Markets were mixed and downish Tuesday, but there was some good news to be found.

Housing starts and building permits soared, causing a big pop in shares to battered homebuilders. Whether this is a false start or a real jump, its hard to get anything but good news out of a housing market so beaten down.

On the industrial side, the Produce Price Index remained relatively stable, walking the narrow path between two evils -- deflation and inflation.

Oil prices have been steadily heading higher the past month, and today was no exception, as the precious crude managed to close today's trading at its highest value in 2009.

While we are still no where near the record high prices we were seeing last summer, oil has managed to slowly creep its way up to $54.58 a barrel. This was after a rise on the day of $1.73, and it is a clear sign that analysts believe that global demand is about to move in oil's favor.

If you already own the stock, Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) is a play that's likely to test the patience of most investors.

In general, analysts expect CAT to post lower earnings per share through the first half of 2009, then recover in the second half, as various international markets start to recover.

Good morning! A New York Times article reports that cheap booze is seeing a nice sale spike as folks swap out premium or even mid-market brands for rotgut. Popov & Tonic, anyone? The Prince of Darkness over at Zero Hedge illuminates us as to the possibility that a major supplier of financing to rural electrical cooperatives could go dark, taking down dozens of utilities in the sticks with it. Maverick ratings agency Egan Jones began calling this a while back.

Investing, like the politics that leads to U.S. public policy, is the art of the possible.

Conditions shift, windows of opportunity present themselves, even amid choppy seas. One such opportunity is presenting itself with Fluor (NYSE: FLR).

Fluor is a leading international design, engineering, and contracting firm with projects that include designing and building manufacturing facilities, refineries, pharmaceutical facilities, health care buildings, power plants and telecommunications and transportation infrastructure.

We all know the harsh reality of the tough economy we are in. We are dealing with a recession that no one can foresee ending at this point. This morning we got another hint at how bad things are with the release of 2008 construction figures, which showed construction spending in 2008 fell by a new record amount.

The Commerce Department released December construction figures today, which showed spending in December fell for the third month in a row, with a reported 1.4% decline during the month. This was a bit worse than the revised 1.2% decline that analysts had been expecting to see for the month. Previously, the November figure was showing a drop in spending of only 0.6%.

Oil prices flirted with the psychological $40 barrier today after a report from the U.S. government showed that inventories swelled much more than expected last week.

Going into today's weekly inventory report, analysts had been expecting to see in crude inventories of around 1.9 million barrels. While that would have been a bearish indicator in its own right, the actual figures were a much more bearish reality that U.S. demand is still not picking up as we would like, as actual oil inventories rose by a massive 6.1 million barrels for the week.

It's been a tough day all around for oil, as the market has been hit not only with today's bearish inventory report, but also news earlier in the day that new home construction in December hit an all time low, and that Asian economies have been extremely hard hit with recessions of their own.

U.S. housing starts decreased 6.3% in September -- the U.S. Commerce Department announced Friday, as builders attempted to reduce supply amid the nation's worst housing slump in more than a generation. (pdf)

Housing starts fell to an 817,000 annual rate in September, the U.S. Commerce Department announced. It was the lowest housing start pace in 17 years. (pdf)

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected housing starts to total an 880,000 annualized rate in September. Housing starts for August were revised lower to 872,000 from 895,000.

Over the past four months, housing starts have averaged a 932,000 annual pace, down from 973,000 for the four months ending in August.

Further, single family home starts fell 12% to a 544,000 annualized rate in September, their lowest level in 16 years.

Also, building permits declined 8.3% in September to a 786,000 annualized rate -- a 27-year low.

In addition, housing starts are down 31.1% in the past year, single-family starts are down 42%.

U.S. housing starts fell again in August, indicating that the worst housing slump in a generation will continue to weigh on the U.S. economy.

Starts of new homes declined 6.2% in August to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 895,000, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Wednesday. It was the lowest new home start rate in 17 years (pdf).

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected housing starts to total a 950,000 annualized rate in August.

Meanwhile, starts of single-family homes fell 1.9% to a 630,000 annualized rate.

Economist Glen Langan said the housing market remains "a terrible market if you're trying to sell a home, and still a risky market if you're thinking of buying a home."

"Conditions vary by region, but in general the U.S. housing market remains in a deep slump. Unless you absolutely have to or you find your 'dream house,' it makes sense to a wait a few months to see if the market stabilizes, mortgage availability factors being equal," Langan said. "In most regions of the U.S. home prices and sales are falling and that's why we're seeing a declining rate of new home starts by home builders."

Kudos to my colleague Elizabeth Harrow for pointing out that shares of Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) may be heading for a fall. As today's earnings report shows, her post was on the money.

Net income rose to $575.2 million, or $1.32 per share. Revenue soared 17% to $7.74 billion. Analysts had expected profit of $1.36 per share on revenue of $7.23 billion. Shares of the largest farm equipment maker had their biggest drop in two decades, according to Bloomberg.

What's killing Deere is rising raw material costs. The company's overall business is doing fine. Agricultural sales rose 35% in the quarter. Not surprisingly Commercial and Consumer revenue fell 1% and Construction and Forestry declined 7%.

