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Cramer on BloggingStocks: General Mills will kill with lower costs

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this consumer-products titan has weathered the storm and should enjoy lower inputs.

General Mills (NYSE: GIS) (Cramer's Take) hits another 52-week high. This company has been one of the great standout performers this year, just a juggernaut, even though it is a gigantic buyer of grains and a huge user of cardboard boxes and plastic wrapping. Plus, it needs gasoline to deliver product. Some of this move has to be attributed to projections of huge declines in raw costs. Those are going to happen, as we know from the commodities.

But perhaps it is worth noting that few packaged goods companies -- perhaps Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) (Cramer's Take) is an exception -- dominate and innovate as well as GIS does. It has always been one of the great brand producers and acquirers, and also a company that can take out costs better than anyone. When I compare how a Unilever (NYSE: UN) (Cramer's Take) or a Clorox (NYSE: CLX) (Cramer's Take) has handled the raw costs to how General Mills has performed, it is almost as if GIS is a pharmaceutical with no raw cost exposure whatsoever.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: General Mills will kill with lower costs

Procter & Gamble: Great quarter, even greater cash flow

Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) reported its Q4 and full-year results on Tuesday. The numbers looked very good to me (save for one, which I'll get to). P&G was up over 3% on Tuesday. Granted, the Dow saw one heck of a rally yesterday, but even so, P&G deserved a bid just due to its blue-chip corporate performance.

Revenues for the quarter increased 10%, and adjusted earnings per diluted share jumped over 19% to $0.80. For the year, revenues increased 9% and adjusted earnings per diluted share rose 15% to $3.50. As I stated in my earnings preview from the other day, Wall Street was looking for adjusted earnings to be around $0.78 per share. So P&G beat by two pennies.

Of course, the earnings beat is nice, but cash flow is even nicer. In fact, management likes to evaluate itself by comparing its free cash flow to net earnings. P&G would like the so-called "free cash flow productivity" metric to equal at least 90%. Well, shareholders need not worry, since productivity in these terms was 96% for the quarter and 106% for the fiscal year. Free cash flow for the year expanded by 21%, and it was more than enough to power P&G's great dividend.

Continue reading Procter & Gamble: Great quarter, even greater cash flow

New "Brandcaster" technology to aid web distribution of coupons

I love coupons; who doesn't? They are, arguably, one of the most important marketing tools used by companies such as Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL), and General Mills (NYSE: GIS). I also love coupon distribution on the web, so I'm hoping a new technology reported on by BusinessWeek really takes off.

A company called Coupons, Inc. has developed a system dubbed Brandcaster. It essentially follows Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG) model of monetization. Depending on where you are on the web and what you are looking at, the Brandcaster will determine if a coupon may be applicable to you. It will then try to get you to access the coupon and print it up. Web sites who use the application will be given a cut of revenues generated from successful coupon printings. So, speaking hypothetically, if I'm on a site that's dedicated to video games, maybe this Brandcaster thing will someday tell me that I can print up a coupon allowing me to get $5 off a new software title.

If this is promoted properly, and if the value to consumer companies can be adequately communicated, then I think Coupons, Inc. has a hit on its hands. Like I say, people love coupons, and I think they are more likely to act on printing out a coupon then they are to, say, buy a product immediately online through a banner ad. I see this kind of advertising as being more effective over the long-term than other kinds of ads.

Continue reading New "Brandcaster" technology to aid web distribution of coupons

Colgate-Palmolive brushes up on double-digit growth

Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL) reported Q1 results on Wednesday. By now, you know the drill when it comes to consumer-products companies -- weak-dollar-helped-and-commodity-costs-did-not-help. I gotta say, though, that Colgate-Palmolive showed that vigilance in terms of costs can have a positive impact, and that a business does not have to be defined by inflation.

Net sales exploded to the upside by more than 15% (again, currency effects). Net income likewise charged higher, rising 17% to 90 cents per share on an adjusted basis. I know -- superlatives such as "exploded" and "charged higher" might seem a bit hyper here, but it's always cool when a consumer-products company hits those double-digit increases. Colgate-Palmolive, like Clorox (NYSE: CLX) and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), leverages its stable of brands to drive growth in cash flows (Procter & Gamble, by the way, also recently reported quarterly results). This worked like a charm, since cash flow from operations during the past three-month period increased 17%. Way to go, management. Margins, however, were pressured, as can be expected, and they will continue to be pressured in the near future.

