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commodity stocks posts

NovaGold (NG): 'Exceptional bet' in mining

"In the 2000s, as we've alternated between deflationary and inflationary worries, gold has been the only major investment to rise every year," says Stephen Leeb.

In his The Complete Investor, he explains, "We think that many miners are exceptional bets today. And among our favorite gold investments is one that we hold in our small cap value model portfolio: NovaGold Resources (AMEX: NG)."

"The case for mining stocks is that the price of gold rises faster than miners' costs, allowing margins to increase.

Continue reading NovaGold (NG): 'Exceptional bet' in mining

US Natural Gas (UNG): For 'Xcelerated Profits'

"After enduring one of the worst slumps on record, we're beginning to see a rebound in all major commodities market," says Lee Lowell, adding "But one commodity stands out in particular -- natural gas."

In Xcelerated Profits Report, he explains, "This could represent the best buying opportunity in several years." Here's his review of the United States Natural Gas Fund (NYSE: UNG).

"As it so often does, it's no surprise to see the energy market leading commodities higher over the past few weeks -- specifically, crude oil and natural gas.

Continue reading US Natural Gas (UNG): For 'Xcelerated Profits'

Plum Creek: Timber!

"With its strong balance Plum Creek Timber (NYSE: PCL) will be able to weather the real estate storm," says growth and income expert Stephen Leeb in The Complete Investor. Here is his look at the timber play.

"Plum Creek, which was added to our model portfolio in November, is the largest and most geographically diverse private landowner in the U.S. and owns more than 7.4 million acres of timberlands in the Pacific Northwest, the South, and the Northeast.

Continue reading Plum Creek: Timber!

Burlington Northern (BNI): On the right track

"It's hard to find any good news these days but I was pleasantly surprised with the third-quarter railway results, as almost all of the 'class 1 carriers' reported better than expected earnings," notes analyst Tom Slee.

The contributing editor to Gordon Pape's Internet Wealth Builder explains, "Several rail stocks are starting to look attractive at these depressed levels and Burlington Northern (NYSE: BNI) remains my preferred choice in the group." Here's his outlook.

"Even with the economic downturn starting to bite, reduced fuel costs and increased freight rates offset lower volumes. Equally important, the companies remain cautiously optimistic despite the miserable outlook.

"They are confident that further freight rate price increases in the 4% to 5% range are sustainable and will still allow them to undercut inefficient truckers.

"Unfortunately, none of this prevented the stocks from being battered during the market collapse. However, I think that fourth-quarter profits are likely to remain strong and the longer term outlook for railroads remains favorable.

"Burlington Northern continues to power ahead. A shrinking economy must eventually take its toll but there was no sign of any weakness in BNI's third-quarter results. Operating earnings came in at $1.91 a share, up 29% from $1.48 in 2007.

Continue reading Burlington Northern (BNI): On the right track

Thanksgiving pattern: A seasonal low for gold?

"Gold is now looking stronger; it is time that investors have gold in their portfolios," says Curtis Hesler. In the The Professional Timing Service, he looks at gold's seasonal patterns.

"I think they will rush to commodity-based assets because of the serious underinvestment phase the commodity sector is involved in now. This will lead to shortages and very high prices down the road in all commodities.

"Once the dollar begins to roll over, gold will be an instant benefactor. It is already looking stronger in my technical work, and it is time that investors should have gold in their portfolios. I still recommend that you put new money into the major gold miners only.

"We are approaching an interesting seasonal period for gold. Years ago, the Stock Trader's Almanac used to specify a seasonal trade in gold.

"Their study showed that if you bought ASA Ltd. (NYSE: ASA) at its low in November and sold it at its high in the first quarter of the next year, you would have averaged a gain of 87.8%.

Continue reading Thanksgiving pattern: A seasonal low for gold?

Brazilian drilling with Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR)

"Crude oil remains deeply oversold on an intermediate-term basis, suggesting a rally sometime in the early fall," says Dennis Slothower.

The editor of Stealth Stocks looks to Petroleo Brasileiro SA (NYSE: PBR) as his latest "stock of the month." Here's his review of the Brazilian firm that is now the world's 8th-largest oil company.

"The founding of Petrobras was authorized in October 1953, with the objective of executing, on behalf of the federal government, the activities of the oil sector in Brazil.

"Over the past five decades or so, the company has become the country's leader in the distribution of oil products, an activity not covered by the government monopoly, and today it is internationally acknowledged as the eighth-largest oil company in the world.

"Leading the sector in the development of one of the most advanced deepwater and ultra-deepwater technologies for oil production, PBR was twice (in 1992 and 2001) awarded the Offshore Technology Company (OTC) prize, the most important award in the sector.

