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Market Close: Confidence flat, gas up

The market spent the day as it has many a Friday in the summer: slowing going no where.

The University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment index showed a very modest increase in June up to 69, from 68.7 in May. The same survey showed that expectations for six months from now actually dropped.

Oil and gas prices still dominated the headlines. Oil still hovers around $72 and the average price of gas rose for the 45th consecutive day to $2.63. The has to rattle consumers who have precious little discretionary income as it is.

Continue reading Market Close: Confidence flat, gas up

The week in preview: The Beige Book and other mood gauges

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its next Beige Book report of economic conditions on Wednesday, offering perhaps the best glimpse yet whether the recession has bottomed in the United States. The Beige Book report in March suggested that, by most measures, the economy was continuing to deteriorate and that prospects for near-term improvement was poor. But the April report showed that the deterioration was beginning to slow in some regions. Also, the TIPP Economic Optimism Index is scheduled to be released Tuesday, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index comes out Friday. So by the end of the week, we could have a good gauge of the mood over the U.S. economy.

Continue reading The week in preview: The Beige Book and other mood gauges

The week in preview: Earnings winners, Geithner testimony, housing sales

As the calendar quarter winds down, let's take look at some of this coming week's biggest expected earnings gainers.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Memphis-based Fred's Inc. (NASDAQ: FRED) to report fourth-quarter earnings of $0.22 per share, 36.4% higher than a year ago, and revenue of $472.5 million, down 4.4%. For the full year, the forecast is for a profit of $0.66 per share on revenue of $1.8 billion, compared to $0.52 per share and $1.8 billion in the previous year. The discount retailer beat or met earnings estimates in the past three quarters. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 14.0%, which is better than the industry average and that of larger rival Walmart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and the forward PE ratio estimate is 15.0. In the third quarter, the company had more cash than debt. The consensus recommendation of analysts is to buy FRED. The share price has risen 2.7% since the beginning of the year to $11.05.

Continue reading The week in preview: Earnings winners, Geithner testimony, housing sales

Gloom and doom in emerging market countries

The international research company, Ipsos Global Public Affairs, conducted a survey to determine the sentiment in emerging market countries including China, India, and Russia. They found it to be deteriorating rapidly. Consumer optimism dropped to 31% in November compared with a year ago. The largest drops were in China and India, with China dropping to 46% from 90% 18 months ago, and India dropping to 65% from a previous 88%.

One big factor for the drop in sentiment has been the sharp drop in crude oil prices from $147 per barrel to under $40 per barrel. It had a strong psychological impact on emerging market economies and brought home the notion that they were not immune from the worldwide economic slowdown.

Ipsos also surveyed 22 Western developed countries and found that nearly 75% of people were cutting back on entertainment, vacations, and luxury items.

The week in preview: Pre-holiday reports

There's not a whole lot on the economic calendar this coming week, as Thursday is Christmas day. But things are not entirely silent either.

As this is Christmas card season, it's somehow appropriate that American Greetings Corp. (NYSE: AM) is scheduled to report fiscal third-quarter results. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the nation's number two producer of greeting cards to report earnings of $0.52 per share, essentially the same as a year ago. Estimated revenue for the quarter is $474.5 million, down 2.3% from a year ago. American Greetings missed analysts' estimates in three of the past four quarters -- by 55.4% in the first quarter. After falling to a multiyear low of $7.85 per share in late November, the price closed Friday at $9.92. But the share price is 53.8% lower than a year ago.

Drugstore chain Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG), where one may find American Greetings cards, is expected to also report earnings the same as a year ago, or $0.46 per share, on revenue of $15.1 billion (+7.5%). Walgreen reported a modest increase in sales in October and again in November. The company only missed profit estimates in one of the past four quarters, and that by only a penny. The consensus recommendation remains to buy WAG, which has a long-term EPS growth rate forecast of 12.5%, better than the S&P 500 but less than that of rival CVS Caremark Corp. (NYSE: CVS). Walgreen's share price has been creeping upward since reaching a multiyear low of $21.28 in October and closed Friday at $26.08. (For more on Walgreen, see Steven Mallas's earnings preview.)

