Consumer confidence was able to break a three month streak of declines by inching slightly higher during the month of March.

While it is great to see consumers gaining a little bit of confidence again, it is still too early to get carried away. Currently, The Consumer Confidence Index is sitting at 26. This is above the 25.3 reading in February, but below the anticipated 28 that analysts had been predicting.

Shares of online auction giant eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) have dropped sharply today, pushing the stock down to lows not hit in seven years.

The stock, which has dropped over 20% so far this year, is down 8% on the day to $10.54. One of the big reasons why the site has been struggling has been the lack of confidence among buyers stemming from rampart counterfeiting that has been taking place on the site.

Home prices continued their downward spiral in the fourth quarter, posting a record drop in values.

One of the most widely watched indexes for home values is the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index and, according to data released today, the index dropped by an amazing 18.2% during the fourth quarter when compared with the same period in 2007. This marks the largest quarterly drop in the 21 years that the index has been tracking home prices.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s (NYSE: WMT) new Chief Executive Mike Duke will have his hands full once he takes control of the world's largest retailer on Sunday.

For one thing, the economy continues to struggle. Gross Domestic Product fell 3.8% in the fourth quarter, the most since 1982. Consumer spending fell 3.5% in the quarter as unsold goods continued to pile up. Though consumer confidence rose to a four-month high, it was still weaker than expected.

While consumer confidence has dropped in the US, there has been a theory that in emerging markets people could still show some optimism. At least in many of those countries GDP is still growing meaning employment should move up, or, at least remain stable. Exports, strong for years, should allow for some advancement in the workforce and improving pay scales.

A new survey bursts that bubble and shows that people across the world are cutting spending because fear about income and job security has taken hold in established and emerging markets alike.

According to Reuters, global research firm Ipsos Global Public Affairs conducted a study of consumer confidence in 22 nations. The news service writes that 'While countries like China, India and Russia have helped fuel world growth in recent years, the survey of 22 states in November found consumer optimism in such emerging economic powers in "precipitous decline."' Three-quarters of households across all of these nations are cutting spending.

The news means that the cycle of consumer buying which cause exports from nations like China and imports in the US and EU may be completely disrupted. That in turn will cause income and consumption in emerging countries to fall and do significant damage to their GDP numbers.

Most economists believe that nations including China and India may facing slowing economic activity but that real recessions are out of the question. If consumer activity is a leading indicator. these countries may see their first GDP contractions in years.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

If you made a bet on the specialty retailers leading up to the first $600 taxpayer rebate stimulus package, you got hammered.

Talk about a government plan backfiring big time.

That $300 billion in checks that fell out of the sky from government helicopters back in the March to May timeframe didn't find its way to the malls at all.

Instead, people paid down credit card debt, and tuition, medical and other bills, leaving little for spending on non-essentials.

The result was a litany of store closings nationwide, with several old-line, brand-name retailers going out of business.

It's game over for names like Circuit City (OTC: CCTYQ), Cache (NASDAQ: CACH), Talbots (NYSE: TLB), J. Jill, Wickes Furniture, Levitz, Bombay, Linens 'n Things, Movie Gallery, Wilson Leather, KB Toys and The Sharper Image.

Traders that leveraged into darling names, like hedge fund idol Eddie Lampert's Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD), got smoked. Shares of SHLD were trading at $105 when the checks when out. Today the stock is around $40.

Even Costco (NASDAQ: COST) -- the obvious slam dunk, aside from Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) -- got slammed, falling from $75 to $45 following the so-called stimulus package.

Maybe the government should start subsidizing the anti-depressant industry. That's the only way investors are going to be able to cope with the drumbeat of depressing economic news such as consumer confidence hitting near a 28-year low.

According to Bloomberg News, The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose to 57.9, from 57.6 in October. In 2007, the index averaged 85.6. I was able to tell things were bad this summer by the huge number of garage sales that I saw in my area. A few people placed their living room furniture for sale on their front lawns. It was among the saddest things I have ever seen.

