This is the fourth update to my ranting eight months ago that acquiring six of the most hated, and most highly traded stocks with constant negative headlines would outperform the overall market. The theory has born fruit as the toxic stocks are ahead and the difference is increasing over time.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Toxic Stock Update #4 -- BAC, BP, C, GE, GS, RIG

Chasing Value: Toxic Stock Update #4 -- BAC, BP, C, GE, GS, RIG originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 11 Mar 2011 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2011 Picks Dust the S&P

Chasing Value: 2011 Picks Dust the S&P originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 Feb 2011 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I have already gone on record this year saying that financial companies and insurance stocks are going to continue to rebound. In my previous two posts Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11 and Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 6, 7, 8, 9, I included several financial institutions. Today I add an insurance company.

The industry got whacked hard for many reasons. For one, it makes a significant amount of profit by investing its float, and like every other investor, the industry lost a pile of money in the financial crisis. It was embroiled more directly than some industries, as several insurers are affiliated with banks. Finally the housing crisis meant disruption to payment streams by homeowners who were delinquent on more than their mortgages.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 10 and 11

Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 10 and 11 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 10 Jan 2011 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Could a stock that you made 1,100% on still have room to run? Yes, it is possible. In particular if it had a near death experience as a penny stock for a while.

That is the case with Newcastle Investments (NCT), the CMBS lender and real estate investment company that reached a recent high of $7.10 and has settled back down, most recently hovering between $6.70 to $7.00. It closed Thursday December 23 at $6.71.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- Part 2

Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- Part 2 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 27 Dec 2010 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Last year, a U.S. District Court in Manhattan secretly froze $2 billion held in a Citigroup (C) account. The money was believed to have been held on behalf of Iran, through Luxembourg's Clearstream Banking S.A. In what the Wall Street Journal reports could be the largest seizure of Iranian assets abroad since the Islamic revolution of 1979, several parties are lining up to claim the cash. And, it looks like the battle is headed for trial.

The order to freeze the funds was executed 18 months ago by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York and hasn't been made public. In issuing the legal order, the court used information from the U.S. Treasury Department. Though the money is frozen, the struggle is heating up.

Continue reading Global fight brewing over frozen funds from Iran

Global fight brewing over frozen funds from Iran originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 13 Dec 2009 16:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Bank of America (BAC) surprised the market on Wednesday by announcing that it would repay the $45 billion in TARP money it received over the next few days. This gives the company much more flexibility in compensating its employees, but it could leave the bank exposed to future economic shocks.

CEO Kenneth Lewis, who's expected to retire at the end of the month, said he wanted to take care of this before leaving the firm. This decision comes at a great time for the Treasury Department, which has been feeling the heat for committing taxpayer resources to a dicey problem without seeing much progress yet.

Continue reading BofA to repay TARP money, rest to follow?

BofA to repay TARP money, rest to follow? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 03 Dec 2009 08:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Citigroup (NYSE: C) and American International Group (NYSE: AIG) have already taken about $496 billion in U.S. cash and guarantees to keep them from failing. This makes me wonder: Is there no way to allow them to simply fail without causing the entire global financial system to collapse? And if not, is there a limit to how much more taxpayer money we pour into them before we say "no more"? The answers: Maybe and Yes.

Citi looks to be a basket case after $345 billion in taxpayer bailouts. It has already gotten $45 billion in cash -- $25 billion of which was recently converted from preferred to common -- and $301 billion in guarantees of its toxic assets. The U.S. now owns 36% of the common stock of Citi -- which lost $27.7 billion in 2008 and has a market capitalization -- Citi common shares times price per share -- of $8.2 billion.

Continue reading After $496 billion, how much more can we bail out Citi and AIG?