Continue reading The week in preview: Pre-holiday reports

The end of big credit card balances

Getting a bank card with a big line of credit used to be as easy as pie. Make an application and get 25% of your annual income as a line. Then spend, spend, spend. Who cares that the annual interest rate might be 18%? Use that home equity loan to pay off the card balance. It is still debt, but your home value is rising.

It looks like that whole cycle is over and that banks are going to sharply cut credit card availability to consumers. That, of course, will hurt retail sales and the nation's GDP.

According to Reuters, "The U.S. credit card industry may pull back well over $2 trillion of lines over the next 18 months due to risk aversion and regulatory changes, leading to sharp declines in consumer spending, prominent banking analyst Meredith Whitney said."

Credit card caps could go so low that the overall access to capital using them may drop 45%.

The prediction shows the extent to which banks are now at odds with almost every other business in America. Financial firms have to keep capital to prevent raising money if they face more losses. Retailers and other business which rely on consumers to borrow need the banks to extend money to consumers to keep their buying power up.

Consumer credit provided by banks drove American economic expansion over the last five years. It is ironic that they are helping to kill it.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Home buyers may crush the economy

It would seem to be stating the obvious, but the habits of home buyers will probably hold the key to whether the economy will go into its deepest recession in decades. That is the prevailing wisdom, but is it right?

According to Reuters, "a sharper housing bust would leave deep scars in consumer sentiment, which would likely lead to a deep recession." Some economists and real estate experts see home prices falling another 15% to 20% from current levels.

Real estate may be a critical part of an economic recovery, but it is not the only one. Oil and commodities recently had their sharpest correction in years. If oil moves below $100 and the price of agricultural products moves down substantially, the implied cost of living for most Americans will get much better. Under those circumstances, homeowners have more money to pay mortgages.

Wages could also rise. Recent pressure on consumer prices makes it more likely that unions and employees will press for higher compensation. In many cases, they will be turned away. But, worker demands for higher pay spread across the entire economy should yield some improvements in how much people take home.

Housing prices are important, but they are not the only game in town.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

U.S. consumer sentiment remains near 28-year lows on declining home prices, tepid job market

U.S. consumer confidence in July remained near 28-year lows, an indication American adults continue to be concerned about rising energy and food prices, job layoffs, and the prospects for a U.S. economic recovery.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its reading of confidence rose just slightly to to 56.6 in July, from 56.4 in June. The index stood at 59.8 in May, 62.8 in April, and 69.5 in March, Reuters reported Friday.

The July reading was a scant rise and hardly a positive data point for the economy, given that June's reading was the index's lowest since May 1980 -- a period also characterized by high oil/gasoline prices and a sluggish U.S. economy.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had predicted that the May index would fall to 56.0.

Americans 'guarded and concerned' about economy

Economist Peter Dawson told BloggingStocks Friday July's consumer sentiment reading did nothing to shift his evaluation regarding the American people's stance toward the U.S. economy.

"The public remains guarded and concerned, with little optimism, save for a few, fortunate income and wealth segments. We have the most serious economic downturn in a decade, from the stand point of the typical person or employee. Consumers are seeing gasoline and food prices rise by the week, and they're concerned about job losses," Dawson said. "When you combine job worries with price rises just about everywhere you look, with a housing sector that shows little signs of recovery, and the lower home values that trend implies, it doesn't breed consumer confidence, so it's not surprising the [University of] Michigan survey reading is near its lowest point in decades."

Continue reading U.S. consumer sentiment remains near 28-year lows on declining home prices, tepid job market

May consumer sentiment drops to 28-year low on falling home prices, tepid job market

U.S. consumer confidence in May 2008 plunged to its lowest level in almost 28 years, an indication American adults are very concerned about the near-term health of the U.S. economy as it slides into its first recession in six years.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its index of confidence fell to 59.5 in May 2008, Reuters reported Friday.

