Lennar Corp. (LEN) just can't seem to win much respect on Wall Street. Despite well-known fundamental issues within the housing sector, LEN has tallied a year-to-date advance of roughly 35% -- easily topping the 11.4% gain collected by the S&P 500 Index (SPX).

Wall Street seems less than impressed by this technical outperformance, though. Earlier today, S&P Equity downgraded the stock to hold from strong buy, joining six other analysts who maintain a tepid rating on the shares.

Continue reading Outperforming Lennar Shrugs Off Downgrade

Outperforming Lennar Shrugs Off Downgrade originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 17 Dec 2010 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Humble copier company Xerox (XRX) is suddenly the toast of Wall Street. In addition to a bullish Barron's feature earlier this week, the stock garnered a rush of attention from optimistic options players Thursday. Although the security has yet to establish a firm foothold in double-digit territory, it seems that hopes are running pretty high for Xerox.

On Thursday, call volume on XRX surged to 28 times the norm, with roughly 103,000 contracts crossing the tape. Most of the volume was focused on the January 2011 series of options, as one trader closed out a block of 35,000 January 7.50 calls and exchanged them for 35,000 contracts of the January 9 call. By rolling these calls up to a higher strike, the speculator is indicating that he expects additional upside from XRX during the intermediate term.

Continue reading Should You Buy the Bullish Hype on Xerox?

Should You Buy the Bullish Hype on Xerox? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 17 Sep 2010 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) is scheduled to take the earnings stage after Wednesday's closing bell, with Wall Street expecting the homebuilder to report a fiscal third-quarter loss of 52 cents per share. This would mark a notable improvement over Hovnanian's year-ago loss of $2.16 per share, but there's no guarantee the company can match analysts' expectations. During the past four quarters, Hovnanian has fallen short of consensus earnings estimates on two occasions.

Accordingly, speculators have been loading up on bearish bets as Hovnanian's quarterly report approaches. The International Securities Exchange (ISE) reports that traders have bought to open 4.64 puts for every call on HOV during the past 10 days, revealing a strong bias toward pessimistically oriented options.

Continue reading Puts Popular Ahead of Earnings from Hovnanian Enterprises

Puts Popular Ahead of Earnings from Hovnanian Enterprises originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 01 Sep 2010 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Puts Popular Ahead of State Street's Earnings Report

Puts Popular Ahead of State Street's Earnings Report originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 19 Jul 2010 14:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2010 -- #2 Grubb & Ellis

Chasing Value: 2010 -- #2 Grubb & Ellis originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 29 Dec 2009 17:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

As we all know, the market is a fickle mistress -- and I will be the first to admit, she has humiliated me with her indiscretion on many occasions. However, I'm happy to report that my pick of The J.M. Smucker Company (NYSE: SJM) as a "Cheap Stock" for 2009 has not completely blown up in my face (yet).

The peanut butter-based security jumped back on my radar today when I noticed that brokerage firm Janney Montgomery Scott started coverage of SJM with a Buy rating. Not too many analysts are currently following the shares; according to Zacks, the jam giant has garnered just two Strong Buys and one Hold. Any additional bullish initiations could help the stock extend its recent uptrend.

Continue reading Is J.M. Smucker worthy of its new Buy rating?

Is J.M. Smucker worthy of its new Buy rating? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 27 Jan 2009 15:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Virtualization specialist VMware, Inc. (NYSE: VMW) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter earnings next Monday, Jan. 26, after the market closes. Ahead of the announcement, analysts are expecting a profit of 26 cents per share on sales of $516 million. The company has a mixed history in the earnings spotlight; during the past four reporting periods, VMW has matched estimates once, missed once, and surprised to the upside twice.

Prior to next week's release, Wall Street is aligned almost unanimously in the bearish camp. The stock sports 16 Holds and 3 Strong Sell ratings, according to Zacks, compared to just 2 Strong Buys. These skeptical analysts have placed an average 12-month price target of $26.33 on the shares, representing a reasonable 30% premium to Tuesday's closing price.

Elsewhere, short interest represents a whopping 14.6% of VMW's float. This accumulation of bearish bets would take nearly 10 trading days to fully repurchase at the stock's average daily volume. In the event of another upside earnings surprise, the shares could rally as these shorts rush to cover their positions.

