The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets again this week to review economic conditions and set monetary policy. On whether the Fed should end quantitative easing or extend it, Atlanta Fed chairman Dennis Lockhart recently said that the Fed should remain flexible given the rising energy prices, which could be a sign of coming inflation. Either at this meeting or the next, the Fed could signal that interest rates will rise as a hedge against inflation.

Inflation will also be the focus when the Department of Labor releases the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) this week. Back in January the core PPI (which excludes energy and food costs) had its biggest jump in two years, and the core CPI had its largest uptick in more than year, the second month in a row in which consumer prices jumped.

Continue reading Week in Preview: Inflation, the FOMC and Nike Earnings

Week in Preview: Inflation, the FOMC and Nike Earnings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 13 Mar 2011 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

U.S. stock futures are slightly lower this morning, as investors await data on jobless claims and consumer prices. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2 points to 12,250, while S&P 500 futures dropped 0.90 point to 1,332. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.50 points to 2,391.

European markets were mixed today. STOXX Europe 600 Index has gained 0.07%, while London's FTSE 100 Index moved down 0.09%.

Asian markets ended higher, with Japan's Nikkei Stock Average gaining 0.26%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 moving up 0.15% and China's Shanghai Composite gaining 0.11%.

Continue reading U.S. Futures Down Slightly as Investors Await Jobless Claims

U.S. Futures Down Slightly as Investors Await Jobless Claims originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 17 Feb 2011 08:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Has the U.S. Federal Reserve's tone regarding its stance toward its asset purchase program(quantitative easing part 2, or QE2), changed?

From the recent comments of Federal Open Market Committee members, it's tough to detect a shift.

For investors, the Fed's QE2 tone is hardly insignificant. A Fed signal that an unwinding of asset purchases is likely before June would affect U.S GDP growth expectations, and, by extension, corporate revenue expectations of many firms for the second half of 2011.

Continue reading Fed's Recent Tone on QE2: Does It Change the Investment Climate?

Fed's Recent Tone on QE2: Does It Change the Investment Climate? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 12 Jan 2011 15:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Alcoa (AA), Intel (INTC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) will kick off a new earnings season this week when they report their results for the fourth quarter of 2010. Here's a quick look at what analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect to see, followed by a glance at what's coming up on the economic calendar.

Alcoa

During its fourth quarter, Alcoa saw increased demand in emerging markets, sold surplus properties, and shared revenue targets with investors. Analysts forecast that earnings for the period will come to 19 cents per share, up from just a penny per share in the same quarter of last year. The New York-based aluminum producer also is expected to post revenue of $5.7 billion for the three months that ended in December, which is 4.5% more than a year earlier.

Continue reading Week in Preview: Alcoa, Intel, JPMorgan Kick Off New Earnings Season

Week in Preview: Alcoa, Intel, JPMorgan Kick Off New Earnings Season originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 09 Jan 2011 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

FedEx Corp. (FDX), the world's leading package delivery service and an ostensible bellwether of the U.S. economy, will dance its way onto the earnings stage this week. Also, with the holiday shopping season well underway, Best Buy Co. (BBY) and Discover Financial Services (DFS) are scheduled to offer up their most recent quarterly results.

Here's a closer look at what the analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are expecting from these three, plus a peek at the week's economic calendar.

Continue reading Week in Preview: FedEx, Best Buy, Discover to Deliver Earnings

Week in Preview: FedEx, Best Buy, Discover to Deliver Earnings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 12 Dec 2010 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Last week, Macy's (M) and JCPenney (JCP) kicked off the retail earnings season by posting better-than-expected earnings for the most recent quarter. Many more quarterly reports from retailers are due this week, and by and large expectations of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are high.

Walmart (WMT), the king of retailers, is expected to buck the trend, though. Analysts anticipate that the Bentonville-based company will report that its third-quarter earnings grew only 6.7% year-over-year to 90 cents per share. During the three months that ended in October, Walmart announced an acquisition in South Africa and kicked-off the holiday shopping season, and revenue for that period is predicted to have risen 3.0% to $102.4 billion. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, analysts so far expect sequential and year-over-year growth of both earnings and revenue. Walmart results have not fallen short of consensus estimates in the past five quarters.

