Since last year's summer movie preview featured mostly sequels and adaptations, this year's preview has been expanded to include more than just potential "blockbusters." The following is a chronological list of not only the most hyped film fare of the summer, but other noteworthy smaller entries, and a short commentary on each.



5/2 - Iron Man, Viacom (NYSE: VIA)'s Paramount Pictures
The first of two big Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) adaptations of the summer, the Robert Downey Jr. led Iron Man has been getting a ton of hype and critical acclaim. This is the second year that a comic book adaptation has kicked off the summer, following last year's Spider-Man 3, which grossed over $150M over its opening weekend.

5/9 - Speed Racer, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX)'s Warner Bros.
Another big-budget adaptation of a generations-old cartoon. Last year's Transformers was, to my surprise, a huge success, so maybe Speed Racer, in the capable directing hands of the Wachowskis, can be as well.

In August, BloggingStocks' Kevin Kelly wrote about signs that the credit crunch could have a material impact on the ability of Hollywood to finance movie projects.

Sunday's New York Times writes about the recent emergence of special funds for investing in Hollywood productions, including the $600 million Gun Hill Road 1, a fund maintained by Gun Hill Road LLC. These funds are fueled by dollars from hedge funds and private equity firms

According to The Times, "All of the hand-wringing leads to a basic question: What if some of the hedge fund and private equity guys (and they are still mostly guys) pack their bags and head home to Connecticut? How bad off would the studios really be? One answer is this: A little less money might not be a bad development for studios and, heaven forbid, for moviegoers."

Apparently the willingness of hedge funds and private equity types to invest in these projects (I would speculate that many of these former high-school-nerd money managers invest in films not to generate a ROI, but rather to boost their EGO, and show those kids who made fun of their pocket protectors what's what) has lead to a movie glut, with a lot of sub-par, big budget movies getting financed that never should have. Doesn't that sound a lot like the last months of the private equity bubble?

In any case, maybe a decline in the dollars available for movie productions wouldn't be such a bad thing. Perhaps Hollywood can get away from its infatuation with special effects and big names, and focus more on creativity and art.

This summer was a very profitable one for box offices nationwide, with four movies grossing over $300M, and at least another nine grossing over $100M -- signaling in a big way the resurgence of the movie industry, which had been struggling for the last few years.

The four big $300M+ winners of the summer were Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE) 'sSpider-Man 3, which grossed $336M in the U.S., Viacom, Inc (NYSE: VIA)'s Paramount's Shrek the Third, which grossed $320M, Transformers, also from Paramount, which grossed $311M, and The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS)'s Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, which grossed $308M.

Three of the four were third installments of well established big-budget franchises, so their success is hardly shocking, but the Transformers success clearly marks the start of a new blockbuster franchise (the release date of the sequel has been announced -- June 26, 2009). The robot-action extravaganza, which was directed by Michael Bay, was definitely a surprise, as I remarked in my summer movie preview that Transformers "has flop written all over it... there cannot possibly be enough substance in a story about alien robots that transform into vehicles to make this a hit with the general public." I was wrong -- very wrong. The movie killed at the box office, grossing over $330M on a $150M budget, and prompting a re-release on IMAX, which opened last week.

Shrek 3 and Spider-Man 3 are coming to a movie theater near you, just as the sector is coming out of an ugly downturn.

Overcapacity and over-leverage had led to an ogre-ish performance causing theater operators to file for bankruptcy or get picked up by private equity.

Now theater companies are going public or emerging from bankruptcy with little fanfare. However, according to Buzz Zaino, long-time great stock picker at Royce Opportunity Fund, it is time to start looking at these stocks again. In Barron's fund-manager interview (subscription required), Zaino said box-office receipts are up 7.2% year-to-date with a summer of good new releases expected to keep the momentum going.

