To paraphrase Mark Twain "The reports of our death are greatly exaggerated". The world economy has been in shambles for a few years now, and our nation has much work ahead of it. 2010 was an improvement over 2009 and I believe 2011 will show further improvement.

There are lots of ideas running through my mind as I consider where the economy might be heading in 2011. What opportunities lay in front of us waiting to be picked up or passed over? Just five trading days left, and market activity will slow down except among fund managers making adjustments for tax purposes or window dressing. You should examine your tax situation, too.

This morning, the National Retail Federation (NRF) issued its forecast for the 2010 holiday shopping season. The NRF believes sales will increase 2.3% to $447.1 billion. The growth is slightly lower than the 10-year average of holiday sales increases (2.5%), but such an increase would be a major improvement over past years. In 2009 holiday sales improved 0.4%, slow but better than the 3.9% decline in 2008.

Despite some early concerns that the action would be slow, seasonal hiring spiked 42% for the retail sector in 2009.

Even though growth was modest -- and based on the depressed baseline set last year -- 547,400 holiday workers showed up at stores across the country to help handle the increased foot traffic and what eventually became a small gain in sales. A year earlier, holiday hiring fell to a 22-year low of 384,300, according to an analysis revealed to BloggingStocks by Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

The second best shopping day of the holiday season didn't come until after the festivities ended. Dec. 26, 2009 wasn't good enough to top Black Friday, but data from ShopperTrak shows that it did shoot past the last Saturday before Christmas, which is usually among the top days of the holiday season. This year, that Saturday wasn't able to realize its potential because of a snowstorm that smacked the East Coast.

Store traffic fell 6.6% from 2008 for the day after Christmas, but sales still reached $7.9 billion. Analysts expected the the first post-holiday shopping day to assume more importance, largely because of the storm a week earlier

Facebook was busy on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, according to Hitwise, but people weren't playing online games. It seems they were more focused on staying in touch and spreading the usual holiday cheer than tending to their farms, cafes and organized crime battles.

Over the holidays, Facebook was the top Website visited in the U.S., Hitwise reported via its Twitter account. The Web metrics company tweeted the bold statement: "Facebook was the most visited site in the US on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. 1st time the site has been the #1 visited US site ever."

Today was a low volume trading day without much economic fanfare as many market participants were out or were talking about the Christmas holiday rather than the markets. The manufacturing output was reported for the Dallas and Chicago Fed Districts, but this in and of itself is rarely enough to heavily influence the markets. There will be more traders around on Tuesday and Wednesday most likely, but then it is likely to peter out again on Thursday ahead of the New Year's Day holiday this Friday. The markets were mixed throughout the trading day, and the real position for an up-close or down-close was something not known until the very end of the trading day.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 10,547.30 +27.20 (0.26%)
S&P 500 1,127.78 +1.30 (0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,291.08 +5.39 (0.24%)

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For retailers, it doesn't get bigger than the holiday season, but even a raving success may not be enough to push an uneasy economy on the road to recovery. Basically, the retail sector has to do well to keep people from worrying more, but we'll all have to wait a while for some economic bliss. According to an MSNBC report, gift sales aren't as powerful as many believe.

So, here are five reasons why a great visit from Santa won't be enough to kick-start the economy:

Anxious to grab every last dollar they can out of holiday shoppers, retailers are pulling out all the stops. Especially given the snowstorm on the East Coast last week, they have to make up some ground, and time is running out. They lost the Saturday before Christmas, one of the busiest shopping days of the year -- and a favorite of people like me who wait until the last minute.

"Super Saturday," as it's called, was off close to 13% compared to last year, says research firm ShopperTrak. Only $6.9 billion came in, off $1 billion-year-over-year. And, let's not forget that 2008 was a drag. Its $7.9 billion performance was down from $8.7 billion in 2007.

It wouldn't reveal the number, but Amazon (AMZN) did announce that it realized record sales for its Kindle e-reader this month. And, there's still the rest of the month to go, including the run-up to Christmas. Just as the battle for e-reader market share began to flare up, it already seems to be over.