The earnings release mentioned the flagship Colgate toothpaste product -- I am a user of the brand, and in fact, I bought a new variety earlier this week. I've said it before and I'll say it again -- the supermarket is full of investing ideas, and Colgate-Palmolive is one of them. The company had a great quarter, it beat expectations according to Briefing.com -- albeit by the usual suspect, namely the "proverbial penny" -- and it seems solid enough. A potential core holding, Colgate-Palmolive should do well over the coming year. Yesterday's 6.7% drop in the price of the shares could have been seen as a buying opportunity for patient, long-term investors, but I'll concede that the stock could languish for a little while.

Disclosure: I don't own shares in any of the companies mentioned; positions can change at any time.

WD-40's Q2 results didn't impress me

WD-40 (NASDAQ: WDFC) issued its Q2 earnings report yesterday after the close of the market trading session -- and it wasn't full of great news. The top line was essentially flat as net sales dipped 0.5% to almost $79 million. Earnings came in at $0.51 per diluted share versus $0.52 per diluted share in the year-ago time frame.

Another negative aspect to the report was the statement of cash flows. WD-40 took in a lot less in terms of net cash from operations this time around, as changes in working capital and other items affected the flow. There's also a lot less cash on the balance sheet. And, sorry to say shareholders, but WD-40 missed analyst expectations by the proverbial penny. Investors shouldn't always be concerned with Wall Street expectations, but here's something that shareholders will be concerned with: the company lowered its earnings outlook. Management says that revenue growth will probably be somewhere between 4% and 8% as opposed to the originally expected range of between 7% and 10% -- any hopes for double-digit appreciation are now history. Net income per share is now expected to fall in a range between $1.80 and $1.90 versus a previous range of $1.83 and $1.93.

Well, now, what do we make of all this? It was a disappointing report, no question. But WD-40 has some decent brands in its portfolio, including the flagship lubricant, although its brand collection isn't necessarily on par with others, such as Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL), and Clorox (NYSE: CLX). WD-40 isn't the current best play in the consumer-goods department at the moment, in my humble opinion. Some will point out that the stock's yield is attractive right now at 3%, but its dividend history isn't as good as others in terms of quarterly hikes. I'm not very bullish on WD-40; maybe I will be at a later date.

Disclosure: I don't own shares in any of the companies mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Procter & Gamble proves yet again that dividends rule

Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) is one of my favorite companies. No, I don't own it; I should, I know, but I can't own everything. Nevertheless, I love P&G for its great collection of brands that dominate supermarket shelves. And, I also love that blue-chip dividend it pays out.

Well, the company announced that shareholders are going to get a raise. The quarterly payout increased 14% to $0.40 per share. Can P&G afford to do this? How does one check? Well, you'll want to look at a company's cash flow. P&G's latest 10Q shows that, for the latest six-month period, the Dow component generated $7.4 billion in operational cash. P&G spent about $1.2 billion for capital expenditures. Dividend obligations were $2.3 billion. Adding up the dividend payments and the cap-ex requirements shows that $7.4 billion amply took care of both financial activities. Yeah, I'd say that P&G can afford the nice double-digit increase.

Here's another nifty thing. Since the new annual payment is $1.60 per share, investors can buy P&G shares all the way up to a share price of $80 and still get a 2% yield. Yeah, that might not sound like much, but an excellent, dependable, low-risk blue-chip equity with a yield 2% or higher isn't something to dismiss. So, like PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), and Clorox (NYSE: CLX), Procter & Gamble is a safe consumer-goods stock that should be looked to as a potential core holding. This latest dividend increase offers further evidence of such thinking.

Disclosure: I don't own shares in any of the companies mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Options update 1-17-08: Clorox volatility elevated into EPS and outlook

Clorox (NYSE: CLX) closed at $62.46 Wednesday.

CLX will report EPS on February 4. BMO Capital says: "CLX's P/E of 17.1x our CY2009 estimate is at the lower end of a 15-year range."

