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Today's technical outlook: Is the VIX signaling an end to the bear market?

The struggle between the bulls and bears continued on Friday with what appeared to be a victory for the bears. And, long-term, they do have the edge since there is little doubt that every major index is still pointing south.

Friday's close at 8,001 on the Dow surely got the bulls' attention, as 8,000 appears to have some psychological importance to the investing public. But it has little technical significance.

The support line that has held since November (with the exception of the bear trap of Nov. 20 and Nov. 21) is actually at around 7,940. And the numbers that most technicians refer to as "the" market's support is at the zone between S&P 500 800 and 820.

For guidance at crucial moments, I prefer to check out the most reliable internal and sentiment indicators.

Continue reading Today's technical outlook: Is the VIX signaling an end to the bear market?

The week in preview: Earnings expectations for techs, Canadian banks

Results for the tech stocks in last week's preview were a mixed bag, some beats, some misses, some in line. By and large, expectations for tech companies reporting results this week remain high, though. Here's what analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are anticipating in the way of earnings, as compared to the same period of the previous year.

Continue reading The week in preview: Earnings expectations for techs, Canadian banks

Analyst upgrades: BCS, CYN and BAESY

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Barclays, City National and BAE Systems were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Morgan Stanley upgraded shares of Barclays (NYSE:BCS) to Overweight from Equal Weight after the company announced plans to raise capital and disclosed no further write-downs.
  • Keefe Bruyette lifted City National (NYSE:CYN) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation, as they believe the company should outperform peers in terms in credit quality.
  • Societe Generale upgraded shares of BAE Systems (Other OTC:BAESY) to Buy from Hold to reflect the company's earnings visibility.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Analyst downgrades: EMC, ACGY, CASY, WGOV, SEE and COCO

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Acergy, Casey's General and Corinthian Colleges were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Citigroup downgraded shares of Acergy (NASDAQ: ACGY) to Sell from Hold as they see risk to the company's backlog and believes the recent share rally is not supported by business operations.
  • Casey's General (NASDAQ: CASY) was downgraded at Friedman Billings to Underperform from Market Perform citing headwinds that include weak gas comps.
  • Banc of America downgraded shares of Corinthian Colleges (NASDAQ: COCO) to Neutral from Buy as they believe the post-legislation lending overhang will limit further share upside until COCO can show its students can access federal funds with minimal disruption.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Bernstein cut EMC Corp (NYSE: EMC) to Market Perform from Outperform.
  • Baird lowered Woodward Governor (NASDAQ: WGOV) to Neutral from Outperform.
  • Merrill downgraded Sealed Air (NYSE: SEE) and Bemis (BMS) to Sell from Neutral.

Analyst downgrades: Corinthian Colleges, MSC Industrial, HBOS Plc

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Corinthian Colleges, MSC Industrial and HBOS Plc were today's noteworthy downgrades:

  • Piper downgraded shares of Corinthian Colleges (NASDAQ: COCO) to Neutral from Buy as they expect the company to face difficulty maintaining Title IV lending at its high default rate schools.
  • Jefferies downgraded shares of MSC Industrial (NYSE: MSM) to Hold from Buy on valuation, as there is not enough upside to their $50 target to maintain a Buy rating
  • Credit Suisse lowered HBOS Plc (OTC: HBOOY) to Underperform from Neutral to reflect the weakening housing and mortgage environment.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Analyst upgrades: TEVA, NVAX, COCO, FIC and TEN

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Teva Pharma, Novavax, Corinthian Colleges, Fair Isaac and Tenneco were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Friedman Billings upgraded Teva Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ: TEVA) to Outperform from Market Perform following Teva's better-than-expected Q3 report and guidance.
  • Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) to Buy from Neutral based on positive expectations for Ph I/IIa pandemic influenza data, the start of clinical trials for seasonal influenza, and expected announcement of a vaccine product candidate in Q4.
  • Corinthian Colleges (NASDAQ: COCO) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill following its better-than-expected Q1 report and guidance.
  • Citigroup upgraded of Fair Isaac (NYSE: FIC) to Buy from Hold shares to reflect the company's strong Q4 results and improved outlook.
  • Tenneco (NYSE: TEN) was raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia based on valuation and revenue opportunities in commercial truck market.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Market highlights for next week: TiVo (TIVO), Novell (NOVL) to report

