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Posts with tag commodity trend alert

Goldcorp (GG): Go for the gold

"The number one reason I like gold is because of inflation -- now a big problem in the emerging markets and the major economies," says resource expert Eric Roseman.

In his industry-leading Commodity Trend Alert, he says, "One of my favorite companies in the world is Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)." Here, he looks at this gold mining firm.

"Inflation sits at a nine-and-a-half-year high in Asia at 7.5%, a 15-year high in the Euro-zone at 3.7% and in the United States it's at 4.2% -- if you believe government data in the first place. I don't. I say inflation is running closer to 10% in 2008, not 4.2%.

"The cost of living, mainly in food and energy, is now totally out of control and destroying business margins and eroding the purchasing power of consumers, especially in the emerging markets where food and energy consumption devours more than 65% of wages.

"It seems very obvious to me that Asian governments have now lost control of inflation. The same applies to the Gulf countries which peg their currencies to the dollar. And in Europe, the European Central Bank is freaking out because of high inflation.

Continue reading Goldcorp (GG): Go for the gold

Resource expert picks platinum fund

"Platinum is a picture-perfect image of a classic bull market that's getting more exciting by the day," says resource expert Eric Roseman.

In his Commodity Trend Alert the advisor explains, "Prices continue to explode higher amid the largest supply shortfall for any precious metal this decade. As such, I'm urging my readers to buy the new E-Tracs UBS Long Platinum ETN (NYSE: PTM)."

"Find me a commodity -- any commodity -- that's approaching or extending a net supply deficit situation and I'll compel you to buy that commodity ahead of a major rally; that's what's happening now to platinum. Indeed, no other precious metal is suffering more from growing supply shortages since last year -- and it's getting worse.

"Platinum production in South Africa, which accounts for about 80% of global output, declined 4.9% to 5.04 million ounces in 2007 as a result of smelter closures and a host of safety issues that interrupted mining operations.

Continue reading Resource expert picks platinum fund

Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy: Time for a TAN

"Renewable fuels and clean energy, a sector beaten down hard since last fall, are now primed for a major comeback," says Eric Roseman, editor of The Commodity Trend Alert. Here's his ETF play on the sector.

"With every passing day the price of crude oil rises, the secular trend to alternative energy becomes even more powerful. Consumers, companies and governments are now sick and tired of soaring energy prices.

"The long-term solution is to obviously reduce our dependence on oil and increase our consumption of renewable fuels like wind, solar, and nuclear energy.

"The bull market in alternative energy began in 2005 when a host of companies in this thriving sector went public, supported by government subsidies, especially in Germany and Spain. Interestingly, Germany and Spain have just reduced solar energy subsidies this spring.

"In my view, those subsidy cuts don't matter at this stage. When companies in the solar sector are making money, why should governments continue subsidizing them?

Continue reading Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy: Time for a TAN

Resource expert sets sights on clean energy

"Oil is setting the stage for a big rally in alternative energy," says Eric Roseman, resources expert and editor of Commodity Trend Alert. Here's a look at two stocks poised to benefit from this trend.

"A surging oil price is extremely bullish for alternative energy. Over the last 12 months, as oil prices have doubled, uranium and solar energy stocks have crashed.

"These sectors have declined because sub-prime has taken everything to the basement until recently - not because solar energy or uranium are flawed investment themes.

"That's why we've recently placed new trades on Suntech Power Holdings (NYSE: STP) and Cameco (NYSE: CCJ). There's no way high oil prices won't encourage more interest in these distressed sectors.

Continue reading Resource expert sets sights on clean energy

COW: Resources expert turns bullish on meat

"We're bullilsh on meats," says Eric Roseman, who notes, "I'm convinced we're finally at a turning point in 2008 as farmers continue to cull their herds. At some point, I'm expecting beef and pork prices to surge."

Here, the resources expert and editor of The Commodity Trend Alert looks at an exchange-traded note with a memorable trading symbol -- iPath Dow Jones Livestock (NYSE: COW). Here is his review.