Carmike Cinemas Inc (NASDAQ: CKEC) looks particularly attractive since it has upgraded 75% of its screens to digital, on which, in addition to showing movies, new alternative concepts are expected to generate additional revenue. Other movie chains Zaino likes are Regal Entertainment Group (NYSE: RGC) and Cinemark Holdings Inc (NYSE: CNK).

Expected improvements in box-office receipts should lead to nice incremental EBITDA margins especially for Carmike since its theater upgrade is mostly completed.

Few have mentioned theater stocks as a place to invest in. Zaino is one of the best at find long-forgotten industries as fundamentals are on the upswing. This ogre of an industry appears ready to return some princely profits to shareholder.

Last year I previewed the big-budget summer movies, giving you a look at ten interesting films that were on the docket for the summer of 2006. This year I'm back with an even longer list (bloated like these films' budgets) of 15 movies you may want to escape to -- or possibly run screaming from.

Of these fifteen movies, Spiderman 3 and ten others are sequels, which in itself indicates something about the state of the industry (And I didn't even include Rush Hour 3 in this list, because, honestly, who wants to see that?). Two of the remaining four movies, Transformers and The Simpsons, are based on animated television shows, leaving only two original ideas in the whole lot -- Knocked Up and Ratatouille. Please, don't shoot the messenger.

Anyway, here is the list, chronologically, of the movies that Hollywood's brain-trust believes you will shell out your cash to see in the air-conditioned darkness of your local movie-house, along with my opinion of how they'll fare. The first on the list, Spider-Man 3, is already out in Asia, but will not be released here until May. All release dates below are for the U.S.

5/04 - Spider-Man 3, Sony Corp's (NYSE: SNE) Sony Pictures
Being the first blockbuster of the summer almost guarantees a successful open, and the popularity of the franchise seals that guarantee. One problem, however, is that "success" measured by any normal means won't be enough, as this movie had an estimated budget of $258M.

5/11 - 28 Weeks Later, News Corp's (NYSE: NWS) 20th Century Fox
The highlight of the horror/zombie genre for the summer, this follows the surprise success of Danny Boyle's 28 Days Later, which reinvented the zombie film with faster zombies and smarter characters.

5/18 - Shrek the Third, Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Paramount Pictures
One of the only cartoon franchises that has held its own against Pixar (Ice Age being the other), the draw of this fairytale romp is that while kids love the story, there are enough winks at the adult audience to make parents happy to take them.

5/25 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS)
Money in the bank for Disney, and since it was shot simultaneous with the second Pirates installment, it wasn't even as expensive to make as this summer's other budget hog, Spider-Man 3.

With the Grammy Awards now behind us ("My Humps?" Really? And did I actually see Slayer on the list of winners?), the red-carpet watchers can turn their collective attention to Oscar night, which is now less than two weeks away.

A handful of publicly traded entertainment companies will be in focus as potential beneficiaries of eight and a half pounds of gold-plated honor. This year may be one of the least exciting broadcasts, with clear front-runners already established in the major categories. Forest Whitaker has come a long was from Fast Times at Ridgemont High, with a powerful turn as Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland, released by Fox Searchlight, a division of News Corp. (NYSE:NWS). Fox Searchlight was also the force behind Little Miss Sunshine, a simple family dramedy holding its own against some major competition and nabbing a Best Picture nod.

As for Best Actress, a Helen Mirren victory seems like a foregone conclusion for her nuanced turn as Queen Elizabeth II in The Queen (also a Best Picture nominee). The Queen was released by Walt Disney's (NYSE:DIS) Miramax division. (Incidentally, the Oscars will air on DIS unit ABC Networks).

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst with Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Lions Gate Entertainment Corp (NYSE: LGF), which has been a bright light in the otherwise dim movie industry recently, has found success making low budget movies aimed at the 20-30 year-old audience. Here is a list of some of their more notable recent releases, sorted by their estimated budgets. None of the movies has a rating milder than PG-13.

