Consumer spending may be down, but its share of U.S. economic activity has increased. So, we're now more dependent than before on the average Joe's open wallet to guide us out of the recession. A year ago, consumer spending accounted for 70% of the U.S. economy. Since then, it has edged up to 71%. The long-term average is approximately 65%.

The increase in consumer spending's share of the economy indicates that other sectors fell harder. Business and construction spending on new equipment have constricted at a record rate since 2008. This isn't unusual, though, as consumer spending tends to take a larger piece of the economic pie during downturns.

Coffee king Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) is one of the myriad companies posting earnings today, as it is slated to release its third-quarter earnings report after the closing bell this afternoon. Analysts expect the company to report earnings of 19 cents per share, excluding special items. Such results would outpace the firm's year-ago earnings by three cents per share.

The company is expected to post these earnings in the face of the recession, as cost cuts and store closures are thought to have insulated the company's profits. The results will also be closely monitored to see the impact of the company's main competitors -- which includes McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD).

Do you like shopping at Target (NYSE: TGT)? Many people do. In fact, investors are hoping that so many people like buying things at the bullseye retailer that the company will beat earnings expectations for the third quarter. Target will be reporting on Monday, November 17. What should we expect?

Shareholders should expect a drop in the bottom line. Now, did we need a source to tell us this? Probably not. The consumer is starting to feel scared, there's no doubt about it. I'm sure everyone has anecdotal evidence concerning the fear that is out there. Consumers are afraid that the job cuts being reported in the papers will eventually reach their cubicle, so they're scaling back on spending. So, if Target merely meets the expectation for $0.49 per share next Monday, I'm sure many shareholders will breathe a sigh of relief, even though that will represent about a 12% drop in per-share profit.

I'm not so sure Target will beat, though. For one thing, Brent Archer recently reported on Target's lousy October sales data. They missed Wall Street's mark. Since Target beat the last two quarters; I figure we're due for a miss considering everything that's been going on. We shall see. I'll be interested to see how the margins are doing and what kind of position the company may be in going into Black Friday. And I'll be looking at the comps, of course.

Today's Wall Street Journal has an article about the cost-cutting measures going on retailer, JC Penney (NYSE: JCP). The article, essentially an interview with CEO and Chairman, Myron "Mike" Ullman III, details Ullman's changing of gears, from aggressive store expansion and online growth to scaling back in the face of a looming recession.

The CEO is expected to announce today plans to merge the buying and marketing operations for store and online sales, cutting as many as 200 jobs.

In the article, Ullman says he may scale back store expansion over the next two years.

Getting more of the consumer's wallet

Ullman says, "Half of the families in the U.S. shopped with us at least once last year. But we only get 7% of their spending. So, our biggest opportunity in the downturn is to make every visit they make to our store, Internet or catalog more productive by offering more innovation."

Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) instituted a new customer slogan this year: "Save Money. Live Better." Although it was intended to reinforce the retailer's position that it helps families in an age of increasing prices and general inflationary pressure, much of the public didn't get the memo, apparently.

Keep in mind that it's hard to completely trust anything by either the retailer or its watchdog groups like Wal-Mart Watch, the latter released a survey that concluded only 4% of people believe that Wal-Mart saves the average American family $2,500 annually. The same report says that customers may indeed be paying less, but Wal-Mart is not the only company that can help them pad those wallets and fill those purses.

Of course, Wal-Mart Watch says that the study that backs Wal-Mart's "$2,500" claim credits just the retailer's existence with saving the customer that much. Perhaps that's through pricing competition in the area and inflation control more than Wal-Mart customers specifically saving that much by shopping at Wal-Mart? That could certainly be inferred here.

Regardless, does the mere existence of Wal-Mart control the complete, surrounding retail ecosystem, causing prices to remain ultra-competitive? Probably so -- and Wal-Mart's "Save Money. Live Better" might just be a statement of fact rather than a corporate pitch. Either way, there's probably some good truth in there.

Most of the day, the Dow Jones industrial average was in a steady, but slow decline -- the kind of drop where traders figure it's going to be a negative day, but nothing to worry too much about.

But after the much-anticipated minutes of the Federal Reserve Board's Aug. 7 meeting went public around 2 P.M. and investors didn't see the signs they were hoping for that the central bank would be willing to cut interest rates, the selling picked up. The Dow closed down about 250 points. That's less than 2% -- hardly the stuff of panic -- but more indication that a lot of professional investors are counting on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, and do it soon.

A decline in consumer confidence reported earlier in the day didn't help. It's becoming increasingly clear that the real danger with the meltdown in the sub-prime mortgage market is not with the financial sector. Sure, hedge funds will shut down, big banks' earnings will suffer. But the really big worry now is that the U.S. consumer could roll over.

That's the view of Robert Loest, senior portfolio manager of Integrity Mutual Funds, who visited AOL's offices today. The housing market is not going to rebound quickly or easily -- especially with so many adjustable rate mortgages still due to reset to higher rates in 2008, he warns. And he suggests investors avoid all consumer plays; not just the luxury goods stocks, but even discounters, like Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT).

Loest further recommends picking up some counter-cyclical stocks -- like bankruptcy software maker Epiq Systems (NYSE: EPIQ) or collection agency Portfolio Recovery Associates (NYSE: PRAA), both of which he owns. "Those are the kind of stocks that should do well when the economy does poorly and could make a real difference to your portfolio," he says.

• Best Buy reported a drop in gross margins, as promotions for higher-end flat panel TVs kick in. Same store sale comps came in at a positive 3% and the company is guiding to 2% to 2.5% growth.
• Circuit City warned last quarter that business was deteriorating, with its stock getting hit hard.
• Wendy's reported a 3% drop in same store sales and a big miss on its EBITDA line.

Yesterday I received a pre-approved offer for Washington Mutual's (NYSE: WM) Visa Platinum card. I receive dozens of offers like this every month, even though I've never asked for a single one of them. While I find most of them mildly annoying, this one was particularly presumptuous. On the front of the envelope, this was written: "REMOVE CONTENTS before you discard". Jason, a blogger at Signal vs. Noise posted a picture of an offer he had received (pictured at right) with the same warning, and mused that "They know I'm going to toss it, but they want to give me a good scare first, cause, ya know, someone will definitely steal my identity if I don't take that fake credit card out of there."

The offer he received sounds exactly the one I have in my hand, because I too received a cardboard credit card. But here's my question for Washington Mutual:

Why the (expletive) should I have to open the envelope and remove the contents before I discard a promotional mailing that I didn't ask for and don't want?

Being an investigative reporter/Chris Hansen wanna-be, I called up the number provided in the mailing to try to find out. After sitting on hold for about five minutes (and being told 11 times that the call might be being recorded), I was connected with a lady with a thick accent. After explaining that I didn't want to open an account (although she insisted I give her my reservation number and I had to repeat it five times), I asked her my question. Here's our conversation:

Zac: "Why do I have to open this junk mail before I throw it out?"

Lady: "I don't know sir."

Zac: "Well can I talk to someone who does?"

Lady: "No sir."

Zac: "Well can I just talk to your supervisor?"

Lady: "You can but she won't know either."

Zac: "Do you have a number for someone who might?"

Lady: "No sir."

Zac: "OK. Well thanks anyway, and have a nice day."

Lady: "Do you still want to open an account?"

This is a case of one of two things: Duplicitous marketing or a mass mailing that could possibly be causing identity theft. Either the warning on the envelope is there to make you think your personal information could be in danger, forcing you to open their mailing or they actually are sending me unsolicited junk mail that contains enough information to steal my identity. I have a hunch the first is the right answer, but I still can't decide which would be more evil.