It was the index's lowest reading since June 1980 -- a period also characterized by high oil/gasoline prices and a sluggish U.S. economy.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had predicted that the April 2008 index would fall to 62.5. The index stood at 63.2 in April 2008 and 69.5 in March 2008.

'An awful number'

Economist Peter Dawson told BloggingStocks Friday May's consumer sentiment reading reflects conditions on the ground. "It's an awful number, but it reflects conditions on Main Street, as the typical person experiences them," Dawson said. "We've got falling home prices, record-high gas prices, rising food prices, property taxes increasing in many areas, and no job growth. It's not a happy time for Americans right now and the University of Michigan sentiment numbers reflect that."

Continue reading May consumer sentiment drops to 28-year low on falling home prices, tepid job market

Consumer sentiment as a contrarian indicator: Time to buy stocks?

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers shows consumer sentiment at a 26-year low: "The April result is the lowest since March 1982's level of 62.0., when the "stagflationary" period of low growth and high inflation was still an issue for many Americans."

But is that a bad thing? A quick look at history shows that it probably isn't. The last time consumer sentiment was this low was right before the beginning of the longest bull-run in history. The best book on that era is called Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust: 1982-2004. The chart below of the Dow Jones Industrial Average performance during 1980-2000 pretty much tells the story. See the little divot on the far left side? Yeah, that was 1982.

So don't get too depressed about consumer weakness. The last time things looked this bad, they ended up working out better than ever. And anyone who sold on the scary headlines regretted it very quickly.

Consumer sentiment drops to 26-year low in April

U.S. consumer confidence in April 2008 plunged to its lowest level in 26 years, suggesting American adults are becoming more concerned about the near-term health of the U.S. economy as it slides into its first recession in six years.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its index of confidence fell to 62.6 in April 2008 from 69.5 in March 2008, and 70.8 in February 2008, Reuters reported Friday. Last year the index averaged 85.6.

It was the index's lowest reading since March 1982's 62.0, which also was a recession year for the U.S. economy.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had predicted that the April 2008 index would fall to 63.2.

'A great deal of concern'

Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks Friday the April 2008 consumer sentiment index is a decidedly negative reading. "It indicates concern about the slowdown has permeated the public. Negative sentiment is working its way through the real economy. Consumers are expressing a great deal of concern about high gasoline, oil and food prices, the job situation, and the uncertain economic landscape," Langan said. "It's a real harbinger because consumer activity is key to U.S. economic growth, accounting for about 65% of GDP."

Langan said the United States is almost certainly in recession. "If the nation isn't in a recession, we'll record nil growth, maybe 0.2% or 0.3%, in the first quarter," he said.

Langan added that there's a 50-60% chance the U.S. will remain in recession after Q2 2008.

April consumer sentiment drops to 26-year low on high gas prices, job market concerns

U.S. consumer confidence in early April 2008 plunged to its lowest level in 26 years, suggesting American adults are becoming more concerned about the near-term health of the U.S. economy as it slides into its first recession in six years.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its preliminary index of confidence fell to 63.2 in April 2008 from 69.5 in March 2008. It was the index's lowest reading since it fell to 62.0 in March 1982.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had predicted that the April 2008 index would fall to 69.

Meanwhile, the index of consumer expectations for six months from now, which more closely projects the direction of consumer spending, fell to 53.4 in April 2008 from 60.1 in March 2008. It was the expectations index's lowest reading since November 1990, Reuters reported Friday.

'A really bad number'

Economist Peter Dawson, who did not participate in the survey, told BloggingStocks Friday there's no way to sugarcoat the latest consumer sentiment reading. "It's a really bad number. Just awful. Consumers are expressing serious concern about high gasoline, oil and food prices, the threat of job layoffs, and the general the state of the economy," Dawson said. "Given that consumer spending a represents about two-thirds of economic activity, it doesn't bode well for the economic recovery timetable."