CLX February option implied volatility of 26 is above its 26-week average of 20 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst initiations: FIG, ESI and KNDL

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Fortress, ITT Educational Service and Kendle International were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Fortress Investment Group (NYSE: FIG) was initiated with a Hold rating and $18.50 target at Jefferies. The firm expects near-term volatility given the increasingly difficult private equity market.
  • Banc of America assumed coverage of ITT Educational Service (NYSE: ESI) with a Buy rating and $130 target and believes the recent weakness creates an attractive entry point as they see continued margin expansion and upside to Street estimates.
  • Susquehanna expects Kendle International (NASDAQ: KNDL) to benefit from positive trends in the Clinical Research Organization industry, expanded customer base and geographical reach, integration of Charles Rivers Laboratories (NYSE: CRL), and backlog. The firm started shares with a Positive rating.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Clorox continues to brighten portfolios

If recent market turbulence has dented your investment confidence, or if you're concerned about a continued U.S. economic slowdown heading into 2008, consider purchasing Clorox's shares.

Look for The Clorox Company (NYSE: CLX) to keep rolling along. Or, put another way, when will bleach use go out-of-style?

The world's best-known bleach brand has further impressed investors with its lesser-known, but profitable operations: Specialty Group [cat liter, charcoal products, dressings and sauces, Glad brand bags/containers], along with its International Group, which sell products in Latin America and Asia that are similar to those in North America.

What's more, bleach remains a key revenue driver, but in fiscal 2007 Glad trash bags accounted for 14% of revenue, Clorox about 12%.

The risks? Analysts have their eye on rising commodity costs, but CLX's cost cutting programs and pricing power should more than compensate for that concern, in the immediate years ahead. That fact, combined with the company's demonstrated proficiency in marketing, make CLX a low-risk investment. CLX's p/e of 19 is not low, but it's reasonable given its growth prospects and the amount safety the company affords.

The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for CLX are $3.40 to $3.99.

The First Call mean rating for CLX is: Hold. [15 firms.] Mean 2007 target: $67.40. [high: $78, low: $58.]

Stock Analysis: Clorox is a low-risk stock. Consider buying Clorox's shares if your portfolio needs a consumer defensive stock. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 1 year should be rewarded from CLX's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares of this company: $44.

Earnings highlights: Crocs, Exxon, Kraft, P&G, Sirius, and others

Lots more quarterly reports rolled out this past week, and here are some highlights of earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Crocs, Exxon, Kraft, P&G, Sirius, and others

Clorox profit drops, will purchase Burt's Bees

Clorox Co. (NYSE: CLX) reported a Q1 profit drop this morning on the back of raw material cost increases. It also announced that it will pay just under a billion ($925 million) for Burt's Bees, a leading provider of natural health care products. Burt's Bees has moved from health food stores and organic markets to the mainstream mass market in the last few years, probably marketing itself to be sold. Apparently, it worked.

Clorox's net income dropped to $111 million ($0.76 per share) from $112 million from the year-ago period, which could be seen as a slight decline based on commodity price swings in 2007 alone. Sales for the Q1 period did rise to $1.24 billion, a 6.7% increase.

Clorox indeed said in its earnings release that corn and soybean prices were main factors in the profit decline. Those two food commodities are used in its Hidden Valley food products (namely salad dressings). Resin prices rose in the quarter as well to their highest levels ever, affecting plastic products such as Glad trash bag products and bottles used to hold its namesake bleach.

All in all, Clorox's quarter was not bad considering the commodity turmoil it has exposure to, but I have to question the valuation of Burt's Bees. How did the company come up with a valuation of nearly a billion dollars? Clorox, are you listening?

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage

Clorox in the black

The Clorox Company (NYSE: CLX) Q3 2007 earnings showed across the board sales and volume growth in all three of the company's major business segments. Net earnings were $129 million, or $0.84 per diluted share, a $19 million increase over Q3 2006 numbers. Quarterly EPS diluted included $0.04 per share, $10 million, equally divided between restructuring costs and upgraded IT services company wide. Globally, sales were up 7% to $1.24 billion for the quarter, while volume increased 8%. Clorox CEO Don Knauss credits three factors with contributing to Clorox's success: cost savings, price increases, and lower commodity costs.

Compared to Q3 2006, Clorox's Household Group division showed sales growth of 5%, volume growth of 9%, and 8% increase in pretax earnings. These figures were driven in part by record sales of Clorox disinfecting wipes, and increased shipments of Armor All and STP auto-care products. This division primarily services the North American market.