"With virtually all commodities soaring over the last several months, the meats have been a disappointment - until about ten days ago. I think we finally broke-out.

"Like the grains, livestock maintain a negative correlation to common stocks. It's a great portfolio diversification tool, especially in 2008 when equities cratered during the first quarter and most commodities rallied. Live cattle and lean hogs have been poor inflation-adjusted investments or speculations since the bull market in raw materials was set afire in 2002.

"Over the last six years, live cattle and lean hogs have gained just under 30% in nominal terms, or up barely 4% adjusted for inflation. That pales compared to the huge gains logged by the base metals, precious metals, the grains and other commodities.

Continue reading COW: Resources expert turns bullish on meat

Contrarian bites into Hershey (HSY)

"It's time to go value investing," says contrarian Eric Roseman, adding, "It's time to sink your teeth into America's oldest confectionary company" -- The Hershey Corporation (NYSE: HSY).

The editor of the industry-leading Commodity Trend Alert explains, "We love chocolate and want to own a great brand name that is likely to be acquired or partially acquired by a competitor at this low price." Here is his review.

"There's nothing more satisfying than a candy bar -- well, almost. I get even more excited about finding a great company or, in this case, a chocolate franchise selling at a distressed price, paying a nice dividend and home to shareholder activists seeking to boost their return on equity.

"We have regularly sought to identify distressed or contrarian blue chip stocks since 2001. The bottom line has to be deep-value and a strong catalyst for change as corporate earnings perform a 360-degree turn.

"Over the last two years, Hershey's common stock has been a real dog. HSY has shed almost half of its value since 2006, as investors grow frustrated with its board, ownership structure, faltering sales and a rudderless earnings strategy.

Continue reading Contrarian bites into Hershey (HSY)

Global gains: A Canadian 'gem' at Cameco (CCJ)

"I love buying great companies near the bottom of the barrel," says resources expert Eric Roseman, who has added Canadian-based Cameco Corp. (NYSE: CCJ) to his buy list.

The edtior of The Commodity Trend Alert explains, "Cameco, the world's largest uranium concern, is a gem, right in the middle of a long-term earnings boom amid high energy prices and a massive backlog of orders for its raw material used to feed nuclear reactors." Here is his review.

"I'm drawn to quality at a distressed price, for whatever reason, such as earnings-related surprises, management changes, special one-time write-downs, etc. Most of our recommendations are founded on exactly these principles of value-contrarian investing.

"Cameco Corporation was a $60 stock 12 months ago, but because of production bottlenecks caused by a major flood at one of its biggest mines (Cigar Lake) in late 2006, the stock suffered a beating and has bounced all over the map lately. Yet, for years, Cameco was Canada's uranium darling and I always wanted to own this gem. But the problem was, Cameco always fetched a high price, and I hate paying top dollar - even for a great business.

Continue reading Global gains: A Canadian 'gem' at Cameco (CCJ)

AIG Ag (JJA): A basket of agricultural commodities

"Bull or bear, the grains don't care," chides Eric Roseman, editor of Commodity Trend Alert, who notes that his 'Feed the World investment theme' is tied to growing demand.

He explains, "Best of all, soft commodities maintain a negative correlation to common stocks – a great portfolio benefit and a solid hedge in down markets." Here, he looks at the iPath Dow Jones AIG Agriculture Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: JJA).

"While sub-prime has been wreaking market havoc since July, the grains have soared to new nominal highs. Agricultural commodities will remain subject to the healthy demand and tight supply conditions. Every investor must have exposure to this asset class.

"The supply picture for the grains complex continues to grow dire by the week. But despite hitting nominal highs this fall, corn, wheat and soybeans are still about 70% to 80% below their inflation-adjusted highs in 1980-1981. That means a doubling in values from these values is not only possible, but highly likely amid a growing shortage of wheat in 2008 and possibly, soybeans.

