Although short selling -- the practice of selling borrowed shares with the hope of repaying the loan by buying back the shares at a lower price -- goes against the American belief that stocks always go up, I have long been fascinated with it. Short Stories discusses what works, what doesn't, and what some of the leading lights in shorting stocks think about its opportunities and threats. I describe possible short trades and I seek your comments and questions for story ideas. I don't offer any investment advice and I don't trade on any of the posts I write.

If you had followed my suggestion back on April 4th to sell short shares of Coast Financial Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: CFHI) -- when it traded at $6.90 -- and cover your position on Monday morning at $3.90, you could lock in a return of 77% -- pretty good for about six weeks' risk.

Based on my analysis of its first quarter 2007 10Q filed May 10th, here are the reasons why I think CFHI has tumbled:

• Net loss increased 7.7 times. CFHI's Q1 2007 net loss of $2.4 million was 7.7 times its net loss in Q1 2006.
• Provision for credit loss up 11-fold. CFHI's Q1 2007 provision for credit losses of $1.4 million was 10.7 times its Q1 2006 provision. Meanwhile its nonperforming loans increased 38-fold to $38 million in Q1 2007.
• Many loans to bankrupt developer. CFHI's construction-to-permanent loan portfolio was hit by the downturn in the Florida real estate market and the failure of a local builder -- Construction Compliance -- with whom many CFHI borrowers had contracts to build their homes.
• Regulatory investigation of CFHI's operations. The FDIC and Florida bank regulators have recently completed an examination of CFHI and "are conducting an ongoing investigation of its operations."
• Shareholder lawsuits. CFHI is being sued by shareholders who allege that it "materially mislead the investing public by issuing false and misleading statements and omitting to disclose material information concerning CFHI's operation and performance of its residential lending department, particularly as it related to these loans."

And while I would not fault an investor who chose to take a 77% profit by covering an April 4th short position on CFHI, I think it will decline further. Do you agree? Do you have any short candidates you'd like me to examine?

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Coast Financial.

Short Stories: Coast Financial's coast getting murkier originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 20 May 2007 14:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Although short selling -- the practice of selling borrowed shares with the hope of repaying the loan by buying back the shares at a lower price -- goes against the American belief that stocks always go up, I have long been fascinated with it. Short Stories discusses what works, what doesn't, and what some of the leading lights in shorting stocks think about its opportunities and threats. I describe possible short trades and I seek your comments and questions for story ideas. I don't offer any investment advice and I don't trade on any of the posts I write.

Monday the Wall Street Journal noted that two of the worst performing stocks in the first quarter were NovaStar Financial, Inc. (NYSE: NFI) and Bally Total Fitness, Inc. (NYSE: BFT) -- both of which I suggested shorting last year. Looking for some new short ideas? Last month I was in Florida where the real estate market is tanking.

Reading about a busted residential real estate development there in the Sarasota Herald-Tribune gave me another idea for short stories: Coast Financial Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: CFHI). Although its market capitalization has tumbled 59% to $44.9 million in the last year, CFHI could file for bankruptcy. How so? In a nutshell, Coast lent money to Florida real estate developers who are going belly up. As a result it's at risk of not having enough cash to pay a $12 million portion of its long-term debt which is due this year.

Continue reading Short Stories: Will Coast Financial drown in a sea of bad debt?

Short Stories: Will Coast Financial drown in a sea of bad debt? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 04 Apr 2007 17:29:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.