Continue reading Week in Preview: Retailers Offer Up Earnings (WMT, ANF, LOW, TGT)

Week in Preview: Retailers Offer Up Earnings (WMT, ANF, LOW, TGT) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 14 Nov 2010 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The earnings season kicked off last week with better-than-expected results from Alcoa (AA) and Yum! Brands (YUM), while Marriott (MAR) and Pepsico (PEP) met consensus EPS estimates. This week, bellwether companies Intel (INTC), General Electric (GE), Google (GOOG) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) are scheduled to report their third-quarter results, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are looking for earnings growth from all of them.

Santa Clara, Calif.-based Intel announced the acquisition of McAfee and joint ventures with General Electric and Nokia (NOK) during its third quarter. Analysts forecast earnings for that period to come to 50 cents per share, which is up 34.0% from the same period of last year. The number one semiconductor maker's revenue for the three months ended in September is expected to total $11.0 billion, or 17.1% more than a year earlier. Looking ahead to the full year, the forecast thus far is for earnings of $1.94 per share (+44.8%) and $43.3 billion in revenue (+23.4%). The per-share earnings topped analysts' expectations in the past four quarters, by as much as a dime per share.

Continue reading Week in Preview: Earnings Expectations for Intel, GE, Google and JPMorgan

Week in Preview: Earnings Expectations for Intel, GE, Google and JPMorgan originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 10 Oct 2010 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Last week, the Fed's Beige Book report confirmed that the economy continues to grow, but at a slower pace than in previous periods. This week will bring plenty of economic data to either support or contrast with the Fed's findings.

• Monday: Federal government budget balance for August
• Tuesday: Business inventory numbers from July, TIPP Economic Optimism Index for September, retail sales data from August
• Wednesday: Industrial production in August, Empire State Manufacturing Survey for September, Import Price Index for August
• Thursday: Producer Price Index for August, Philly Fed Survey for September, the Current Account Balance in the second quarter, jobless claims for last week
• Friday: preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Consumer Price Index for August, real earnings data for August

Continue reading The Week in Preview: FedEx, Best Buy, Oracle and Lots of Economic Data

The Week in Preview: FedEx, Best Buy, Oracle and Lots of Economic Data originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 12 Sep 2010 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Consumer Prices Slip During April

Consumer Prices Slip During April originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 19 May 2010 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Is Inflation Threat on The Horizon?

Is Inflation Threat on The Horizon? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 18 May 2010 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The most compelling statistic, so far in 2010, from an investment standpoint? Arguably, it's inflation, or the lack thereof.

More than 12 months in to the biggest fiscal stimulus in the history of the modern world, and more than 15 months into the Fed's quantitative easing program, inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is running at ... about 2.3% since April 2009, according to data compiled by the U.S. Labor Department. Further, take away the volatile food and energy component, and inflation at the retail level is running at a minuscule 1.1% since April 2009.

Continue reading Despite March's PPI Jump, U.S. Inflation Remains Tame

Despite March's PPI Jump, U.S. Inflation Remains Tame originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 22 Apr 2010 12:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Best Buy Inc. (BBY), which was a favorite on Black Friday, announced a partnership with Netflix (NFLX) and another one with Google (GOOG), as well as declared a quarterly dividend, during its fiscal third quarter. For the three months that ended in November, Best Buy is expected to report that earnings rose 18.6% from a year ago to $0.43 per share. Revenue is expected to total $11.9 billion, or 4.2% higher than a year ago. The full-year forecast is for a profit of $2.95 per share (+2.4%) on $48.6 billion (+7.8%) in sales. This Richfield, Minn.-based company has topped earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters, by as much as 21 cents per share.

Best Buy's long-term EPS growth forecast of 12.5% is better than that of Walmart (WMT). Best Buy's earnings multiple is 14x. Analysts, on average, recommend buying BBY and have for more than 90 days; two analysts recently raised their earnings estimates. The mean price target is $44.77. Shares have risen 11.5% in the past three months and recently reached a new 52-week high of $44.50.