Continue reading AIG Ag (JJA): A basket of agricultural commodities

Best Stocks for 2008: Bad habits lead to good gains for Vice Fund (VICEX)

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"The market is looking increasingly fragile -- and our top pick for 2008 is a stellar investment that has all the makings of a bear-market killer: The Vice Fund (VICEX)," says Eric Roseman, editor of Commodity Trend Alert.

"This fund will do well as long as people continue to drink, smoke and gamble. The fund might not be the most wholesome investment in your portfolio, but it sure earns a big score for making bundles of dough from many industries currently shunned by investors and portfolio managers.

"And best of all, as the economy contracts, stocks in its highly concentrated and aggressive portfolio usually grow their corporate earnings while the broader market corrects. Bull or bear, it doesn't matter. The Vice Fund can generate profits in any economic environment -- provided people continue to gamble, drink and smoke.

"Launched in 2002, the Vice Fund is advised by Mutual Advisors, Inc, a small outfit with $177 million under management. But its size is actually highly advantageous to investors because of its ability to quickly enter and close trades and buy some companies that might be thinly traded.

Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Bad habits lead to good gains for Vice Fund (VICEX)

Best Stocks for 2008: Yamana Gold (AUY)

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"The momentum for large-cap gold producers looks very bullish and my top speculative idea for 2008 is Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY)," says Eric Roseman, editor of Commodity Trend Alert.

"Based in Toronto, Canada, Yamana is a large-cap gold-mining company with probably the best exploration portfolio in all of Central and South America.

"Yamana Gold had been heavily battered due to its buyout of Meridian Gold and Northern Orion. With these acquisitions now completed, the overhang of merger uncertainty has been lifted and the stock has sharply rallied off its 52-week low.

"The big picture for Yamana is a great portfolio of first-rate mines in Central and South America, booming earnings, rising positive cash-flow and production costs of $339 per ounce.

Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Yamana Gold (AUY)

Top resource ideas: ASA Ltd. (ASA) offers gold at a discount

This article is part of a 20 article special report on "Metals, miners and money".

In his Commodity Trend Alert, Eric Roseman believes a short-term correction is "highly likely." But the resource expert still considers ASA Limited (NYSE: ASA) a "terrific bargain."

He explains, "For value investors, a great buying opportunity in commodities looms this fall. The fundamentals for commodities remain extremely bullish as we progress into 2008. A weaker U.S. dollar, lower interest rates, and supply deficits across a spectrum of raw materials promises to snowball into another formidable rally for commodities."

However, he cautions, this buying opportunity will come after a "period of digestion." He observes, "Commodities indices have come a long way over the last two months following the mid-August market low. Heavy investor speculation in many raw materials -- namely oil, gold, and wheat -- implies a short-term correction is highly likely."

The advisor notes, "Banks, hedge funds, individual investors, and sovereign wealth funds are all on the same side of the dollar bear market ship; historically, too many bears on the same side of a trade means someone will lose their shirt -- and soon."

Continue reading Top resource ideas: ASA Ltd. (ASA) offers gold at a discount

High value in ethanol and grain

"Although the ongoing sub-prime scare compounded by private equity financing troubles have dealt markets a severe blow," commodity expert Eric Roseman contends, "This is just another correction in a long series of market hiccups over the last few years."

The editor of Commodity Trend Alert notes, "I doubt what is transpiring now will dramatically alter the secular bull market in commodities and global stocks."

He continues, "Private equity deals have been a big chunk of stock-market volume over the last 12 months. But they're almost small potatoes compared to the massive liquidity rush coming our way, courtesy of global central banks, namely in Asia, with a few trillion dollars' worth of reserves now heading into common stocks."

Roseman explains, "Fed-up with poor returns on dollar-denominated U.S. Treasury bonds, Asian and other central banks and their respective government-sponsored pension funds are starting to direct capital flows to global stock markets to fund future entitlement programs." That move alone, he notes, will ultimately provide an incredible liquidity rush to all markets, including commodities.