Monday August 27
Tuesday August 28
Wednesday August 29
  • TiVo Inc (NASDAQ: TIVO) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 5pm.
  • Novell Inc (NASDAQ: NOVL) to report Q3 earnings; conference call at 5pm.
Thursday August 30
Friday August 31
  • Blyth Inc (NYSE: BTH) to hold Investor Q&A conference call at 2pm.

Analyst initiations 7-16-07: CECO, COCO, HLYS and UTI

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Heelys (HLYS), Audible (ADBL) and Response Genetics (RGDX) were today's most noteworthy initiations:
  • Baird believes Heelys (NYSE: HLYS) is poised to report strong results through FY07, which is not reflected in current valuation, and started shares with an Outperform rating and $47 target.
  • JMP Securities believes a growing number of consumers will opt to acquire books and physical CD audio books digitally over the internet and started shares of Audible (NASDAQ: ADBL) with an Outperform rating and $12.50 target.
  • Caris believes Response Genetics' (NASDAQ: RGDX) diagnostics opportunity may represent a significant long-term growth driver and initiated shares with a Buy rating and $7.50 target...
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst upgrades 4-04-07: Hewlett-Packard & Coldwater Creek upgraded today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Weyerhaeuser Co (WY), Jackson Hewitt Tax Service Inc (JTX), Hewlett-Packard Co (HPQ) and Coldwater Creek Inc (CWTR) were some of today's more noteworthy upgrades:
  • UBS upgraded shares of Weyerhaeuser Co (NYSE: WY) to Neutral from Reduce citing the stock's recent weakness.
  • Morgan Stanley upgraded shares of Jackson Hewitt Tax Service (NYSE: JTX) to Equal Weight from Underweight on valuation as the firm believes yesterday's sell-off was overdone.
  • Coldwater Creek (NASDAQ: CWTR) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Bank of America based on the company's favorable risk/reward.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • BB&T upgraded shares of Pacer International, Inc (NASDAQ: PACR) to Buy from Hold citing the company's operational changes and new $100M shares' repurchase.
  • SkyWest, Inc (NASDAQ: SKYW) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Prudential.
  • Bear Stearns upgraded shares of Sonic Corp (NASDAQ: SONC) to Outperform from Peer Perform on expectations of an acceleration in partner drive-in same store sales and system wide unit expansion.
  • Citigroup upgraded Corinthian Colleges, Inc (NASDAQ: COCO) to Buy from Hold after a company visit as the firm believes expectations are finally low enough and recent initiatives are taking hold. Further, Citigroup believes takeover speculation will limit downside as their analysis suggests an LBO could work.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Apollo Group, other education stocks may have bottomed

After peaking at $98 a share in June 2004, Apollo Group' s stock has headed straight downhill and now trades at about $41.

After a great bull run that began in 1995, the industry began to mature and these stocks rolled over.

We blogged earlier today about how Pequot Capital's chief, Art Samberg, likes cotton. He also is looking for a turnaround in publicly traded education stocks. The stocks he likes are Apollo Group (NASDAQ: APOL), Career Education (NASDAQ: CECO) and Corinthian Colleges (NASDAQ: COCO).

Apollo has been putting a lot of money into its on-line community college program, Axia College, which it hopes can accelerate Apollo's growth rate. Management is hopeful Axia will be a feeding tube for its four-year on-line college, University of Phoenix.

Samberg also believes Career Education, which has been a real bloodbath, could be ripe for a turnaround under new management.

Publicly traded education stocks, as an industry, have stayed away from using leveraged balance sheets. Samberg notes that if current valuation persists and if fundamentals start improving, private equity firms could find these companies very attractive.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+203.5210,226.94
NASDAQ+41.622,154.06
S&P 500+23.781,093.08

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 03:57 AM

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