Kudos to my colleague Elizabeth Harrow for pointing out that shares of Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) may be heading for a fall. As today's earnings report shows, her post was on the money.

Net income rose to $575.2 million, or $1.32 per share. Revenue soared 17% to $7.74 billion. Analysts had expected profit of $1.36 per share on revenue of $7.23 billion. Shares of the largest farm equipment maker had their biggest drop in two decades, according to Bloomberg.

What's killing Deere is rising raw material costs. The company's overall business is doing fine. Agricultural sales rose 35% in the quarter. Not surprisingly Commercial and Consumer revenue fell 1% and Construction and Forestry declined 7%.

The nearly always-on-the-mark Bloomberg News columnist Caroline Baum reminds investors/traders -- and potential home buyers -- that one should not jump into summer by jumping into a home purchase (if you can avoid it).

Baum notes that one has to view April's 6.3% increase in existing home sales in the proper context: housing has been down so much and for so long that every incremental pop up looks like a housing sector recovery. It isn't.

New and existing home sales peaked in July 2005 and September 2005, respectively, but housing starts didn't until January 2006. The result? A massive inventory build.

A record housing recession

Single-family starts are down 63% from their January 2006 peak, easily 'topping' peak-to-trough declines of 38% in 1973-75, and 57% in 1984-1991, and approaching the 65% slide in the housing recession of 1977-1981, Baum says.

Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) shares are falling today after the Commerce Department reported that May home construction fell 3.3%, signaling continued weakness in the housing market and bad news for home improvement stores. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on LOW.

After hitting a one-year high of $32.53 in September, the stock hit a one-year low of $19.94 in January. This morning, LOW opened at $24.15. So far today the stock has hit a low of $23.45 and a high of $24.23. As of 12:20, LOW is trading at $23.62, down $0.43 (-1.8%). The chart for LOW looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bear-call credit spread above the $27.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 13.6% return in four months as long as LOW is below $27.50 at October expiration. Lowe's would have to rise by more than 16% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Sure, there are several earnings reports coming that are going to shake, rattle, and roll, the market this week, including Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), but what about those all important economic releases? Last week, the consumer price index was revealed for May and showed a monthly increase of .6% as energy was HOT once again, and the overall transportation costs rose the most since November 2007. Core inflation was up only .2% and investors liked the number as it calls for the continuation of a "Fed-Pause," which helped the dollar move up for the week.

New Residential Construction (permits) popped last month on an unexpected increase of the multi-family housing starts. Think about it for a minute and you will quickly realize that as families are losing their homes due to the deteriorating economic conditions, they still need live somewhere. So, the increase of 326,000 permits for multi-family housing makes perfect sense. But, don't be fooled by the fact that these are still mixed into the totals and have skewed the overall stats upwards.

Still, the reports have shown difficult conditions as the total starts have hit lows last seen in 1991. Before that, the lows of this level were seen in 1974. Economists over at Economy.com are looking for housing starts to drop again in May down to 985 million. Since the economy has become the real story (aside from the oil horror show), housing is vitally important, as it is really a proxy for the financial fortitude of the average family. Realize that if they are not buying homes, it is because they don't have the funds, cannot get credit and do not have confidence in their financial future.

The U.S. housing sector has registered another ignominious statistic. Home prices in a 20-city sample plunged 14.4% in March 2008 (PDF), on a year-over-year basis, according to the S&P / Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price survey released Tuesday. Meanwhile, prices in a 10-city survey plummeted 15.3%.

It was the largest decline in the survey's 20-year history, Case-Shiller said.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected home prices in the Case-Shiller 20-city survey to decline 14.2% in March 2008 on a year-over-year basis.

The areas with the largest percentage declines were: Las Vegas, -25.9%; Miami, -24.6%, and Phoenix, -23.0%. Only one city in the survey -- Charlotte, N.C. -- appreciated, with prices there rising just a scant 0.8%.

Percentage price changes in other major U.S. cities were as follows: New York, -7.4%, Los Angeles, -21.7%, Chicago, -10.0%, Boston, -5.9%, San Francisco, -20.2%, Washington, D.C., -14.7%, Miami, -24.6%, and Seattle, -4.4%.