After $496 billion, how much more can we bail out Citi and AIG? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 28 Feb 2009 08:33:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Congress is sending a bill to President Obama's desk that limits banker pay. Specifically 11 pages in the 1,073-page $787 billion stimulus bill describe a provision that limits bonuses for executives at all financial institutions getting government money to a maximum of a third of their salary. And these are not cash bonuses -- instead they'll be paid in company stock that executives can't sell until the government investment has been repaid.

Citigroup (NYSE: C) CEO Vikram Pandit, volunteered to take a $1 salary until his company returns to profitability. Assuming Citi posts a loss in 2009, Pandit's maximum bonus for the year will be 33 cents -- which at today's price would amount to a tenth of a share of Citi stock.

Continue reading Will Citi CEO get a 33 cent bonus this year?

Will Citi CEO get a 33 cent bonus this year? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 14 Feb 2009 10:24:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Last month, I posted on 2008's eight worst ideas. At the top of my list was deregulation. Robert Rubin, who spent a decade as a director of Citigroup (NYSE: C) and is now retiring, is partly responsible for one very important act of deregulation -- the repeal of Glass-Steagall which separated investment and commercial banking. (It was former Citi CEO Sandy Weill's 1998 merger of his Travelers with Citi that spurred Glass-Steagall's repeal in the 1999 passage of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act which allowed commercial and investment banks to own each other.)

And by bringing down that barrier -- established in the wake of the stock market manipulations of the 1920s enabled by commercial banks that made margin loans to trade stocks -- the U.S. helped usher in the current financial catastrophe. Now the government is gradually reimposing Glass-Steagall -- in effect, if not in law.

Rubin was well rewarded for his decade of "service" to Citi -- taking in $126 million and being paid as an employee while claiming to be a mere advisor. But for that measly sum, Rubin's reputation -- which was at its zenith following his tenure as Treasury Secretary in the 1990s -- is shredded. It probably didn't help that since he joined Citi's board in October 1999, its stock has fallen 82% -- destroying $164 billion in stock market value. Meanwhile, the empire that Weill ushered in -- based on the idea that people wanted to buy all their financial services from one provider -- is being dismantled.

Continue reading As Rubin departs Citi, deregulation gets a spike through its heart

As Rubin departs Citi, deregulation gets a spike through its heart originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 10 Jan 2009 08:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Wonder what happened to the hard earned money you paid in taxes? I can't account for all of it but $540 billion that went to six financial institutions is being used, in part, to operate 27 corporate jets. I may be the only one who feels this way, but I don't think the survival of the global economy depends on using taxpayer money to pay for financial executives to fly on their own corporate jets.

Here are the six financial institutions with the amount of taxpayer money they received and the number of corporate jets they're still flying:

• American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG). $150 billion, seven corporate jets
• Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C). $330 billion, four jets. (The $330 billion includes Citi's initial $25 billion in TARP money plus its more recent $305 billion in loan guarantees.)
• Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC). $25 billion, one jet
• Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). $25 billion, nine jets -- its CEO Ken Lewis used $127,643 worth of its corporate jets
• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) . $25 billion, four jets -- its CEO Jamie Dimon's personal use of its corporate aircraft totaled $211,182 in 2007
• Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS). $10 billion, two jets -- its CEO John Mack's personal use of its corporate aircraft totaled $358,882 in 2007

Continue reading Six banks with $540 billion in bailout money still flying 27 corporate jets

Six banks with $540 billion in bailout money still flying 27 corporate jets originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 21 Dec 2008 15:44:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The FDIC took over three banks yesterday, bringing the total number of bank failures so far this year to 22. As I posted, the FDIC likes to close banks on Friday after hours so they can reopen as branches of the acquiring bank on the following Monday morning. But the U.S. better be working overtime this weekend because Citigroup (NYSE: C) is going to need a merger partner or a government rescue to keep it from becoming history's biggest bank failure.

