Continue reading AIG Derivative Exit Costs $2 Billion

AIG Derivative Exit Costs $2 Billion originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 12 Apr 2010 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

What a way to go into the holiday weekend, eh? On Thursday, seven banks were shut down by authorities, which pushed the total of failed banks for 2009 to 52 -- which more than doubles the number of bank failures in 2008. Six of the seven banks seized were located in Illinois and the other was in Texas, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

According to the federal group, the Illinois failures are interlinked, as all six banks were controlled by one family and used a similar business model. The FDIC noted that this model "created concentrated exposure in each institution." This model left the banks heavily exposed to collateralized debt obligations and other loan losses. The six banks brings the total of failed banks in Illinois to 12.

As for the Texas bank failure, it was the first in the state this year.

Continue reading Seven banks go up in smoke ahead of the holiday weekend

Seven banks go up in smoke ahead of the holiday weekend originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 03 Jul 2009 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It looks like America has shut down until 2009. And that's probably a good idea because there were so many bad ones in 2008. Bad ideas are like vampires. They charm their way into the good graces of a host society and then they suck the blood right out of them.

Although they all didn't just pop into our lives in 2008, these eight ideas reached a peak of awfulness in 2008:

• Deregulation is good. The wave of deregulation that started in the early 1980s has created enormous problems for society. Sure there were some bad regulations on the books, but just one deregulated industry -- the $62 trillion credit default swaps (CDS) market -- has cost taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars in the bailout of American International Group (NYSE: AIG).
• If you can lend against it, securitize it. Securitization -- the practice of buying, credit-rating, and bundling loans backed by assets like mortgages, credit card receivables, and leveraged buyout loans -- created the illusion that you could mix risky loans in with safer ones and you could earn above-average returns with no risk. Bad call -- securitization has spread toxic waste around the world from Iceland to Whitefish Bay, Wis.
• Home-ownership is good for everyone. The hungry maw of securitization created enormous demand for new mortgages. And that led mortgage originators to lend to people who couldn't afford to pay back the loans. The $1.3 trillion subprime mortgage market was born and it grew so big that its collapse refused to remain contained. In 2004 Bush bragged about home ownership reaching 69.2% -- three million foreclosures later it seems we should be careful what we wish for.
• Leverage up your balance sheet 30:1 or more. In 2004, the SEC gave financial institutions (FIs) discretion to borrow more money than they had ever borrowed before. Most banks and hedge funds borrowed as much as $35 for every $1 of equity. If they had used their $340 billion in equity to buy the $13 trillion worth of mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), a 3% decline in the MBSs and CDOs value would have wiped out the FI's capital.

Continue reading 2008's eight worst ideas

2008's eight worst ideas originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 27 Dec 2008 16:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It seems that there is a problem with our financial system. That could be why Bear Stearns collapsed, the government took over Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) and American International Group (NYSE: AIG). This problem could also explain why Merrill Lynch sold out to Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), why Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, and why JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) bought Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM). Problems with our financial system could also explain why the Commercial Paper market is freezing up -- making it harder for companies to come up with the short-term cash to pay employees and buy inventory.

But how did our system get to this point? There are five key principles of our current financial architecture that brought us here:

• Securitization. Up until about 30 years ago, people took out mortgages from an S&L and paid their loan officer every month until they owned their house. In the 1980s, Wall Street invented securitization -- the process of buying up, say, 1,000 mortgages from mortgage companies, creating a security based on those mortgages, paying for a AAA rating, and selling the securities to investors worldwide. Securitization is a problem for reasons I'll describe below.
• Too much borrowing. Over the last several years, Financial Institutions (FI) have made some $2 trillion in fees from securitization, according to DealBreaker. One reason for this is that they have been able to buy these securities -- of which there are $13 trillion on the market between Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBSs) and Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) -- with a sliver of capital, roughly $340 billion. The typical FI had a ratio of assets to capital of 30:1. This meant that a mere 3% decline in the value of these securities would wipe out all the capital.

Continue reading 100 Year Crash: How did our system get to this point?

100 Year Crash: How did our system get to this point? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 27 Sep 2008 22:16:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Picture an industry where you raise capital then assertively invest that capital to the tenth degree, highly leveraged.

What's more, you take large risks, investing in one speculative project after another, sometimes in regions of the country that are showing signs of a loss of economic momentum.

And all the while, you collect a handsome fee for each investment project.

Even better, if the investments work out, you're enormously profitable, and a large bonus heads your way by the end of the year.

And if the investments turn out to be foolish and don't work out? Noooo problem. Noooo problem at all: the U.S. government will step in and take over your business, make peace with your business's creditors and share holders, while you're free to take on an executive post in another corporation.

