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USDA's Crop Report Signals Higher Food Prices

cornHere it is in a nutshell: Prices of grains and cotton have skyrocketed year to date. The United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) report released Thursday stated that corn and wheat prices have doubled in the past year. Soybeans were up 50% and cotton was up 155%, as reported in the Wall Street Journal.

What has caused these sharp increases? The key mover has been exports. China, India and countries in the Mideast are stockpiling grains over fears that they will not have enough to feed their people. Corn in storage fell 15% on March 1. Corn has been hit doubly hard because 40% of it is used for ethanol production and a large amount goes for livestock feed.

Continue reading USDA's Crop Report Signals Higher Food Prices

Crisis in Japan Creates More Demand for Commodities

In many parts of Japan, food products jumped. In some areas residents were told not to leave their homes. That alone is enough to create a fearful and hoarding mentality. Traders on the U.S. commodity exchanges didn't take long to work out how to play this. Pretty much across the board, prices rose.

Here are a few late prices:
  • WTI crude was up $3.67 per barrel to $101.67. Brent crude rose $2.10 per barrel to $110.62.
  • In the grain market, June wheat futures rose 48-2 cents per bushel to $7.10 per bushel.
  • Corn futures were up the 30 cent limit to $6.46 per bushel.

Continue reading Crisis in Japan Creates More Demand for Commodities

Commodities Have Been Clobbered over the Past Week

cottonExcept for the safe haven of U.S. treasuries and the U.S. dollar, most other commodities are getting slaughtered in the wake of the Japanese crisis.

Here are some prices of nearby contracts compared to five days ago:

  • WTI crude is trading at $97.68 per barrel, down from $105.
  • Wheat is at $6.89 per bushel, down for $7.89.

Continue reading Commodities Have Been Clobbered over the Past Week

Comfort Zone Investing: Bubbles Always Burst

woman blowing a bubble - comfort zone investingIn the 1630's, it was tulips. More specifically, it was Semper Augustus, a tulip of extraordinary beauty; deep, deep blue with a band of white and touches of crimson flares. In its day, it was the must have thing. There was one man who owned the dozen flowers known to exist. He was offered the equivalent of one year's annual income from a wealthy merchant for one bulb. He turned it down.

Tulip prices increased throughout the decade as more speculators got into the game. In 1633, a farmhouse was traded for three rare bulbs. By 1636 any tulip could be sold for extraordinary sums. Futures markets started. Trades were made in fields or taverns, between farmers and merchants. Some bulbs were bought and sold 10 times in a day. One father left his seven children an inheritance of 70 tulips. One sold for the all-time record price of 5,200 guilders.

Then, one day in 1637 everyone decided to stop playing. No buyers showed up at the local tulip auction in Haarlem. Within days, panic started, then spread. Tulips that sold for 5,000 guilders soon went for less than 50. (Source: Tulipomania by Mike Dash)

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Bubbles Always Burst

Cotton Closes Above $2 per Pound as Market Remains in Chaos

The cotton market is in a state of chaos. On Friday, March cotton on the ICE exchange closed at $2.1102 per pound, up the 7 cent daily limit, the Financial Times reported. The market opened limit up at $2.1102. That means that you cannot buy cotton even if you wanted to. The market is frozen.

Commodities are much different from stocks. Commodities are a zero sum game. Contracts usually last for three months. At the end of the three months, the longs take delivery from the shorts who deliver their cotton, and zero contracts are left.

Continue reading Cotton Closes Above $2 per Pound as Market Remains in Chaos

Higher Commodity Prices Are Grabbing Your Money

This year get ready to open your wallet wider and expect higher credit card bills for the basics like food, clothing and energy. You are probably wondering what is going on. While you weren't paying much attention, the price raw commodities surged in 2010. Corn, sugar, wheat, cotton, coffee and soybeans prices soared last year, as reported in the Wall Street Journal.

A confluence of factors pushed prices up. We had and still have demand explosion from China and India. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's monthly food index which monitors a basket of commodities including meat, dairy and sugar rose for the sixth straight month to a record.

Continue reading Higher Commodity Prices Are Grabbing Your Money

Higher Cotton Prices Will Push Up Apparel Costs in 2011

We can expect higher apparel prices next year, according to Investors.Com. The supply/demand factor in raw cotton will be a key mover. Cotton futures hit a 140- year high earlier this month. Apparel manufacturers have yet to deal with the spike in prices. Many companies have not purchased their supply of cotton and are hoping that prices will come down. That may be wishful thinking. Analyst Tracy with FBR Capital said: "There is still an underlying supply and demand problem for cotton. Cotton should stay at elevated levels."

The second big factor coming to bear on the apparel industry is the rising inflation in China. Labor costs have risen 20% to 25%. In addition, shipping costs are also higher.

Continue reading Higher Cotton Prices Will Push Up Apparel Costs in 2011

Gold Climbs to Yet Another Record High

gold rallyGold prices have marched to a new high of $1,422.45 per troy ounce in London. This marks the fourth day of the gold rally.

The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) cited that the prime mover was continued worry over European sovereign debt defaults.Traders and investors are riding the bull higher and higher. To help the gold along, the U.S. dollar is weaker, sparking a rally in key commodities like oil and grains. Cotton is also up again.

