General Mills (GIS) is buying a 50% stake in Yoplait from PAI Partners for roughly $1.1 billion, Reuters reported Thursday, citing sources close to the deal.

The deal is a nice fit for both companies. Yoplait is second to Danone (DANOY) in the yogurt market. General Mills has the industry presence to promote the Yoplait brand, something that would benefit PAI.

For General Mills, Yoplait would add an another revenue stream to an already diversified conglomerate. Some of General Mills' products include cereals, Haagen-Dazs ice cream, Green Giant vegetables and Progresso soup. The company has already been distributing Yoplait for 30 years, so the distribution network is already in place.

Aeropostale (ARO) primarily competes with other specialty retailers like American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Gap (GPS) and Urban Outfitters (URBN). The company has seen steady growth in its profit margins over the past few years. EBITDA margins have increased from 10.4% in 2005 to around 19% in 2009 as Aeropostale has generated growth in comparable store sales, a metric used to measure retail sales strength.

We expect this trend to continue as the company explores ways to further optimize its supply chain, thereby improving operational efficiency. However, increasing raw material prices and a prolonged weakness in consumer spending could pose a headwind to our optimistic EBITDA margin outlook.

The next year may bring higher global grain prices. Several factors are coming together to create supply-demand shortages. Let's first look at the demand side.

Globally, the demand for grains, both feed and consumer products, is increasing rapidly. Developing countries are coming out of the recession and their people are demanding more food products. Food prices are rising across the globe. A Wall Street Journal (subscription required) article states that the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said its Food Price Index rose 3.7% to 205 -- 44 points in November -- the fifth straight monthly increase. This takes the index to just 8 points below its peak in June 2008.

We have hundreds of indexes tracking everything that wiggles or moves. We are constantly searching for direction. Where is the market headed? Where is the economy going? Are we still in a recession? Will we see more growth next year? And on and on we go.

Well, here's a unique index -- two indexes in fact -- that track unusual products. The Commodity Research Bureau's raw industrials spot index, which includes print cloth, rosin and wool tops, soared to an all-time high last week, as reported in the Wall Street Journal. The Journal of Commerce/Economic Cycle Research Institute industrial price index, which tracks industrial metals, cotton, hides and tallow, hit a 2010 high last Friday -- just shy of its 2008 peak.

The gold market exploded Thursday with the December contract up $45.50 to $1,383.10 per ounce, as reported in the Wall Street Journal.

As usual, there are lots of reasons for the spectacular rise. The two main ones are currency worries and inflation.

Let's take the currency issue first. The December U.S. dollar contract is hovering just above the 75 level. That level held and the dollar then rose to 89.11. Now it has come back down to the 75 level. A breach of 75 would signal a further move down.

Is the world running on stimulus money or is there real demand for basic commodities?

What has been happening is that underdeveloped countries have been using stimulus money to stockpile raw commodities. Now there is a surplus. This, in turn, has led to a fall-off in commodity prices.

During the financial meltdown of 2008, we saw a sharp sell off of commodity prices. As the year 2009 began, countries around the world had stockpiles of raw commodities such as oil, iron ore and copper. Then, during the second half of 2009, developing countries saw their economies surge with new growth. This, in turn, sparked renewed demand for basic commodities.

Now, as we enter 2010, the continued demand from developing countries is expected to continue, putting pressure of commodity prices. Scarcity of any commodity or product is the determining factor in the price. Oil, for example, traded at $80.00 per barrel last week.

After last year's crash, commodity prices have been sloshing around without too much direction. Oil has been a noticeable standout, however, moving from $32 per barrel to $74 per barrel.

Sugar has moved from about 15 cents per pound to 22 cents per pound, based on supply and demand factors.

Commodity traders are in a quandary about prices going forward. They are looking primarily at China and the U.S. dollar, reports BusinessWeek.

General Mills (NYSE: GIS), arch competitor of fellow cereal seller Kellogg (NYSE: K), posted some good news for shareholders on Monday. In an otherwise gloomy day that saw the Dow remain below the 12,000 level and inflationary pressures still exerting a hold over the market, General Mills proved that dividends are at least one island of safety in a sea of trouble.

The company indicated that it will now pay an annual dividend of $1.72 per share. Previously, the annual dividend was set at $1.57 per share. This is a nice example of double-digit appreciation of approximately 10%. Based on Monday's closing price, General Mills' stock now yields a hearty 2.7%.

As a long-term idea, General Mills is certainly one of the best. As I observed with Kellogg, you can put this one on perpetual dollar-cost-averaging. However, with the stock in 52-week-high territory, and with prices for commodities, especially corn, still exerting a negative effect on businesses, I'd be a bit cautious about entering just now. Is it possible one might get General Mills closer to a 3% yield? I can't predict the short-term future, but my gut says that a pullback is inevitable. Even with cool dividend increases, stocks can return to the low end of a 52-week range at any point. Just look at Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and the recent pressure its stock has been under. And Coke is a dividend stalwart. Nevertheless, I am bullish on General Mills' future. Just watch out for commodity trends, and perhaps remain patient for better prices on the shares.

Disclosure: I own Coke; positions can change at any time.

The Federal Reserve will almost certainly announce another rate cut on Tuesday. The only open question is how much it will be. According to MarketWatch, "After the Bear Stearns news, market bets that the central bank will cut interest rates by 75 basis points next Tuesday jumped, pricing in a 100% chance of such a move, compared with 88% previously."

If the Fed cuts less than .75, the markets are likely to sell-off quickly and brutally.

But, there are several reasons that the rate cut may disappoint investors. First, some Fed governors have said that inflation remains a worry. Wheat prices have tripled in ten months. The cost of food and other agricultural commodities are likely to rise. Metal commodity prices are moving up, making component costs for businesses like the car industry sky-rocket. Oil is above $100 a barrel, and that's making its way into the gas and diesel markets.

The Fed may also decide that its best way to help the economy is continue to lend money directly to banks. The size of the current facility is $200 million, but that could go up.

The cut may only be half a percent. That may be the right decision, but the market will almost certainly not see it that way.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.