Does the above remind you or any business/sector you know. Yes, that's right: it's the U.S. banking sector as currently configured.

Continue reading Is it time for 'two-tier' banking?

Is it time for 'two-tier' banking? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 20 Sep 2008 17:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Bloomberg News reports that the price tag for the bailout being discussed this weekend in Washington just went up another $200 billion. That's if you believed the initial $500 billion estimate bandied about yesterday. According to Bloomberg, the plan will be broken into "$50 billion tranches which would last for at least two years" and would "accept mortgage-backed securities [MBS] and collateralized debt obligations [CDOs]." Since there are $13 trillion such securities out there -- I am not sure whether $700 billion will be enough to buy them all up -- unless this agency buys them at a steep discount.

That $700 billion price tag will increase the national debt ceiling to $11.3 trillion, that's more than double where it was in 2000 and it represents 80% of U.S. GDP. Why is that important? Because in international banking circles any country whose debt exceeds 60% of GDP is considered at risk of not being able to pay back its debt. So the U.S. is surely turning itself into one of the riskiest borrowers in the world. Thus it's too bad that the rest of the world seems to be entirely dependent on what happens here for the global economy work.

And it wouldn't shock me to wake up Monday morning that that $700 billion having hit $1 trillion or more. As the saying goes, when you owe a bank $100,000 and can't pay it back, that's your problem. But when you owe that bank $5 billion and can't repay, it's the bank's problem. That's the way the rest of the world must feel as the U.S. goes out to the beg the world to buy another trillion dollars worth of our national debt.

Continue reading New bailout price tag: $700 billion

New bailout price tag: $700 billion originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 20 Sep 2008 10:33:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Dodd says Fed has the authority to establish new 'debt fund'

Dodd says Fed has the authority to establish new 'debt fund' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 18 Sep 2008 11:11:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Barron's (subscription required) reports that the news this week about Auction Rate Securities (ARS) leaves $220 billion worth of the $330 billion market still frozen. Those among the two-thirds of ARS holders who have not gotten any good news must have mixed feelings -- happy that some of their colleagues have the potential for relief, but wondering when they will get their money back.

The ARS market is complicated because the securities were issued in many different forms. Barron's reports that these issuers include "municipalities, closed-end funds, student-loan trusts and collateralized debt obligations [CDOs]." Many of these issuers have announced little, if any relief for those frozen in ARS hell. For example:

• Municipal ARS market has fallen 40% from $175 billion to $105 billion since the beginning of 2008 and only "5% to 8% of muni auctions are proceeding -- at interest rates of 8% to 15%."
• Closed-end funds have reduced the amount of ARS outstanding by 37% from $64 billion to $40 billion. For example, Nuveen's closed-end funds sold $500 million of variable-rate demand-preferred shares (VRDPs) last week to replace the same amount of ARS. (VRDPs' interest rates reset in auctions but have a put option that allows an investor to sell the VRDP to the bank running the auction if it fails). Barron's thinks that if the VRDP market functions, "more than 50% of closed-end-fund ARS could be redeemed" by the end of 2008.

Continue reading Barron's: Miles to go before Auction Rate Securities holders can sleep

Barron's: Miles to go before Auction Rate Securities holders can sleep originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 09 Aug 2008 08:47:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Barclays to get $927 million infusion from Japan's Mitsui Financial

Barclays to get $927 million infusion from Japan's Mitsui Financial originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 20 Jun 2008 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Like water-torture, the drip, drip, drip of bad news out of Wall Street keeps coming. According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) will report mortgage securities write-offs of another $6 billion to $8 billion, raising the question whether the firm will have to bring in more money by selling shares..

The newspaper reports that "The latest would bring its total since October to more than $30 billion and mean that Merrill reports a third straight quarterly net loss." Merrill compounded its problems by getting further into the CDO markets as 2007 went on.

While some experts believe that the worst is behind big banks and brokerages, that may not be true. The paper based on mortgages still carries risk as the housing market continues to fall.

Statements from Wall Street firms about a near-term recovery is a victory of hope over reason. The truth of the matter is that they have no idea how much more the economy will slide. That raises the question of whether home equity loans, credit card debt, and auto loans will begin to fail at a faster rate. There are securities held by banks based on pools of all of this debt. The value of LBO debt could also continue to drop as business profits are squeezed by a poor economy.

The Merrill write-down is a sign of one thing and one thing only. Wall Street's numbers could get much worse and there is little reason that the economy will help them get better.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Merrill Lynch (MER) plans $6 billion to $8 billion in write-offs originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 16 Apr 2008 08:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

With the Fed rumored to be contemplating a rare 100 basis point rate cut, it's worth considering whether this policy is doing any good. I'd say those rapid rate reductions are doing more harm. Here's why: non-stop interest rate cuts make business lose confidence in the Fed - since those cuts are ineffective - while signaling that economic conditions are desperately bad or that the Fed is panicking and unable to fix the problem.

