It's been brewing ever so slowly, but AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) has finally been able to show the results of its efforts. Shares of AnnTaylor soared about 13% today after the women's apparel chain raised its first-quarter earnings forecast.

The company said that better-than-expected results at its LOFT stores as well as lower inventories and better expense management overall contributed to the results. Yes, surprising investors is always good, but it's also always good to remain a little cautious with such news. The company itself warned about the rest of the year, leaving its full-year forecast unchanged.

Of course, the question is what's ahead for AnnTaylor. One answer already came today from the company when it said it would shelve a new store concept targeting baby boomers. But following the success of LOFT, the retailer is aggressively launching an outlet version of the brand. Is it smart? It certainly seems that in the current economic climate increasing lower-priced offerings would allow AnnTaylor to keep cash-strapped customers while offering them budget clothes in a familiar brand.

Credit cards ... the little plastic cards in your wallet that are so convenient to rely on when you are strapped for cash. While the convenience of having cards definitely makes it easier to buy items when you are running low on cash, the flip side is that credit card debt can drown the typical household, and statistics are showing that Americans are pulling out their cards more than before.

One of the reasons why credit card usage has been on the rise is the fact that homeowners are having a harder time using home equity to get a cash infusion into their accounts. As a result, they are looking to borrow money from somewhere, and more times than not, they are turning to credit cards.

The evil with credit cards is that once you start to use them to pay for your basic necessities like food and gas, you find that in the months to come you still can't afford your basic needs but in addition, your monthly bills are racking up like crazy due to your credit card expenses. It's a scary cycle that many families find themselves trapped in.

Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) recently said that it would scale back its plans for opening new locations in the U.S. in 2008 and for the next few years, citing a "squeeze-play on consumers." Instead of the announced 90 new stores this year, Kohl's now expects to open 70 to 75 new stores this year. The retailer is still on track to open its 1,000th store later in 2008, however.

Although the "mall store outside the mall" has identified about 400 sites for potential locations in the near future, it said that kind of expansion may not happen until 2014. Last year, the retailer opened 112 stores nationwide, ending up with a total of 943 stores total in 57 states.

Kohl's is right when it said that its customers are "under a lot of pressure" due to higher fuel, grocery and health care costs. The good news, from what I have seen in the past, is that Kohl's has very low prices for much of its "Croft & Barrow" apparel items, its private-label brand. If it can fight the good fight with Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) in terms of prices and clothing selection, it may yet have decent sales on those items as expensive housewares and related items sink this year.

Consumer spending increased 0.4%, but rose just a scant 0.1% after adjusting for inflation, in March 2008, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Thursday, as higher prices eroded income gains for Americans.

Further, it was the fourth straight month of sub-par real consumer demand.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected March 2008 consumer spending to increase 0.3%.

Meanwhile, inflation accelerated in March 2008, with consumer prices increasing 0.3%. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, also increased just 0.2%. For the past 12 months, consumer prices have increased 3.2%, while the core rate has increased 2.1%, or just above the U.S. Federal Reserve's inflation ceiling, commonly referred to as the Fed's 'comfort zone.'

Consumers these days are so lacking in confidence that all the therapy in the world probably couldn't help them. The housing market is in a tailspin, commodities are soaring and gas prices are nearing $4 a gallon. It is against this backdrop that Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) reported better-than-expected first quarter results.

Profit rose to $2.71 billion, or 82 cents per share, compared with $2.51 billion, or 74 cents per share, a year ago. Revenue rose 9% to $20.46 billion from $18.69 billion last year. The Cincinnati-based company was expected to earn 81 cents on revenue of $21.44 billion, according to Thomson Financial.

"P&G delivered strong results in-line with long-term targets in a challenging economic and competitive environment with broad-based sales and share growth, earnings growth and overhead cost improvement," said Chief Executive AG Lafley in the earnings release.

Shares of the maker of Tide (my favorite detergent) and Pampers (our family's preferred diaper for my son) have slumped more than 10% this year under-performing rivals including Church & Dwight Co. (NYSE: CHD) and Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL). Uniliver Plc. (NYSE: UL) has fared slightly worse than P&G.

Surveys show that gasoline prices are starting to weigh on consumers' psyches, as well as their budgets, but will the recent price surge propel permanent transportation changes in the nation?

Economist Glen Langan thinks it will, with the pivotal level being prices well over $3 per gallon gasoline. Initially, economists thought the $3 per gallon threshold would compel consumers to cut back consumption, Langan said. This didn't occur, despite gasoline's six to nine month long plateau over $3. A few months and 50-60 cents later, consumers have cut back, and Langan says the permanence of gasoline's stratospheric level is the reason.