Of the three banks that failed Friday, two were in California -- Downey Savings and Loan Association (with $12.8 billion in assets and deposits of $9.7 billion), based in Newport Beach, and PFF Bank & Trust of Pomona (with assets of $3.7 billion and $2.4 billion in deposits) -- and the third was in Georgia: The Community Bank, with $681 million in assets and $611.4 million in deposits in Loganville.

In each case, the FDIC arranged for a healthier bank to take over the deposits, branches, and some of the assets of the failed one. U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) acquired the deposits of the two California banks that were brought down by Option ARM mortgages -- which allow a borrower to skip payments and add the amount to the loan principle -- and housing construction loans. Bank of Essex, of Tappahannock, Va., bought all the bank deposits and $84.4 million of The Community Bank's assets -- the FDIC took on the rest.

Continue reading Bank Failure Count: FDIC closes 22nd bank of 2008

Bank Failure Count: FDIC closes 22nd bank of 2008 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 22 Nov 2008 09:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The financial crisis is not over. If things were back to normal, banks would be lending to each other and to businesses and individuals. But measures of bank lending risk suggest fear is 12 times as high as it would be in normal times. The reason? Banks know more than you do about what's wrong. And they're not talking about it because they don't want you to withdraw your deposits and sell your stock. What they know is that on October 21st, some of the biggest players on Wall Street could be required to come up with $400 billion that some may not be able to pay.

Last month, the White House decided that we could afford to let Lehman Brothers file for bankruptcy. That proved to be an enormous mistake. It triggered a run on money market funds because one of the oldest such funds, Reserve Primary, broke the buck since it held Lehman Brothers paper. The U.S. responded with a $50 billion guarantee of money market funds. But the biggest consequence of that mistake is in the $54.6 trillion market for Credit Default Swaps (CDSs).

A CDS is like selling insurance on your car to hundreds of people who don't own it -- yet if your car goes up in flames each of those people collects the full value of your car. More specifically, CDSs are insurance against a bond or loan default. Why are CDSs so dangerous? Three reasons: a CDS seller does not need to put any capital aside to cover losses if the security defaults, the buyer doesn't need to own the asset it wants to protect, and there is no central place where information about all these CDS deals is collected and updated.

Continue reading Will Lehman bankruptcy drop a $400 billion shoe on October 21st?

Will Lehman bankruptcy drop a $400 billion shoe on October 21st? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 15 Oct 2008 10:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Hank Paulson is keenly aware that his Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) and Treasury predecessor, Robert Rubin, helped save the market by encouraging the then-head of the New York Fed to force Wall Street leaders to team up to save Long-Term Capital Management's collapse from taking down the financial markets. Just as George W. Bush needed to recap Iraq, so now does Hank Paulson need to recap that famous meeting in lower Manhattan.

Bloomberg News reports that the meeting -- which took place yesterday afternoon -- involved a rogues gallery of Wall Street executives coupled with Paulson and New York Fed president Tim Geithner. The message these regulators delivered was reportedly a simple one: "You need to solve your own problems, and we're not going to provide any more capital." But Wall Street -- as represented by the likes of "Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C)'s Vikram Pandit, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) 's Jamie Dimon, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS)'s John Mack, Goldman's Lloyd Blankfein, and Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.'s (NYSE: MER) John Thain" -- are convinced that the Fed will blink when it comes to the 158 year old Lehman Brothers Holdings (NYSE: LEH).

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) reportedly wants to put in a bid for Lehman contingent on getting government help -- such as the $29 billion JPMorgan got in its Bear Stearns acquisition and its nationalization of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE). After these two precedents, Paulson now wants to reverse himself. He says Lehman is different because people have known it was in trouble for a long time and it can access the Fed's discount window. But I think this could just be a little show for the President who is worried about how this will look to history. He may not realize that he has already opened the Pandora's Box of moral hazard and can't shut it now.

Continue reading Will Lehman lose as Paulson and Wall Street play a game of chicken?

