Have we reached the bottom yet? That's a question that people ask me from time to time. I haven't got an answer yet, but today I have some numbers that may give us an idea. And the preliminary verdict is: No!

Why? Because the commercial banking industry in the U.S. is likely to be bankrupt -- by which I mean its liabilities could exceed its assets -- as we approach the bottom.

Just how bad will it get? It could see 41% of its core capital wiped out by loan losses alone. And when you take into account all the toxic waste and derivatives on the banks' books -- its capital looks mighty thin.

As the saying goes, what if you invited everyone to a party and no one showed up?

That's a little like how the U.S. Federal Reserve feels right now. The Fed has lowered benchmark, short-term interest rates substantially - - including 125 basis points of reduction in January 2008 alone - - but so far, banks, stung by subprime losses, have been reluctant to ramp-up lending, CNBC.com reported Monday.

Patience advised

Still, economist David H. Wang took issue with those arguing that the Fed's rate cuts and ongoing term auction facility that haven't worked or weren't needed.

Concerning rate cuts, Wang told BloggingStocks Monday that the banking sector had to work through "a period of loan fright" - - an irrational fear of risk - - that is, in his view, the additive inverse of "the total neglect of risk" that characterized the earlier housing boom.

"Banks need some time to improve their balance sheets. Some may accomplish this through job cuts and by operational cut-back. Many will accomplish this through curtailed lending and tighter lending standards, at least for a short period of time," Wang said. "But in time, lending to businesses and individuals will resume its normal pace."

'Gradualism' vs. shock therapy

Second, the Fed's term auction facility - - which U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has said will remain in operation "for as long as necessary" - - is working. "The term auction facility is doing exactly what it's supposed to do... it's providing short-term loans to banks who need it, who don't want to borrow from the discount window and who can't get the money from other banks who are afraid to lend," Wang said. "And in the process, bank operations are maintained, even as they slowly and gradually digest subprime defaults and related asset write-offs."

And that last point may be the key to understanding the outlook for a resumption of normal lending conditions, he said. Given the size of likely, problematic subprime loans - - some have put the figure at $500 billion - - and the preference for gradualism, it may be two quarters or more before normal lending conditions resume. Further, the correct place to look for the start of increased lending is not the stock market's level, but commercial activity: orders for new equipment, business expansion plans, and job growth / new hiring announcements.

And while some economists argue that it would be better if the financial services sector wrote-off problem loans quicker - - i.e. 'the sooner the better for economy,' Wang does not agree.

"Shock therapy may have worked in Poland's transition from a communist centrally-planned economy to a free-market economy but we're dealing with a magnitude difference in money here," Wang said with chuckle. "The Fed's goal here is to enable banks to gradually work the bad loans out the system, while maintaining the conditions for sustainable economic growth and not causing runaway inflation. And so far, that strategy is working, in my interpretation."

BusinessWeek reports that former Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) Chair Robert Rubin picked Vikram Pandit because Rubin thought Pandit could "drive the vision, drive the execution." I welcome a comment from anyone who can explain what that means. What comes to my mind is that Pandit is going to drive an execution squad behind him ready to gun down anyone who gets in his way.

I am not thrilled with Pandit's ascension and it looks like he is going to turn one of his weaknesses -- a lack of consumer banking expertise in a bank that gets half its income from that business -- into a strength. How so? Pandit looks poised to sell Citi's credit card business. I guess if Citi dumps all the consumer businesses, then he'll know something about the businesses that remain.

To increase the value of Citi's stock, I'd recommend three steps:

Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) completed its acquisition of the parent of Chicago's LaSalle Bank in the beginning of October, a move that significantly increased Bank of America's presence in Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. LaSalle had 400 banking centers, 17,000 commercial customers, and 1.4 million retail customers.

Now, most of LaSalle Bank's former senior leadership has defected to Chicago-based PrivateBancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: PVTB). Bank of America said that it would defend its customer base from PrivateBancorp or any lender that tries to poach customers from the biggest business lender in Chicago. They plan to start with visits to LaSalle customers: "We will be blanketing the market with calls starting today," said a Bank of America spokesperson.

Experts have drawn distinctions between LaSalle's commercial banking model and Bank of America's retail model. LaSalle allowed front-line lenders to make more credit decisions and handle virtually all of the clients' needs, but Bank of America says that credit decisions in most cases will still be made locally.

Meanwhile, former LaSalle Bank CEO, Larry Richman, will take over as CEO of PrivateBancorp on Monday. "Larry is a proven business and civic leader whose passion for clients and the Chicago area has been demonstrated in his past successes," said Richman's predecessor, PrivateBancorp's cofounder, Ralph Mandell. In turn, Richman said, "There is an extraordinary opportunity for us to build and expand client relationships to become the premier middle market commercial and private bank not only in Chicago, but also in all of the markets we serve."