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Posts with tag computers

Corning (GLW): Profits on display

Readers of this space know that my investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and which have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. In general, turnaround and business model change plays are avoided, but there are exceptions to the rule, and one is Corning.

Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW), once a reliable but slow-growth kitchenware and cookware company, today represents one of the signature corporate transformation stories of the digital age.

Corning is one of the leading providers of fiber-optic cable, which the company invented more than 30 years ago. Further, its substrates business did not draw Wall Street's attention until technological advances enabled the price-competitive production of flat panel displays in flat panel televisions, desktop monitors and notebook computers.

Continue reading Corning (GLW): Profits on display

Intel (INTC) still has the intelligence edge

Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. With this in mind, Intel is worth an evaluation.

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is the world's largest semiconductor maker, as measured by revenue and unit shipments, and is the dominant microprocessor manufacturer for personal computers.

In general, analysts expect F2008 revenue to increase 5-7%, after an 8% increase in F2007. The conventional wisdom in semiconductor analysis land now suggests that smaller/more-portable computer forms and media-rich PDAs will drive strong PC and PDA microprocessor sales.

Further, Intel remains the leader in next-generation chip technology, and its product mix remains superior. Gross margins should increase, as a result of lower unit costs and improved plant utilization. Also, high-performance chip prices should increase noticeably.

Continue reading Intel (INTC) still has the intelligence edge

Western Digital has the drive for success

The choppy/consolidating (or perhaps worse) market conditions sometimes give the impression that growth plays do not exist, but that is not the case, and one growth company worth reviewing is Western Digital Corp.

Western Digital Corp. (NYSE: WDC) is one of largest, independent hard drive manufacturers in the world.

In general, analysts see 35%-45% revenue growth in FY 2008, reflecting the Komag acquisition, and solid PC hard drive and DVD hard drive demand.

Continue reading Western Digital has the drive for success

Dell's retail conundrum

Dell computer Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) wants to sell PCs at retail outlets, but it does not want to take away some of the customers who buy its products on the internet. And the company can't have it both ways.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "As Dell broadens from just selling its wares directly over the internet and by phone, it risks siphoning off its web customers, who represent the majority of its consumer sales."

Taking such a gradual approach may hurt the company. Most of Dell's competitors, including HP (NYSE: HPQ) and Lenovo, offer a very broad set of products through most consumer electronics retailers. Even Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) now sells though some large stores.

Since Dell is losing market share to most of the other large PC manufacturers, its philosophy of holding back some of its product line is puzzling. HP is now the leading vendor of computers in the U.S., and recent research shows that Apple is picking up substantial market share.

Trying to decide which products will be offered to consumers at retail and which will be seen only on Dell's website seems to be a complex formula that may only result in lower sales.

The consumer wants what he wants when he wants it. Making it harder for him to buy is a bad idea.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Lenovo joins PC makers in fashionable catfight with Apple

Lenovo laptop Lenovo, the Chinese PC company, is known for producing good laptops for businesses. But with Mac sales moving up sharply, going after Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) seems too hard to resist.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "As with many of its competitors, Lenovo is emphasizing design and style, and trying to turn notebooks into fashion accessories that reflect individual personality." Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) and HP (NYSE: HPQ) are also coming out with fancy, feature-full PCs.

The problem, of course, is that the field for Mac-like computers will become crowded very quickly. That leads to the question of whether the PCs will be able to get some market share from the Mac or actually just compete with one another.

The success of the new computers will depend on several things. One is whether consumers are willing to use Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Vista over the Apple OS, which has gotten very good reviews. Another is whether the new PCs can match most of the attractive design features of the Mac.

But the most important factor may be price. If PC manufacturers can bring most of the Mac's features to market for several hundred dollars less per machine, then they have a chance.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Leaving the Microsoft world for Apple

Reflection in an Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iMacMy in-laws have been using Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) computers forever. I have been using Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Windows-based machines, because most of our software and that of our engineering consultants was not supported on Macs. This extended to our home/studio. Well, a few years ago my daughter (remember, the iPhone enthusiast?) got an Apple notebook, then my wife did, then six months ago my 11 year old got one. iMacs are taking over the house.

Apple has made a lot of strides in the past 18 months to make all this switching much more easy. From using Intel processors, to adopting Windows options, to improving the operating system and already having the historically superior machine in terms of stability, anti-virus environment, better graphics and sound integration and more innovation on all levels.

So what does the Microsoft-based Windows PC offer me? As far as I can figure out, there are two advantages. The first is price: Apple charges extra for the cool factor, as it does with everything it produces. Although you have to give Apple credit for innovation and its R&D efforts, that has a cost. Microsoft is not known for innovation. The second thing a Windows PC offers is the greater number of programs available. The second attribute is bound to change as more and more people buy Macs and software companies and developers look to grow with that end of the market.