The nearly always-on-the-mark Bloomberg News columnist Caroline Baum reminds investors/traders -- and potential home buyers -- that one should not jump into summer by jumping into a home purchase (if you can avoid it).

Baum notes that one has to view April's 6.3% increase in existing home sales in the proper context: housing has been down so much and for so long that every incremental pop up looks like a housing sector recovery. It isn't.

New and existing home sales peaked in July 2005 and September 2005, respectively, but housing starts didn't until January 2006. The result? A massive inventory build.

A record housing recession

Single-family starts are down 63% from their January 2006 peak, easily 'topping' peak-to-trough declines of 38% in 1973-75, and 57% in 1984-1991, and approaching the 65% slide in the housing recession of 1977-1981, Baum says.

Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) shares are falling today after the Commerce Department reported that May home construction fell 3.3%, signaling continued weakness in the housing market and bad news for home improvement stores. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on LOW.

After hitting a one-year high of $32.53 in September, the stock hit a one-year low of $19.94 in January. This morning, LOW opened at $24.15. So far today the stock has hit a low of $23.45 and a high of $24.23. As of 12:20, LOW is trading at $23.62, down $0.43 (-1.8%). The chart for LOW looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bear-call credit spread above the $27.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 13.6% return in four months as long as LOW is below $27.50 at October expiration. Lowe's would have to rise by more than 16% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Sure, there are several earnings reports coming that are going to shake, rattle, and roll, the market this week, including Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), but what about those all important economic releases? Last week, the consumer price index was revealed for May and showed a monthly increase of .6% as energy was HOT once again, and the overall transportation costs rose the most since November 2007. Core inflation was up only .2% and investors liked the number as it calls for the continuation of a "Fed-Pause," which helped the dollar move up for the week.

New Residential Construction (permits) popped last month on an unexpected increase of the multi-family housing starts. Think about it for a minute and you will quickly realize that as families are losing their homes due to the deteriorating economic conditions, they still need live somewhere. So, the increase of 326,000 permits for multi-family housing makes perfect sense. But, don't be fooled by the fact that these are still mixed into the totals and have skewed the overall stats upwards.

Still, the reports have shown difficult conditions as the total starts have hit lows last seen in 1991. Before that, the lows of this level were seen in 1974. Economists over at Economy.com are looking for housing starts to drop again in May down to 985 million. Since the economy has become the real story (aside from the oil horror show), housing is vitally important, as it is really a proxy for the financial fortitude of the average family. Realize that if they are not buying homes, it is because they don't have the funds, cannot get credit and do not have confidence in their financial future.

The U.S. housing sector has registered another ignominious statistic. Home prices in a 20-city sample plunged 14.4% in March 2008 (PDF), on a year-over-year basis, according to the S&P / Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price survey released Tuesday. Meanwhile, prices in a 10-city survey plummeted 15.3%.

It was the largest decline in the survey's 20-year history, Case-Shiller said.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected home prices in the Case-Shiller 20-city survey to decline 14.2% in March 2008 on a year-over-year basis.

The areas with the largest percentage declines were: Las Vegas, -25.9%; Miami, -24.6%, and Phoenix, -23.0%. Only one city in the survey -- Charlotte, N.C. -- appreciated, with prices there rising just a scant 0.8%.

Percentage price changes in other major U.S. cities were as follows: New York, -7.4%, Los Angeles, -21.7%, Chicago, -10.0%, Boston, -5.9%, San Francisco, -20.2%, Washington, D.C., -14.7%, Miami, -24.6%, and Seattle, -4.4%.

Economic Analysis: Another horrible U.S. housing sector statistic, and the sector remains in deep recession. Economists differ regarding whether the U.S. housing sector has bottomed: some see a housing recovery as early as Q4 2008, while others say it won't start until mid-2009. In either event, it's going to be a while before new home builders can resume typical building schedules and get out there and make some money -- a fact that suggests U.S. home prices are likely to continue to decline for at least the next two quarters, and probably longer.

The New York Times reports that more people are turning in criminals to pay their bills. Calls to tip lines are up as much as 44% since the first quarter of 2007. For example, calls are up 30% to the Southwest Florida Crime Stoppers hot line, up 44% to the San Antonio hot line, and up 25% or more to hotlines in Detroit, Omaha, and Beaufort County, N.C. Why? Tipsters tell operators they need the money for rent, light bills or baby formula. It sounds like 1984 to me.

What's the pay for a tip? It depends -- programs in most places pay $50 to $1,000 for tips that bring results. And in some counties there's a "gun bounty" if a weapon is recovered. In Sussex County, N.J., the average payment for a tip that results in an arrest is $400. With the median monthly income after tax of $838, this kind of money can make a big difference -- especially with gasoline prices up to $4 a gallon.

If you want to know where call volume is likely to increase the most, look to regions of the country with the highest foreclosure rates. That's where desperate tippers are eager for fast payment. For example, Lee County, Florida, offers quick payments -- within two weeks of the tip -- and it had the highest rate for home foreclosures in the U.S. in February and March. Its once-plentiful construction jobs have evaporated and people are calling in tips to make up for the lost income.