Will Lehman lose as Paulson and Wall Street play a game of chicken? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 13 Sep 2008 04:57:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

• Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) -- $18.45 down 63% from its 52 week high of $49.90; closed yesterday at $19.11, UP 3.57%
  
• Lehman Br Holdings (NYSE: LEH) -- $16.88 down 75% from its 52 week high of $67.73; closed yesterday at $16.13, down 4.44%
• Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) -- $26.25 down 67% from its 52 week high of $79.72; closed yesterday at $27.75, UP 5.7%.
• MBIA Inc (NYSE: MBI) -- $4.92 down 93% from its 52 week high of $68.98; closed yesterday at $16.14, UP 228%.
• E*TRADE (NASDAQ: ETFC) -- $3.06 down 84% from its 52 week high of $19.39; closed yesterday at $3.25, UP 6.2.
• East West Bancorp (NASDAQ: EWBC) -- $12.46 down 67% from its 52 week high of $20.88; closed yesterday at $13.01, UP 4.4%.
• Gramercy Capital (NYSE: GKK) -- $6.72 down 77% from its 52 week high of $29.45; closed yesterday at $6.80, UP 1.2%.
• Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT) -- $5.88 down 72% from its 52 week high of $20.88; closed yesterday at $6.89, UP 17.18%.
• Wachovia Corp. (NYSE: WB) -- $15.70 down 70% from its 52 week high of $53.10; closed yesterday at $16.65, UP 6%.
• Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) -- $4.43 down 89% from its 52 week high of $39.48; closed yesterday at $4.24, down 4.29%

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of MBI, NCT & WM.

Chasing Value: Financials risky but up 26% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 03 Sep 2008 14:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

CNNMoney reports that Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is the latest bank to buy back its worthless Auction Rate Securities (ARS) from individual investors. With that buyback, Morgan Stanley follows in the wake of Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C), Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) and UBS AG (NYSE: UBS).

CNNMoney notes that Morgan Stanley said it would offer to repurchase all ARS "held by individuals, charities and small and medium-sized business with accounts of $10 million or less at the bank." Morgan Stanley will begin to start buying back $4.5 billion worth of ARS on September 30th and will "make its best effort to provide liquidity solutions" for institutional investors by the end of 2009. But New York attorney general Andrew Cuomo is not satisfied with Morgan Stanley's proposal.

Meanwhile, the list of big ARS issuers that have not settled grows shorter. Here are six holdouts (with their 2007 municipal ARS issuance in parentheses):

• JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) ($5.2 B)
• Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) ($4.3 B)
• Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) ($3.7 B)

Continue reading Morgan Stanley latest to buy back Auction Rate Securities

Morgan Stanley latest to buy back Auction Rate Securities originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 12 Aug 2008 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) announced that it would follow Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) in redeeming its Auction Rate Securities (ARS). Unlike Citi -- which plans to redeem $7 billion worth of ARS by November -- Merrill will take its sweet time. According to MarketWatch, from January 15, 2009, and through January 15, 2010, Merrill will "offer to buy at par" $10 billion worth of ARS it sold to 30,000 retail clients.

This is good news and it should get the ball rolling. But there are still at least $300 billion ARS which are not yet redeemed. The list of issuers reads like a who's who of the banking world. For instance, the Wall Street Journal reports that the top 10 municipal ARS issuers at the end of 2007 were as follows:

• Citigroup ($6.7 B)
• Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) ($5.2 B)
• JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) ($5.2 B)
• Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) ($4.3 B)
• UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) ($4.2 B)

Continue reading Merrill Lynch follows Citigroup in redeeming its Auction Rate Securities

Merrill Lynch follows Citigroup in redeeming its Auction Rate Securities originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 07 Aug 2008 18:58:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The New York Times reports that Citigroup (NYSE: C) plans to commit $400 million to its naming rights deal for the stadium of the New York Mets. I say stop this deal!

