Word that Boeing's next-generation plane, the 787 Dreamliner, may not fly until 2010, according to The Seattle Times, is bad news not just for the company, it's a negative data point for the U.S. economy.

The 787's engineers must correct a wing flaw that extends to inside the plane: 17 long stiffening rods, called "stringers," on each wing's upper skin, sustained damage that occurred just beyond the aircraft's "limit load," which is the maximum load the wing is expected to bear in service, The Times said. In other words, the wing damage occurred when the wing was well below the load the wings must bear to be federally certified to carry passengers.

In this market, where a sneeze by a hedge fund manager can cause the Dow to fall 200 points, or so it seems, you take the positive data points where you can get them.

Boeing supplied one on Tuesday, reaffirming that its next-generation 787 Dreamliner remains on schedule for its earlier-stated Q1 2010 delivery and Q2 2009 first test flight, the company announced during a presentation at the J.P. Morgan Aviation and Transportation conference.

The traditional response -- and defense -- for a late delivery is 'Better late than never." Regarding The Boeing Company's (NYSE: BA) delayed 787 Dreamliner, the stance is, 'Better be great, or never.' The Dreamliner, Boeing's next-generation wide-body, has been dubbed the '7-Late-7,' due to the company's four delivery delays that have pushed back its first delivery to Q1 2010.

From a commercial aviation standpoint, delaying a delivering is like showing up late for the first semester of classes at college. In the 787's case, Boeing looks like it will arrive on campus about four weeks into the semester, so says stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer.

With the company having reached a tentative, new, 4-year contract agreement with its engineers, it appears Boeing will avoid a second, internecine work stoppage.

What Boeing will not be able to do, however, is avoid a decidedly downward revision in company and stock performance expectations, so says Stock Analyst C. Leonard Bauer.

U.S. business: A difficult decade

Bauer, not one to wax philosophic, nevertheless takes a historian's-like view of Boeing's actions -- and the actions of numerous other companies -- in recent years.

"It's as if we decided as a nation to place all of the most idiotic, self-defeating, and economically-damaging business decisions in one decade," Bauer said. "It's as if the whole business community attended the wrong business school." The Boeing Company's (NYSE: BA) shares rose 45 cents to $42.51 in Monday afternoon trading.

In the quarters ahead, new autos may not be the only inventory item piling up.

A 'really big ticket item' -- new commercial airplanes -- may start piling up, as well. Boeing and Airbus may end up with as many as 200 new planes without buyers in 2009 because airlines are unable to obtain funds to pay for them, due to the credit crunch.

In the second half of 2008, banks and other sources of capital decreased lending to airlines -- and to just about everyone else, it seems -- on concerns the loans won't be paid back. Other banks are decreasing lending primarily as a means of rebuilding damaged balance sheets.

The lending cutback may create a funding gap of about $65 billion at Boeing next year, and a $20 billion gap at Airbus. Boeing Capital Corp., the airplane manufacturing giant's financing unit, is expected to make $1 billion in loans to customers in 2009.

The global aircraft business sure is complex. Big companies are both suppliers and customers of each other. There are only two major competitors -- but one new one, backed by the Chinese government -- threatens to alter the structure of the industry. And aircraft are so expensive that financing is the critical fuel that keeps the industry going. Meanwhile, the global economic slowdown threatens to cut demand for air travel and slice that capital flow.

This complexity comes to mind in analyzing a General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) threat to Boeing (NYSE: BA) -- which it leveled by placing a $750 million order for five aircraft -- with an option to buy 20 more -- with China's Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (CACC). CACC was formed earlier this year through the merger of China's two state aircraft makers, AVIC I and AVIC. And the expansion does not stop there -- today China announced plans to acquire a foreign general aviation aircraft maker to "shore up its technology capabilities."

GE's CACC buy is hurting one of GE's biggest customers -- that's because GE Aviation sells billions worth of engines to Boeing. And GE's aircraft financing unit -- GE Capital Aviation Services -- is in competition with American International Group's (NYSE: AIG) aircraft financing unit, International Lease Finance Corp. -- which is one of Boeing's biggest customers.

Just call it a quarter of modest progress for AMR, despite the earnings per share loss.

AMR Corp., parent of American Airlines, posted a third quarter loss, excluding items, but also said it will order 42 next-generation planes from Boeing -- signaling that cost-cuts and increased efficiency may very well position the carrier for better quarters ahead.

AMR Corp (NYSE: AMR) reported a Q3 earnings per share of a loss of $1.39, excluding one-time items.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected AMR to report a Q3 earnings per share loss of $1.36. AMR posted Q3 revenue of $6.4 billion. AMR's shares rose 60 cents to $9.38 in Thursday morning trading.