Gasoline price psychology

"The cutback is a combination of the old and the new price, but it's mostly a reaction to the old $3 gasoline. Consumers would have cut back then, but they didn't because they concluded that it was temporary, a summer price," Langan said. "But after prices didn't drop and continued to increase early this year, well before the new summer driving season, consumers have concluded that the $3 or higher price for gasoline is here to stay, so they're cutting back accordingly. From a budget standpoint, they're making the right choice."

Economic forecasters and analysts are beginning to give in to recession language, with 51% of respondents to a poll conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) indicating they believe that a stalled economy is where we may be headed. An Associated Press report indicates that 70% of all survey respondents feel the economy shall grow 3% or less in the first half of this year. A whopping 30% of respondents indicated they feel the economy shall actually contract.

Associated Press stated, "The majority of forecasters polled -- 51 percent -- thought the economic growth during the first half of this year would clock in between zero and 1 percent, which would still mark a feeble showing. Sixteen percent pegged growth in the first half at between 1 and 2 percent, while only three percent put it at between 2 and 3 percent."

The question is whether or not consumers and their discretionary incomes shall tip the economic balance into classically defined recession. While inflation has a greater portion of personal incomes being utilized for the necessities of life, these days it's generally the optional "extras" that stimulate economic growth numbers. Recreational electronics, home entertainment devices, and items of fad and fashion make up the bulk of growth industries today. To what extent will they bear up and in what measure will they support domestic economy?

Your guess is as good as mine...

Gary Sattler is a freelance blogger and former sole proprietor of a thriving retail establishment.

With the U.S. economy growing at an anemic rate (if it isn't already in a recession), investors should, in general, avoid the retail sector.

Still, there are those isolated companies, which, via either niche or operational execution, qualify as an exception, and with the above in mind Target is worth a review.

Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) should post adequate FY 2009 same store sales growth, aided by refinements to its electronics, apparel, and home furnishings offerings, with a continued focus on value.

With recession fears, housing market worries and high gasoline prices, retailers have been facing tough times and so have luxury car dealers. March proved another tough month for carmakers, with overall U.S. sales declining after the weakening economy put a curb on consumer spending.

Amid the challenging market conditions, even the rich are joining the general anxiety. With the dollar losing ground each day it is difficult to know how much your savings are valued at any more. Then, a simple question appears "Can I afford to buy a luxury car?" It seems like not too many gave a positive answer as most luxury car brands faced sales declines last month.

Sales for BMW fell 8.7%, while Lexus saw a plunge in sales of 13.6%. And even Mercedes-Benz was down nearly 4 percent. Overall luxury vehicle sales fell almost 13% compared with the same month last year, according to Autodata.

Despite the fact that Ruby Tuesday Incoroprated (NYSE: RT) serves up a mean burger, consumers continue to sit at home digesting more and more negative economic news. The company recently released third quarter (3Q) 2008 earnings that take away the appetite. 3Q 2008 net income was $11.7 million or $0.23 EPS, compared to 3Q 2007 net income of $28.7 million or $0.49 EPS. Same location sales declined 12-13%. Company expansion was flat with 6 new locations replacing 6 closed locations.

To be fair, some of the decline in customer traffic was due to a company-wide remodel of many locations. The company spent $25 million in 3Q updating its facilities and its menu, with plans to double that amount in the coming year in order to help Ruby Tuesday stand out from its bar and grill competition. Let's hope the remodel woos customers back into its restaurants. The company is renegotiating its existing debt covenants, and controlling advertising expenditures and other costs. CEO Sandy Beall hopes these initiatives will "set the stage for future profits."

FY 2008 guidance is not encouraging. The company expects sales to continue to decline 9-10%, leading to diluted EPS in the $0.40-$0.50 range. The stock jumped 5% on Thursday when 3Q earnings per share (EPS) beat estimates by $0.05, but has since dropped off 2% to trade at just around $8 per share.

Shares of retailer Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE:FDO) have been taking a hit in early trading as the company slashed its full-year earnings outlook amid tumbling market conditions.The retailer was able to post better-than-expected earnings numbers but this was not enough to reassure investors who pushed the stock down over 1%.

Family Dollar Stores announced that its second quarter profit had dropped 30% to $63.3 million, down from $90.5 million reported in the same period a year ago when the company benefited from an extra week of holiday sales. The retailer posted quarterly earnings of 45 cents a share, slightly higher the 42 cents a share that analysts expected.

The company posted a drop of 6% in its second-quarter revenue to $1.83 billion, down from $1.95 billion a year earlier. Analysts forecast revenue of $1.84 billion in the quarter, according to Thomson Financial. The drop in revenue came as the retailer had to face a difficult consumer environment brought by the U.S. housing market slowdown, high gas prices and credit crisis.

