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U.S. weekly jobless claims pass 400k, signaling further economic slowing

Initial U.S. jobless claims increased 16,000 to 404,000 for the week ended June 28, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday.

Claims for the previous week were revised 2,000 higher to 388,000.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 385,000.

Also, the 4-week moving average increased 11,250 to 390,500. Economists view the four-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

Economist Peter Dawson said Thursday the jobless claims picture indicates economic conditions are worsening in the United States. "We're now above 400,000 in new claims. This is a sign the economy is stalling. Earlier, we did not see jobless claims as high as in previous slowdowns, but the job slide is accelerating, so in my view GDP will definitely be negative in Q2," Dawson said. "We've got to find a way to jump-start both jobs and demand or this economy will suffer a deeper recession."

Continue reading U.S. weekly jobless claims pass 400k, signaling further economic slowing

U.S. weekly jobless claims dip, but 4-week average rises

Initial U.S. jobless claims decreased 5,000 to 381,000 for the week ended June 14, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday. However, the total was still above the consensus estimate. Claims for the previous week were revised 26,000 higher to 386,000.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 375,000.

Also, the 4-week moving average increased 3,250 to 375,250. Economists view the 4-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

Economist Peter Dawson said the jobless claims picture reflects the tepid U.S. economy. "We're not seeing jobless claims as high as in previous economic slowdowns, but jobless claims are still trending higher, as evidenced by the 4-week average," Dawson said. "We have the slowest of economies that's not creating new jobs but not resulting in mass lay offs, either, so far."

Continue reading U.S. weekly jobless claims dip, but 4-week average rises

U.S. weekly jobless claims rise to 372k, worse than expected

Initial U.S. jobless claims increased 7,000 to 372,000 for the week ended May 24 - - slightly above the consensus estimate, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday. Claims for the previous week were revised 6,000 lower to 368,000.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 370,000.

Also, the four-week moving average decreased 2,500 to 370,500. Economists view the four-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending May 17 were in: Pennsylvania, +1,695, Missouri, +1,192, South Carolina, +1,045, Indiana, +919, and Kentucky, +811. The largest decreases were in: Michigan, -3,898, North Carolina, -2,610, Georgia, -1,537, New York, -1,421, and Louisiana, -1,333.

Meanwhile, the number of continuing claims increased 36,000 to 3.104 million from a revised 3.068 million for the week ended May 17, the latest period for which figures were available. Further, the 3.104 million total was the highest continuing claims level since February 2004.

Economic Analysis: A poor weekly jobless report - - one that indicates the job market continues to deteriorate. Weekly claims were above the consensus estimate, and although the four-week moving average dipped, it is still at an elevated level, and above the U.S. Federal Reserve's 'danger level' of 350,000. Further, the continuing claims total remains over three million - - an indication of the difficultly U.S. adults are having trying to secure new employment. That statistic, combined with an elevated four-week average, indicates that labor market conditions are softening - - a decided negative for the U.S. economy.

Jobless claims rise as job market continues to soften

Initial U.S. jobless claims increased 6,000 to 371,000 for the week ended May 10 -- slightly above the consensus estimate, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday. Claims for the previous week remained at 367,000.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 370,000.

Also, the 4-week moving average decreased 1,000 to 367,000. Economists view the 4-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

Economist Peter Dawson said this week's job report "shows that labor conditions continued to soften. We're seeing little to no evidence that small or large companies have picked-up their hiring pace."

Continue reading Jobless claims rise as job market continues to soften

U.S. weekly jobless claims fall, but remain at elevated level

Initial jobless claims fell to 366,000 for the week ended March 22 -- below the consensus estimate, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday. Claims for the previous week were revised up 22,000 to 375,000.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 370,000.

Also, the 4-week moving average increased 1,750 to 358,000. Economists view the 4-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending March 15 were Michigan, +6,700, Ohio, +5,486, Missouri, +3,235, North Carolina, +2,586, and Texas, +2,175. The largest decreases were in California, -5,016, New York, -2,138, -Wisconsin, -2,005, Georgia, -1,862, and Florida, 1,651.

The number of continuing claims decreased by 5,000 to 2.845 million from a revised 2.850 million for the week ended March 15, the latest period for which figures were available.

Economic Analysis: Again, another poor weekly statistic. The 4-week moving average remains above the U.S. Federal Reserve's danger level of 350,000. The U.S. Federal Reserve considers a 4-week average above 350,000 a signal of soft labor market conditions. Further, the continuing claims total, which measures the seasonally adjusted uninsured, remains high at 2.85 million, also indicative of a tepid job market. Jobless conditions remain a concern -- a fact that will have to change in order for U.S. GDP and earnings to grow adequately in the quarters ahead.

U.S. four-week jobless claims highest since Oct. 2005

Initial jobless claims fell by 15,000 to 338,000 for the week ended Dec. 1, but the more-telling four-week moving average reached its highest level -- up 4,750 to 340,000 -- since October 2005, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday.

The 338,000 weekly statistic was slightly higher than the 335,000 consensus estimate.

Economists view the four-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

The number of continuing claims decreased by 59,000 to 2.6 million for the week ended Nov. 24, the latest period for which figures were available.

Economic Analysis: The four-week moving average -- the average economists and analysts concentrate on -- continues to move higher and remains a 'data point of concern' for the U.S. economy. Joblessness is not high, but job growth is not high either. Further, although not above the more-problematic 350,000-level, the rising four-week moving average suggests that the job market continues to soften, something the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep an eye on, given the historically strong correlation between employment growth and sustainable economic growth.

Initial jobless claims rise to 352K, highest since Feb. 2007

Initial jobless claims rose by 23,000 to 352,000 for the week ending Nov. 24 -- the highest level since February 2007, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday. The statistic was substantially higher than the 332,000 consensus estimate.

Meanwhile, the more telling 4-week moving average rose slightly -- by 5,750 claims to 335,250, its highest level since March 2007. Economists view the 4-week average as a better indicator of unemployment, as it smooths out strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

The number of continuing claims rose by 112,000 to 2.67 million for the week ended Nov. 17, the latest period for which figures were available. Economists and analysts had expected a continuing claim stat of roughly 2.55 to 2.61 million.

Economic Analysis: The 4-week moving average -- the average economists and analysts focus on -- continues to move higher, which is not a good sign for the U.S. economy. Although not above the more problematic 350,000 level, the rising 4-week moving average suggests that the job market continues to soften, something the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep an eye on, given the historically strong correlation between employment growth and economic growth.

Jobless claims dip to 330K, in line with consensus

First-time claims for unemployment benefits fell 11,000 last week to 330,000 -- in line with the consensus estimate, the U.S. Labor Department announced Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the more-telling four-week moving average fell 750 to 329,750, the Labor Department reported. One year ago, new claims for unemployment insurance totaled 322,000.

An average of 2.57 million Americans are receiving state jobless benefits, also called continuing claims; a year ago about 2.43 million Americans were receiving benefits.

The U.S. jobless rate is at 4.7%, and many economists expect it to climb slightly on soft Q4 GDP growth. The U.S. economy recorded Q3 GDP growth of 3.9%, with many economists projecting a Q4 GDP growth rate in the 1.5-2.2% range.

Continue reading Jobless claims dip to 330K, in line with consensus

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Last updated: July 09, 2008: 03:26 AM

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