Continue reading Can VMware surprise skeptical investors with stronger-than-expected earnings?

Can VMware surprise skeptical investors with stronger-than-expected earnings? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 21 Jan 2009 16:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

However, if history is any indication, there's a good chance KB Home's results will fall short of the Street's predictions. The company has disappointed analysts in each of the previous five quarters by reporting wider-than-expected losses.

On the plus side, it doesn't seem that many players on Wall Street are betting on an upside surprise. During the past 10 days, traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) have bought to open nearly 3 times more puts than calls on KBH. The stock's 10-day ISE put/call ratio of 2.78 ranks higher than 65% of comparable readings taken in the past year, which suggests that bearish sentiment is ramping up ahead of earnings.

Continue reading Expectations approach rock-bottom for KB Home's fourth-quarter earnings

Expectations approach rock-bottom for KB Home's fourth-quarter earnings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 07 Jan 2009 14:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

China-based Suntech Power Holdings (NYSE: STP) is slated to report its third-quarter earnings results ahead of the opening bell tomorrow, and the solar stock looks particularly vulnerable to a post-report drubbing. Sector peer JA Solar (NASDAQ: JASO) fell to an all-time low last week after offering a weak outlook, while Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) today lowered its revenue forecast for 2008.

Currently, First Call reports that analysts are expecting STP to report a quarterly profit of 42 cents per American depositary receipt. Suntech has a respectable history in the earnings spotlight, having exceeded the Street's forecast in three out of its past four reports.

On the plus side, it seems as though many brokerage firms have already downwardly revised their expectations for STP. There have been 10 cuts to the firm's average 2008 earnings-per-share estimates, compared to just two increases.

Plus, several analysts have issued bearish notes on Suntech in the past few weeks: Jefferies & Co. cut its price target on November 17; JPMorgan Chase cut the stock from "neutral" to "underweight" and lowered its price target on November 16; Raymond James downgraded STP from "strong buy" to "outperform" on November 13, the same day that AmTech Research slashed its price target; and Deutsche Bank cut the stock from "hold" to "sell" on November 10.

Continue reading Suntech Power is pummeled with put volume, downgrades ahead of earnings

Suntech Power is pummeled with put volume, downgrades ahead of earnings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 19 Nov 2008 12:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Smart investing should feel bad? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 28 May 2008 17:18:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It's no secret that compact discs are on the way out as the preferred method for distributing music, and their decline has continued to accelerate. According to Nielsen SoundScan, 500.5 million albums sold as CDs, cassettes, LPs and other formats were purchased last year, down 15 percent from 2006's total.

Including digital music download sales and music videos, music purchases were up 14% from 2006. What should investors be looking at here?

Perhaps paradoxically, I don't think digital music is the way to play this. The fast-growing innovator often lags that declining old-economy company in terms of stock market returns because investor sentiment can be overly negative. For instance, railroad stocks outperformed airplane stocks (and the broader market) by a wide margin, even as railroads lost their status as the major method of travel. The reason? Railroad stocks were beaten down so badly by the headlines about their demise that they became tremendously undervalued.

The music equivalent of the railroad is Handleman (NYSE: HDL), a stock that has frustrated bottom-fishers for years. The company manages the music category for retailers like Wal-Mart, and well-known value investors like Joseph Harrosh and Marty Whitman have accumulated stakes in the company, even as the stock has continued its decline.

The stock trades at a huge discount to its (probably overstated) book value, and has had trouble adapting to changing trends in the industry. But at its current price, it may be worth a look for contrarian investors who aren't afraid to own stocks that other people snicker at.

Album sales still a disaster for music retailers originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:13:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Will Robert Shiller be a good contrarian indicator? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 29 Aug 2007 10:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In his book The Future For Investors: Why the Tried and True Triumph Over the Bold and New, Jeremy Siegel outlines the paradox of growth: Growth does not necessarily lead to superior returns in the stock market. In January, I wrote a piece called Are newspapers the new railroads?, in which I discussed a fascinating statistic that I found in Siegel's book: Since 1957, railroad stocks have outperformed airlines, trucking, and the S&P 500.