Consumers have good reason to feel uneasy. Companies such as Sun Microsystems Inc. (NASDAQ: JAVA) are laying off thousands of workers. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson abruptly changed his mind yesterday about how to prop-up the ailing banking sector and still wants to keep details of the deals that have been cut secret. My colleague Peter Cohan persuasively argued that President-elect Barack Obama should scrap the Paulson plan when he takes office in January.

Are you better off than you were a year ago? Probably not. Since then, global markets have lost roughly half, or $30 trillion worth of their value. House prices fell 16.6% between August 2007 and August 2008 and 3.4 million people are expected to have foreclosed on their houses by the end of 2009. So you can't retire as soon as you thought and if you still own it, you can't borrow money against your house.

Looking ahead to the holiday season and witnessing thousands of people losing their jobs could put you in a bad mood. After all, median income is down since 2000 while it still costs much more to fill your gas tank than it did back then -- not to mention pay for health care. So it should come as no surprise to learn that consumer confidence is lower than it has been in the last 41 years.

But consumers are not smart. As John McCain advisor, Phil Gramm has said, Americans are whiners. And McCain himself has made it clear that the economic fundamentals are strong. After all, McCain (or more likely his wife) owns seven houses and thirteen cars. So the point is that his economic fundamentals are strong. And that's all that really matters.

As for American workers, let them eat cake.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

In a sign that Americans are bracing themselves for hard times, or at least taking a break and holding their breath while they see what direction things go in, apparel chains reported September sales, which usually rise at this time of year, were not at all where stores expect them to be.

In a sign that customers are looking toward frugality, WalMart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) saw a small gain in sales, though not as much as analysts would have liked.

Look for this effect to hit other retail environments, not just apparel, if the market continues to be the top headline and spook customers.

One of the most basic precepts of the U.S. economy is that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth depends on the consumer -- some 70% of GDP growth, in particular. The U.S. has created two inter-related industry clusters to assure that consumer spending keeps growing. While one continues in full force, the other is failing fast. This is causing consumers to put their spending into reverse, creating an economy-wide recession diet on steroids.

What are these two inter-related industry clusters? The Celebrity Industrial Complex (CIC) assures that we see images of the wealthiest and most celebrated sliver of society -- creating a desire to close the gap between us and them. And the Borrowing Industrial Complex (BIC) provides the cash we otherwise could not afford to pay for the goods and services that never quite close that gap. The CIC is still going strong, but with incomes down since 2000, household wealth slashed by $6 trillion, and banks scrambling for capital, the BIC is in cardiac arrest.

Consumers have decided to ignore the psychological pull of the CIC and use whatever money they still have to keep their families alive. While official government statistics don't show this -- perhaps they will when it releases third quarter reports -- consumers are cutting back. Gil Colon, sales manager at Villa Reale, a Las Vegas art and furniture store puts it well: "People have lost their confidence. They have no buying power. They are losing their retirements, their vacation funds, and they are scared to commit to buying anything," according to The New York Times.

Consumer confidence hit a five month high, according to a Reuters/University of Michigan survey. However, for those hoping for a recovery, that good news comes with a lot of negative.

General consumer spending dipped, probably in no small part to a dip in personal income of 0.7% in July, according to recent numbers. Also up, price increases that have pushed inflation to a 17-year high that has eroded consumer buying power. Both of these work to negate any impact consumer confidence might have.

Also adding weight to the market are worries and uncertainties surrounding the effect hurricane Gustav will have on oil production, ending a long run of lowering oil prices. Expect higher gas prices.

With all these worries on people's minds, here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

DJIA: 11,543.96 -171.22 (-1.46%)
NASDAQ: 2,367.52 -44.12 (-1.83%)
S&P 500: 1,287.23 -13.45 (-1.03%)
10-Year Bond: 3.81% +0.03 (0.79%)

For those of you who own blue-chip stocks, this is an eye-opening prediction. An article at CNBC.com talks about the possibility of Dow 10,000. Dow 10,000!