In the space of a short month, the financial universe has been reordered.

Europe and the United States have launched major interventions plans to stabilize the global financial system. China has cut interest rates and pledged to help further to normalize financial flows. The Treasury Secretary of Russia and the U.S. Treasury Secretary are negotiating with the same goal in mind.

There's even been progress on New York's Second Avenue Subway Line, second only to, perhaps, the Burma Road in the length of time needed to complete a public works project.

Meanwhile, in Seattle . . . Boeing and the union representing machinists remain at loggerheads over a new contract, with work idled since September 6.

The work stoppage is costing Boeing (NYSE: BA) about $100 million per day, Bloomberg News reported. Even worse, lack of progress toward a new contract with the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers could ultimately cost both sides much more, says stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer.

"If the strike is not settled in a week it invariably will force another roll-out delay in the first 787 Dreamliners, and in other airplanes, which would be major operational setbacks for Boeing and the machinists," Bauer said. "We're talking purchase delays and order cancellations by airlines. That will both lower projected revenue and result in lost jobs." Bauer added that he does not have a rating on nor own shares in Boeing or any airplane manufacturer.

What a September.

The Yankees fade during the stretch and don't make the play-offs. And Yankee Stadium, The House That Ruth Built, has closed, forever. Meanwhile, the stock market frequently looks like it wants to close.

Well, at least Boeing (NYSE: BA) is doing well. No, wait, Boeing too is closed, temporarily, due to a strike.

And now there's word that Boeing will reassess its 787 Dreamliner delivery schedule for the Japanese market once the ongoing strike ends, Reuters reported Tuesday.

Analysts fear that a failure of Boeing and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers to reach an agreement that has idled 27,000 machines could further push-back the 787's delivery timetable. The IAM strike began September 6. Boeing has already delayed delivery of its next-generation 787 airplane by 18 months. Boeing's shares rose $1.52 to $56.99 Tuesday afternoon amid a broader market rally.

Not a September Sinatra would sing about

"I guess this September was meant to be a month with all bad news, because it certainly seems that way," Stock Analyst C. Leonard Bauer said. "Boeing was one of the few bright spots on a pretty dismal domestic economic landscape. Great new products, solid orders, a good future for the company and the stock. But then management and the union can't agree on compensation. Pretty sad."

Boeing's (NYSE: BA) largest union, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, is in its third day of a strike that's idled 27,000 workers. An aviation consultant argued that the strike could last more than a month, if history is any guide, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.

However, Stock Analyst C. Leonard Bauer said what counts in work stoppages is not so much company/sector precedent, but "the reality of the facts on the ground ... the nature of the issues involved." Bauer added that he does not have a rating on nor own shares in Boeing.

"The two sides are reasonably close on the standard pay increase, it's pension payment increases and the use of outside contractor for work that the two sides are far from agreement on," Bauer said. "Boeing is booming now and the IAM wants some assurance that their retirees' pension will not go the way of other corporate pension plans, which were revised lower as corporations faced tougher times. The two sides are still pretty far apart on that issue, as well as on the use of outside contractors." Boeing's shares rose 80 cents to $64.71 in Tuesday morning trading.

Given the above, a strike of less than a month "would be a moral victory," Bauer said.

For Boeing (NYSE: BA), there's more hinging on today's machinists' contract vote than the company's primary labor costs over the next three years.

"The fate of future orders for the 787 Dreamliner could weigh in the balance," stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Wednesday.

About 27,000 members in the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers union in Washington State, Oregon and Kansas will vote today concerning whether to accept a three-year contract, The Associated Press reported Wednesday. Contact vote results are expected Wednesday night.

Shares of Boeing (NYSE: BA) rose 90 cents to $66.79 in Wednesday morning trading.

Despite Boeing's offer of a $5,000 signing bonus and a pay increase totaling 11% over the 3-year contract, its passage is hardly a slam dunk, Bauer said. "I know the media likes to portray every major union contract as a big deal, but this one really is a big issue. There are a lot of nervous parties watching this vote, parts suppliers to Boeing, businesses in the affected regions, and of course, almost every major airline around the world," Bauer said. "A protracted strike at Boeing would jeopardize several commercial airplane delivery timetables."

Work stoppage could hurt 787 orders

This is not the way to kick off the fall production season, typically a time when companies introduce new products and plans. Boeing (NYSE: BA) could lose up to $3.5 billion per month in revenue if a threatened strike by a machinist union occurs next week, USAToday reported Friday.

