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Commodities Have Been Clobbered over the Past Week

cottonExcept for the safe haven of U.S. treasuries and the U.S. dollar, most other commodities are getting slaughtered in the wake of the Japanese crisis.

Here are some prices of nearby contracts compared to five days ago:

  • WTI crude is trading at $97.68 per barrel, down from $105.
  • Wheat is at $6.89 per bushel, down for $7.89.

Continue reading Commodities Have Been Clobbered over the Past Week

Starbucks and Green Mountain Coffee End Battle for Single Cup Roasters

The market for single cup roasters is estimated at $4 billion, according to Reuters. Single cup coffee roasters are growing in popularity, especially in business offices and waiting rooms. Naturally, coffee roasters like Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) and Starbucks (SBUX) want a piece of the action.

The single cup roasters provide several advantages to having coffee in larger coffee pots. For one thing, coffee which sits for hours in a pot loses some of its fresh flavor or becomes bitter. Enter the single cup roaster. You simply pop a small container of coffee in the machine, and viola, you get a single cup of coffee with little or no mess, and always fresh.

Continue reading Starbucks and Green Mountain Coffee End Battle for Single Cup Roasters

Starbucks Near 52-Week High

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) has been a good holding for those who believed in the company at the 52-week low. Kudos to you if you bought in at $22.50, you certainly have my respect.

The 52-week high for the stock is currently set at $34.79. At the time of this writing, shares were exchanging hands for $34.34. Is now the time to sell? Or should investors bravely hold on for a further ride higher?

Continue reading Starbucks Near 52-Week High

Starbucks Looks to Tap Specialty Coffee Market in India

Starbucks (SBUX) is the world's leading roaster and retailer of specialty coffee. Through its global network of owned and franchised coffee retail outlets, Starbucks offers a wide range of products from coffees and teas to sandwiches and brewing equipment. It competes with McDonald's (MCD), Caribou Coffee and Peet's Coffee in the broader market for specialty coffee.

We estimate that Starbucks' company-owned stores constitute around 46% of our estimated $26.41 value for the company's stock while franchised stores generate an incremental 30%. Our price estimate stands about 18% below the market price.

Continue reading Starbucks Looks to Tap Specialty Coffee Market in India

Palladium: Best Performer of 2010, Hits Nine-Year High

Looking back can be painful, especially if you missed the biggest bull move of the year. The star performer was palladium, which is used in catalytic converters. The metal rallied 95% during 2010, according to the Financial Times.

One major reason for the jump was the belief that Russia has exhausted its stockpiles of palladium that they had accumulated during the Cold War. The big metals trader, Johnson Matthey, said that palladium could swing into a "serious deficit" if sales from the Russian government diminish.

On the futures market, March palladium touched $800 per ounce. Some analysts are forecasting $1,000 per ounce in 2011.

Continue reading Palladium: Best Performer of 2010, Hits Nine-Year High

Tight Sugar and Coffee Supplies Boost Prices

coffee beansThis year we've seen sharp price increases in commodities, especially in the weather sensitive agricultural sector. Coffee and sugar are in the spotlight this week.

Processors who buy raw commodities and process them into consumer products are caught is in a price squeeze. On the one hand they must pay more for the raw product and on the other they are up against consumers who are cost conscious.

Continue reading Tight Sugar and Coffee Supplies Boost Prices

Starbucks and Kraft May Part Ways

Starbucks (SBUX) coffeeIt appears that there is some trouble brewing in the agreement between Starbucks (SBUX) and Kraft (KFT). As part of the agreement, Kraft distributed Starbucks bagged coffee and the Seattle's Best brand in supermarkets and other food retailers. The agreement dates back to 1998 and has grown to $500 million in annual sales (initially the deal net sales of $50 million).

The intentions were made public by Starbucks last night. The latest salvo fired in this java jive is a mere continuation of a fight that has included both companies accusing each other of having "improperly characterized the terms of the pact." According to Kraft, it requires Starbucks to pay the fair-market value of the business along with a premium in "certain instances."

Continue reading Starbucks and Kraft May Part Ways

How Did Commodities Do in October?

One of the broadest measures for commodity prices is the 19-commodities Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index. For October, the index was up 4.8% after an 8.5% gain in September, as reported in Investors.com.

Sugar and cotton started the trend, rising more than 20% each. Corn was up 17% and arabica coffee rose 11%.

Continue reading How Did Commodities Do in October?

Is the Coffee Rally Over?

Stockpiles of coffee in ICE warehouses fell 35% to 201 million bags, Bloomberg news reported. And arabica surplus is the smallest since 2007-2008 at 101 million bags.

Today, December coffee futures are trading at $1.92 per pound, up $2.20 (as of 9:00 a.m. EDT).

