
Still, with a likely FY2009 revenue gain of 6-7%, I'm Reiterating my Buy rating for the company, first recommended on June 3, 2009 at a price of $46.42.
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Continue reading Newmont is still mining the right commodities
"Resource-rich, politically stable and increasingly prosperous, Chile is an attractive play on commodities and growing wealth in emerging markets," explains Mark Salzinger, editor of The Investor's ETF Report.
Chile is also a favorite investment position of Nicholas Vardy, editor of The Global Bull Market Alert, who notes, "Thanks to its fiscal prudence, its lack of a domestic housing bubble, and its sizeable wealth reserves, Chile has weathered the current global economic meltdown better than most countries."
Here, the two advisors assess the longer-term opportunity in iShares MSCI Chile (NYSE: ECH), an exchange-traded fund.
Let's look at the explosive jump in the price of copper, and then examine the underlying factors that could signal the beginning of a sell off:
Copper is often referred to as a bellwether commodity that reflects business activity in such industries as housing and autos. This past year, both industries have been beaten down, and so too has the price of copper. According to the Wall Street Journal (subscription required), nearby copper prices fell 6.40 cents to settle at $1.2530 per pound. The most active March contract fell 6.45 cents to $1.2810 per pound. The poor housing numbers recently released were just another catalyst in the price decline.
Copper, like many other commodities, has been in a liquidation phase where market participants are selling their inventories to raise cash. Traders have often looked to China for an indication that buying there will spark a rally. However, this did not happen. There was no follow through after a gain in the Chinese market last week.
Very much like the supply situation in oil, there is an 87,000 metric ton surplus of copper, when adjusted on a seasonal basis.
This post is part of a special report, A Dozen Ways to Play an Obama Building Boom.
Two advisors that specializes in income investing -- Mark Skousen and Nick Lanyi -- both turn to high-yielder, Southern Peru Copper (NYSE: PCU) as a contrarian play on building and infrastructure growth ahead.
Skousen, in his High Income Alert, he says, "Make no mistake, this is a contrarian play. But if you believe in buying straw hats in winter, PCU is an exceptional value at these levels."
"More than 2.9 billion pounds of copper are used in construction every year, primarily in plumbing and wiring, while electronic products use more than 1.9 billion pounds a year.
"Transportation equipment -- including cars, trains, planes and submarines -- uses more than 1 billion pounds a year.
"The manufacture of industrial equipment requires another 1 billion pounds annually. And consumer and general products, from cookware to church bells to pennies, require another 800 million pounds.
"Southern Peru operates the world's largest copper mine high in the Andes mountains, producing more than 800 million pounds of copper a year.
"Of course, the commodity bull market that was running at a full gallop in the first half of this year has stopped dead in its tracks. Copper prices are no exception. When building and manufacturing slow, so does the demand for the red metal.
Continue reading Southern Peru (PCU): Two income experts build gains in copper
"Weakness in commodities suggests a screaming sign of an overreaction; it's time to take another look at a high-quality, high-yielding commodity stocks such as Southern Copper (NYSE: PCU)," says global investing expert Nick Lanyi.
In his High Yield International, he says, "With mines in Mexico and Peru, Southern Copper ranks #1 in total copper reserves of any publicly traded company, making it almost a pure play on a rebound in the metal's price." Here's his contrarian outlook.
"Southern Copper has enough reserves to continue its current rate of production for the next 80 years without a single expansion or acquisition.
"With copper prices falling, the firm's earnings are taking a hit -- and the dividend has recently been cut. Now that this cut has already been factored into the shares, I think it's a better time to look at the stock than just a few weeks ago.
"Based on 2008 dividends, the stock yields 12.7% at the current price. Even if the dividend comes down more, I look for a yield of 8-9% over the next 12 months.
Continue reading Southern Copper (PCU): Mining for high returns
"Recent weakness in commodities is just a pause to breathe , not the beginning of the end," says Yiannis Mostrous in Vital Resource Investor. His favorite copper play? Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX).
"Most investors aren't able to grasp this commodities cycle's massive potential. The main reason is that few investors are willing to accept the big transformation that's taking place in several emerging market economies, led by China and India.
