Feel like a nice cup of decaf right about now? Don't plan on getting it at Starbucks. Popular blogger (and newspaper doomsayer) Jeff Jarvis is complaining about a new but not well publicized Starbucks policy to stop brewing fresh decaf coffee after the morning rush.

It's no secret that financial and consumer stocks have been slammed this year. Since January, the S&P financial sector has shed 21.3% while the S&P consumer discretionary sector has lost 14.2%. That compares to a 2.2% gain in the S&P 500 index.

While it is likely far too early to call for a bottom in either group, a quick read of the technical relationship between the two sectors going back several years suggests it might nonetheless be time to bet on banks, brokers, and other financials while wagering on further weakness in the shares of companies that are most exposed to a slowdown in personal spending.

Arguably, this particular pairs-trade probably jibes with how traders are positioned and the near-term fundamental outlook. Right now, many people are afraid of what bombshell might hit the financial sector next. Yet as far as the economy goes, the majority of central bankers, analysts, and various Polyannas still seem to be expecting -- hoping -- that any slowdown we see will be mild, at worst.

In sentiment terms, at least, that suggests the former group has a decent amount of bad news priced in. In contrast, shares in the latter group could be vulnerable to downside surprises, especially given that we are now in the midst of the crucial holiday selling season.

One way to play it (depending on risk): buy the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (AMEX: XLF) and sell (sell-short) the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (AMEX: XLY).

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle.

In "GDP data adds to negative outlook for stocks," I noted that various measures are signaling that a recession is imminent and that it would be bad for stocks, at least in the short run.

Under the circumstances, one course of action is to eliminate or reduce exposure to equities to minimize the risk of loss. For investors who must or prefer to remain invested, the best strategy is to avoid vulnerable sectors and favor those characterized as "defensive."

Based on what happened during the last two recessions, in 1990 and 2001, the two sectors that would best serve as safe havens during an economic storm are Consumer Staples (which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, or ETF (AMEX: XLP) and Health Care (AMEX: XLV) . Both ended up in the black six months after those downturns began, in contrast to the overall market.