Continue reading Leaving the Microsoft world for Apple

Cisco (CSCO) sees an interconnected future

Cisco (NYSE: CSCO) logoContinuing with our defensive stock series for a choppy/consolidating market: generally, one would not list a tech stock as a defensive play. Cisco Systems (NYSE: CSCO) is an exception.

Two fundamentals warrant the advocacy of Cisco as a defensive play: 1) the company supplies the majority of networking equipment used for the internet -- it is the world's largest supplier of computer internetworking systems, and 2) emerging market growth. So long as the internet remains intrinsic to business processes in emerging/developed markets and so long as emerging markets continue to grow, Cisco will benefit in the years ahead. Analysts project a roughly 15%-20% annual revenue growth rate for CSCO for 2007-2009. Another positive: look for CSCO's advanced technologies unit to continue to contribute impressively to the company's revenue on video system business.

Further, we'll skip for this review the debate regarding the possible "broadband shortage" and focus instead on the counterargument. Assume deteriorating conditions in the U.S., perpetually high energy prices slowing global growth, and increased protectionist sentiment. The impact on Cisco? Most likely, CSCO keeps growing, albeit at a slower rate, but it will grow, nonetheless. CSCO's shares closed Wednesday down 28 cents to $31.26.

[Note: Technical analysis agnostics stop reading here; all others continue.]

Technically, Cisco's chart is strong. True, the stock has recently retreated from a 52-week high of around $33.60, but this came after an impressive advance from the $26-range. Cisco has dipped below its 50-day moving average for the second time in four months, but it's been above its 200-day moving average for more than a year. The p/e of 27 is elevated, but this is not an unreasonable p/e, given CSCO' s likely strong revenue growth.

Stock Analysis: Cisco (CSCO) is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 1 year should be rewarded from CSCO's shares. Sell/Stop Loss: $22.

Lenovo: more competition for Dell

Chinese PC-maker Lenovo, which owns the former IBM (NYSE: IBM) PC operations, will open plants (subscription required) in India to supply that market and in Mexico to supply the US. Lenovo has the largest market share of the PC market in China but has put less emphasis on other emerging markets and North America.

That may be changing as the company takes on Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) and HP (NYSE: HPQ) in India and the US.

HP is less vulnerable. It has large printer, services, and server businesses and its global PC market share puts it in the No.1 spot.

Dell is less fortunate. Recent IDC and Gartner data show the company losing global share. Lenovo's CEO and supply chief are both former Dell executives.

Dell hardly needs the competition. In the midst of a turnaround now that founder Michael Dell has returned at CEO, the company has to bank on not having a sharp drop in revenue as customers move purchases to other PC-makers.

That turnaround just got a bit more difficult.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Today's perfect checkers player, tomorrow's perfect trader?

At last scientists have done what once seemed impossible: Created a computer program that cannot be beaten at checkers. According to the Associated Press, researchers at the University of Alberta have developed Chinook, a program that is literally perfect at checkers: Playing against a human who does not make a single mistake, the game would end in a draw.

This week, the researchers will be testing Polaris, their poker-playing computer against two poker professionals for a $50 thousand purse. While this might seem inane, researchers believe it could lead to developments with far greater utility.

Historically, much of the innovation in financial markets and quantitative finance has been based on game theory, and ideas that were originally conceived and applied in relation to games like checkers.

The development of a perfect checkers-player is a pretty big leap, and could signal big changes coming in the world of trading.

New data shows Dell falling behind

New studies by both the Gartner and IDC research firms, show Dell's (NASDAQ: DELL) global market share falling further behind HP (NYSE: HPQ).

HP's shipments rose 35% in Q2 while Dell's fell 5%, according to the Gartner numbers. The FT quoted one researcher: "Dell volume continued to decline as the company restructures itself amid aggressive competition. Commercial volume was relatively stable, while consumer shipments declined rapidly with Dell moving away from the low end," IDC said.

The studies show that price wars are also continue to put pressure on margins.

The most important information from the studies raises questions about whether Dell is really in the midst of a turnaround or if that process is still in the future. The return of Michael Dell to the CEO job and a modest improvement in revenue in Q1 have lead some investors to think that the company's fortunes are improving. Dell's shares are up 30% over the last year.

But, if Dell's unit volume is slipping and price pressure continues, it is hard to see how any resurrection at the company is likely to happen in the next quarter.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Dell's shockingly good results

Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL), the Texas-based computer manufacturer, shocked Wall Street last night with a massive 240 basis point expansion of gross margins. The stock was up as much as $2 in after-hours trading.

What was the response by sell-side analysts? Disbelieve. Merrill Lynch said sell into strength while Cowen & Co maintained its Neutral rating on the stock. However, Bernstein Research, a research firm known for sticking its neck out, had and continues to have, an Outperform rating on the stock.

Dell grew revenue year-over-year by 3%, besting estimates expecting little if any growth. Higher average selling prices and lower component costs helped results.

