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AIG Ag (JJA): A basket of agricultural commodities

"Bull or bear, the grains don't care," chides Eric Roseman, editor of Commodity Trend Alert, who notes that his 'Feed the World investment theme' is tied to growing demand.

He explains, "Best of all, soft commodities maintain a negative correlation to common stocks – a great portfolio benefit and a solid hedge in down markets." Here, he looks at the iPath Dow Jones AIG Agriculture Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: JJA).

"While sub-prime has been wreaking market havoc since July, the grains have soared to new nominal highs. Agricultural commodities will remain subject to the healthy demand and tight supply conditions. Every investor must have exposure to this asset class.

"The supply picture for the grains complex continues to grow dire by the week. But despite hitting nominal highs this fall, corn, wheat and soybeans are still about 70% to 80% below their inflation-adjusted highs in 1980-1981. That means a doubling in values from these values is not only possible, but highly likely amid a growing shortage of wheat in 2008 and possibly, soybeans.

Continue reading AIG Ag (JJA): A basket of agricultural commodities

Best Stocks for 2008: Bad habits lead to good gains for Vice Fund (VICEX)

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"The market is looking increasingly fragile -- and our top pick for 2008 is a stellar investment that has all the makings of a bear-market killer: The Vice Fund (VICEX)," says Eric Roseman, editor of Commodity Trend Alert.

"This fund will do well as long as people continue to drink, smoke and gamble. The fund might not be the most wholesome investment in your portfolio, but it sure earns a big score for making bundles of dough from many industries currently shunned by investors and portfolio managers.

"And best of all, as the economy contracts, stocks in its highly concentrated and aggressive portfolio usually grow their corporate earnings while the broader market corrects. Bull or bear, it doesn't matter. The Vice Fund can generate profits in any economic environment -- provided people continue to gamble, drink and smoke.

"Launched in 2002, the Vice Fund is advised by Mutual Advisors, Inc, a small outfit with $177 million under management. But its size is actually highly advantageous to investors because of its ability to quickly enter and close trades and buy some companies that might be thinly traded.

Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Bad habits lead to good gains for Vice Fund (VICEX)

Best Stocks for 2008: Yamana Gold (AUY)

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"The momentum for large-cap gold producers looks very bullish and my top speculative idea for 2008 is Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY)," says Eric Roseman, editor of Commodity Trend Alert.

"Based in Toronto, Canada, Yamana is a large-cap gold-mining company with probably the best exploration portfolio in all of Central and South America.

"Yamana Gold had been heavily battered due to its buyout of Meridian Gold and Northern Orion. With these acquisitions now completed, the overhang of merger uncertainty has been lifted and the stock has sharply rallied off its 52-week low.

"The big picture for Yamana is a great portfolio of first-rate mines in Central and South America, booming earnings, rising positive cash-flow and production costs of $339 per ounce.

Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Yamana Gold (AUY)

Top resource ideas: ASA Ltd. (ASA) offers gold at a discount

This article is part of a 20 article special report on "Metals, miners and money".

In his Commodity Trend Alert, Eric Roseman believes a short-term correction is "highly likely." But the resource expert still considers ASA Limited (NYSE: ASA) a "terrific bargain."

He explains, "For value investors, a great buying opportunity in commodities looms this fall. The fundamentals for commodities remain extremely bullish as we progress into 2008. A weaker U.S. dollar, lower interest rates, and supply deficits across a spectrum of raw materials promises to snowball into another formidable rally for commodities."

However, he cautions, this buying opportunity will come after a "period of digestion." He observes, "Commodities indices have come a long way over the last two months following the mid-August market low. Heavy investor speculation in many raw materials -- namely oil, gold, and wheat -- implies a short-term correction is highly likely."

The advisor notes, "Banks, hedge funds, individual investors, and sovereign wealth funds are all on the same side of the dollar bear market ship; historically, too many bears on the same side of a trade means someone will lose their shirt -- and soon."

Continue reading Top resource ideas: ASA Ltd. (ASA) offers gold at a discount

High value in ethanol and grain

"Although the ongoing sub-prime scare compounded by private equity financing troubles have dealt markets a severe blow," commodity expert Eric Roseman contends, "This is just another correction in a long series of market hiccups over the last few years."

The editor of Commodity Trend Alert notes, "I doubt what is transpiring now will dramatically alter the secular bull market in commodities and global stocks."