I repeated that in case you didn't get it the first time. It sounds pretty scary to me, and it should sound pretty scary to a lot of you out there. I'd have to presume that most investors don't use the stock market primarily as a substitute casino for the times when Las Vegas is out of reach. Many of you out there must own a Disney (NYSE: DIS) or a Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), maybe a General Electric (NYSE: GE) or a Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), something generally considered core and safe for the long-term. I happen to own the first three. Anyone who does is in for some huge volatility if Dow 10,000 comes along.

Actually, whether it comes along or not, volatility is here to stay. And here's the thing about the Dow 10,000 prediction: it isn't so farfetched on a mathematical basis. When you first read that number, you say to yourself "No way, that would be like a depression!" But because the numbers are getting higher, the actual point moves aren't as dramatic as they may seem on the surface. If we hit 10,000, that would represent a decline of approximately 29% from the high reached back in October 2007. As I write this, the Dow is about 20% off the high. Is another 9% feasible?

Well, I can't predict when the market will turn, or when Toyota's (NYSE: TM) stock will once again be in favor, but I can tell you that I won't be buying its shares here. According to this article, Toyota may not do as well as it planned in terms of sales in 2008 in the U.S. market. The company told investors that year-over-year growth in the number of cars sold is now in question. In 2007, Toyota moved 2.62 million automobiles in the U.S., and for 2008, Toyota wanted to sell 2.64 million cars.

I probably don't need to say it, but I will: considering the negative trends in oil futures, gas prices, consumer confidence, inflation, recession potential, and the housing industry, the fact that the stocks of Toyota, General Motors (NYSE: GM), and Ford (NYSE: F) are having a really tough time right now is not surprising. Toyota's stock closed down 2% on the news of the sales struggle at the end of Tuesday's trading session. That's not a particularly horrible downward move, and the stock is still a few bucks above its 52-week low, but I think there's a chance the stock will take out that low at some point.

Investing in the auto industry might be a dicey move here. Sure, you could pick up some bounces, but being early in this space could prove depressing for even the heartiest investor. Auto sales might get worse before they get better (they're pretty bad now as it is), so I'll stay away from Toyota and this sector.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.

Reuters reports that consumer confidence has hit a 28-year low. That should not come as a surprise. After all, between 2000 and 2007 the median income has dropped from $61,000 to $60,500. But prices have skyrocketed. And with growth slowing -- the prospect of layoffs looms large while consumers expect prices to keep rising.

There is something called the Federal Reserve. And it's supposed to keep those inflationary expectations under control by raising interest rates to strengthen the currency and keep credit use from going haywire. But the Fed got confused. It thought that by cutting rates from 5.25% to 2%, it could revive a frozen credit market without boosting inflation. Whoops! Now the credit markets remain frozen but actual inflation and expectations for future inflation are both skyrocketing.

Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) recently said that it would scale back its plans for opening new locations in the U.S. in 2008 and for the next few years, citing a "squeeze-play on consumers." Instead of the announced 90 new stores this year, Kohl's now expects to open 70 to 75 new stores this year. The retailer is still on track to open its 1,000th store later in 2008, however.

Although the "mall store outside the mall" has identified about 400 sites for potential locations in the near future, it said that kind of expansion may not happen until 2014. Last year, the retailer opened 112 stores nationwide, ending up with a total of 943 stores total in 57 states.

Kohl's is right when it said that its customers are "under a lot of pressure" due to higher fuel, grocery and health care costs. The good news, from what I have seen in the past, is that Kohl's has very low prices for much of its "Croft & Barrow" apparel items, its private-label brand. If it can fight the good fight with Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) in terms of prices and clothing selection, it may yet have decent sales on those items as expensive housewares and related items sink this year.