Analysts and trade sources are forecasting the end of the coffee rally. That may be true, however, none of the technical indicators are pointing to the top of the market.

Continue reading Is the Coffee Rally Over?

Coffee Prices Surge to a 12-Year High

The price of coffee has surged to a 12-year high. The nearby September futures contract on the IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) traded at 178.75, up 3.2%, the highest price since 1998.

As with most commodity rallies, the market is driven by shortages of premium Arabica beans from Colombia. Last year, supplies of Colombian coffee plunged to a 33-year low of 7.8 million bags, down nearly one-third from 11.1 million bags in 2008.

Based on these numbers, industry executives forecast that prices could rise to $2.00 per pound. At retail you can more than double this price.

Continue reading Coffee Prices Surge to a 12-Year High

McDonald's Eyes Yet Another Market -- Smoothies

Not satisfied to wear the crown among fast-food companies, McDonald's (MCD) continues to strive toward new ways to attract customers into its establishments in the off-peak hours. The company has already launched a salvo at Starbucks (SBUX) with its McCafe concept of lattes and cappuccinos, and now it is moving into the smoothie market. You may remember the company first unveiled the concept at the Winter Olympics, with familiar faces such as Picabo Street endorsing the frozen beverages.

After roughly a year of research and iteration, the smoothies are coming to a McDonald's near you next month, in two flavors -- Strawberry Banana and Wild Berry. Meanwhile, MCD is using some of its Austin and Michigan stores to test "frozen juice blends."

Continue reading McDonald's Eyes Yet Another Market -- Smoothies

Coffee Speculators Get Hammered, Suffer Multimillion-Dollar Losses

Commodities can be a wild and woolly business. The coffee market is a good example. First off, the market is thin, meaning that only a few contracts can push prices up or down.

Coffee prices have been weak for the past two years. It was an easy market to go short. Investment funds and speculators were on the gravy train being on the short side.

Then, out of nowhere a big trader "bought" a large number of contracts with the intention to take delivery. One coffee contract equals 37,500 pounds. To give you an idea of the hundreds of millions of dollars involved, you would need to multiply 37,500 by the price at delivery. The July futures are trading at $144.95, up $7.95 (10:00 p.m. EDT). In London the price is $1,579 per ton, up 20% in just three days.

Continue reading Coffee Speculators Get Hammered, Suffer Multimillion-Dollar Losses

Smoothies Newest Part of McDonald's Beverage Strategy

McDonald's MCD logoIt used to be that McDonald's (MCD) was known for its fast food like Happy Meals, Egg McMuffins and Big Macs. But increasingly, the burger giant has been looking to brand itself as a beverage leader. It's no secret why -- drinks are high-margin products, providing the biggest bang for a restaurant's buck. And with the non-alcoholic beverage business in the U.S worth $153 billion, Mickey D's would be crazy not to try to get a slice of that pie.

Its latest effort: The addition of smoothies and iced frappes to its already impressive suite of McCafe gourmet coffees. Flavors include wild berry, strawberry banana, mango and strawberry flavors at select locations.

Continue reading Smoothies Newest Part of McDonald's Beverage Strategy

BIDU Soars After Split - Will GMCR Follow?

First, let's get one thing straight: A stock split does not change the underlying value of a company. It's simply a repackaging. For instance, instead of selling 10 whole pies for $10 each, you cut each pie into 10 pieces and sell them for $1 each. Either way, you have $100 worth of assets.

So why in the world did Baidu (BIDU) get a hefty boost in share price simply from dividing its $700 shares into 10 smaller, $70 pieces? And more importantly, will Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) perform the same way when it splits 3 for 1 next week?

Continue reading BIDU Soars After Split - Will GMCR Follow?

Starbucks Hopes Summer Menu Heats Up Sales

starbucks frappucinoSeattle coffee icon Starbucks (SBUX) has been on the resurgence in 2010 after consumers fled during the Great Recession. In order to keep the profits percolating, SBUX is looking to roll out a fresh new menu of Frappucinos and iced coffee for the hot summer months.

Growth is crucial for SBUX stock now after it has weathered the worst of the economic downturn. Notable achievements over the past few months include:

  • The announcement of the first-ever cash dividend to SBUX stock owners.
  • Gains of about 220% in Starbucks shares since the 2009 lows, from $8.24 on March 9, 2009, to the mid-$26 range today.
  • Four straight earnings reports topping Wall Street forecasts, with an average earnings surprise of almost 20%.
But despite these strides, SBUX stock is still down about 33% from its 2006 peak at about $40 a share. And the coffee marketplace has become increasingly crowded in the intervening years, so returning to its lofty perch as the coffee queen is no easy task.

Continue reading Starbucks Hopes Summer Menu Heats Up Sales

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DJIA-89.2312,801.23
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Last updated: February 11, 2012: 02:20 AM

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