"We've been advocating this change for quite some time. And after several years of doing so, investors are more receptive. However, they're not totally convinced yet.
"This is the main reason this bull market in emerging markets and commodities has another strong leg up before it reaches all-time highs. But we're far from that point. Meanwhile, copper remains one of our favorite metals.
"Our long-standing recommendation to take advantage of copper's strength is Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold. Copper suffered from supply challenges along with investors' underestimation of its potential early in the year.
"There's no doubt about it: vital resources are in a bull market of gigantic proportions," note Yiannis Mostrous and Roger Conrad.
"The co-editors of Vital Resource Investor caution that "no market moves in a straight line, and in commodities, the action is often extremely violent." However, for long-term investors, they offer some favorites in iron ore, aluminum and copper.
"All commodity bull markets are ultimately gored by demand destruction, alternatives and new supply. But it will almost certainly be years before that happens to this one. And that means plenty of money will be made along the way.
"We're still extremely bullish on iron ore as the market remains in deficit and prices continue to rise. Chinese domestic supply has been falling and, if this continues, imports will make up the difference, thereby helping the miners.
"China consumes 51% of the world's iron supply. Portfolio holding Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO), the world's largest iron ore producer, will benefit from the shortage in iron ore supply.
"We favor aluminum in the industrial metals sector. We've been advocating aluminum for some time, and the market's finally going our way. Aluminum prices have been impacted by lack of available power in China and South Africa and higher alumina and bauxite prices.
This article is part of a 20 article special report on "Metals, miners and money".
Dan Sullivan, a specialist in relative strength rankings, maintains a position in Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold (NYSE: FCX) in his model portfolio. The editor of The Chartist explains, "The world's largest publicly traded copper company, Freeport-McMoRan operates large, long-lived and geographically diverse assets around the world.
"The company owns significant proven and probably reserves of copper, gold, and molybdenum and has an extensive portfolio of expansion and growth projects.
"The company conducts its operations primarily through its principal operating subsidiaries, PT Freeport Indonesia, Phelps Dodge, and Atlantic Copper. PT Freeport Indonesia's principal asset is the world-class Grasberg mine which was discovered in 1988.
"This mine contains the world's largest single copper reserve and the world's largest single gold reserve. It is also a 25% owner of PT Smelting, which operates a copper smelter and refinery in Gresik, Indonesia.
"Phelps Dodge is a fully integrated producer of copper and molybdenum, with mines and processing facilities in North and South America and Europe. Atlantic Copper operates a copper smelter and refinery in Huelva, Spain.
"The company's second-quarter profit surged year-over-year due to the acquisition of Phelps Dodge and increased metal pricing. Net income rose to $1.10 billion, up from $367 million in the year-ago period. Revenue also surged to $5.81 billion, from $1.43 billion last year."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com website features the latest investment commentary and favorite stock picks of the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
This article is part of a 20 article special report on "Metals, miners and money".
"The Fed's bailout of the mortgage markets has reignited fears of inflation and of a slow-motion meltdown of the dollar," says Mark Skousen, editor of Forecasts & Strategies.
"That makes now a good time to own mining stocks, particularly Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX), which made a very smart move in March when it bought Phelps Dodge for $26 billion. The purchase made Freeport the world's largest publicly-traded copper company.
"It now has a huge, long-lived, geographically diverse portfolio of mining assets. And the acquisition of Phelps is producing tens of millions of dollars in unexpected savings. The buy will result in an immediate 30% spike in Freeport's annual sales.
"With Freeport opening a new copper mine in Arizona ahead of schedule this year -- one that will produce at least 240 million pounds of copper per annum -- and the new company enjoying huge new economies of scale, expect this stock to continue its rapid run."
Continue reading Top resource ideas: Harmony (HMY) and Freeport (FCX)
This article is part of a special 20 article report on "Metals, miners and money".
"It wasn't that long ago -- in late 2003, to be exact -- when we were bumping up against the $400 ceiling in gold; and now we've barreled through $800," says Brien Lundin, editor of The Gold Newsletter, and host and opening speaker at the recent New Orleans Investment Conference.
