Minneapolis based General Mills, Inc. (NYSE: GIS) will be reporting its fiscal first quarter results Wednesday morning before the market opens.

The last time that General Mills reported earnings was on July 1 when the company outpaced analyst estimates of 81 cents per share by posting actual earnings of 86 cents for its fiscal fourth quarter. This time analysts are expecting to see the company show earnings of $1.03 per share.

After last year's crash, commodity prices have been sloshing around without too much direction. Oil has been a noticeable standout, however, moving from $32 per barrel to $74 per barrel.

Sugar has moved from about 15 cents per pound to 22 cents per pound, based on supply and demand factors.

Commodity traders are in a quandary about prices going forward. They are looking primarily at China and the U.S. dollar, reports BusinessWeek.

The reduction in global economic growth and growth expectations is leading to one benefit: a sharp decline in commodity prices, creating hope inflation may be peaking in many parts of the world, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday (subscription required).

Rice and palm oil, two commodities critical for the developing world, are both down about 40% since May, while the world's most vital commodity, crude oil, is down abut 23%, The Journal reported.

An end to surging commodity prices?

Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks Monday that while the commodity price-lower trend is still young, continued commodity price declines would be a welcomed sight, provided they don't drop too much.

"The pullback is welcome because many commodities had reached prohibitive levels, hindering commerce and really hurting the modest budgets of the poor/working poor in developing countries," Langan said. "However, too much of a price slide in commodities would be a sign of a pronounced global economic slowdown, which is something we don't want."

Further, Langan said that while regulators in various nations probe 'speculator' activity and alleged price manipulation in commodity markets, he argues that many of the price rises are consistent with historical price booms in other asset classes / sectors.

Benningan's, the casual dining chain where I had many bad dates, and Steak and Ale, a chain I never visited, have filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy protection, underscoring how cash-strapped diners are not finding deals like unlimited breadsticks all that tempting.

The two chains, which are owned by billionaire John Kluge, have been in financial hot water for months, according to The Wall Street Journal. The paper reports that the chains were so broke that they did not have enough money to pay their employees for the rest of the week.

"Metromedia Restaurant Group (Kluge's company) earlier this year violated several terms of a lending agreement with GE Capital Solutions," the Journal reports. "It had been in negotiations with lenders for months to stave off the filing, while closing some stores and looking for a buyer, said two people involved in the matter."

Rising labor costs and soaring prices for food are killing casual dining chains. Cheesecake Factory Inc. (NASDAQ: CAKE) recently reported disappointing second quarter results, which featured the biggest drop in same store sales in the dining chain's history. Last year, activist investor Nelson Peltz acquired a 14% interest in the company. Brinker International Inc. (NYSE: EAT), owner of Chilli's Bar and Grill, and IHOP parent DineEquity Inc. (NYSE: DIN) are both down by double digits this year.

There is no hope for a turnaround in these companies anytime soon. Much like diners in these establishments, investors in these stocks are in for a world of indigestion.

General Mills (NYSE: GIS), arch competitor of fellow cereal seller Kellogg (NYSE: K), posted some good news for shareholders on Monday. In an otherwise gloomy day that saw the Dow remain below the 12,000 level and inflationary pressures still exerting a hold over the market, General Mills proved that dividends are at least one island of safety in a sea of trouble.

The company indicated that it will now pay an annual dividend of $1.72 per share. Previously, the annual dividend was set at $1.57 per share. This is a nice example of double-digit appreciation of approximately 10%. Based on Monday's closing price, General Mills' stock now yields a hearty 2.7%.

As a long-term idea, General Mills is certainly one of the best. As I observed with Kellogg, you can put this one on perpetual dollar-cost-averaging. However, with the stock in 52-week-high territory, and with prices for commodities, especially corn, still exerting a negative effect on businesses, I'd be a bit cautious about entering just now. Is it possible one might get General Mills closer to a 3% yield? I can't predict the short-term future, but my gut says that a pullback is inevitable. Even with cool dividend increases, stocks can return to the low end of a 52-week range at any point. Just look at Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and the recent pressure its stock has been under. And Coke is a dividend stalwart. Nevertheless, I am bullish on General Mills' future. Just watch out for commodity trends, and perhaps remain patient for better prices on the shares.

Disclosure: I own Coke; positions can change at any time.

The Federal Reserve will almost certainly announce another rate cut on Tuesday. The only open question is how much it will be. According to MarketWatch, "After the Bear Stearns news, market bets that the central bank will cut interest rates by 75 basis points next Tuesday jumped, pricing in a 100% chance of such a move, compared with 88% previously."

If the Fed cuts less than .75, the markets are likely to sell-off quickly and brutally.

But, there are several reasons that the rate cut may disappoint investors. First, some Fed governors have said that inflation remains a worry. Wheat prices have tripled in ten months. The cost of food and other agricultural commodities are likely to rise. Metal commodity prices are moving up, making component costs for businesses like the car industry sky-rocket. Oil is above $100 a barrel, and that's making its way into the gas and diesel markets.

The Fed may also decide that its best way to help the economy is continue to lend money directly to banks. The size of the current facility is $200 million, but that could go up.

The cut may only be half a percent. That may be the right decision, but the market will almost certainly not see it that way.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

The currency of our realm, the US Dollar, has been losing value for many years, but lately the results of this sad state of affairs have become increasingly more evident. Concerns are mounting on a global basis not just in the United States. The euro, once pegged at a buck, is now trading at $1.55, while gold has passed $1,000 and oil has continued its charge, breaking through the $110 per barrel mark.