Dell's quick turnaround seems somewhat similar to what happened over at Motorola Inc (NYSE: MOT). Dell's new head of global consumer products, Ronald Garriques, worked closely with Ed Zander to help Motorola's quick turnaround. Maybe he is doing the same at Dell. Stay with the stock for a nice ride. When Dell's model is on track, it can generate a lot of cash.

A warning for Wal-Mart

Last year, Wal-Mart's (NYSE: WMT) advertising agency at the time, GSD&M Advertising, wrote a report that said some of the retailers pricing might actually be too cheap. The 50 plus page report was leaked to The New York Times.

No wonder the agency was fired.

While Wal-Mart says that the report is outdated, it offers some fascinating theories. The most important recommendaiton is that prices that are too cheap on high end items might make Wal-Mart's goods seem as if they were of lower quality than those sold at outlets like Target (NYSE: TGT).

As Wal-Mart's same store sales have dropped in the US, the report said that the big retailer is the first choice of only 67% of its shoppers. The number was 75% the year before.

The report's content, based on interviews with large numbers of Wal-Mart customers may well have some valuable insights for the company, but it appears that they are falling on deaf ears.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Walter Mossberg: Technology for the masses

Walter Mossberg is one of the most widely read technology writers of our time. He writes for the Wall Street Journal and his column, Personal Technology, is the flagship of WSJ's Thursday Marketplace section. I have a developing respect for Mr. Mossberg since first encountering his work. He tends to write in a manner that suits my perspective, that being "the view from the trenches." He believes that technological developments in the consumer products realm are bordering on useless if you need to take a night class to understand them. I tend to agree with him.

If you have the time, and journalistic excellence tinted with technology interests or inspires you, then I have a link here which might be the best reading you'll do this month. This article by Ken Auletta is from The New Yorker and is titled "Critical Mass: Everyone Listens to Walter Mossberg." The article poses as a profile of Walter Mossberg, but I promise that it holds significantly more than that for you. It's really just a passing glimpse as far as revealing the deeper character of Mr. Mossberg, but as a condensed examination of the pre-consumer technology world it imparts a solid perspective on where technology writing has been and where it is headed.

Would-be tech bloggers and consumer product reviewers owe it to themselves to read Ken Auletta's article. Technology buffs, geeks, and gadget-heads of all types will find it worthwhile also. It's clean, easy reading with enough color to pull you through to the end. When I myself finished reading it, I then felt, and still do feel, more than a little bit humbled.

Dell rethinking sales strategy

With shares of Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) down to $25 from the $40 price at which it began 2005, Michael Dell is rethinking the direct selling strategy that made Dell one of the most successful computer companies in the world. In a memorandum sent to Dell employees on Wednesday, Mr. Dell wrote that "The direct model has been a revolution, but it is not a religion." Some analysts have suggested that Dell should try to become the exclusive printer and computer supplier for an electronics retailer. BloggingStocks's Gary Sattler has even suggested that the company merge with RadioShack (NYSE: RSH).

But here's the problem: What exactly is Dell's competitive advantage in that arena? Dell became a $50 billion company by offering computers manufacturer-direct, cutting out the middleman, and being the lowest cost producer of its product. With companies like Acer taking Dell on on price, Dell's competitive advantage may just be a thing of the past. Computers are now a commodity, and the company that can do it with the lowest cost wins. Margins are shrinking, and it just isn't the great business it once was.

I wish Dell the best of luck in reinvigorating his company, and he's a brilliant enough man that he just may be able to do it. But if he can, it will be by answering this question: "What can Dell offer consumers that no one else can?"

How can some analysts be so optimistic about Dell?

Wall Street analysts rushed to the rescue of Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) after the computer maker reported that an internal accounting probe found evidence of misconduct.

Prudential Equity Group analyst Jesse Tortora argued that Dell probably won't face delisting or criminal charges against current executives and Merrill Lynch's Richard Farmer says a major restatement is unlikely, according to the Associated Press.

Their optimism is understandable. Shares of Dell have plunged 20% this year and analysts will certainly look like a geniuses by urging investors to buy the stock when it's cheap. Analysts often come out with positive notes whenever one of their companies has bad news. Sometimes it helps the stock and other times it doesn't.

Dell shares are down in early trading. Investors are betting that things may get worse for Dell.

After all, Dell is losing marketshare to Hewlett-Packard Co. (NASDAQ: HPQ). I almost forgot to mention that it's delayed its 10-K, which is never a good sign.

My colleague Georges Yared wrote earlier today that it was "absolutely amazing" that Dell's shares have held up at their current level. I agree. But even the most aggressive growth investor avoids companies with accounting issues like plutonium. Fund manager Mike Green of Benham & Green Capital Management , who owns Dell shares, told Bloomberg News, "I want to find out what's going on with the accounting. I want to see it in black and white."

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Last updated: July 20, 2008: 02:59 AM

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