Economic Analysis: Another horrible U.S. housing sector statistic, and the sector remains in deep recession. Economists differ regarding whether the U.S. housing sector has bottomed: some see a housing recovery as early as Q4 2008, while others say it won't start until mid-2009. In either event, it's going to be a while before new home builders can resume typical building schedules and get out there and make some money -- a fact that suggests U.S. home prices are likely to continue to decline for at least the next two quarters, and probably longer.

The New York Times reports that more people are turning in criminals to pay their bills. Calls to tip lines are up as much as 44% since the first quarter of 2007. For example, calls are up 30% to the Southwest Florida Crime Stoppers hot line, up 44% to the San Antonio hot line, and up 25% or more to hotlines in Detroit, Omaha, and Beaufort County, N.C. Why? Tipsters tell operators they need the money for rent, light bills or baby formula. It sounds like 1984 to me.

What's the pay for a tip? It depends -- programs in most places pay $50 to $1,000 for tips that bring results. And in some counties there's a "gun bounty" if a weapon is recovered. In Sussex County, N.J., the average payment for a tip that results in an arrest is $400. With the median monthly income after tax of $838, this kind of money can make a big difference -- especially with gasoline prices up to $4 a gallon.

If you want to know where call volume is likely to increase the most, look to regions of the country with the highest foreclosure rates. That's where desperate tippers are eager for fast payment. For example, Lee County, Florida, offers quick payments -- within two weeks of the tip -- and it had the highest rate for home foreclosures in the U.S. in February and March. Its once-plentiful construction jobs have evaporated and people are calling in tips to make up for the lost income.

Readers of this space know that my investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models that have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the aforementioned in mind, Caterpillar is worth a review.

Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) is the world's No. 1 manufacturer in earth moving equipment and a leader in construction/agricultural equipment.

In general, analysts see CAT's 2008 revenue increasing 7-10% on strong international growth; North American revenue is expected to be flat.

Analysts also like the fact that Caterpillar is well-positioned to secure new business in emerging market economies for construction, infrastructure and land development work.

Meanwhile, raw material / core component costs are expected to continue to rise, limiting margin growth. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for CAT are $6.02/$6.77.

A pair of economic reports today raise the question of whether the U.S. economy is experiencing negative growth this quarter. The Associated Press reports that construction spending fell to the lowest level in 14 years and that U.S. manufacturing contracted to its worst level in five years.

These reports don't look good for the economy, but the question is whether these reports mean we are in a recession. That's an open question because 70% of the U.S. GDP growth springs from consumer spending. That means that if consumers can keep finding a way to open their wallets -- or more realistically -- find new sources of debt, then they could offset the slowdown from manufacturing and construction.

The problem is that to the extent that manufacturing and construction slowdowns lead to layoffs of consumers, then there will be nothing to keep the economy from tumbling into a recession. So far, news of mass layoffs is not crowding the business headlines. But today's reports could mean that such announcements will become more frequent in the next several months.

Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Fluor is worth a review.

Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR) is one of the world's largest engineering, procurement, construction and maintenance companies. The company oversees construction projects for a large range of industrial sectors worldwide, primarily in its core strengths: designing and building manufacturing facilities, refineries, pharmaceutical facilities, healthcare buildings, power plants, and telecommunications and transportation infrastructure.

Analysts see 20-25% revenue growth for F2008, after likely 15-18% revenue growth in F2007, driven by strong demand for oil and natural gas projects.

Housing starts posted a small gain in January 2008, but remained near two-decade lows, a sign the nation's worst housing slump is far from over.

Housing starts increased 0.8% in January 2008 to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.01 million, in-line with the consensus estimate, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Wednesday. In December 2007, starts declined by a revised 14.8% to an annual rate of 1 million.

In January 2008, building permits declined 3.0%, single family housing starts fell 5.2%, and multi-unit housing starts plunged 22.3%.

Economist Steve Affinito told BloggingStocks Wednesday the January 2008 housing report still shows a housing sector in deep recession.

Democrat presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, today unveiled a new $210 billion federal spending plan that he says would create jobs in construction and environmental services.