Why? There are so many examples of companies that got into trouble after they named stadiums after themselves. In Boston, the stadium where the New England Patriots play was named after Gillette -- but Gillette doesn't exist anymore -- Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) bought it in 2005. And we had the Fleet Center, where the Boston Celtics play -- but Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) bought Fleet in 2003. And we also had the Tweeter Center, a concert venue -- named after Tweeter Home Enterprises which filed for bankruptcy last June. Fortunately, Boston's other world championship team, the Red Sox, has the good sense to deny naming rights to any company for its Fenway Park.

Now for Citi. According to the Times, it made its 20-year deal for the Mets naming rights back in November 2006 under previous CEO, Chuck Prince, after netting $5.3 billion in 2006's third quarter. But in the past three quarters, it has lost $17 billion - including a $2.5 billion loss reported on Friday.

Continue reading Will Citi fall victim to the stadium-naming curse?

Will Citi fall victim to the stadium-naming curse? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 20 Jul 2008 09:23:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The New York Times reports that Citigroup (NYSE: C) CEO Vikram Pandit is trying to buck up his troops with speeches on values. Since taking over last December 12, Citi's stock has lost over 50% of its value and has accumulated $45 billion in losses in the last year.

A few days after he started as CEO, I suggested that Citi might be a buy if it hits $15. I am sorry to say it, but I was wrong. We're at $15 today and I would not buy more at this price. With analysts expecting Citi to lose 31 cents a share when it reports on Friday, it seems to me that the downside risks to the stock weigh heavily. That's because it's missed estimates the last two quarters and Zacks thinks it could lose as much as 51 cents a share. But what worries me the most is what the Times reported about what appears to be a missing sense of urgency about how to fix Citi.

It describes how he spent time at a meeting in Armonk, NY, pushing "60 top managers to build on his seven rules, which he unveiled in the last few weeks. Those rules include items like "client connectivity," "transparency" and "product excellence."" Not surprisingly, in my view, the Times reports that "some Citigroup insiders roll their eyes at what they see as dull platitudes."

Continue reading Can Citi's Pandit last the year?

Can Citi's Pandit last the year? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 16 Jul 2008 10:59:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Six months of 2008 are now behind us and the stock market has not been a friendly place to most investors. Stability that was once found in household names that were industry giants is gone, and they have now been brought to their knees.

Many of them were the stocks we might have looked to in the past for stability, so you can be sure I put forward my five candidates with a little trepidation, but forward I go anyway. First a little review is in order.

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) dropped from around $53 per share last year to around $30 in January and we can buy it today for around $17. Even at that price Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has downgraded it to a sell and thinks there is more bad news to come. Citigroup was the largest bank in the world. Not any more.

General Motors (NYSE: GM) was the largest car maker in the world. That was before the stock tumbled from $43 to its current $11 range. A crushing blow to long time investors hoping that someone in the company could stop the ship from sinking.

Continue reading Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times

Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 Jul 2008 15:02:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Last November, Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) and 30 partners were said be developing a new type of handset using Android that was expected to revolutionize the industry. The first new phones were expected to be available in this year's second half but are now slated for the fourth quarter the Wall Street Journal reported.
• According to people familiar with the situation, the Wall Street Journal reported that Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) will make sharp cuts in its investment banking division this week.
• The Wall Street Journal reported that Live Nation Inc's (NYSE: LYV) Chairman, Michael Cohl, stepped down down as a director and executive to end the strategy feud with CEO Michael Rapino. over how to pursue the "360 deals" with music superstars.
• The Financial Times reported that there are worries that investment banks will accelerate the pace of their layoffs this summer, after it became known that The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) gave pink slips to workers in its investment banking division last week. Goldman is now expected to lay off up to 10% of the workers at the division.

• New Jersey put its $150M center for stem cell research on hold, the Star Ledger reported, eight months after ground was broken on the project.

Newspaper wrap-up: Google's plans for cellphone delayed originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 23 Jun 2008 08:47:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.