This year, Sony (SNE) released a new e-reader, and Barnes & Noble (BKS) entered the market with its Nook device. Both posted early successes, which quickly became problems. The two companies sold out of inventory and won't be able to ship new orders until the new year.

There might be something extra in your paycheck this month. A survey of 100 human resource executives, conducted by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, found that 64% of companies are planning to pay holiday bonuses this year, even though they're still worried about expenses in a market that remains difficult. We've clearly come a long way over the past 12 months. Hiring may not have resumed yet, but at least employers are showing that they appreciate their employees ... and are worried about losing them. At this time last year, only 54% were planning to toss a little extra to the staff for the holidays.

And, the bonus checks are getting bigger, at least for a few people. Eight percent of respondents indicated that they are amping up bonus pay, compared to none a year ago. But, 16% say they aren't paying bonuses this year, up from 13% in December 2008. Another 4% are cutting bonus check sizes.

Everybody's back at their desks today, but a majority will be skirting as much work as possible and doing a little stealth shopping when the boss isn't looking. I know that I was deluged with myriad emails from various retailers extolling the virtues of their own "Cyber Monday" sales.

Cyber Monday is the day that you can get free shipping, amazing percentages off, or extra goodies simply for shopping from the comfort of your computer. Remember, many analysts believe that Cyber Monday is nothing more than hype and not a real phenomenon (see Colin Sebastian's comments in the seventh paragraph). That said, which retailers could cash in today?

No, don't expect to see windmills and solar panels -- consumers are leaning toward a different kind of green this holiday season: cash. Rather than hit their credit cards, shoppers will only be spending money they have (and can see and touch). Seventy-one percent of consumers are looking to cash and debit cards as their primary form of payment for holiday shopping this year, which the National Retail Foundation pegs as the highest level since 2005.

This could be a problem for the retailers.

Sure, you'd think that the merchant fees on credit cards make cash more attractive to the sellers. But, Ellen Davis, a spokesperson for the NRF, says that most retailers have found they can talk credit card buyers into up-sells more easily. That leads to a bigger basket size and more revenue. Done successfully, it should comfortably absorb the impact of merchant fees. James Roberts, a marketing professor at Baylor University, adds that using plastic makes consumers more likely to buy at all, let alone more.

Retailers may lose a revenue lever to pull this upcoming holiday shopping season ... and it could be a big one. The number of shoppers expected to opt for gift cards rather than traditional purchased goods is likely to increase this year, as nobody wants to waste money on a loser present in a tough financial environment.

Gift cards make that problem go away, but flexibility isn't free. Retailers have tacked on a variety of fees to bring in a bit of extra cash from gift card sales, but if the U.S. Federal Reserve gets its way, these fees will be forced sharply lower.

What's on your Christmas wish list? If the National Retail Federation is right, gift cards are probably holding a respectable place toward the top of the list. These little pieces of plastic are requested most this time of year, and they have the added perk of allowing people to get what they want instead of money wasted on presents that sucks. This trend may give retailers a hand this year, as they'll be able to keep their inventories down.

If shoppers are slow with the cash, retailers won't have to resort to just slashing prices as they had to last year to move product out the door. When the stuff on the shelves is cheap, gift cards aren't as attractive because there's a deal to be had! This year, if inventories are kept down, gift cards are more likely to move.

If Amazon (AMZN) was comfortable with its spot atop the e-reader market, it just got a wakeup call from Barnes & Noble (BKS). The brick-and-mortar book retailer's e-reader, the Nook, which hasn't even hit stores yet, is in pre-order nirvana right now. The first run for the Nook occurred at the end of October (the product was introduced on October 20). These buyers were told the reader would ship on November 30. High demand resulted in backorders, so the next wave of pre-orders was scheduled to ship on December 7. Now, a third group will have to wait until December 11.

This product is on fire, and it still isn't even on shelves yet.

Mary Ellen Keating, a spokeswoman for Barnes & Noble wouldn't reveal how many of these devices have been pre-ordered, but she did say, "Demand for the product in our stores and online has surpassed our expectations." She also noted, "We are working hard to meet demand for the holidays."