I think the problem is that banks and other owners of Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) and other asset backed securities have not accounted yet for the true loss in value of these securities. Therefore corporations and others that deal with the banks don't know whether those institutions are solvent. The solution would be to write down the value of those assets and then recapitalize the banks to the extent of the write downs.

While the non-stop interest rate cuts do not solve what's ailing the credit markets, they also accelerate inflation. This causes businesses to hoard their money because they expect that it will be worth less in the future. In effect, the Fed is creating very high inflationary expectations which creates a very high hurdle rate for investments - and in a slowing economic climate, there are not many investments that can earn a high enough return to get green-lighted.

Continue reading How the Fed's rate cuts stifle capital investment

How the Fed's rate cuts stifle capital investment originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 18 Mar 2008 12:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Nobody knows why the market rose 416 points yesterday. But The New York Times reports that the Fed made an extraordinary move yesterday -- it offered banks $200 billion for a month -- letting them use Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) as collateral for the loan. This inflationary move helped drive oil to $109.72, up 357% since 1/19/01 and cut the dollar declined to one Euro to $1.5469, down 68% since 1/19/01.

But beyond the inflationary impact of the move, there's less here than meets the eye. Certainly, the surprise effect might have forced investors who had a short position to cover by buying back shares. That short-covering may have had a snowball effect. But there's also this -- if banks take those $200 billion off their books, there's still $6.1 trillion worth of CDOs on the market. And what will happen to those $200 billion worth of CDOs at the end of the month?

But there is an interesting twist -- the Fed claimed in a conference call with reporters that it was minimizing risk by accepting only securities that still had the highest triple-A ratings and that they would impose a discount, on mortgage bonds that appear to carry additional risk. If there is any meaning in those AAA ratings then the banks will end up pledging their highest quality securities as collateral and retaining more of the dodgy ones.

Continue reading Why the market rose 416 points

Why the market rose 416 points originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 12 Mar 2008 09:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It seems as though every week, the public is forced to learn another one of Wall Street's strange names for a surefire deal that couldn't miss. But the reason we're learning about those strange names is because -- contrary to promises -- the can't miss deals are shutting down -- taking Wall Street's credibility down along with them.

The latest of these is auction rate securities (ARSs) -- a $330 billion market for long-term bonds that are supposed to pay lower rates because their interest rates are set through auctions. The New York Times reports that municipalities who issued ARSs are suffering because 1,000 of these auctions failed and instead of paying 3% interest rates, they have to pay 20%. And if that wasn't bad enough, the investment banks that oversee these auctions are refusing to let investors withdraw their money.

Which investment banks are imposing this pain? Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS), Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER), and Lehman Brothers Holdings (NYSE: LEH) and the problem with ARSs is not limited to municipalities entities such as the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. Closed-end mutual funds, student loan companies and corporations also issue them.

Continue reading Auction Rate Securities: The latest $330 billion catastrophe

Auction Rate Securities: The latest $330 billion catastrophe originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 15 Feb 2008 09:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Reuters reports that this morning's futures markets point to a 251 point drop in the Dow. Unfortunately, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's rate cuts over the last several months have had the perverse effect of making the market fall. Unlike Alan Greenspan, whose moves put a floor under the market -- the Greenspan Put -- as I posted earlier in the month, Bernanke's moves put a ceiling on the market below which it keeps falling -- the Bernanke Call.

The basic idea here is that Bernanke cuts rates in response to a crashing stock market. And while it generally recovers in response to that cut, that response is temporary and the market continues marching down. Here's a brief summary:

• September 50 basis point cut. After the Dow plummets 244 points last August, Fed cuts 50 basis points in September to 4.75%. Market rallies 979 to its October 12 high 14,093.
• October 25 basis point cut. Between October 12 and October 19, 2007, the Dow drops 571 points so Fed cuts rates 25 basis points on the 31st and the Dow falls an additional 541 points by November 23rd due to disappointment with the lower than hoped for cut.
• December 25 basis point cut. Between November 23 and December 7, 2007, the Dow rises 645 points to 13,625 -- I have no idea why, but on December 12, the Fed cuts another 25 basis points to 4.25% and the market is again disappointed -- the Dow falls 1,526 points to 12,099 by January 18, 2008.

Continue reading With Dow futures lower, the Bernanke Call lives on

With Dow futures lower, the Bernanke Call lives on originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 23 Jan 2008 09:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Although short selling -- the practice of selling borrowed shares with the hope of repaying the loan by buying back the shares at a lower price -- goes against the American belief that stocks always go up, I have long been fascinated with it. Short Stories discusses what works, what doesn't, and what some of the leading lights in shorting stocks think about its opportunities and threats. I describe possible short trades and seek your comments and questions for story ideas. I don't offer any investment advice and I don't trade on any of the posts I write.

