"Coal miner Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU) looks hot," says Leo Fasciocco, who focuses on stocks that have broken out from technical basing patterns.
In his The Ticker Tape Digest, he explains, "The stock rose above its break points of $81.20, hitting a new high." He adds, "With net set to surge 70% this year, we see an upside target of $105 per share."
"Peabody, based in St. Louis, is a major producer of coal with annual revenues of $4.7 billion. BTU's coal fuels more than 10% of U.S. electricity generation and 2% worldwide.
"The company has mining operations in Appalachia, the Powder River Basin, and the U.S. Southwest and Midwest, as well as Australia and Venezuela. It also markets, brokers, and trades coal, and develops electricity-generation projects.
"Technically, BTU has broken out from a six-week flat base today with expanding volume. It is part of the strong coal group, which has been one of the strongest acting sectors of the market.
"We're continuing to emphasize conventional energy, solar, shipping, agriculture, and commodities," says Harry Domash, who adds, "But one industry we've overlooked so far is coal."
In his Winning Investing, he explains, "This month, we're adding two coal industry picks. One, a short-term play to capture the action in hot coal mining stocks, and the other, a long-term dividend-paying investment."
"We've avoided coal primarily because environmentally speaking, coal is bad news. Coal is mostly used to generate electricity and to power steel plants. Crude oil prices are so high because supply can barely meet demand.
"Think about what would happen to oil prices if coal wasn't available. Due to increasing global demand, coal prices are moving up dramatically and it doesn't make sense for us to ignore that.
"For longer-term investors, we recommend Natural Resource Partners (NYSE: NRP), a master limited parternship. The MLP owns coal properties in the Appalachia, Illinois Basin, and the Western U.S. NRP leases its properties to mine operators.
"Profits from coal may be even bigger than from gold, which is viewed as coal's more glamorous and higher profile rival," notes Nick Vardy.
The editor of The Global Bull Market Alert explains, "The Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSE: KOL) enables you to buy a basket of 39 coal-related companies from 12 different countries." Here's his overwiew of the exchange-traded fund.
"Despite its status as the most 'environmentally incorrect' source of energy, coal provides 25% of the world's energy and generates about half of the electricity in every state in the United States, except California.
"Coal plays a key role in the production of steel, with approximately 70% of the global steel production depending on coal as a source of energy. And the price of coal has been soaring to record levels.
"Oil prices have made the headlines recently," says Martin Hutchinson in The Money Map Reporter. "But the miracle fuel of the 19th Century is coal, the forgotten fossil fuel."
"Coal is located primarily in politically stable, friendly countries - most notably the U.S. market itself. Coal prices have zoomed northward during the past year. The current spot price is around $135 per metric ton, more than double the level of a year ago. Meanwhile, coal production is running way ahead of forecasts.
"In 2005, the World Coal Institute reported production of 4,970 million metric tons, up 78% over 25 years. The main reason for coal's growth is that 80% of China's power needs and 65% of India's come from coal-fired stations.
"Since both India and China are expected to quadruple their power consumption by 2030, most of that increase must come from coal-fired stations. What are the best buys in the sector?
"Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) is fired up from its first quarter earnings; the results were well above analysts expectations," notes Joseph Hargett.
And with 13.5 million shares of the stock sold short, the analyst with Schaeffer's Research explains, "Shorts account for about 9.5% of the stock's float, which could result in a short squeeze." Here is his review.
"Net income nearly tripled to $81.1 million, or 56 cents per share. Revenue for the auarter rose to $699.4 million from $571.3 million. For the year, Arch Coal lifted its earnings estimate to a range of $2.40 to $2.80 per share, versus Wall Street's consensus view for $2.43 per share.
"Digging into the report, the company noted that profit margins were particularly wide in the Central Appalachia region, while higher prices for coal and cost controls also contributed to the results. Arch noted that the average sales price per ton rose 9.7% to $18.49 from $16.85, while the cash cost per ton rose less than 1% to $13.05 from $12.93.
"Green investing and clean energy may be the politically correct topic at cocktail parties, but coal is the economically correct vehicle for investors," says Ronald Rowland and Brandon Clay.
The editors of All Star Investor explain, "Coal has been an energy source for millennia -- and is still the number #1 source of energy for electric power plants in the world." And, they add, "One of the best places to invest in coal is Consol Energy (NYSE: CNX).
"Prehistoric Chinese are said to have used coal for heating. According to Roman historians, Britain burned coal in the first century. Throughout history, coal has been the primary source of heat in homes.