Continue reading Brazilian drilling with Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR)

Union Pacific (UNP): 'Railroad renaissance'

"Railroads are a play on three big secular themes: the drive for increased energy efficiency, growth in coal and the agriculture boom," says Elliott Gue, a energy sector expert who has just returned from Japan where he was covering the G8 Summit.

Meanwhile, in his The Energy Srategist, he states, "Railroads are now among the most fuel-efficient forms of freight transport available." Here, he offers a bullish review of Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP).

"My long-held thesis on the group has been that the railroads are no longer totally dependent on the US economy for their growth.

"It's no longer appropriate to look at this sector as viciously economy sensitive. The traditional relationship between the broader market and the rails has been breaking down for several years, but this trend appears to be accelerating.

"In 2007, according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR), the average railroad moved a ton of freight a distance of 436 miles on a single gallon of diesel fuel. That makes freight trains roughly three to four times more fuel efficient than trucks.

"Union Pacific is the largest railroad in the US and has long been one of my favorites. The company's network is nearly 33,000 miles long and is concentrated in the West and Midwest. It also offers a convenient example of the bullish forces at work for the rails, particularly in the coal and agriculture industries.

Continue reading Union Pacific (UNP): 'Railroad renaissance'

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF): Hedge fund eyes steel maker

"As steel prices continue to climb, one company that is set to profit handsomely is Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE: CLF)," says Bill Martin.

Adding to the stock's appeal, the editor of BullMarket.com explains, "Event-driven hedge fund Harbinger Capital has been an aggressive buyer of the stock." Here's his review of the situation.

"Shares of Cleveland-Cliffs have been on fire, up over 150% year over year and they have more than doubled year to date. The Cleveland, Ohio-based company is the largest producer of iron ore pellets in North America and a major supplier of metallurgical coal to the global steel-making industry.

"Cleveland-Cliffs benchmarks iron ore prices to the price of steel, so when steel prices rise, so do iron ore prices. The company said all of its North American iron ore mines are producing at or near capacity.

"Cleveland-Cliffs ended the first quarter of 2008 with $186.5 million of cash and cash equivalents and $600 million in borrowings outstanding under an $800 million credit facility. The company expects to generate approximately $700 million in cash from operations in FY08 as it sells through its inventory.

"Event-driven hedge fund Harbinger Capital was an aggressive buyer of the stock in May, paying between $76.96 to $104.75 a share to add to its position in the name. For the month, the firm spent approximately $338.5 million to acquire nearly 3.7 million shares.

Continue reading Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF): Hedge fund eyes steel maker

Goldcorp (GG): Go for the gold

"The number one reason I like gold is because of inflation -- now a big problem in the emerging markets and the major economies," says resource expert Eric Roseman.

In his industry-leading Commodity Trend Alert, he says, "One of my favorite companies in the world is Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)." Here, he looks at this gold mining firm.

"Inflation sits at a nine-and-a-half-year high in Asia at 7.5%, a 15-year high in the Euro-zone at 3.7% and in the United States it's at 4.2% -- if you believe government data in the first place. I don't. I say inflation is running closer to 10% in 2008, not 4.2%.

"The cost of living, mainly in food and energy, is now totally out of control and destroying business margins and eroding the purchasing power of consumers, especially in the emerging markets where food and energy consumption devours more than 65% of wages.

"It seems very obvious to me that Asian governments have now lost control of inflation. The same applies to the Gulf countries which peg their currencies to the dollar. And in Europe, the European Central Bank is freaking out because of high inflation.

Continue reading Goldcorp (GG): Go for the gold

Valero (VLO): Ready for a refinery rebound?

Although he has been maintaining a cautious stance on the refining group, energy sector expert Elliott Gue is now boosting the rating on Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO).

In his The Energy Strategist, the advisor explains, "Valero is now attractive for three reasons: superior geographic exposure, refinery complexity and a new focus on profitability."

"Our caution on the refining group was due to expectations that crack spreads would be weak through the spring, a period during which spreads tend to widen. Overall, this call was correct: Refiners have underperformed the energy patch since mid-March.

"And longer term, I have some concerns about new refining capacity expansions due to come online over the next few years. As this supply comes online, it could put downside pressure on margins.

"But over the next six to nine months, the refiners look like a compelling play. Gasoline inventories are now back in line with seasonal norms; it's likely gasoline prices will now rally further relative to crude oil. In fact, we're already seeing an obvious spike in crack spreads.

Continue reading Valero (VLO): Ready for a refinery rebound?

Bulk up with bulk shipping stocks

"I think that the most compelling stocks are the dry bulk shippers," says Charles Payne. In his Wall Street Market Commentary, he looks at the sector, its implications for the economy and his favorite picks.