What's a tell-tale sign of a recession, and conversely, an indicator investors/readers should monitor to spot when the recovery has started? Retail sales -- particularly at department stores.

Most retailers will report March 2008 same-store sales this week, and Wall Street is bracing for the worst. In January 2008 and February 2008, same-store sales declined at nearly every major department store, including JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), Macy's (NYSE: M), Kohl's (NYSE: KSS), Dillard's (NYSE: DDS) and Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN).

Further, investors should watch Nordstrom's same-store sales carefully. The reason? Upscale retailer Nordstrom is a type of quick-reference, or an economic-barometer-in-a-snapshot, of the depth of a recession. If retail sales decline at broader-demographic retailers for several consecutive months, that points to a recession. But if sales decline at upscale retailer Nordstrom, that's a sign that even those with higher incomes and substantial assets are cutting back, which is a bad sign for the economy.

Nordtstrom's customers include professionals, executives and business owners -- including people who make hiring decisions. If they're cutting back, that may indicate they will not be hiring in the period ahead, which is never good news for the economy. Invariably, it means the recession's end is not near.

In Q4 2007, Nordstrom's sales fell 4.4% and earnings per share fell for the first time in more than five years to 92 cents per share. If Nordstrom's same-store sales decline again in March, that's a sign of continued belt-tightening by upper-middle and upper-income adults, and a sign that an economic recovery is not near.

MarketWatch reports that in February consumer spending rose 0.1%. While the government is careful to avoid using the 'R'-word (recession), with 70% of GDP growth attributable to consumer spending, the lack of growth in February consumer spending raises the possibility that the March figure could be negative. And that could mean that when GDP growth is reported for the first quarter of 2008, the economy will have shrunk.

What I found most interesting about this report is that if official statistics are to be believed, things are getting better for consumers. Last year, the savings rate was -0.7%, the worst since the Great Depression. But the most recent statistics suggest that consumer incomes are growing faster than inflation and that the savings rate is actually improving as a result. Specifically, MarketWatch notes that consumer's real disposable incomes were up 0.3% while inflation grew at a mere 0.1%, resulting in a savings rate of 0.3%.

These numbers suggest that fears of a recession are actually making consumers respond rationally. Since they fear losing their job -- or perhaps slower income growth -- consumers are spending less and saving more. Perhaps the tightening of the credit markets is making people realize that they will not be able to borrow money to pay their bills and will thus need to live within their means by cutting back on unnecessary expenses.

Does this sound like you or not?

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Real consumer spending increased a scant 0.1% in February 2008, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Friday, inline with expectations. It was the third straight month of sub-par consumer demand, suggesting that a major component of U.S. economic growth is faltering, which typically leads to a recession.

Meanwhile, inflation eased in January 2008, with consumer prices increasing 0.1%. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, also increased just 0.1%. For the past 12 months, consumer prices have increased 3.4%, while the core rate has increased 2%, or below the U.S. Federal Reserve's inflation ceiling, i.e. within the Fed's 'comfort zone.'

In addition, personal income increased 0.5% in February 2008, with wages and salaries increasing 0.3%, asset income rising 0.2%, while rental income plunging 5.3%. This increase in income was above expectations of 0.3%.

Economic Analysis: One negative and one positive data point for the U.S. economy in the report. The essentially flat 0.1% increase in consumer spending for the third straight month is indicative of a slowdown in consumer demand, which suggests, at minimum, continued economic sluggishness ahead. A bright point: core inflation, running at 2.0%, remains below what the U.S. Federal Reserve considers to be excessive. If the core rate doesn't increase, that should provide additional leeway for the Fed to further lower short-term interest rates, should it choose to do so.

The U.S. economy slowed substantially in Q4 2007 to a 0.6% annualized rate, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Thursday, in its final estimate for the quarter. It was the slowest annualized growth rate since 2002.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the final Q4 2007 GDP statistic to be 0.6%.

For 2007, the U.S. economy grew 2.2%, after adjusting for inflation -- its slowest growth rate in five years. The U.S. economy grew 2.9% in 2006.

In dollar terms, U.S. GDP in 2007 totaled $13.84 trillion, not adjusted for inflation.

In Q4 2007, business inventories increased 6%, exports increased 6.5%, government spending rose 2%, imports fell 1.4% and residential investment plummeted 25.2%.

The report was a virtual carbon-copy of the Commerce Department's earlier estimate for Q4 2007 GDP, save new data on corporate profits, which were revised $37.9 billion lower to a $1.11 trillion annualized rate. Corporate profits after taxes are up 3.3% from a year ago.