Boeing said Thursday its Q2 results will contain a charge "of approximately 22 cents per share on previously acknowledged delays on its airborne early warning & control program."
Boeing (NYSE: BA) added that it continues to expect F2008 and F2009 earnings per share of $5.70-$5.85 and $6.80-$7.00, respectively.
Boeing's shares fell 30 cents to $65.29 in pre-market trading on the news
Stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer said Boeing's 22-cent "is unfortunate," but not something that changes Boeing's solid, strong commercial aerospace story, as a value proposition. "Boeing is still on-track to deliver earning growth in 2008 and 2009, which is no small achievement given current U.s. economic conditions," Bauer said. Bauer added that he does not have a rating on nor own shares in Boeing.
Boeing (NYSE: BA) Wednesday increased its 20-year forecast for global commercial jetliner deliveries for the sector by 2.8%, forecasting that demand for fuel-efficient replacement aircraft will outweigh capacity reductions by U.S. carriers.
Encompassing all airline manufacturers in the sector, Boeing now expects a market for 29,400 new commercial airplanes (passenger and freighter) by 2027, up 2.8% from its previous estimate of 28,600. Boeing added that the forecast factors-in the sector's near-term challenges, including a slowing global economy, surging fuel prices, slowing traffic growth in some markets, and a concerted action by airlines to lower costs.
Shares of Boeing (NYSE: BA) gained 25 cents to $66.18 on the news in Wednesday afternoon trading, despite a 131-point market sell-off in the DJIA.
Boeing added that single-aisle airplanes will make up the bulk of the sector's deliveries during the next 20 years. Strong domestic and intra-regional air travel growth in emerging Asia-Pacific markets, along with continued growth of low-cost carriers worldwide, is driving demand in this segment, the company said. Orders from Asia will comprise 31% of the deliveries; North America, 29%; and Europe/Asia, 27%.
Boeing, which already has delayed its new 787 Dreamliner 14 months, announced Tuesday it will know "soon" whether a supplier's damaged part on the fourth of six test planes will affect the program, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.
The mid-body fuselage section built by Global Aeronautica LLC, a venture with Alenia North America, was damaged "by an Alenia employee not following proper work procedures" in Charleston, S.C., Boeing said, Bloomberg News reported. Boeing said it resolved the issue, but it is currently evaluating the error's impact on the plane's timetable.
Boeing's shares (NYSE: BA) fell 52 cents to $65.20 on the news in Tuesday morning trading.
Stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer said he's "not going to think the worst" regarding a possible timetable change, until Boeing knows definitively if it will affect production and roll-out.
It's a macroeconomic headwind that could produce a jetliner order headwind.
International Lease Finance Corp. said it may order 300 jetliners from Boeing and Airbus to meet lease demand from airlines that can no longer afford to buy their own planes, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.
International Lease said it may purchase 150 single-aisle aircraft from each aerospace company. The orders would be worth about $22 billion at current plane prices, exclusive of discounts.
Boeing (NYSE: BA) shares fell $4.83 to $69.99 on the news, while Airbus's parent EADS' shares rose 39 euro cents to €12.95 in afternoon trading in Paris.
High oil prices take a toll
Stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Wednesday the era's record-high jet fuel prices are beginning to take a toll on airline business models. "If high prices, basically oil above $120 a barrel, persist, you will see order cancellations, and more postponements, in the U.S. and abroad," Bauer said. "Some airline business models just won't work with oil at $120-$125 or higher, so you will begin to see order delays and cancellations." Bauer added that he does not have ratings on, nor own shares in any airline or airline manufacturer.
No, the airlines haven't started charging by the pound. At least not yet...
Jokes aside, nobody told the airlines there'd be days like these, to paraphrase John Lennon.
Jet fuel costs -- up 84% in the past year alone -- have skyrocketed, along with the cost of just about every other product derived from the world's most vital commodity, and the airlines are looking for every conceivable way to reduce weight, reduce wind/resistance drag, and increase operational efficiency, The New York Times reported Wednesday.