Think about this: If you'd been there back in 1957, which would you have picked as the better investment? You, along with the vast majority of people, probably would have picked airlines. That's why railroads ended up being the better investment. Extremes in market sentiment often lead companies with poor prospects to be undervalued while companies with terrific prospects become overvalued.

How can you tell when this has happened -- when popular opinion has over-shifted against an industry or company? Oftentimes, you'll see a lot of brilliant investors who are unafraid to go against the trend moving in. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, legendary investor Carl Icahn explained his philosophy this way: "My investment philosophy, generally, with exceptions, is to buy something when no one wants it."

Continue reading News Corp makes an offer for Dow Jones -- the joys of contrarianism

News Corp makes an offer for Dow Jones -- the joys of contrarianism originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 May 2007 12:47:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The latest issue of Barron's featured the results of the weekly paper's stock-picking contest for college students. Derek Zoch, a student at Wharton, had a strategy that smacks of classic contrarianism in the tradition of David Dreman. He looked for stocks making the largest moves, up or down, on each day and then bet against them. This strategy (with, of course, a huge amount of luck) led him to a 34.94% gain in six months.

Does this strategy make sense? It might. Jim Cramer has said that the market never rewards the best news and enough, and never punishes the worst news badly enough. But contrarians like David Dreman would argue that it's just the opposite: the stocks that are disappointing investors the most are often the best bargains. And, as Zoch bet, stocks making great gains are likely to be overrated.

Here is a hardcore contrarian strategy that you could try: each day for 2 weeks, buy the biggest % loser on the NYSE, and short the biggest gainer. Hold each stock for six months, and then close all the positions and see if you beat the market. Interestingly, one might extrapolate from Cramer's remarks that his approach could be just the opposite.

A simple contrarian investment strategy originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 22 Apr 2007 20:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

• Bowater shares are down to $23 from a high of $59 in 2000 while Abitibi shares are down from $20 a decade ago to $2.80
• The combined company will be the third largest forest-products company in the US behind Weyerhaeuser (WY) and International The merged company will have 50% market share of the North American newsprint business
• The decline in newsprint demand might have bottomed as demand from emerging markets is beginning to offset the decline in mature markets. Newsprint demand grew 1% last year. However, North American demand decreased 7%
• By 2008, global newsprint demand could increase 2%, according to Citigroup

Bowater & Abitibi deal might point to industry bottom originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 02 Apr 2007 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Whenever I see a list of contrarian stock picks, I'm reminded of the Yogi Berra witticism about a popular restaurant: "Nobody goes there anymore because it's too crowded."

A list of stocks to buy because no one is interested in buying them seems paradoxical, but the methods that the Wall Street Journal used to compile its list of contrarian stocks [subscription required] are interesting: Stocks that have lagged the market for six months but have made sizable gains in the past week, have manageable debt levels, solid profits, negative analyst ratings, and PEG ratios below 1.5.

That's a pretty good screen for finding beaten down stocks, and I'm going to try to find a site that will allow me to input all of that into a stock screener. Anyone with any suggestions, please leave a comment.

And to learn more about contrarian investing, I recommend David Dreman's Contrarian Investment Strategies.

Following the herd on contrarian stocks? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 31 Mar 2007 13:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Based on an analysis of quarterly sector performance during the period 1995-2006, S&P 500 economic sectors that perform best in any given quarter tend to fare less well in the three months that follow. In contrast, groups that perform worst tend to improve their relative standing in the subsequent span.

So far this period, utilities and materials have been the best performers by a relatively wide margin. The laggards have been financials and consumer discretionary shares. If past trends hold true, it might make sense to shift sector allocations for the next three months away from shares in the winning sectors towards those in groups that finished at the bottom of the pack.

It's worth noting that this is a relative performance strategy. Some or all of the ten sectors could finish higher or lower next quarter, depending on what happens to the overall market.

Sector	Quarter-to-Date Return %
=================	====
Utilities	8.78
Materials	7.92
Telecom Services	4.80
Energy	2.07
Consumer Staples	0.99
Industrials	0.44
Health Care	0.24
=================	====
S&P 500	-0.08
=================	====
Information Technology	-1.02
Consumer Discretionary	-1.33
Financials	-3.86

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.