• Hostel ($4.5M est. budget / $47.3M gross)
• Diary of a Mad Black Woman ($5.5M est. budget / $50.3M gross)
• Crash ($6.5M est. budget / $54.5M gross, won Best Picture Oscar)
• Crank ($12M est. budget / $27.8M gross)
• Employee of the Month ($12M est. budget / $28.4M gross)
• Saw III ($12M est. budget / $80.1M gross)
• Hotel Rwanda ($17.5M est. budget / $23.4M gross, nominated for 3 Oscars)
• Lord of War ($42M est. budget / $24.1M gross)

(All above figures taken from IMDB.com)

From the above list, you can see Lions Gate's winning formula. All their successes have budgets under $20 million dollars, and most fit into three categories: Movies that push the limits of violence and gore (Hostel, Crank, Saw); low-brow adult-themed comedies (Diary of a Mad Black Woman, Employee of the Month); and edgy dramatic works that gain critical appreciation (Crash, Hotel Rwanda).

Now, here is the problem -- neither the movie the just released, Happily N'Ever After, nor the movie that is making noise today with its addition of Paula Abdul to its cast, Bratz, fits this formula.

Time Warner had a good week, opening at $16.50 on Moday 28 August, and closing on Friday 1 September at $16.76, with gains on all five days. Lots happening in the various dividions of the Time Warner stable. Just in time for the start of the new school year, AOL launched Study Buddy, a search engine that includes only homework help and information sites pre-approved by educators in order to keep inappropriate internet material away from kids. Despite its avowed attempt to recoup subscription fees through increased online advertising, AOL permits only limited advertising on the Study Budddy site in order not to be accused of trying to manipulate or explot children as consumers.

Marketing to older students, AOL launched Music Now, offering access to 2.5 million audio tracks and thousands of music videos. Also included in this product is access to some XM Radio channels. Alas, according to BusinessWeek online, Apple's strong brand and enormous market share will not be threatened by this latest attempt at direct competition against the popularity and ubiquity of iPods and iTunes. If more than mildly successful, however, AOL's Music Now could cause Apple to offer a more flexible pricing scheme. Monopoly bad, competition good. And speaking of trying to strike a blow for competition, AOL announced it will continue to support the Dojo JavaScript toolkit in order to spread adoption of it in the ever growing open source community. AOL already uses Dojo in AIM Pages.

Turner Broadcasting System's TNT will again host Film Life's Black Movie Awards celebrating achievements in black cinema. The awards gala in Los Angeles will be aired on Wednesday, October 18 at 10 P.M. only on TNT. 2006 awardees for achievement in black cinema include Cicely Tyson and Laurence Fishburne. On Sunday, September 10, Turner Classic Movies will honor the legendary actor Glenn Ford who died recently at age 90. Six out of Ford's close to 100 movies will be aired.

Time Warner Cable announced it has signed up its first 75,000 digital phone service customers in the Kansas City area and expects the figure to climb much higher at Time Warner takes on AT&T. While cutomers may increasingly opt for digital phone service, AOL has cut off its TotalTalk internet-phone service due to lack of consumer interest. Instead, AOL will concentrate on marketing its AIM Phoneline service in which computers can dial up other computers for free and receive incoming cell phone calls.

Former Latin students of the world:

Salvete! I have good news!

No, your Latin teacher didn't actually give herself a lethal paper cut on your shoddy translation of Virgil's Aeneid. And, no, your local school board didn't finally decide that Latin was, in fact, "dead enough" to give up on trying to teach it.

But it's almost as good. Earlier today, Warner Bros. movie studio, a unit of Time Warner, announced plans to remake the old Latin class stand-by Clash of the Titans. The original feature film, which follows the codpiece-wearing hero, Perseus, as he fights monsters and Medusa, to save the beautiful Princess Andromeda. Andromeda, in typical princess style, spends most of the movie chained up to a rock, waiting to be rescued by the divinely chartered hero.