The major carriers are replacing heavier seats with lighter ones, cleaning engines and planes more often, reducing the fresh water available on flights, and plugging into electric outlets instead of idling engines at the gate, among other changes, in order to cut fuel consumption.
More air travel changes ahead
Moreover, the changes -- and charges -- have only just begun, so says stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer. "Everyone knows about the added bag charges, a pain in the neck, for sure. But it could get worse," says Bauer, who also flies on a major carrier about 5-7 times per year. "In the winter you could see a per pound baggage charge, or something along those lines. So don't pack that extra winter coat when you fly this December."
Boeing said on Monday its 787 Dreamliner would make its first test flight in Q4 2008, reiterating that it would make its revised test flight date for the next-generation airliner, Reuters reported Tuesday.
First deliveries of the plane were also on schedule for Q3 2009, said Dmitry Krol, Boeing's director of communications in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States, Reuters reported.
Boeing's (NYSE: BA) shares rose 53 cents to $73.69 in Monday afternoon trading.
Independent stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Monday Boeing's reiteration of the company's first-flight time deadline was not gratuitous.
Airbus said 2008 orders for the A380 superjumbo jet may be one-third lower than previously forecast, as higher fuel costs and an economic slowdown moderate travel growth, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.
Airbus said it may receive about 20 orders in 2008 for the 525-seat A380 superjumbo, the world's largest commercial jetliner. Earlier, Airbus had projected up to 30 orders for the A380 in 2008.
Airbus' announcement did not negatively impact the stock, at least not at the outset. Shares of Airbus' parent EADS gained 28 cents to 14.95 euros in Wednesday afternoon trading on the Paris exchange.
The first 'power on' for Boeing's (NYSE: BA) next-generation 787 Dreamliner, now set for June 2008, will be a milestone, but by no means the final hurdle for the new plane, says an analyst.
Boeing said it has overcome 787 parts shortages and that subsequent planes are arriving at the final assembly line in better and better shape, The Associated Press reported Tuesday.
Boeing is the first major aerospace company to use a decentralized manufacturing model for a civilian commercial airplane, and the company has experienced a series of related snags that have delayed the launch of the 787 by about 15 months. Commercial airlines are now expected to take possession of the first 787 planes in Q3 2009.
C. Leonard Bauer, an independent stock analyst, told BloggingStocks Tuesday that any more delays for the 787 roll-out and Boeing "will be the last aerospace company to use a decentralized manufacturing model" for a civilian commercial airplane.
Readers of this space know that selected defense contractors are my preferred plays, growing U.S. economy or not. (But let's hope it's a growing U.S. economy). And the reason for the defense contractor bullishness is obvious enough. The geopolitical climate can change, of course, but it looks like defense, national security and anti-terrorism efforts will remain at the top of the U.S.'s concerns, for the foreseeable future.
Further, when one can combine a defense contractor with an industrial play, including commercial aviation, the potential exists for superior return on equity. And with the above in mind, United Technologies is worth a review.
United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) is one of those handful of stocks in which you can buy 200 shares or 50 shares for your child's college fund, and then look back on it in 10 years and be very glad you did.
Here are some attributes: Leadership position in high-value-add sectors, substantial defense contracts, infrastructure/capital improvement businesses, technological leadership, diversification and operational balance, economies of scale, massive amounts of engineering talent, long history of steady earnings growth and dividend growth. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for UTX are $4.88/$5.45.
Airbus has again delayed delivery of selected A380 superjumbo jets, saying the company's transition to automated production is behind schedule.
Airbus now expects to deliver 12 A380 planes in 2008, down from 13, and 21 planes in 2009, down from 25, the company announced Tuesday.
Promoted as the world's most economical, large aircraft, the A380 is about two years behind schedule. The A380 will seat 525 passengers in a normal configuration, at least 50-120 seats more than its chief competition, Boeing's (NYSE: BA) 747, the wide-body industry standard.
In Europe, shares of Airbus's parent EADS were virtually unchanged on the news, down just 2 euro cents to 12.72 euros in afternoon trading. Boeing's shares gained five cents to $84.87.
Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Boeing is worth an evaluation.