A contrarian sector strategy for the second quarter originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 29 Mar 2007 11:56:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Contrarian (noun), pronounced con.trar.i.an. : A person who takes a contrary position or attitude; specifically : an investor who buys shares of stock when most others are selling and sells when others are buying.

Turning things inside out, and upside down is basic to contrarian and value investing. In this article I will share my WOW Principal of investing.

WOW Principal origin: Observing how my wife manages our family I have been in awe. It's true: "a mother's work is never done." To express my amazement, I have exclaimed WOW often. MOM upside down spells WOW! There are many times that Mom's world is upside down, juggling three kids and an ever increasing number of commitments with spectacular efficiency. She is also an architect and my partner in our architecture practice. In my bio, I referred to my relationship with my wife as my best investment, and since we met many years ago, I have been collecting dividends.

So, it is with my wife in mind that the WOW Principal of investing came to be. It is a perfect fit with my investing style. Simply stated: If, after thorough analysis of an investment, you are not in awe of your findings (company data, news, trends and surprises) and you do cannot exclaim WOW! (double WOW is even better!), then it is not a worthy investment.

If however, the investment does reach WOW status, you are in business. I do not invest unless I think there is an amazing opportunity and any risk is understandable and acceptable. Good is not good enough, it must be a great opportunity, and the case must be very convincing.

When things are upside down or people's perspective is jaded, there may be a deep value opportunity and my interest is peaked. At the point of discovery is a moment that begins when I say "hmm," and stroke my beard. Then I spend time with my investigation and analysis. But I do not fork over any cash until I find the WOW factor(s). If you find yourself scratching your head and saying huh? instead of "Wow," move on!

Continue reading The 'WOW Principal' of Investing: Find winners like MRK, Petro-China

The 'WOW Principal' of Investing: Find winners like MRK, Petro-China originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 18 Sep 2006 12:11:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Shares in Merck & Co (NYSE: MRK) moved up past $40 for the first time in a long time last Wednesday, July 26. I bought some shares about 20 months ago at $32 after the stock tanked on the Vioxx (R) debacle. You could have bought in at just under $26, if you had perfect timing.

Now what? Should I stay or should I go? Does it have more upside or have I reached my objective return and now should sell? Most of the shares are in my Roth IRA so taxes are not an issue.

So my thinking on Merck went like this: Merck had been a well-managed profitable company for decades and was on sale. The company had been voted, by peers, as the top-managed company on the planet numerous times, made tons of money and was envied by all. The Vioxx (R) revelations tanked the stock. Contrarian that I am, I had to take a look. In addition to quality management, earnings, cash flow, and panic what did it have going for it? Try billions in cash reserves and a 5.5% dividend at the time.

What was the downside? Litigation for years, maybe for a decade plus.

Continue reading Me and my Merck: Should I keep it?

Me and my Merck: Should I keep it? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 31 Jul 2006 16:44:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Yes, Wal-Mart is down sharply this morning and yes, it was downgraded by Merill Lynch. Yes, it might go lower still.

Call me a contrarian -- I have been called worse -- but I think the stock is getting attractive. I want to buy stocks on sale.

Wal-Mart (WMT) is too big to stay out of the news and most of what we have heard the past year seems to have weighed down the stock. Its trailing P/E is slightly below the S&P average at 16.85. but that is nothing to get excited about.

What drew my attention to WMT is its incredibly low price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.62. (source, AOL Money & Finance). Other positives I see:

- WMT has a five year earnings-per-share (EPS) growth rate of just under 14%, a return-on-equity (ROE) of over 23% which is higher than their P/E, another good sign and a return-on-invested-capital (ROIC) of over 14%. It has a 1.4% dividend yield growing at 20% rate over the past five years and plenty of cash (about $7B)with no debt, manageable debt (thanks Stacey for pointing out my earlier mistake -- haste makes waste writing at 4:00 AM), so that yield is probably very secure.

Continue reading Wal-Mart downgraded, but getting tempting

Wal-Mart downgraded, but getting tempting originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 13 Jul 2006 18:43:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.