While a good deal of this problem is home grown, the pain is being felt all around the world. We have read many stories about how the American economy is a smaller part of the global economy and becoming somewhat detached. This is nonsense. What has happened is that the global economy has become infinitely more integrated and like any integrated structure (the architect speaking), what occurs in one place is felt everywhere.

The Federal Reserve Board, led by Chairman Ben Bernanke, has been watching the economy in an extremely measured fashion, bordering on casual. To those who see beyond Bernanke's calm demeanor, one should imagine a stock trader of old, holding the ticker tape up to his eyes and monitoring every change, every blip in the market as the ticker tape machine clicks away, spewing out the latest market activity.

With crude oil well over $100/barrel, gold surging to $1000 per ounce and commodity prices at an all-time high, the question is whether the Federal reserve should keep dropping interest rates. While the bond market is pricing in a cut, should the Fed do it? The Fed's main mandate is to keep prices stable, i.e., to keep inflation under control.

Market watchers attribute the rise in commodity prices to surging inflation and are looking at these hard assets to provide a hedge.

"Every other day, we've got a new record," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore, told The Associated Press. "It's due to the phenomenon of investors getting into commodities, the hard assets, to find a safer haven and a hedge against inflation."

Over the past 12 months, wholesale prices rose by 7.4%, the largest yearly gain since late 1981. Clearly, the Fed is failing at its own core mandate. The Fed needs to return to what it is supposed to do and fight inflation. Inflation will be deadlier for the economy than a few quarters of slowing growth.

The fed should resist Wall Street calls for lower rates (to help bail them out of their own self-created problems), and focus on the greater issue of the economy. Fighting inflation is paramount to this goal.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com.

China announced Wednesday it will tighten its monetary policy in 2008 for the first time in a decade to slow its surging economy, Channel News Asia reported Wednesday.

China said it would shift monetary policy from prudent to tight, but gave few specific details regarding the policy.
At the same, The Wall Street Journal reported that China's State Information Center, a think tank under the National Development and Reform Commission, said in a report published in the China Securities Journal that China should let the dollar-yuan rate move as much as 1% above or below the central parity rate [subscription required] in each daily trading session, up from 0.5% now.

China's sizzling economy has grown by over 10% annually for more than four years, and many economists expect another double-digit GDP gain in 2007, despite the Chinese government's effort to cool the economy. In 2006, China's GDP totaled $10.2 trillion in purchasing power parity terms and $2.5 trillion in real terms, according to research by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency.

Agrium (NYSE: AGU) volatility is flat as AGU at record high on strong fertilizer demand. AGU, an agricultural retailer and fertilizer producer, closed at $54.38. AGU over all option implied volatility of 39 is near its 26-week average of 38 according to Track Data, suggesting nondirectional risk.

Terra Industries (NYSE: TRA) volatility is flat; TRA is near record on demand for nitrogen. TRA, an international producer of nitrogen products for industry and agriculture, closed at $31.26. TRA is expected to report EPS on 10/25. TRA over all option implied volatility of 52 is near its 26-week average of 50 according to Track Data, suggesting nondirectional risk.

Option update provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

ExxonMobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) made headlines reporting an annual profit of $39.5 billion. So what?!

So what if a company capitalized at $440 billion earns less than 10% profit. Suppose you bought the entire company "lock, stock and barrel"; wouldn't you expect to make far greater than that? You would be taking on a massive amount of responsibility and risk! Currency risk, political risk (you go deal with Putin in Russia and Chavez in Venezuela, or worse in Iraq or Iran or Africa), workman's comp for oil derricks in the Gulf Coast and elsewhere, environmental risk, government regulation -- the list is endless.

When I invest, my anticipation is at least a 10% return. Who in the entire investment world would do this, unless of course you were buying bonds paying 5% to 7% without any work. The 70-year stock market average is about 10%.

There is nothing wrong with Exxon Mobil's profit, given its size. It would be sad if they could not make 10%, and consider that they only made this with very high oil prices! If the profits were so high and prospects so good, why isn't there a run on the stock?

Reports of a mild winter have been lost on me. I watched reports of snow in Malibu, California last week with amazement. I do not remember the last time that happened. Everyone in my household had to see it to believe it.

The Governor is declaring the fruit-killing, grower-crushing, brutal cold a state disaster. He will be seeking Federal assistance on the matter. Commentators are forecasting a loss of billions to the state, affecting growers, workers and truck drivers, not to mention consumers.

What really frosts me are all the reports I'm reading on the mild winter -- widely cited as one reason oil has been dropping. Mild compared to what, the South Pole? The Himalayas? The chill between the Donald and the View? Actually it has been cold but not very wet around Southern California, yet. But oil prices have been coming down. My prediction? Temperatures will rise again...and so will the price of oil.

Commodity prices have been softening for many months while the frost has been turning California strawberries to mush. We can all look forward to that commodity rising in price, as well as oranges, for the next few quarters.

Perhaps the surfers in Malibu who are also snowboard enthusiasts will find a path from the snow passages in the hills to the chilly beaches with winter wave action, in the first ever sleet and surf event. I'm sure Governor Schwarzenegger will be among the crowd. He might even participate depending on how fast he recovers from his recent skiing accident. Get well soon, Arnold!

Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here. Be sure and read You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.