"Rapidly industrializing nations like China are still dependent upon coal for energy. Overall global consumption has not diminished either. Coal fuels 48% of electricity plant generators. And the trend is heading upward – probably for the next 30 years. Despite the deafening rhetoric, coal is not going away anytime soon. Investors should take notice.
"Despite its dirty image, coal accounts for more than half of US power generation," says Elliott Gue, editor of the industry leading The Energy Strategist.
The advisor explains, "Although crude oil consistently makes the headlines, few realize that US coal prices recently surged to a fresh high." Here, he reviews a new portfolio holding, Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU).
"In addition to rising domestic demand, we are also seeing foreign demand. Indeed, coal accounts for about 50% of Germany's electricity production, 34% in the UK, 17% in Italy and a whopping 93% in Poland.
"Europe doesn't have enough coal production locally to satisfy demand. And now, the problem is that traditional sources of European coal imports aren't readily available.
"As the price of energy soars, I am convinced wealthy countries will turn to the one remaining fossil fuel that is still in abundance: coal," notes growth stock expert Jim Powell.
The editor of Global Changes & Opportunities Report, "Given the high price of oil, the coal-to-liquid fuel industry is starting to take off. One company that should profit handsomely is Headwaters (NYSE: HW)." Here is his review.
"To make coal available for most applications, it must be converted to gasoline and diesel fuel. Fortunately, that process is cost effective when oil costs over $40 a barrel. Since oil is now over twice that price, the coal-to-liquid fuel industry is starting to take off.
"Coal isn't without its critics. When burned, it gives off greenhouse gasses and other pollutants. However, technologies exist that solve those problems. With oil at current levels, it pays to implement the cleanup processes and put coal to work.
"Headwaters should profit handsomely from the growing demand for coal. The company developed technology that changes the chemical composition of coal into high value products, including petrochemicals that are usually made from oil.
Among resource plays, international investing expert Nick Vardy says, "Mechel Open Joint Stock Company (NYSE: MTL) is one of Russia's largest mining and metals companies a producing steel, as well as processed coal and metal products used in mining industries.
In his Global Bull Market Alert, the advisor explains, "Mechel's rise from relative obscurity has been rapid. Rising metals prices and industry consolidation have more than quadrupled Mechel's sales from a mere $1 billion in 2001 to $4.4 billion last year.
"In announcing its first half 2007 in October, Mechel confirmed that its breathtaking growth still is on track. Both business segments -- mining and steel -- demonstrated high operational results. Crude steel production was up 4% year-on-year, with rolled products up 11%. Coal output rose 10%, driven by a 29% rise in steam coal output. Nickel output also rose 22%.
"But it was the company's financial results that knocked analysts' socks off. Revenue rose a whopping 55% to $2.99 billion during the first six months of 2007, compared to the same period of 2006. Earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) rose 136% to $813.7 million.
Jim Trippon, a leading expert on China, conducts his research from offices in both the U.S. and China. The editor of the China Stock Digest explains, "We recently issued a buy recommendation on Yanzhou Coal Mining (NYSE: YZC) and since then, the stock has been sizzling."
The advisor notes, "Industrial production in China continues to rise even faster than the increase in the nation's GDP. Yanzhou Coal is benefiting from a number of developing trends that give us confidence in higher valuations for this company. Unlike many other staple resources, coal prices are not strictly capped by the government, and prices are being squeezed upward by both supply and demand.
"Coal is by far the most important fuel for generating stations. Yanzhou Coal is an industry leader because of its proximity to the industrialized eastern region of China. In addition to being close to major industrial markets, the company operates a number of rail lines, giving it priority in its access to steel and power generation markets.
"Record high oil prices will continue to push the demand for coal. We believe Yanzhou Coal is uniquely positioned to continue to reward investors with stable growth and dividend returns.
"The company saw annual earnings per share growth of more than 100% over the past 12 months compared to the same period a year ago, justifying the estimated P/E ratio of 17. Yanzhou returned a dividend of 1.5% for the trailing 12-month period."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com features the latest investment commentary and favorite stocks of the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
"In any industry, one of the most sure-footed means of keeping profits steady is to own the suppliers of production means -- the old 'invest in the picks and shovels' approach," explains Neil George in Personal Finance.
He says, "For refiners, it means pipe, compressors, and the other bits used to crack crude into further profitable products." Here, he looks at a trio of favorites: Dresser-Rand Group Inc. (NYSE: DRC), Shaw Group Inc. (NYSE: SGR), and Tenaris (NYSE: TS).
"Dresser Rand is a leading global producer of highly specialized compressors and turbines, nearly 95% of which are used in the energy business. Compressors are used extensively in refineries; they're a crucial part of equipment used to process heavy and sour crude oils. The reactions used to process these more-complex crudes require generating extreme pressure and temperature.