The potential action by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers could also delay the 787 Dreamliner program and other aircraft programs. About 27,000 machinists in Washington state, Oregon and Kansas would be affected.

Boeing's latest contract offer calls for an 11% pay increase in annual increments of 5%, 3%, and 3%, Bloomberg News reported Friday. Machinists would also get a $2,500 payment if they approve the new contract by September 3.

Stock Analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Friday Boeing "will probably have to increase its offer to the IAM, given what's at stake for Boeing."

"Boeing is in a position where it can increase its labor cost base. Revenue remains strong, with large backorders," Bauer said. "Those facts, plus the fact that Boeing can not afford any more delays in the 787 program, means the IAM has the upper hand in these contract negotiations. I'm sure the machinists don't want a strike, either, so my call would be for Boeing to up its pay raise offer to 6%, 5%, and 5% for a 16% pay increase." Bauer added that he does not have a rating on nor own shares in Boeing.

There's a downside and an upside to the new air travel reality in the United States.

The downside: look for more, packed flights as airlines reduce fleets to cut costs by eliminating unprofitable flights, and with it the (remaining) empty seats on planes, The New York Times reported.

The upside: airlines are required to offer a greater payout, if you're bumped from a flight.

Airlines' load factor seen increasing

Stock analyst and frequent flier C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks U.S. airlines' load factor - - the percent of seats sold per flight - - is likely to increase from its current 79% sector average. "Basic math. Considerably fewer planes and roughly the same amount of travelers means more flights close to capacity."

And overcapacity. Bauer said he expects bumps - - people with a boarding pass who can't fly because the airline overbooked the plane - - to increase during the next six months. However, bumps may trend lower in 2H 2009, if passenger traffic slows on the heels of the U.S. economic slowdown, he said.

In any event, if you're bumped, your air travel-denominated compensation will be better than it was three years ago, Bauer said, due to federally-required higher payouts. [Bauer added that he does not own shares in or have a rating on any airline or airplane manufacturer. However, Bauer does have frequent flier miles/points in American Airlines (NYSE: AMR).]

Airlines globally could lose $6.1 billion in 2008, on soaring oil prices and financial market dislocation, the head of the International Air Transport Association said, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday (subscription required).

Giovanni Bisignani, managing director of the IATA, which represents 230 airlines, called the sector "a fragile industry in a crisis" and that it's "bracing for more situations of airlines collapsing," due to high fuel prices and lower revenue, The Journal reported. Further, the air travel slowdown, once thought to be contained to developed nations, has spread to global air travel's plum: Asia, he added.

Airline slowdown could hurt Boeing, Airbus

Stock analyst and frequent flier C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Thursday if the Asian hemisphere is slowing, to go along with sluggish revenue statistics in Europe and the United States, the slowdown "would have wide implications, not just for airlines, but for airplane manufacturers Boeing and Airbus."

"Further consolidation globally, was a given, particularly in nations like India, which had too many airlines even before the global economy slowed, but the concern now is that national carriers will postpone or cancel plane orders," Bauer said. "From a U.S. perspective, that could mean bad news for Boeing. And what's bad news for Boeing is bad news for the U.S economy. Airplane sales have been one of the U.S. economy's few bright spots." [Bauer added that he does not own shares in or have a rating on any airline or airplane manufacturer. However, Bauer does have frequent flier miles/points in American Airlines (NYSE: AMR).]

American Airlines, British Air and Spain's Iberia have signed a joint business agreement on flights between North America and Europe, American Airlines announced Thursday.

American (NYSE: AMR) added that the three airlines plan to file for global antitrust immunity from U.S. officials and will also apply from the same in Europe.

Under the deal announced Thursday, the three airlines will cooperate commercially on flights between the United States zone (encompassing Canada and Mexico) and the European Union (including Switzerland and Norway), while continuing to operate as separate, legal companies.

Analyst: 'an absolute, positive, must deal'

Stock Analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Thursday rival competitors may argue that the deal will reduce competition internationally, but in Bauer's interpretation the agreement is "an absolute, positive, must deal," due to the changing nature of flight and air travel.

"The reality is, we're becoming a global travel marketplace, not just a national one, one that will eventually be accessible to everyone, and in this decade the key players will compete on transcontinental and global routes," Bauer said. "That means the carriers need global scale and the American-British Air-Iberia deal accomplishes that. It is an absolute, positive, must deal." (Bauer added that he does not have a rating on nor own shares in any airline. However, Bauer does have frequent flier miles/points in American Airlines.)