The New York Times reports that the cost to bailout Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) could hit $25 billion. But that cost dwarfs what the collapse of the real estate market might cost our country in total. I think $8 trillion is a reasonable estimate -- that's about 56% of our $14.2 trillion Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Why are we talking about a taxpayer bailout of these two government sponsored entities (GSEs)? After all, shareholders own them but there's some vague notion that since they're GSEs, government should bailout the investors who bought their $5.2 trillion worth of mortgage-backed securities (MBSs).

So how did the government pick the $25 billion figure? It turns out that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) doesn't know how much the bailout will cost. So it is developing different scenarios. One suggests that a bailout will cost nothing. Another suggests that there's a 5% chance that the bailout will cost $100 billion. I think this means that the bailout has an expected value of $5 billion (the chance of the scenario times its cost). Regardless, the CBO's $25 billion looks like it will be joined by an estimate that follows the Fed and OCC's look at the books of Fannie and Freddie.

Continue reading Will the real estate collapse cost America $8 trillion?

Will the real estate collapse cost America $8 trillion? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 22 Jul 2008 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.