Continue reading Loopnet fights the commercial real estate depression

Loopnet fights the commercial real estate depression originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 29 Oct 2009 15:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is not an abstraction: buildings large and small are showing gaping vacancies. Storefronts are empty. Entire buildings sit waiting to be occupied. In Manhattan, retail vacancies have reached their highest rates since 2001. For the second quarter of this year, vacancies hit the absurd height of 12.4%, thanks to unemployment trends that won't quit and consumers reluctant to pry open their wallets.

Retailers are being hit just like the residential market.

Continue reading Commercial real estate vacancies surge above 12% in Manhattan

Commercial real estate vacancies surge above 12% in Manhattan originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 17 Jul 2009 13:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Developers Diversified (DDR) deal signals pain level for undercapitalized REITs

Developers Diversified (DDR) deal signals pain level for undercapitalized REITs originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 09 Jun 2009 13:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

George Soros is one of the truly legendary figures in world finance. He doesn't use fancy mathematics and he doesn't follow the crowd. In 2007 he predicted the coming collapse of the world financial system. Unlike other pundits, Soros has the courage to make huge bets, often using his "feelings" about what he sees is happening.

Continue reading George Soros says commercial property values to decline 30%

George Soros says commercial property values to decline 30% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 31 Mar 2009 10:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Circuit City Elementary School?

Circuit City Elementary School? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 05 Feb 2009 15:18:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Trade groups representing developers and commercial lenders are lobbying Congress for a bailout. They are saying that $530 billion dollars of CMS's (commercial mortgage backed securities) are coming due in three years and $160 billion dollars are coming due next year.

The kinds of buildings involved include office complexes, hotels, shopping centers and other commercial buildings. Much like home mortgages, these CMS's were bundled together and sold to third parties and just as the market for home mortgages collapsed, so too this market's refinancing has all but come to a standstill.

Delinquency rates, though quite low, have been rising up to .96% in November from .62% in September. Some analysts predict this will rise to 2% by the end of 2009.

We now have a new financial dilemma. Congress and the Administration were reluctant to bail out the auto industry. The question again is: should we do this for commercial lenders as well?

Commercial developers and lenders are standing in line for a bailout originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 25 Dec 2008 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Washington Post reports that the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is getting what it feels is a raw deal on a mortgage for its Washington headquarters. Boo hoo! The MBA is buying a building there for $100 million, but is paying a higher interest rate on its mortgage as its income declines and the leasing market is slow leaving it with no tenants for the building.

This couldn't have happened to a nicer association. After all, the MBA encouraged people to take out subprime mortgages -- many of which went bad. Despite the Fed's rate cuts from 5.25% to 2.25% mortgage interest rates are up thanks to bankers' fear of lending. And the resulting economic slowdown is making it harder for the MBA to find tenants for its building.

Let's survey the damage to the MBA. First, its membership has declined 17% in the last year and it predicts a 10% to 15% decline in revenue as a result. Bankers are making the MBA put up about 10% more of a down payment than it had planned and the lack of tenants has moved its lender to increase the financing costs slightly. Perhaps there's justice in the universe. If not, at least MBA's predicament is giving it a taste of its own medicine.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Mortgage Bankers Association struggles to pay its mortgage originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 07 Apr 2008 09:33:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Commercial real estate developers are no longer immune to the credit crunch hitting residential real estate owners and developers, according to today's Wall Street Journal. Yesterday in visible proof of the problem, a Las Vegas casino developer, Bruce Eichner, defaulted on a $750 million loan from Deutsche Bank because he was not able to refinance the debt. It's not the first time he's been caught up in a credit crunch. The Journal reports he lost several projects in New York City during its real estate downturn in the early 1990s.

The Journal also points out he's not the only one having trouble getting refinancing. Other commercial developers in trouble according to the Journal include:

• A major Australian shopping mall developer, one of the largest owners of shopping centers in the U.S., has been unable to refinance $3.4 billion in short-term debt.

• New York developer Harry Macklowe, who bought office buildings at the top of the commercial real estate market, can't refinance $7 billion in debt that's due in February. He's trying to sell his General Motors Building in midtown Manhattan to come up with cash.

Continue reading Mortgage mess impacting commercial real estate lending

Mortgage mess impacting commercial real estate lending originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 17 Jan 2008 10:47:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Aluminum Corp of China (NYSE: ACH) volume & volatility spikes on wide price swings. ACH is engaged in bauxite mining, alumina refining and aluminum smelting. ACH is recently up $10.73 to $64.81. ACH closed at $37.04 on 8/16/07. ACH call option volume of 6,490 contracts compares to put volume of 4,671 contracts. ACH September option implied volatility of 88 is above its 26-week average of 47 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.

Open Text (NASDAQ: OTEX) volatility Elevated at 80 into 8/30 EPS & Outlook. OTEX develops, markets, sells, and supports enterprise content management solutions. OTEX is recently down $0.29 to $19.98. OTEX will report EPS on August 30th. Canaccord Adams says: :We maintain our Hold recommendation and U.S. $18 target based on our Discounted Cash Flow analysis." OTEX September option implied volatility of 80 is above its 26-week average of 50 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Corus (NASDAQ: CORS) volatility elevated on exposure to commercial real estate. CORS is an active commercial real estate lender nationwide, specializing in condominium, hotel, office and apartment loans. CORS had outstanding commercial real estate loans and construction commitments of $8 billion as of 6/30/07. CORS over all option implied volatility of 60 is above its 26-week average of 49 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option update: Stocks with elevated implied volatility originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 27 Aug 2007 15:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Real estate only goes up: NYC building fetches highest per-square-foot price tag in history

Real estate only goes up: NYC building fetches highest per-square-foot price tag in history originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 02 Jul 2007 17:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Microsoft has said it will spend $2 billion on new technologies to combat the threat of Google, Yahoo!, eBay and the like. Which to shareholders means operating expense, to Google means let's throw a hundred products against the wall to see what sticks, and to college grads means money money money. But to Redmond, Washington?

It means cranes, concrete, and an "eye-popping" real estate market. A company headquarters that now employs 30,000 people could add 12,000 in the next two years -- 3.1 million square feet, or 14 new buildings to be constructed. As the New York Times points out, for Seattle "those are staggering numbers."

Seattle may be happy, or not. On one hand, the unemployment rate will certainly decrease if Microsoft is going new-hire crazy. On the other hand, the city is already clogged with traffic and real estate prices are ridiculous for the relatively small market.

[Photo OsakaSteve]

Microsoft no longer fits in Redmond, Wash originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 05 Jul 2006 13:09:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.