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15 favorite ETFs for 2009

For 26 years, at the start of each year, I've conducted an annual survey of newsletter advisors, asking for their favorite investment for the coming year. Until 2 or 3 years ago, their responses were almost always individual stocks and an occasional mutual fund.

Increasingly in recent years, many advisors have found their favorite positions to be exchange traded funds, whereby they can invest in a sector, region, or strategy without the inherent risk of an individual company. Indeed, in this year survey of 75 advisors, fully 1 out of 5 advisors chose ETFs.

ETFs were a popular choice for those seeking global exposure. Mark Salzinger, editor of The Investor's ETF Report, selects the S&P China SPDR (NYSE: GXC) as his favored play. (Read the full article here.)

Nick Vardy sees opportunity in China, but also sees potential in a broader range of emerging global markets. The editor of Global Stock Investor looks to the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ASE: EEM) as his top idea for 2009. (Read the full article here.)

Carl Delfeld of Chartwell Advisors also wants to own a basket of emerging markets stocks, but only small caps. His pick is the WisdomTree Emerging Market Small Cap (NYSE: DGS). (Read the full article here.)

Jim Lowell takes a similar view -- chosing global small caps -- but adds a further restriction. His recommended ETF limits its holdings to dividend paying stocks. Hence, the top pick in his Marketwatch ETF Trader is the WisdomTree International Small Cap Dividend (NYSE: DLS). (Read the full article here.)

ETFs an also be used to play a specific sector, such as consumer stocks. Leonard Goodall sees upside in companies making the "basics" such as soda, toothpaste and soap. In his No-Load Fund Investor, his top way to play this trend is the Consumer Staples ETF (NYSE: XLP). (Read the full article here.)

In addition to using ETFs to invest in a region, country or sector, these vehicles can also be used to invest in a certain strategy. For example, Tom Bishop, editor of BI Research, chooses the PowerShares Value Line Industry Rotation ETF (NYSE: PYH), which rotates its holdings to only include stocks that earn Value Line's top investment rating. (Read the full article here.)

Doug Fabian, editor of Successful Investing, looks to PowerShares DB Crude (NYSE: DXO), an exchange-traded note. While this leveraged position goes up twice as much as the underlying index when it rises, it also goes down twice as much when the index declines. (Read the full article here.)

Paul Tracy, editor of StreetAuthority Market Advisor takes a similar approach, but rather than speculate on the price of oil and gas, he looks to ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (NYSE: DIG), which invests in a basket of stocks operating within these sectors. (Read the full article here.)

The most popular choice in this year's survey was ETFs investing in gold. Both Vivian Lewis, editor of Global Investing, recommends the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD); it's price reflects 1/10th of an ounce of gold. (Read the full article here.)

Mary Anne Aden, editor of The Aden Forecast, also selects the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) as her top investment ideas for the coming year. (Read the full article here.)

Mark Leibovit, market timer and editor of VRTrader, holds a long-term bullish view on gold and opts for upside leverage. His top pick is the PowerShares DB Gold Double Long (NYSE: DGP). (Read the full article here.)

Pamela Aden, co-editor for The Aden Forecast, also sees upside potential in gold but prefers to invest in the companies that mine for the precious metal. Her top pick is the Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX). (Read the full article here.)

For greater leverage (and higher risk), Steve Rawls, editor of Tipping Point Stocks, suggests the ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE: UGL), which moves twice the rate of the underlying London gold price. (Read the full article here.)

Mike Larson, editor of Money & Markets, sees downside risk in financial stocks. But rather than try and select which stock might fall, he opts for a basket of financial players with the ProShares Trust Short Financials (NYSE: SEF). As an "inverse" fund, this moves in the opposite direction of the underlying index. (Read the full article here.)

And for even higher risk and volatility, Michael Shulman, editor of ChangeWave Shorts, looks to the ProShares UltraShort Financials (NYSE: SKF), an inverse double fund. Not only does it move in the opposite direction of financial stocks, but it moves twice as much. (Read the full article here.)