Continue reading The week in preview: Best Buy, General Mills, Oracle and more earnings expectations

The week in preview: Best Buy, General Mills, Oracle and more earnings expectations originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 13 Dec 2009 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The U.S. housing market continued to show weakness in the latest reading. Here are the Commerce Department's latest numbers:

• Housing starts dropped 10.5% to 529,000 units. The expected number was 600,000.
• Groundbreaking for single family homes fell 6.8% last month to an annual rate of 476,000 units.
• Starts for multifamily homes fell sharply to a 53,000 annual pace, a drop of 34.6%.
• Compared to October last year, housing starts fell 30.7%.

Continue reading U.S. housing starts fall sharply in October as inflation rises

U.S. housing starts fall sharply in October as inflation rises originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 18 Nov 2009 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

What could complicate the U.S. Federal Reserve's job to boost the economy? The price of oil. That's correct: the price of crude -- the world's most important commodity.

The reason? The impact of a high price of oil on prices throughout the U.S. economy.

Continue reading Rising oil prices could make the Fed's inflation-fighting job tougher

Rising oil prices could make the Fed's inflation-fighting job tougher originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 15 Oct 2009 13:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Which is more likely in 2010: Deflation or inflation?

Which is more likely in 2010: Deflation or inflation? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 07 Oct 2009 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Hotel room rates slump in the first half of 2009

Hotel room rates slump in the first half of 2009 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 16 Sep 2009 10:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

John Crudele over at The New York Post writes about yet another hidden consequence of the Cash For Clunkers program: "... the folks at the US Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed to me that the subsidy received by those 800,000 car buyers will be handled in the CPI next week as if the price of a car fell by $4,500."

Let's be very clear: This is one of the dumbest things in the history of the United States.

How the hell can you possibly count a taxpayer-funded subsidy as free money and use it to show that the cost of cars fell?

Continue reading How Cash for Clunkers will screw up the CPI

How Cash for Clunkers will screw up the CPI originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 11 Sep 2009 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve's FOMC holds two-day meeting on interest rates and will announce its decision on Wednesday. The Fed's Ben Bernanke will still be out and about this week, discussing the failure of Lehman Brothers later today, and ending up the week speaking at the Independent Community Bankers of America National Convention and Techworld.

Manufacturing will be in focus this week, starting with industrial production numbers for February and the Empire State Manufacturing Survey Diffusion Index for March scheduled to be released Monday morning. Tuesday morning will bring us the Producer Price Index for February, and Thursday morning comes the Philadelphia Fed Outlook Survey -- Diffusion Index Manufacturing for March.

Continue reading The week in preview: Interest rates, manufacturing, earnings gainers

The week in preview: Interest rates, manufacturing, earnings gainers originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 15 Mar 2009 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

We live in the craziest, upside down world you can imagine. In years past at rise in consumer prices threw the markets into a panic, signaling that inflation was rising a getting out of control. But that was then and this is now.

Today the Labor Department said that the consumer price index rose .3% after dropping .8% in December. Voila! The inflation news is now good news. Why is inflation good news? It is good news because it means that we are not deflating. Even Bernake said that we simply cannot have deflation. He stated an inflation goal of 1.5% to 2% for the coming years. You see in this upside world, deflation is when prices fall, and since we don't want that, we now love it when prices rise -- that's inflation.

Continue reading Is it inflation or deflation?

Is it inflation or deflation? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 20 Feb 2009 17:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Among all the negative economic data that came out last week was a positive surprise: retail sales were higher in January. A fluke or a glimmer at the end of the tunnel? That may depend on whether we see any positive surprises arising from items on this week's economic calendar:

• Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference: Monday through Friday
• NY Empire Manufacturing Index (Feb. 2009): Tuesday, 8:30 AM
• NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb. 2009): Tuesday, 1:00 PM
• Fed's Bullard speaks before National Association of Business Economists: Tuesday, 1:00 PM
• Housing starts (Jan. 2009): Wednesday, 8:30 AM
• Fed's Pianalto speaks before Commercial Developers Power Breakfast: Wednesday, 9:00 AM
• Industrial production (Jan. 2009): Wednesday, 9:15 AM
• Fed's Bernanke speaks before National Press Club Luncheon: Wednesday, 12:30 PM

Continue reading The week in preview: A glimmer at the end of the tunnel?

The week in preview: A glimmer at the end of the tunnel? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 15 Feb 2009 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.