The Obama proposal would invest money over 10 years in two programs, the largest of which would be a $150 billion effort to create 5 million "green collar" jobs to develop more-environmentally friendly energy sources.

The remaining $60 billion would fund a National Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank to rebuild the nation's highways, bridges, airports and other public facilities. Obama said the construction fund would create nearly 2 million jobs, many of them in construction directly - - a sector hard-hit by the housing sector's correction - - the nation's most severe housing slump in more than 20 years.

Rival Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-New York, called Obama's effort unoriginal. Neera Tanden, Clinton's policy director, said Obama was offering ideas Clinton proposed months ago. "Voters may ask themselves that if Senator Obama cannot produce his own ideas on the campaign trail, how will he solve new problems as president?" Tanden said in a memo e-mailed to reporters, The Associated Press reported.

Furthermore, the Republican National Committee, which seeks to portray Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal, included Obama's plan on its 'Obama Spend-O-Meter.' The Republicans assert that Obama's announced programs would add $850 billion in federal spending over four years, including health care, education, national service and foreign aid programs, among others. The RNC's web site did not break down the asserted total by year, but economist Steve Affinito told BloggingStocks Wednesday, assuming equal, annual appropriations of $212.5 billion, the total would not be an unreasonable nor an unwarranted outlay, from an economic standpoint, in his interpretation.

"I don't know where the RNC obtained its $850 billion total, but for the sake of argument, even it was $220 billion per year, that's fairly modest, given the services it includes, including universal health insurance," Affinito said. "Also, given the current state of the economy we may find we may need another $150-$200 billion economic stimulus this year, just to keep the economy growing. So in that regard, Sen. Obama's proposal is insinc with the times and a net positive for the U.S. economy."

Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. With the above in mind, Manitowoc is worth an evaluation.

Manitowoc (NYSE: MTW) is a diversified manufacturer of cranes, food service equipment, and marine vessels.

Analysts really like MTW's crane business, which in 2006 accounted for 76% of earnings and 81% of revenue. Analysts continue to see robust demand for MTW's cranes from Asia and Europe, particularly from emerging market countries in this regions.

Analysts also like MTW's food service business and marine division; the former is likely to see continued strong demand for refrigeration machines and equipment; the latter, adequate demand for commercial seafaring vessels. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for MTW are $3.41/$3.90.

Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Terex is worth an evaluation.

Terex Corporation (NYSE: TEX) manufactures equipment for use in the construction, infrastructure, and surface mining industries.

Analysts like TEX's international crane business, which should register strong revenue growth, due to the ongoing infrastructure boom in Asia and the Middle East. Analysts also see solid demand for material processing and mining equipment in the immediate years ahead.

The market's recent pullback has created several moderate-risk, bargain-basement-price stocks, and one worth an evaluation is Black & Decker.

The Black & Decker Corporation (NYSE: BDK) is a global manufacturer and marketer of power tools and accessories, hardware, home improvement products, and fastening systems.

Analysts expect BDK's recent restructuring to improve productivity and operating margins. In general, analysts are forecasting low-single-digit sales growth for 2008 and 2009, weighed down by the housing sector's doldrums.
Meanwhile, BDK's fastening/assembly unit business should improve somewhat, offsetting housing's likely sub-par performance, and register mid-single-digit sales growth. The Reuters FY 2008/FY 2009 EPS consensus estimates for BDK are $1.14 to $1.57.

A quick look at freight traffic via railroads indicates no surprising changes in our economic landscape. However, the numbers do reaffirm some interesting trends. Total rail freight volume for the fourth week of January 2008 was estimated at 32.4 billion ton-miles, a decrease of 1.2% from one year ago. Some of the decline is attributed to severe weather conditions early in the month, especially in the eastern states.

What bears special concern in the Association of American Railroads rail freight traffic report are the few categories of freight that are showing significant reductions in rail freight loading volume when compared to 2007. Coal coke, which is used mainly as an industrial fuel showed a major decline in loading volume of 36.8%. This could be due in part to a shifting away from hydrocarbon fuels. Lumber and wood products loadings declined by a significant 22.35%, which does not bode well for the construction and furnishing trades. Primary forest product loadings dropped by 19.9% which further indicates a slow start to the coming building season.