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Avon's Stock Continues to Misbehave

The stock of Avon Products (AVP), first discussed here on May 6, 2009 at a price of $23.12, continues to misbehave in 2011, and that keeps the stand-aside in force.

Further, AVP has downtrended in bear-hug fashion for the last three months -- a bearish technical pattern -- and the sell/stop loss is close by at $24.

Concerning Avon's fundamentals, Avon should post a 4-5% 2011 revenue increase, after 2010's 4.8% rise, led by emerging market sales gains, including rises in Central/Eastern Europe and Latin America. However, AVP's China market is having difficultly with its new direct sales method, and that probably has prompted some institutional investors to hit the 'sell' button.

Continue reading Avon's Stock Continues to Misbehave

The Three Things That Will Drive Estee Lauder's Growth in 2010

The Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (EL) makes premium makeup, skin care, fragrances and hair care products and sells them through high end department stores, perfumeries, pharmacies, prestige salons and spas. Estee Lauder competes with other leading cosmetics companies such as L'Oreal, Revlon and Avon with its portfolio of well known brands like Aramis, Clinique, Aveda, La Mer and its flagship Estee Lauder brand.

Continue reading The Three Things That Will Drive Estee Lauder's Growth in 2010

Avon Products: For Now, Stand Aside

Avon (AVP) logoThe stock of Avon Products (AVP), first discussed here on May 6, 2009, at a price of $23.12, has meandered for the past three months at/near $29, and it might warrant a stand-aside view, for now.

Concerning Avon's fundamentals, Avon should post an impressive 2010 revenue increase of 6% to 9% led by emerging market sales gain, including Central/Eastern Europe and Latin America. Counter-intuitively, AVP's China market will likely underperform. Avon should also post a 3% to 5% revenue increase in 2011.

Continue reading Avon Products: For Now, Stand Aside

Allergan Second Quarter Earnings Preview

Allergan logoDrug manufacturer Allergan, Inc. (AGN) will be reporting its second quarter results on Monday, with analysts expecting to see an 8% earnings increase from the same period last year.

Analysts have forecast earnings of $0.81 for the quarter, versus $0.75 during the same period last year.

Allergan has managed to outpace analyst estimates for each of the past six quarters, and has not failed to at least match estimates since the first quarter of 2007.

Continue reading Allergan Second Quarter Earnings Preview

Avon Products: Sideways Action Poses Questions

Right now, the technicals for Avon Products (AVP), which I first wrote about on May 6, 2009 at a price of $23.12, are not lining up with its fundamentals.

Avon should post a healthy 2010 revenue increase of 7% to 10%, led by emerging market sales gain, including impressive advances in Central and Eastern European, as well as Latin America.

Despite the above, Avon's stock has meandered -- trading in a $28 to $36 range for about seven months. The stock also came close to triggering the sell/stop loss at $24.

Continue reading Avon Products: Sideways Action Poses Questions

Avon Products: An Overcorrection Creates an Opportunity

Avon Products (AVP), which I first wrote about on May 6, 2009, at a price of $23.12, has pulled-back with the market's retreat, but I still like the company and the stock. Here's why:

Avon remains the world leader in direct-marketed cosmetics, toiletries, fashion jewelry, and fragrances, with ample growth opportunities in Latin America, China, and Central/Eastern Europe.

Continue reading Avon Products: An Overcorrection Creates an Opportunity

Bare Escentuals Gets a Beautiful Deal

Since May 2007, the shares of Bare Escentuals (BARE) have had a hard time, going from $41.50 to a low of $3.66 (last March). But as the equities markets have rallied, so have the company's shares.

Now, the company has accepted a $18.20 buyout from Shiseido, which is the largest cosmetics company in Japan. The transactions comes to $1.7 billion and represents a juicy 43% premium over Thursday's stock price.

Continue reading Bare Escentuals Gets a Beautiful Deal

Avon encounters resistance near $33

Tech talk: Avon Product, Inc.'s (NYSE: AVP) restructuring is paying-off, but the stock has run into technical resistance at/near $33, so I'm not recommending the purchase of additional shares at this time.

Those investors who purchased AVP when first recommended on May 6, 2009 at a price of $23.12 should hold their shares.

Continue reading Avon encounters resistance near $33

Tupperware makes up for the sell-off, and then some

I guess Wall Street over did it a little bit, on the downside, with Tupperware earlier this year, driving shares down to about $11 in March. I caught the TUP train at $23.48 on April 28, 2009.

TUP is now at $38.10, good for a smooth 60% gain. And Tupperware's growth story remains intact: Tupperware will benefit from the U.S. 'frugal consumer' trend toward many, many more leftovers and fewer meals out. Hence, I'm Reiterating my Buy rating for Tupperware Brands Corporation (NYSE: TUP).

Continue reading Tupperware makes up for the sell-off, and then some

Wal-Mart stocks shelves with Hard Candy cosmetics

Hard Candy is coming to Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT), and I don't mean Jolly Ranchers. The high-end name in trendy cosmetics, famous for bringing unusual colors to ladies' palettes in the late 1990s, is now bringing a specially created line to the discount retailer.

Hard Candy products will hit shelves in 3,000 Wal-Mart stores next month, and will be available internationally by the spring. Products, from gold lipstick to bright green eyeliner, will range from $5 to $10 and target women between 18 and 35 (oooh! I'm just under the wire!).