Alesco Financial (NYSE: AFN) looks like it will have trouble coming up with the money to repay its debts. This Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) uses borrowed money to buy into the alphabet soup of securities -- such as Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) and Mortgage Backed Securities (MBSs) -- that could cost Wall Street up to $400 billion in write-downs. With 22% of its float sold short, many investors have already figured out that Alesco, at $3.28, is on life support. But it pays a 31 cent a share dividend, for a 9% dividend yield -- 36% if it was annualized (but I doubt Alesco will be able to continue to pay it) -- which those short sellers are willing to pay because they think the stock has further to decline.

The question about whether to sell short this stock revolves around whether Alesco can pay off its $11.2 billion in debt. Here are some factors to consider:

• Debt repayment. In its most recent annual report of March 2007, Alesco said it was on the hook to repay $3.6 billion It owed in less than a year and then nothing in the intervening years and in more than five years it would owe $6.8 billion. If it has already paid off the $3.6 billion it could be OK. But its most recent quarterly report said it had $91 million in cash so if it owes more than $91 million in the next few months, it could be in trouble. And it's already dedicated $19 million of that cash to dividends.

Continue reading Short Stories: Is Alesco Financial headed for the dumpster?

Short Stories: Is Alesco Financial headed for the dumpster? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 30 Dec 2007 10:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The research arm of Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) is predicting that Citigroup (NYSE: C) will have to cut its dividend by 40% due to CDO write-offs of $18.7 billion. Goldman believes that Citi will need the cut to raise $6.2 billion in additional capital.

According to Bloomberg, the Goldman report said "It will be a couple of quarters before the current credit crisis is fully digested by the markets."

Keeping the dividend high makes little sense. The yield on Citi's stock is now over 7%. But, very few investors would put money into such risky shares to get a long-term high yield. An announcement of more significant trouble at the big bank could certainly drop the shares another 10% or 20%, making gains from the dividend appear modest.

Citi is no longer a stock that investors look to for a pay-out. It is a volatile investment which could gain a stockholder 30% over a quarter if the company sold a large division or had better-than-expected earnings.

Cut the dividend to get some dry powder.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

How deeply will Citigroup cut its dividend? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 27 Dec 2007 08:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Last week, Citadel Investment Group, a Chicago hedge fund, bought E*Trade Financial (NASDAQ: ETFC)'s collateralized debt obligation (CDO) portfolio for 27 cents on the dollar according to The Wall Street Journal [subscription required]. If this price was applied to the Level 3 assets of nine of the largest banks, it would wipe out the capital of three of them.

It's important to point out, before presenting this analysis, that the 27 cents on the dollar price that Citadel paid applied only to E-Trade's CDOs. It may represent a worst case scenario price for these banks. Furthermore, the Level 3 assets of these nine banks include other illiquid securities besides their CDOs. Finally, the calculations I'll show are based on the most recent Level 3 assets and equity of these banks as of last month.

Having said that, here are the three banks whose capital would be wiped out if that 27 cents on the dollar valuation was applied to their Level 3 assets and written off from their most recent capital levels:

Continue reading Could Citadel's valuation of E*Trade's CDOs wipe out capital at three big banks?

Could Citadel's valuation of E*Trade's CDOs wipe out capital at three big banks? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 04 Dec 2007 10:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Dow lost 237 points today according to The Associated Press. The stated causes?

• The HSBC bailout of $45 billion worth of SIVs
• Citigroup Inc.'s (NYSE: C) announcement that it would fire as many as 45,000 people
• The Fed's announcement that it would inject $8 billion worth of liquidity -- in the form of short-term loans -- into the financial system

The daily explanations of market movements are not really that meaningful. But I am inferring three very disturbing messages from these market moves:

• There are serious unrealized losses in the banking system as a result of their holdings of Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) and Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBSs) that nobody wants to buy.
• The banks may not have enough capital on their books to take the big bath write downs needed to account accurately for these bad assets.
• The banks and the government are hoping that if they can stall for time long enough, the problem will take care of itself.

The market will keep dropping until these messages are no longer true. This could take years to clear up.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns Citigroup shares.

Dow's 237 point tumble -- when will it end? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 26 Nov 2007 17:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Super-size questions remain for Super SIV

Super-size questions remain for Super SIV originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 26 Nov 2007 16:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Persian Gulf oil wealth: $44 trillion, and rising

Persian Gulf oil wealth: $44 trillion, and rising originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 20 Nov 2007 17:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.