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Top Stock Picks '09: Consumer Staples ETF (XLP)

This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.

"My favorite idea for 2009 is a defensive play -- the Consumer Staples SPDR (NYSE: XLP)," says Leonard E. Goodall in his No-Load Portfolios. Here's his review of the exchange-traded fund.

"My recommendation of Consumer Staples SPDR is based on my assumption that the U.S. and world economies will continue to decline through most of 2009, hitting a bottom in the fourth quarter of 2009 or the first quarter of 2010.

"If I thought the economy would recover sooner, I would prefer stocks and funds that are more aggressive in investment strategy.

"XLP provides good investor protection in an uncertain economy. Its major holdings include Colgate, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, CVS, Walmart, and Procter & Gamble.

"In tough times people will continue to buy toothpaste, medicines, soap, and other necessities. Of course, two of its other large holdings, Altria and Anheuser Busch, recognize they will also continue to drink and smoke!

Continue reading Top Stock Picks '09: Consumer Staples ETF (XLP)

Cheap Stocks: The J.M. Smucker Company

This post is part of a series featuring bargain stocks that are worth a look now. See more Cheap Stocks.

If peanut butter-and-jelly sandwiches are comfort food, then The J.M. Smucker Company (NYSE: SJM) is a comfort stock. You're probably familiar with the firm's trademark jams and jellies, but Smucker also peddles foodstuffs under the brand names Jif, Crisco, Hungry Jack, Pillsbury, and Carnation, to name just a few. In short, you'd be hard-pressed to find any aisle in your local grocery store that doesn't display Smucker's wares.

In its most recent earnings report, SJM proved that it's good to be a consumer-staples company in today's tumultuous economy. Chairman Tim Smucker observed, "The number of meals prepared and consumed at home, as recent market data indicate, continues to be trending upward in this challenging economic environment, and are currently at levels not seen since 1994."

Not only did this positive fundamental catalyst allow Smucker to beat analysts' earnings-per-share estimates, the firm absolutely crushed Wall Street's revenue expectations. The jam giant boasted second-quarter sales of $843.1 million, up 19% from the year-ago period, while analysts had expected revenue of just $796.1 million.

Despite the company's fundamental advantage, short sellers are overwhelmingly betting against SJM. Short interest on the stock has ballooned by an eye-popping 397% during the past month, and now represents 10.7% of the equity's available float. In light of Smucker's strong earnings report and its ensuing surge on the charts, SJM could bounce higher as the shorts are forced to cover their bearish bets.

Continue reading Cheap Stocks: The J.M. Smucker Company

Cheap Stocks: The Clorox Company

This post is part of a series featuring bargain stocks that are worth a look now. See more Cheap Stocks.

Oakland, California, might not be too pleased with the performance of the Raiders, but the (other) City by the Bay can take some pride in The Clorox Company (NYSE: CLX), a hometown stock made good. Even those of you bracing for the worst-case economic scenario can take heart in the fact that Clorox has been around since 1913, and successfully weathered two World Wars and the Great Depression.

In addition to its eponymous bleach, Clorox produces a slew of other well-known consumer staples. You may recognize such brand names as Pine-Sol, Formula 409, Brita, Glad, Hidden Valley, and Burt's Bees -- one of the newest additions to the CLX family. The Burt's Bees buy indicates that Clorox isn't resting on its stable of staples; instead, the company is actively trying to stay relevant amid a shifting consumer climate.

The home-goods firm released its first-quarter earnings on October 31 and cruised past analysts' profit estimates by seven cents per share. Clorox trimmed its sales outlook due to the expected impact of declining foreign currencies, but Chairman and CEO Don Knauss showed no hint of vulnerability. "We will not give consumers a reason to choose another brand," Knauss vowed on a conference call.

Continue reading Cheap Stocks: The Clorox Company

Stay defensive: Invest in consumer staples

"If you're going to stay invested, you should look to defensive sectors," explain Ron Rowland and Brandon Clay, who point to consumer staples as a top pick for the current market environment.