The Specialty Products Group showed 7% sales growth, 6% volume growth, and a hefty 19% increase in pretax earnings. The winner in this product category was Fresh Step kitty litter, which has increased sales for four straight quarters. Kingsford charcoal and Glad trash bags were also category leaders.

While Clorox makes most of its revenues in the North American market, it shows its largest growth potential in its international segment, where sales growth increased 16%, volume grew 13%, and pretax earnings increased 15%. Latin America is proving to be a lucrative market for laundry and cleaning products. This is good as the Australian market showed declines in both sales and volume.

For FY 2007, Clorox anticipates sales growth of 3-5% and diluted EPS of $3.21-$3.27, including $0.09 diluted EPS for continuing restructuring costs and IT upgrades through 2008. The stock closed on Friday at $67.07, down $0.01. At PE of $21.53, Clorox compares favorably (slightly) with Proctor & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) at $21.73, and Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL) with a PE of $24.42. Potential investors will want to wait until Clorox senior management rolls out its detailed restructuring plan, scheduled to be made public on May 24. Clorox may shed low-performing, low-margin brands, and may rearrange spending to target more potential growth opportunities outside North America.

Cramer's break-up plays

On today's STOP TRADING! on CNBC, Cramer said he thought the ads against Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) on the terrorism link were too much (more data here).

Cramer said Vonage Holdings Corp. (NYSE:VG), should keep its mouth shut and not issue press releases, after a ruling against the company sent the stock down 22%.

Cramer has some hidden value plays. He looked around at others that could actually be broken-up: ConAgra Foods, Inc. (NYSE:CAG) and The Clorox Co. (NYSE:CLX) could both easily break-up. He also thinks that railroads could be Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE:UNP), Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC), and CSX Corp. (NYSE:CSX) could all break up and they are all pro-shareholder.

Analyst upgrades 3-21-07: Tiffany & Co, Best Buy & Office Depot all upgraded today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: ABN Amro Holding NV (ABN), Werner Enterprises, Inc (WERN), Affiliated Computer Services, Inc (ACS) and Express Scripts (ESRX) were today's more notable upgrades:
  • Citigroup upgraded ABN Amro Holding NV (NYSE: ABN) to Hold from Sell as the firm believes value can be realized by breaking the company up and selling units to top bidders.
  • UBS upgraded both Werner Enterprises (NASDAQ: WERN) and Affiliated Computer Services to Neutral from Reduce, based on valuation.
  • Express Scripts (NASDAQ: ESRX) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Leerink Swann.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • JP Morgan upgraded Clorox Co (NYSE: CLX) to Overweight from Neutral.
  • Bank of America upgraded shares of Tiffany & Co (NYSE: TIF) to Buy from Neutral with a $52 target. The firm believes Tiffany can improve profitability through better operations, efficiency and downside protection from the strong luxury cycle.
  • Credit Suisse added Office Depot, Inc (NYSE: ODP) to its U.S. Focus List. The firm believes that Office Depot has the most attractive risk/reward profile in the industry and sees limited downside risk given recent weakness and reduced investor expectations.
  • Kaufman upgraded Best Buy Co, Inc (NYSE: BBY) to Buy from Hold with a $59 target.
  • Goldman Sachs upgraded Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) to Buy from Neutral with a $33 target, citing valuation.
  • Lehman Brothers upgraded Cadbury Schweppes plc (NYSE: CSG) to Overweight from Equal Weight.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Cramer goes defensive on names

On today's STOP TRADING! on CNBC Cramer talked the subprime meltdown and this morning's 9% selloff in China and said it suggests a worldwide slowdown that will force the Fed to cut interest rates. He thinks this is the pain before the rate cuts. He likes the 4% yielders right now. He noted The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:P&G), PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE:PEP), Kellogg Co. (NYSE:K), The Clorox Co. (NYSE:CLX), Kimberly-Clark Corp. (NYSE:KMB), Altria Group Inc. (NYSE:MO).

He will start looking at Bank of America tomorrow and the 4% yielders in finance. He thinks that the cyclicals and Latin America could fall a while more. He still likes Charter Communications as a winner on the bond market rally; he also likes the oil drillers as not sensitive to rates.

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Last updated: September 05, 2008: 12:19 AM

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