Investors may finally have heard the credulity of people like me, Tim Beyers of Motley Fool, and any number of Microsoft employees. The stock traded up 27 cents, or 1.17%, to $23.44 on about-average volume. Of course, the stock still sits at its lowest price in the last four years, despite the fact that the company is both (a) profitable and (b) still dominating the world in its usual way.

Oddly, the price increase came on a day in which the Microsoft news was dominated by a rather negative spin; everyone is wondering why the company changed the name of MSN adCenter to Microsoft adCenter. Says Jennifer Slegg of Search Engine Watch, "I am not sure that rebranding from MSN to Microsoft is the best decision for adCenter, but it is certainly a decision that will get people talking." Evidently, talk is enough for a 1% runup. As Martha says, that's a good thing.

The big news today from eBay's analyst day was that Meg Whitman was promising: now, with even more revenue growth! Her presentation, and that of the other executives from eBay proper, PayPal and Skype, were really great. Evidently, either (a) you investors weren't watching or (b) without the analysts to tell you if it was good, you weren't ready to pull the trigger. After all, if a company talks to the analysts through market close, how can they affect the market? The stock was down a teeny bit, six cents, to $34.11, on a bit better-than-average volume.

Well. If you were online with me, you were armed with more info (you know, to toot my own horn, and all). I filled you in about eBay's view of their craigslist investment; how they planned to create synergies with Skype; how proud was the company of their 7% of worldwide long distance minutes; how PayPal will soon let you buy used books at your neighbor's yard sale with your mobile phone; and how $3 billion in cash was withdrawn from ATMs via PayPal debit cards. If I had to pick one thing I came away from those hours of watching Meg & team present (I mean, something substantial... I could go on forever about fashion choices but this isn't the style blog) it was that they really believe in their vision and they are fantastic at describing it. I was feeling a little scared off by the stock's rich price, but after listening to Meg, Bob, and the Skype and PayPal execs tell me about how they're going to change the world? Boy do I want to be along for the ride.

I'd like to know what all those sellers are thinking. Really! I mean, look at this chart. There we have it, down down and more down. MSFT is now at its 52-week low -- in fact, the stock hasn't been this low since October 4, 2002. I know! Today, the stock closed at $23.17, down 3.5%. It's now trading 15% below its high last week. Ouch. Guess everyone does believe Gartner's report about Vista delays.

Those who are selling right now? In my opinion, it's irrational depression. Why sell at the low? Panic, I suppose, but it seems highly, um, foolish. Tim Beyers, he who is Motley Foolish but not, you know, foolish, agrees. He argues that, even if you buy the idea that Microsoft might be taking second fiddle to Google (the Evil-Empire-come-lately), it's still a good company to own. After all, they are rife with cash-ola and they absolutely, totally dominate the average laptop. Come on now, look around you at the coffee shop. How many laptops don't have Windows-based software?

Unless you're tapping away at my favorite worker-owned coffee collective (where everyone either has an iBook or a built-from-scratch Linux geek-machine), the answer is: few. If I owned Mr. Softee right now, I'd be holding. And if I owned a pile full of cash right now, I'd be buying. There may be more down. But I'd bet at least some of my children's future on the long-term up.

As Microsoft shareholders let out a gigantic sigh that erased $2.8 billion in market cap, the company's stock flirted with its 52-week low of $24.00 during the afternoon. It finally closed just barely above that solid line, at $24.01.

Contributing to the terrible performance and two-and-a-half-times-average volume: the prediction by Gartner that Microsoft's latest and greatest (?) operating system, Vista, might be delayed another three months. According to one Microsoft employee, it's so not true, and Microsoft insists that it will still make the November 2006 (volume license customers) and January 2007 (everybody else) launch dates. Shareholders? Clearly are not drinking the Kool-aid.

Say it with me [long deep breath] ***SIGH***.