There's always good news, if you're willing to look hard for it. So, even though consumer sentiment dropped as unemployment rose, you can find the seeds of economic recovery in some of the U.S. import and export data reported recently.

Consumer sentiment fell early this month, largely because of the grim outlook for the job market. Consumers don't see a recovery coming anytime soon, with economists saying that unemployment has yet to peak despite having hit 10.2% already. Hopes edged higher in September when imports were seen to be on the rise, but sentiment starts and ends with jobs.

Continue reading Consumer sentiment down, but glimmer of hope in trade data

Consumer sentiment down, but glimmer of hope in trade data originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 13 Nov 2009 17:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The recession is only over if you ask the right people. While some sectors are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel, consumers remain concerned. It may be tempting to listen to the experts over the average Joe, but the former don't control 70% of the U.S. economy. So, as long as people are worried abou unemployment (which continues to rise), the levels of debt they carry and whether they're at risk of foreclosure, the recession will live on in the hearts of those who write checks and swipe credit cards.

Continue reading Consumer sentiment drops: savings and debt repayment are culprits

Consumer sentiment drops: savings and debt repayment are culprits originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 16 Oct 2009 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I guess that when the United States sneezes, the world catches a cold. Consumer sentiment was announced to be circling the drain in the United States and the world economy dropped for the first time in four months.

The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index fell to 39.13 this month - from 43.57 last month. Your benchmark: anything below 50 means that there are more pessimists than optimists. In the United States, index fell from 36.7 to 29.5, suggesting that we're more pessimistic than the rest of the world.

Continue reading World consumer confidence follows U.S. down

World consumer confidence follows U.S. down originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 15 Jul 2009 14:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Getting a bank card with a big line of credit used to be as easy as pie. Make an application and get 25% of your annual income as a line. Then spend, spend, spend. Who cares that the annual interest rate might be 18%? Use that home equity loan to pay off the card balance. It is still debt, but your home value is rising.

It looks like that whole cycle is over and that banks are going to sharply cut credit card availability to consumers. That, of course, will hurt retail sales and the nation's GDP.

According to Reuters, "The U.S. credit card industry may pull back well over $2 trillion of lines over the next 18 months due to risk aversion and regulatory changes, leading to sharp declines in consumer spending, prominent banking analyst Meredith Whitney said."

Credit card caps could go so low that the overall access to capital using them may drop 45%.

The prediction shows the extent to which banks are now at odds with almost every other business in America. Financial firms have to keep capital to prevent raising money if they face more losses. Retailers and other business which rely on consumers to borrow need the banks to extend money to consumers to keep their buying power up.

Consumer credit provided by banks drove American economic expansion over the last five years. It is ironic that they are helping to kill it.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

The end of big credit card balances originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 01 Dec 2008 10:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Consumer sentiment as a contrarian indicator: Time to buy stocks? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 05 May 2008 16:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Despite concerns to the contrary, Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) is still growing. It posted the first $100 billion quarter in its history. The world's largest retailer said net sales for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2008 were $106.269 billion, an increase of 8.3% from the year-earlier period. Earnings from continuing operations were $1.02 per share, up 7.4% from 95 cents a year earlier, including a net charge of approximately 2 cents per share for certain items this year.

The top-line numbers were a bit misleading. US sales at the Wal-Mart flagship brand rose a pathetic 5% to $67.4 billion. Sales from international operations rose almost 19% to $27 billion. At that growth rate, overseas sales could match domestic sale in seven or eight years.

Operating income overseas rose over 14% to more than $1.7 billion, or 23% of the global total.

Wal-Mart says it expects expects earnings of 70 cents to 74 cents for the first quarter of fiscal year 2009, and between $3.30 and $3.43 for the full fiscal year 2009. Both numbers were below analysts' estimates of 74 cents and $3.44.

It is clear that Wal-Mart will now have to rely almost completely on international sales to meet its forecasts for the up-coming year. China and Mexico better deliver.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com

Wal-Mart (WMT) has first $100 billion quarter originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 19 Feb 2008 07:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

With economic worries sending luxury goods makers like Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) and Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) well off their highs, at least one super-investor who isn't afraid to go against the conventional wisdom is taking notice.

Nelson Peltz and his Trian funds have upped their stake in Tiffany from 5.6% to 7.9% amid continued weakness in the company's share price -- the stock is already down 20% year to date.

According to the Wall Street Journal [subscription], Peltz has previously said he isn't seeking a seat on the company's board, but wouldn't rule out the possibility of taking an activist stance somewhere down the road. Another big drop could prod him to step in and try to make something happen.

Tiffany recently reported a weak holiday sales period, a strong indication that the economic malaise that started in subprime may be carrying over to more upscale consumers. In recent years, Tiffany's and other luxury goods makers have seen their markets expand to include more luxury aspirational customers. Dependence on less wealthy consumers for sales growth may be making the luxury goods sector less immune to economic woes than it has been historically.

Nelson Peltz ups stake in Tiffany -- are luxury stocks a bargain? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 17 Jan 2008 12:22:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Is it any surprise that consumer sentiment is the worst in two years?

Is it any surprise that consumer sentiment is the worst in two years? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 21 Nov 2007 12:36:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Dow bounces back thanks to 10-yr treasuries, consumers 'holding up' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 13 Jun 2007 17:27:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.