"The dry bulk shipping group had been under a fair amount of pressure after a meteoric rally that said rates would come on with a Tiger Woods-like rebound after swooning at the start of the year.

"I consider the dry bulk index the best barometer of the health of the global economy. There is no doubt that at some point higher crude oil becomes the headwind everyone says it is, but I'm still not sure that level has been reached yet.

"On the global stage, many nations are paying substantially more for gasoline than the U.S. and yet their economies continue to improve. Obviously, on the one hand we would like crude oil to respond to a demand tipping point by way of Americans saying 'no mas.'

"By the same token; however, it would also be encouraging to know/see the economy getting better even in the face of this would-be headwind. I have to say that recent slide in dry bulk rates could be more technical rather than some sort of reaction to higher crude oil; the long-term trend is intact and today's action is compelling.

"Our favorites in the group include Genco Shipping (NYSE: GNK) which looks great in current trading, Teekay Shipping (NYSE: TK), and Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX). All of these stocks are oversold and have tremendous room on the upside."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Potash (POT): Fertilzer 'breakout'

"Potash (NYSE: POT) scored a technical breakout by rising above $210," says technical expert Leo Fasciocco. In his Ticker Tape Digest, he says, "With earnings set to soar the stock now targets a move to $265."

"Postash, based in Canada, produces fertilizer. It produces phosphate and nitrogen from 12 facilities in the United States and South America. Fertilizer stocks have been strong due to rising profits reflecting strong demand for their products and rising prices.

"A long term chart shows an extraordinary bull market advance with the rising 170% the past 12 months versus an 8% decline in the S&P 500 index. Now, the stock has broken out from a seven-week flat base. The move carries POT to a new high on expanding volume.

Continue reading Potash (POT): Fertilzer 'breakout'

Breakout bet on Deere (DE)

Leo Fasciocco is a technical expert who focuses exclusively on finding breakout candidates. In his Ticker Tape Digest, he looks to agriculture equipment manufacturer Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE).

"Deere, with annual revenues of $24.8 billion, makes agricultural, industrial, forestry, and lawn-care equipment. DE is benefiting from the strong demand for its products in the farm sector. The company is also expanding aggressively in Russia.

"DE has broken out from a 13-week flat base. Its long-term chart shows DE soaring from 20 in 2003 - the start of the prior bull market - to 92. It has been a big winner in the big cap sector. The stock has gained 65% in the past 12 months versus a 5% drop in the S&P 500 index.

"The stock is in a base bracketed between roughly 78 on the downside and 91 on the upside. The breakpoint was set at the key upside resistance of the base. Deere has plowed through that resistance on increasing volume.

Continue reading Breakout bet on Deere (DE)

Consol Energy (CNX): Top play in coal

"Green investing and clean energy may be the politically correct topic at cocktail parties, but coal is the economically correct vehicle for investors," says Ronald Rowland and Brandon Clay.

The editors of All Star Investor explain, "Coal has been an energy source for millennia -- and is still the number #1 source of energy for electric power plants in the world." And, they add, "One of the best places to invest in coal is Consol Energy (NYSE: CNX).

"Prehistoric Chinese are said to have used coal for heating. According to Roman historians, Britain burned coal in the first century. Throughout history, coal has been the primary source of heat in homes.

"Rapidly industrializing nations like China are still dependent upon coal for energy. Overall global consumption has not diminished either. Coal fuels 48% of electricity plant generators. And the trend is heading upward – probably for the next 30 years. Despite the deafening rhetoric, coal is not going away anytime soon. Investors should take notice.

Continue reading Consol Energy (CNX): Top play in coal

DB Agriculture ETF (DBA): Growth for 'any portfolio'

"We're adding a position in one of our favorite ETFs for 2008: the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE: DBA), which provides investors with an alternative way to invest in the agricultural sector," says technical analyst and contrarian investor Chris Johnson.

The money manager and editor of Insightful Investor explains, "We feel a long-term position in DBA is appropriate for any investor's portfolio." Here is his review.

"One of the areas of the economy that we have been outwardly bullish on is the agricultural group. From a fundamental perspective, the 'ag play' is in full force, as demand and supply remain imbalanced. This has been a fantastic catalyst for a number of stocks that have to do with the agriculture sector, as we have heard in the news quite a bit lately.

"While we like the environment that this creates for a number of stocks, there is one agricultural investment that we do not hear trumpeted in the media as much as one might expect. We're referring to an investment in agricultural products, not the companies that help to produce the products.

Continue reading DB Agriculture ETF (DBA): Growth for 'any portfolio'

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DJIA-36.658,146.52
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S&P 500-3.55879.13

Last updated: July 10, 2009: 10:17 PM

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