasons, many retailers were forced to offer sale prices and additional incentives to lure cautious customers into the stores. These discounts obviously pressured the bottom line.

It's easy for me to preach "shop local" from my blogger's perch in Manhattan. While many companies are headquartered here in New York, boutiques, bodegas and mom & pop shops rule this roost. Aside from Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) -- c'mon, they're ubiquitous -- and maybe Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD), I'd have to hike a mile or so to reach the nearest publicly traded business.

But committing my Christmas dollars to local businesses is a tradition I picked up from my ex back in North Carolina, and I think I'm all the better for it -- and all the better served.

For starters, you're far more likely to be wowed with the service from a small shop. At a local business, often you deal directly with the shop owners, who have an undeniable stake in your transaction. Because their equity and livelihood depend upon the repeat business of customers like yourself, you're worth more to the small business owner than the customer queued up at a crowded cash register at Circuit City (NYSE: CC) or Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD), and that value is evident in the transaction.

As some of you have probably already noticed, this year's holiday shopping season has started a little earlier than usual. For those of you who have not noticed the early arrival of the season, don't worry, you aren't blind, you are just proof that retailers have been successful in their attempt to start the holiday shopping without anyone noticing.

Typically, we can at least expect retailers to wait until we get past Halloween to start the hard hitting marketing campaigns, but this year is a bit different. Retailers usually expect strong sales leading up to the holidays, but this year there are economic jitters weighing on the minds of consumers, along with fear related to the massive Chinese toy recalls that we have witnessed this year, and are likely to continue to hear about.

It was what thousands of parents of whiny kids were waiting for. Out of the blue, the Tickle-Me-Elmo floodgates are open and (among others) Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) makes oodles of TMX Elmo dolls available on the company's web site. From an, umm, "hidden cache." According to Heather, a TMX Elmo searcher in my office, she finally discovered an Elmo available "suddenly" from Fisher Price. Another warehouse abruptly appear out of the fog in El Segundo? (Do they have fog in El Segundo?)


All at once, eBay, Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) listings are everywhere, 22,446 results for my search for "TMX Elmo" and not just lots of results but falling prices. When I first checked around 10:45 a.m. there were dozens of listings closing around $5 or $10 over the suggested retail price of $39.99. 20 minutes later, when I was finishing up this piece? It was more like $5 or $10 under the suggested retail price. The Spanish version was going for a ridiculously cheap $26.55. Market floodage has commenced.

When Black Friday was approaching and customers were gearing up for their long wait in line to be one of the few, the proud, the early purchasers of TMX Elmo dolls, a few less festive souls whispered of "artificial shortages" and wondered if Mattel was purposely creating a frenzy over the toys. Most parents and eBay sellers accused them of a distinct lack of holiday spirit, and oh yeah, not enough capitalism.