"Dresser's products are also used to process Canadian oil sands. Dresser is also involved in some high-tech deepwater equipment work. The company has designed a subsea compressor and separator for Norway's Statoil.
"This equipment literally sits on the seafloor; the compressor helps to separate gas from oil and transport these commodities by subsea pipeline to distant floating production platforms.
David Fried has developed an industry-leading reputation by focusing on companies buying back their shares. Here, his Buyback Letter looks at EnCana Corp. (NYSE: ECA).
"Canadian oil producer EnCana is among the largest holders of oil and gas resource lands in onshore North America, has an extensive drilling inventory with some 40,000 well locations, strong production and reserves growth, and robust project returns. It is focused on natural gas and in-situ oil sands.
"As the dangers of global warming have become more apparent, major energy companies are attempting to capture carbon dioxide and lock it away where it won't trap more heat. Industry leader EnCana has embarked on a pilot project to improve recovery rates from mature oil wells by using carbon dioxide.
"EnCana buys carbon dioxide produced by a power plant and ships it via pipeline to its Weyburn field in southern Saskatchewan. EnCana injects the gas into its oil field, where it reduces the viscosity of the oil, allowing the company to increase its recovery from the field.
"BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) should be part of any investor's portfolio," says leading energy and resources expert Elliott Gue. The editor of The Energy Strategist explains, "China is both the world's largest coal producer and its preeminent consumer. Demand for coal in Asia is growing rapidly, and China is moving from being an important net exporter to a net importer."
In light of the tight supply demand balance in Asia, he states that the obvious question is where all those coal imports will come from. One country he says that will dominate the export trade for the foreseeable future is Australia.
Gue says, "Australia has large reserves and production capabilities. And it is located relatively close to their key export markets. Meanwhile, Australia is a politically stable country with a solid legal system and a large, liquid stock market. In short: Australia is a great and politically safe place to invest."
Australian-based BHP Billiton is the world's largest producer of exported thermal and coking coal, generating around 37 million tons of met coal and 88 million tons of thermal coal annually, according to the advisor.
If you could buy only one commodity stock, what should it be? Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, long-standing experts in the natural resources sector, think that one stock should be BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP).
The editors of The Aden Forecast explain, "The hot Asian markets are keeping demand strong for commodities. Indeed, the commodity move has been gearing up, one by one. Some markets will be stronger than others at times, but they are all in a major rise with demand being the driving force, which makes this mega move even more powerful."
The advisors continue, "China and Asia in general have been booming for many years now. The slowing economy in the U.S. caused concern that the fiery growth in Asia would cool down. It certainly could with time, but so far there are no signs of this at all."
Meanwhile, they notes, demand for raw materials remains and 2007 may end up seeing China's economy expand at the fastest pace in 12 years. To benefit from this trend, the sisters says, "BHP Billiton has long been one of our favorites because it's the best way to stay invested in the whole raw materials sector."
They notes that Billiton is the world's largest mining organization, stating, "It's a leader in steel making, it's the world's third largest producer of copper and nickel, second largest exporter of coal, fourth largest producer of uranium... and the list goes on." They conclude, "So if you have to buy just one natural resource company, let it be BHP."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com features the latest investment ideas and market commentary from the financial newsletter community.
same situation here...too much summary/too little analysis
In his Swing Trader portfolio, Melvin Pasternak looks for technically strong short-term trades. Among his latest "long" ideas is Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), which explores for and mines coal and develops technologies to convert coal to fuels such as natural gas.
Pasternak bases his recommendations on rather sophisticated technical indicators such as doji candle formations, relative strength, Bollinger bands and MACD.
For those unfamiliar with these terms, one can simply note that he considers the stock both fundamentally favorable, and technically poised to move higher. He explains, "BTU has had a great run, going from near $10 a share in early 2004 to the mid-$70s in 2006. From there, BTU pulled back substantially, reaching a low of $32.81 in September 2006 before rebounding.
For the more technically-inclined, he says, "For the past several months, BTU has consolidated, establishing what appears to be a stage I base. In the last several weeks, the shares have broken out above their 30-week moving average (which is again beginning to slope upward), signaling the possible beginning of a stage II advance.
"Despite forming a doji candle, the candle remained outside the upper Bollinger band, which is a continuation signal. The relative strength line has broken a prolonged downtrend and is back above its own moving average for the first time since the summer of 2006.
"BTU has formed an ascending triangle with resistance at $50. Just above that, there is additional resistance at $52.75. ADX is on a buy signal and MACD is bullishly trading up through the zero line. My target on Peabody is $64.95 with a stop loss at $41.89."
For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.