Continue reading Wal-Mart stocks shelves with Hard Candy cosmetics

Cosmetic procedures up, boob jobs down ... and cash is still king

Experience is rewarded ... but only if you can't see it.

A poll of 1,000 women this month revealed that 63% in the 18-34 age range and 73% in the 35-49 age range are perfectly fine with medical procedures intended to hide their ages.

Economy be damned, it seems, if you have dark circles under your eyes or a bit of extra flab built up around your chin.

Continue reading Cosmetic procedures up, boob jobs down ... and cash is still king

Does the recession mean women are going au naturale?

Elizabeth Arden's (NASDAQ: RDEN) stock has been shellacked in the last couple of days, continuing a decline that began shortly after it reached a 52-week high of $21.79 in September 2008. RDEN has reached a nine-year low in price at $5.95.

The recent action in the stock should come as no surprise. With retail sales continuing to sour and mall traffic becoming more like Sunday services attendance on a beautiful summer day, it could hardly come as news that Elizabeth Arden would issue a negative earnings alert ahead of the company's second-quarter release of financial results scheduled for Friday.

Cosmetics and fragrances are some of the most discretionary of purchases with the widest range of price points. Consumers have the option of purchasing a less expensive brand or delaying the purchase until a better time. As a result, cosmetic products have reached a historically peak inventory level.

For Elizabeth Arden, those inventory numbers are further evidence of the earnings stress facing the company.

Continue reading Does the recession mean women are going au naturale?

Cheap Stocks: Estee Lauder Companies

This post is part of a series featuring bargain stocks that are worth a look now. See more Cheap Stocks.

In addition to being a crackerjack equities analyst, I'm also something of a makeup aficionado. Credit my upbringing for this; my mother grew up in the '50s, and even today, she is loathe to so much as check the mail without a full application of liquid eyeliner. So, as you might imagine, I'm quite familiar with Estee Lauder Companies (NYSE: EL).

While it's technically a consumer-goods company, you might have a perception of Estee Lauder as a peddler of upscale cosmetics -- in today's economy, high-priced eyeshadow is unarguably a discretionary expense worth cutting. However, EL's reach is probably broader than you realize. For example, the company owns MAC, a line that caters specifically to professional makeup artists and amateur makeup fetishists. No matter the economic climates, these two constituencies can be counted on to keep shelling out for blush.

Estee Lauder also boasts the lower-priced Clinique line, a staple of many women's' skin-care and cosmetics routines for decades. On the high end, the company sells fragrances by the likes of Tom Ford and Michael Kors -- two names favored by the kind of consumers who do still have disposable income to spare. Plus, its Bumble and bumble brand name is a favorite of professional hair stylists.

Continue reading Cheap Stocks: Estee Lauder Companies

Now, younger adult customers are starting to call on Avon

Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. With this in mind, Avon is worth an evaluation.

For decades a door-to-door company, Avon (NYSE: AVP) has stepped into the globalization and digital ages, and the initial progress reports are positive.

Avon is the midst of a restructuring aimed at increasing efficiency and widening the company's sales venues. In its most recent quarter, Avon's North American region was a laggard, but its international business performed well, registering a 16% increase in sales, with double-digit gains from Central/Eastern Europe, and an impressive 29% rise in China. Further, in general, analysts were pleased with AVP's emerging market performance, citing brand building gains and an ability to attract much-sought, younger-adult women. As a result, AVP is on-track to meet analysts' 7-9% revenue gain for F2008.

Direct selling (5.3 million representatives) continues to be AVP's base, but catalogs, mall kiosks, a day spa, and a web site create a diverse retail presence.

All the while, Avon has also reduced its costs by initiating manufacturing operations in lower-cost regions of the world, and via sales force productivity increases. The company's expanded product base (cosmetics, fragrances, toiletries, jewelry, apparel, and home furnishings) is succeeding at widening its brand appeal across categories. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for AVP are $2.16/$2.57.

Continue reading Now, younger adult customers are starting to call on Avon

Target moving into high-end women's cosmetics?

Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) is a retailer that's been known to find and feed customer niches better than any other discount retailer. From its bright store colors to trendy and chic items in several departments, the retailer has shown Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) that it can indeed compete. And, very well.

One of the more interesting product niches that's been explored recently has been higher-end women's cosmetics. When six beauty products rack up a retail bill of more than $200, you know there's something to be celebrated. No longer are Dillard's Inc. (NYSE: DDS) and Macy's Inc. (NYSE: M) the exclusive way many women buy those extremely lucrative cosmetic products with the hefty profit margins. Nope, Target's moving into the arena aggressively from all appearances.

Target is now stocking upper-end cosmetic brands like Clarins, Kiehl's, Origins, Bare Escentuals and Bumble and Bumble. Although the retailer's move was studied this past Tuesday, it certainly was no April Fool's joke. But do these brands care that the positioning Target will provide will undermine the premium brand luxury awareness and hefty prices at department store partners?

Many of these brands say they have no relationship with Target; therefore, Target's source may be the gray market. They are free to do that, but perhaps Target is just testing the waters of luxury cosmetics before making an official plunge in most of its national stores. Not so strangely, the experiment could easily work with Target's unique position in the market.

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Last updated: February 11, 2012: 11:36 AM

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