Continue reading High value in ethanol and grain

Metals trio for 'monumental' gains

"Get ready for central banks to 'talk down' gold," cautions Eric Roseman in his Commodity Trend Alert who nevertheless remains bullish and offers a trio of favorites.

"Gold prices, in a secular long-term bull market since 2001, continue to impress even the greatest of skeptics," he says. Indeed, he adds, "You've got to be impressed with this price action lately, even as major economy central banks continue to sell their hoard."

The advisor points out that as major central bands sell gold, the emerging market central banks are buying. He explains, "That's the case with Russia, China, and several other countries over the last three years. If I was running a central bank, you can bet your last fiat dollar I'd be selling paper money for gold!"

The advisor forecasts that central banks will start "talking down" bullion very soon. He observes that that is what happened last June as gold prices blasted past $700 an ounce.

He says, "Pretty soon, we'll hear statements like 'inflation is too high, rates have to rise,' or 'wage inflation threatens growth.' Whatever it is, central banks will try to smash the gold price lower once again."

As a result, he expects the metals prices to be "bumpy" on their way to higher levels. Indeed, his forecast calls for a move above $850 by the end of 2008, "if not sooner."

As for specific stocks, he says, "Sometimes, you have to make big bets on great companies that are selling at major discounts to peers in the same industry." And within the metals sector, he feels that describes Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) and Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW).

He explains, "Now is the time to build on price weakness when the market is giving you these stocks, literally, for almost nothing. Based on assets, cash-flow and growing reserves, these three mining stocks are trading at a major discount to other premium-priced companies in the same industry."

Overall, he concludes, "We've got some monumental gains coming our way for the precious metals. Make sure you own some of the best and largest names in the business at these distressed prices ahead of next historical rally."

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

Must-own oil service stocks

If you don't yet own oil-services stocks, commodity and resource expert Eric Roseman says "You better. I'm expecting big returns for everything energy-related in 2007."

In his Commodity Trend Alert, he states, "Whatever you do, hang on to your energy investments. By the end of this year, you'll be lighting firecrackers on New Year's Eve. I'm that sure." Here, he looks at some of his favorites, which he consider "must own" oil service plays.

The advisor notes that corrections for the energy complex occur in every bull market, and that the most recent one is no different. However, he notes, "What's incredible is how bearish sentiment had become for oil since earlier this month; just six months ago, analysts and traders were forecasting $100 per barrel by spring. They then began to forecast $40!"

Roseman, however, has remained bullish through the correction and notes, "In addition to tight supplies, still at 86 million barrels of oil per day against 84.5 million barrels consumed."

Continue reading Must-own oil service stocks

Top Picks 2007: Roseman likes Lukoil despite Putin risk

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

Lukoil Company (Other OTC: LUKOY) is the top speculative idea for 2007 from Eric Roseman, editor of Commodity Trend Alert.

The hedge fund and resource expert notes, "This stock marks the first time in 16 years that I'm making a recommendation in Russia. I usually don't feel good about investing in a country where shareholders are subjected to the spontaneous whims of a despot, but in this case, the story is just too compelling to ignore.

"Lukoil is world's second-largest oil company, and trades at a massive discount to ExxonMobil Corporation, despite producing almost the same annual oil production every year. For a value investor like me, quite frankly, it's all I need to know to make an investment in a secular bull market for energy.

"The big risk for long-term investors in Lukoil is not the price of oil or natural gas; I have no doubt in my mind that in five years, possibly less, this will be a $150 stock, if not more. The big risk is Putin and his intentions with Lukoil. Will the Russian president nationalize Lukoil? The risk with Russia is that Putin might sabotage shareholders.

Continue reading Top Picks 2007: Roseman likes Lukoil despite Putin risk

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Last updated: July 20, 2008: 02:50 AM

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