In general, analysts expect 3-5% revenue growth in FY 2008, and 7-10% in FY 2009 as Boeing's increased aircraft production to meet high order backlogs offsets production delays in the 787 Dreamliner.
Moreover, although not to give short-shrift to Boeing's Integrated Defense Systems division, now the world's second-largest military contractor, behind Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), the major driver of BA's future value-added will continue to be its commercial aviation operation, led by the next-generation 787 Dreamliner.
Higher oil prices and the surging aviation fuel costs they imply may reduce the benefits of an airliner merger, such as the potential deal between United Airlines and U.S. Airways, but they don't eliminate a merger's long-term positives, an analyst argued Tuesday.
Further, C. Leonard Bauer, independent stock analyst, told BloggingStocks Tuesday the potential United-US Airways union would benefit the sector in that it would be the second merger this year among major airlines in the United States, also known as the legacy carriers.
Shares of UAL Corp. (NYSE: UAUA), parent of United Airlines, are down 88 cents to $14.10, while US Airways (NYSE: LCC) are down 55 cents to $7.79 in Tuesday trading.
Sector right-sizing
"The deal would take another legacy carrier off the table, after the Delta-Northwest merger, and that can only help the sector from an earnings standpoint," Bauer said. "The United States airline sector leads the league in airline route redundancy and duplicate hubs. This second deal would further tighten the sector."
Readers of this space know that my investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Parker-Hannifin is worth a review.
Parker-Hannifin (NYSE: PH) is one of the world's largest makers of components that control the flow of industrial fluids; control systems for machinery/equipment; motion control products; fluid purification, fluid and fuel control; process instrumentation; air conditioning / refrigeration; electromagnetic shielding; and thermal management products and systems.
In general, analysts expect PH to register 10-14% revenue growth in F2008, on solid growth in industrial and aerospace work, internationally. Moreover, the global aerospace growth cycle is expected to continue through 2008 and into 2009, netting impressive results for PH.
Further, although the majority of PH's revenues is U.S.-based, and those division will not achieve their peak performance due to the barely-growing U.S. economy, Parker's international industrial/business segment is expected to continue to benefit from emerging market / developing economies work.
Profit rose to $1.21 billion, or $1.61 a share, from $873 million, or $1.12, a year earlier, the company said in its earnings release (pdf). Sales gained 4.1% to $16 billion. Analysts had expected earnings of $1.35 on revenue of $16.52 billion, according to Thomson Financial.
"We're off to a good start in what we expect to be another strong year of financial performance for Boeing," said Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Jim McNerney in the release. "We are methodically working through our challenges, including the start-up of the 787, and our people remain focused on satisfying our customers and leveraging growth and productivity into better bottom-line and top-line performance for our company."
Backlog at the quarter was $346 billion, up 32% year-over-year, driven by orders for commercial airplanes at the V-22. Investors responded positively to the news, sending the shares up in premarket trading. The company also reaffirmed its guidance of $5.70 to $5.85 this year and gave guidance of $6.80 to $7 per share for 2009. Analysts expected profit of $5.93 this year and $6.87 for next year.
This goes to show you that yesterday's dogs become today's heroes on Wall Street. Anything remains possible in today's market where conventional wisdom regularly is proven wrong.
Look for the stalled Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) / Northwest Airline (NYSE: NWA) deal talks to regain momentum and the merger to be announced in the week ahead, an analyst confidently told BloggingStocks Thursday.
Independent stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer, formerly of Prudential, said the Delta / Northwest talks may be stalled by the inability of the companies' pilots unions to reach an agreement on seniority lists, but that traditional, formidable hurdle will not stop this deal from coming to fruition due to its "strong marriage fundamentals."
Attractive fundamentals
Bauer said three fundamentals will drive the deal: absence of overlapping city pairs, economies of scale and passenger demand.
"First, there's the overall flight route fit. Delta and Northwest have only 10 or 12 cities pairs that overlap, so from a destination coverage standpoint, the deal is very attractive," Bauer said. "Second, the new company will have massive economies of scale and will be a force in the new global market. This will be a profitable airline."