Although he remains cautious on the near-term outlook -- and indeed, forecasts a correction from current levels -- he suggests, "Perhaps the reasons behind gold's rally don't matter -- and we need only consider the fact that it is rallying."
From a long-term perspective, he suggests, "The very fact that gold is rallying so strongly is telling us something about the geopolitical, economic, and/or investing scene. Does gold know something we don't?"
The gold and resource investing expert suggests, "Perhaps it's telling us that global liquidity is far deeper than we can yet understand. Maybe it's telling us that the worldwide move away from the dollar as a reserve currency is accelerating behind the scenes.
"Perhaps it's indicating that economic growth in Asia will continue, and is capable of thriving without the support of Western consumer demand.... Maybe gold is foreshadowing a geopolitical blow-up.
"Perhaps the metal is whispering that the housing crunch, with peaks in adjustable rate mortgage resets coming at the end of the year, will become worse than anyone yet fears. Or perhaps that there is some still unseen derivative or other economic crisis about to erupt.
Continue reading Top resource ideas: 'Does gold know something we don't?'
If you could buy only one commodity stock, what should it be? Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, long-standing experts in the natural resources sector, think that one stock should be BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP).
The editors of The Aden Forecast explain, "The hot Asian markets are keeping demand strong for commodities. Indeed, the commodity move has been gearing up, one by one. Some markets will be stronger than others at times, but they are all in a major rise with demand being the driving force, which makes this mega move even more powerful."
The advisors continue, "China and Asia in general have been booming for many years now. The slowing economy in the U.S. caused concern that the fiery growth in Asia would cool down. It certainly could with time, but so far there are no signs of this at all."
Meanwhile, they notes, demand for raw materials remains and 2007 may end up seeing China's economy expand at the fastest pace in 12 years. To benefit from this trend, the sisters says, "BHP Billiton has long been one of our favorites because it's the best way to stay invested in the whole raw materials sector."
They notes that Billiton is the world's largest mining organization, stating, "It's a leader in steel making, it's the world's third largest producer of copper and nickel, second largest exporter of coal, fourth largest producer of uranium... and the list goes on." They conclude, "So if you have to buy just one natural resource company, let it be BHP."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com features the latest investment ideas and market commentary from the financial newsletter community.
Resources expert Larry Edelson has just completed a six week tour of Asia; from his final stop in Dubai, he writes, "Gold is being gobbled up like it's going out of style."
The editor of Real Wealth notes, "In my 30 years in the gold market I have never seen the volume of gold trading and the lust for the precious yellow metal like I saw in Dubai." Here's his latest buys in the sector.
He explains, "The major fundamental forces behind high gold prices haven't changed. The U.S. dollar is very weak in the knees and inflation is rampant, despite what the government's numbers say."
He notes that the U.S. dollar continues to lose value against other major currencies. He points to both private and public debt problems as the root cause, along with troubles in the real estate sector and "political infighting" that is maaking foreign investors "think twice" about putting their money in the U.S.
He forecasts that the dollar's decline will continue, which in turn, will push up inflation. He notes, "All you have to do is look at your monthly bills and regular purchases."
To protect against inflation, he believes the best strategy is to invest in gold. And in this sector, he offers two new mining recommendations.
Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.
Taseko Mines Ltd. (ASE: TGB) is the favorite speculative play for 2007 from Tom Bishop, editor of BI Research. He notes, "After living hand to mouth for five or six years during lean copper and gold prices, Taseko bought the Gibraltar mine, which it picked up for a song when copper was down in the low $0.60/lb range.
"Today copper is around $3/lb, the mine is back into production and now its cash stash, including proceeds from a $30 million convertible, is steaming towards C$100 million. The company just added about 38% to its mineral reserves, which now stand at 256 million tons (equating to a 15-year mine life) grading 0.32% copper and 0.01% molybdenum.
Note the molybdenum alone adds over $20 million to revenues annually. The company is upgrading and expanding its Gibraltar mill/production facility, and will be moving to a higher grade softer ore part of the ore body in 2007. Therefore, with mill improvements I expect production to increase 20 to 30% this year and generate about $0.65 to $0.70 of cash flow, which is not bad for a company trading at $2.60.
Continue reading Top Picks 2007: Tom Bishop bets on copper gains for Taseko
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