In their Invest with an Edge, the advisors explain, "Perhaps the best way to stay defensive is with the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLP), an exchange traded fund.

"In a bear market, opportunities are usually limited to certain sectors. Surveying the investment horizon, we think the consumer staples sector has the best opportunity for growth in this economy.

"Regardless how the economy acts, people still eat. Consumers may not shop at Whole Foods, but they'll still buy groceries. Companies like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Safeway (NYSE: SWY) will continue to rake in revenues from hungry customers.

"In addition, these companies should continue to receive additional revenue from consumers who normally shop at specialty stores, but can no longer afford to.

"Consumers may not be shopping at Sharper Image any more, but there are other creature comforts that will be difficult for Americans to abandon.

"Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) will still sell products during a prolonged downturn. In addition, companies providing toiletries and convenience like Procter and Gamble and CVS Pharmacy stand to do well during a shifty economy.

Continue reading Stay defensive: Invest in consumer staples

Coke (KO) moving up nicely following Q3 earnings

It's another tough day on Wall Street, but for Coca Cola (NYSE: KO) it's looking like a very good day, as shares are moving strongly higher after the company reported better than expected third quarter earnings this morning.

For its most recent quarter, the soft drink giant was expected to show earnings per share of 77 cents, but the actual number was a more impressive 81 cents per share (83 cents excluding one time items). The company noted that strong growth in emerging markets really helped boost the quarter.

The quarterly numbers represent a 14% increase from the company's third quarter last year when it reported 71 cents per share. Revenues were up 9.1% during the quarter to $8.39 billion.

While demand within the U.S. has been wavering for the company, strong international performance helped Coke come through with a strong quarter. While the company saw a 2% drop in U.S. sales in the quarter, it put up pretty impressive revenue growth figures in other markets -- 17% in Eurasia and Africa, 10% in Europe and 24% in Latin America.

Continue reading Coke (KO) moving up nicely following Q3 earnings

Never fear, 2008 will end higher -- think index funds and ETFs

In the midst of all the bad news it's hard to imagine the stock market ending the year higher than it started. However, that is entirely possible and probably much better than a 50/50 bet. If you want to play it safe consider buying into an index fund or exchange traded funds (ETFs) instead of banking on individual stocks.

For broad coverage you cannot beat the Vanguard Total Stock Market or the Total International Stock funds with the lowest fees and longest history in this area. I think it has also been generally accepted investing strategy over the last few decades that in bearish markets there is a run to quality and "guns and butter" stocks. If you were to follow this old adage you would be considering three sectors, healthcare, defense and consumer staples.

Mutual funds and ETFs (with less history) are less volatile and offer greater diversification than most investors could achieve, and at much lower cost. If you dollar cost average over the next few months you should also be able to smooth out some bumps in the current market.

When the political machine goes to work to juice the economy the market has most often responded positively. That does not mean it's smart for the country, but since when is a politicians first thought about the country.

Continue reading Never fear, 2008 will end higher -- think index funds and ETFs

Sectors: the good and the bad when an economic downturn hits

In "GDP data adds to negative outlook for stocks," I noted that various measures are signaling that a recession is imminent and that it would be bad for stocks, at least in the short run.

Under the circumstances, one course of action is to eliminate or reduce exposure to equities to minimize the risk of loss. For investors who must or prefer to remain invested, the best strategy is to avoid vulnerable sectors and favor those characterized as "defensive."

Based on what happened during the last two recessions, in 1990 and 2001, the two sectors that would best serve as safe havens during an economic storm are Consumer Staples (which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, or ETF (AMEX: XLP) and Health Care (AMEX: XLV) . Both ended up in the black six months after those downturns began, in contrast to the overall market.

Continue reading Sectors: the good and the bad when an economic downturn hits

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-17.2410,433.71
NASDAQ-6.832,169.18
S&P 500-0.591,105.65

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 02:26 AM

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