Continue reading Gold Climbs to Yet Another Record High

Bernanke Says He Does Not Want to Create Inflation

BernankeReuters quoted Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke as saying: "We're not in the business of trying to create inflation. Our purpose is to provide additional stimulus to help the economy recover and to avoid potentially additional disinflation, which I think we'll all agree could also be worrisome."

Bernanke claims that inflation is below the Fed's 2% target. That's hogwash! Sure if you use the "core" CPI, which leaves out food and energy, that may be the case. Not to worry.

Continue reading Bernanke Says He Does Not Want to Create Inflation

How Did Commodities Do in October?

One of the broadest measures for commodity prices is the 19-commodities Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index. For October, the index was up 4.8% after an 8.5% gain in September, as reported in Investors.com.

Sugar and cotton started the trend, rising more than 20% each. Corn was up 17% and arabica coffee rose 11%.

Continue reading How Did Commodities Do in October?

Chaos in the Cotton Market: Hedges Cost Merchants and Farmers Billions

cotton hedges Here is a story about hedges gone awry. It involves cotton farmers and cotton merchants, both of whom use the futures markets to hedge their product.

A hedge is a very simple tool. Let's say a farmer's cost for growing his cotton is 50 cents per pound. Now let's say the futures contract for December is 60 cents per pound. The farmer decides to sell December cotton contracts at 60 cents against his crop, even though it is not harvested yet. In normal times, he would deliver his cotton to the exchange at 60 cents and pocket the 10 cents per pound profit. Each penny equals $500, so he made $5,000.

Continue reading Chaos in the Cotton Market: Hedges Cost Merchants and Farmers Billions

Shortage of Cotton in China Drives Prices to Near Record High

China is the world's biggest importer of cotton. Last week, the U.S. department of Agriculture identified a "severe shortage" of Cotton in China. That was the trigger for a buying spree in cotton like no other, the Financial Times reported. "We're just seeing blow-offs here that nobody can imagine," Herman Kohlmeyer, with brokers Michael J Nugent told the paper.

The buying frenzy started on China's Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange where prices shot up to $1.60 per pound. That move set off the rally in New York's ICE Exchange electronic trading, the FT reported. Prices shot up the 4 cent limit to $1.1487, just shy of the record of $1.1720 per pound set in 1995.

Continue reading Shortage of Cotton in China Drives Prices to Near Record High

Cotton in Short Supply Drives Prices Higher

cotton: short supplyWhere is the cotton? Cotton inventories monitored by ICE Futures U.S. have plummeted 96%. This is noteworthy because the U.S. is the world's largest cotton exporter.

Textile buyers are not waiting for the next crop. They are buying now. This has caused a sharp rally in the cotton market. Nearby October ICE cotton futures spiked to 82.36 cents per pound, up 1.68 cents. Since January 2009, cotton has risen from 50 cents per pound to a high of 84.94 cents in 2010 (each 1 cent equals $500).

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that farmers will harvest 18.3 million bales in the 2010-2011 marketing year, up from a two-decade low of 12.2 million a year earlier. Global production will rise 13% to 116 million bales, according to the USDA.

Continue reading Cotton in Short Supply Drives Prices Higher

Cotton price spike mystifies traders, prompts inquiry

cottonAdd another case study to the controversy over speculators and market manipulation.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating whether cotton prices were 'artificially inflated' in early March, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday (subscription required). The March 4 price spiked from about 70 cents per pound to an intra-day high of $1.09 and closed at 93.1 cents.

In Wednesday morning trading, cotton rose about four-tenths of one cent to 70.070 cents per pound.

The Journal reported that the price spike in early March was unusual and baffled traders because cotton inventories were at their highest level in four decades, towel and fabric demand was weakened by the housing slump, and global supplies were high.

On the other side of argument, one which argues that market forces set the price, some cotton merchants themselves were trading aggressively; a little-used exchange rule suddenly required merchants to unwind sell orders; and financial investors, including pension and hedge funds, started to enter the market, which generated an eight-fold jump February 19-26 in net buying, The Journal reported, citing CFTC data.

Continue reading Cotton price spike mystifies traders, prompts inquiry

Gas prices: Corn is not a free market answer

Our failure to prioritize alternate fuel development over the past 20 years is showing up in more places than just the gas pump. This year, experts anticipate a huge reallocation of U.S. acreage from soybeans and cotton to corn, yet the price of corn-related products will continue to climb.

Acres planted in corn come mostly at the expense of soybeans, another hugely important crop. As our soybean inventory dwindles, look for increased prices in this market as well.

This is bad news in several ways. Many argue ethanol produced from corn has a negative energy value (NEV); i.e., it requires more energy to produce than it supplies.
The ethanol produced is more expensive than petroleum. And, worst, we are allocating the very best of our cropland to grow fuel crops, while other plants that could take advantage of marginal land remain underdeveloped.

Most of us remember President Bush's famous reference to switchgrass, a hearty grass that thrives in poor soil and produces energy fourfold what it requires to cultivate, yielding 1.5 times that of corn per acre. Another candidate, the jatropha bush, is already used to power rail traffic between Mumbai and Delhi in India. Like switchgrass, the bush can grow in poor soil and yields biomass easily converted into a biodesiel fuel.

While most of the world cannot grow corn or, like Brazil, sugar cane, crops such as switchgrass and jatropha could provide struggling economies with cash crops to aid in their development, while at the same time helping to solve the world's fuel crunch and diversify its sourcing.

Growing corn on our best land squanders our natural resources. How long will a free market support such inefficiency?

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