With the above in mind, Dawson said those who expect a U.S. economic recovery to start as early as Q3 2008 "are at the extremely optimistic end of the recovery spectrum."

March consumer sentiment index falls to 69.5, with respondents expecting recession

U.S. consumer sentiment fell to 69.5 in March 2008 from 70.8 in February 2008, as measured by the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. (pdf)

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the index to fall to 70.0 in March 2008.

Meanwhile, the current conditions index rose to 84.2 from 83.8 in February 2008. The expectations index declined to 60.1 from 62.4.

The most recent survey found that consumers were nearly unanimous in the opinion that the economy had already slipped into a recession, Reuters/University of Michigan survey research indicated. Consumers have adopted much more cautious spending plans, shifting more toward repaying debts and rebuilding their savings, the research indicated.

Further, a recession has occurred whenever the sentiment index declined as much as it has fallen during the past year, according to Richard Curtin, Director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Economic Analysis: Economists tend to place less emphasis on the sentiment barometers, preferring to emphasize the 'iron and steel data' of U.S. economy metrics: production, corporate profits, housing starts, job growth, etc., which provide more-tangible indicators of economic activity. That said, the latest Reuters/UMich. consumer sentiment data is not on a positive track. Consumers, weighed down by rising gasoline and heating oil prices, the housing slump, and sluggish job growth, are understandably downbeat about the economy and its immediate prospects.

Consumer confidence falls to 70.5 in March, a 16-year low

U.S. consumer confidence fell to a 16-year low in March 2008, as inflation and recession concerns continued to weigh on consumers, the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers announced Friday.

The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 70.5 in March 2008 (preliminary statistic) from 70.8 in February 2008. It's the lowest reading for the index since February 1992.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the index to decline to 69.5.

The expectations index, which some economists and analysts say is a lead indicator regarding future consumer spending, fell to 61.4 in March 2008 from 62.4 in February 2008.

Also, consumers surveyed said they expect inflation to run at a 4.5% annualized rate in 2008, compared to a 3.6% annualized rate projected in February 2008.

Economic Analysis: The key dimension of the March 2008 Reuters/UMich. survey is the 16-year low for the sentiment index. Rising energy prices, news of continued stress in credit markets, the housing market's decline, and low/negative job growth are all weighing on consumers, and the survey data reflect the above. The reading also suggests big-ticket retail sales -- an important component of U.S. economic activity -- may have a tough time recovering in the immediate months ahead, as consumers typically delay/cancel purchases of big-ticket items during periods of low consumer confidence.

Consumer sentiment falls to 70.8 in February, according to U. Michigan survey

The Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers final February 2008 consumer sentiment index fell to 70.8 from the January 2008 final reading of 78.4, Reuters reported Friday.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected the index to decline to 70.0.

The consumer sentiment index has dropped about 10 points since its 80.9 level in October 2007.

The current conditions index fell to 83.8 in February 2008 from 94.4 in January 2008, while the expectations index fell to 62.4 from 68.1.

Meanwhile, 1-year inflation expectation increased to 3.6% in February 2008 from 3.4%, while the 5-year inflation expectation remained unchanged at 3.0%.

Economic Analysis: The February 2008 statistic -- the sentiment index's third decline in the past four months -- indicates U.S. consumers continue to be concerned about the U.S. economy. Almost as important as real income gains and wealth gains, consumer sentiment is a telling statistic because sentiment, or consumer bullishness/bearishness, frequently precedes an increase/decrease in spending. Further, while the relationship between confidence and spending is not perfect, continued declines/increases in consumer sentiment over several months is viewed as an accurate gauge concerning whether they believe economic conditions are improving or deteriorating.

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Last updated: May 28, 2012: 06:28 AM

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