He continues, "Private equity deals have been a big chunk of stock-market volume over the last 12 months. But they're almost small potatoes compared to the massive liquidity rush coming our way, courtesy of global central banks, namely in Asia, with a few trillion dollars' worth of reserves now heading into common stocks."

Roseman explains, "Fed-up with poor returns on dollar-denominated U.S. Treasury bonds, Asian and other central banks and their respective government-sponsored pension funds are starting to direct capital flows to global stock markets to fund future entitlement programs." That move alone, he notes, will ultimately provide an incredible liquidity rush to all markets, including commodities.

Continue reading High value in ethanol and grain

Metals trio for 'monumental' gains

"Get ready for central banks to 'talk down' gold," cautions Eric Roseman in his Commodity Trend Alert who nevertheless remains bullish and offers a trio of favorites.

"Gold prices, in a secular long-term bull market since 2001, continue to impress even the greatest of skeptics," he says. Indeed, he adds, "You've got to be impressed with this price action lately, even as major economy central banks continue to sell their hoard."

The advisor points out that as major central bands sell gold, the emerging market central banks are buying. He explains, "That's the case with Russia, China, and several other countries over the last three years. If I was running a central bank, you can bet your last fiat dollar I'd be selling paper money for gold!"

The advisor forecasts that central banks will start "talking down" bullion very soon. He observes that that is what happened last June as gold prices blasted past $700 an ounce.

He says, "Pretty soon, we'll hear statements like 'inflation is too high, rates have to rise,' or 'wage inflation threatens growth.' Whatever it is, central banks will try to smash the gold price lower once again."

As a result, he expects the metals prices to be "bumpy" on their way to higher levels. Indeed, his forecast calls for a move above $850 by the end of 2008, "if not sooner."

As for specific stocks, he says, "Sometimes, you have to make big bets on great companies that are selling at major discounts to peers in the same industry." And within the metals sector, he feels that describes Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) and Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW).

He explains, "Now is the time to build on price weakness when the market is giving you these stocks, literally, for almost nothing. Based on assets, cash-flow and growing reserves, these three mining stocks are trading at a major discount to other premium-priced companies in the same industry."

Overall, he concludes, "We've got some monumental gains coming our way for the precious metals. Make sure you own some of the best and largest names in the business at these distressed prices ahead of next historical rally."

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

Must-own oil service stocks

If you don't yet own oil-services stocks, commodity and resource expert Eric Roseman says "You better. I'm expecting big returns for everything energy-related in 2007."

In his Commodity Trend Alert, he states, "Whatever you do, hang on to your energy investments. By the end of this year, you'll be lighting firecrackers on New Year's Eve. I'm that sure." Here, he looks at some of his favorites, which he consider "must own" oil service plays.

The advisor notes that corrections for the energy complex occur in every bull market, and that the most recent one is no different. However, he notes, "What's incredible is how bearish sentiment had become for oil since earlier this month; just six months ago, analysts and traders were forecasting $100 per barrel by spring. They then began to forecast $40!"

Roseman, however, has remained bullish through the correction and notes, "In addition to tight supplies, still at 86 million barrels of oil per day against 84.5 million barrels consumed."

Continue reading Must-own oil service stocks

Top Picks 2007: Roseman likes Lukoil despite Putin risk

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

Lukoil Company (Other OTC: LUKOY) is the top speculative idea for 2007 from Eric Roseman, editor of Commodity Trend Alert.

The hedge fund and resource expert notes, "This stock marks the first time in 16 years that I'm making a recommendation in Russia. I usually don't feel good about investing in a country where shareholders are subjected to the spontaneous whims of a despot, but in this case, the story is just too compelling to ignore.

"Lukoil is world's second-largest oil company, and trades at a massive discount to ExxonMobil Corporation, despite producing almost the same annual oil production every year. For a value investor like me, quite frankly, it's all I need to know to make an investment in a secular bull market for energy.

"The big risk for long-term investors in Lukoil is not the price of oil or natural gas; I have no doubt in my mind that in five years, possibly less, this will be a $150 stock, if not more. The big risk is Putin and his intentions with Lukoil. Will the Russian president nationalize Lukoil? The risk with Russia is that Putin might sabotage shareholders.

Continue reading Top Picks 2007: Roseman likes Lukoil despite Putin risk

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Last updated: May 28, 2012: 06:13 AM

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