In another sign that the credit crunch has not disappeared, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey received no bids from investment banks to underwrite a taxable note offering.

The Port Authority was trying to sell $300 million worth of three-year notes, backed by revenue streams, Bloomberg News reported. The Port Authority operates airports, river crossings, and certain transit systems in the New York metropolitan area and has a strong credit rating. The agency is also rebuilding the World Trade Center site, including the new Freedom Tower.

Economist David H. Wang was apoplectic about the failed offering. "This is unbelievable," Wang said. "It's a ridiculous situation, frankly, and something has to be done to free-up these credit markets. This is the financial equivalent of Warren Buffett not being able to get a $20 million loan."

State, cities, and other taxing districts have had trouble selling bonds through advertised bidding, after institutional investors pared-back their appetite for fixed-income securities -- and just about every other asset class -- as the financial crisis intensified in September. In tandem, investment banks have balked at bidding for certain debt, sensing insufficient client demand, Wang said.

Banking analyst Meredith Whitney is credited with questioning assets on bank balance sheets given the collapse in the real estate market.

Taking advantage of a complete lack of information, Ms. Whitney triggered a massive collapse of trust in an industry by claiming that mortgage-backed securities were worth far less than what the market had perceived.

While she may have had a basis for her claims, her assessment was more sensational than factual. Mortgage-backed securities are quite complex instruments whereby loans are sliced, diced and packaged for sale to a global market.

With maturities extending 30 years into the future, it is unreasonable and unfair to assume that paybacks, even with high default rates will amount to what is currently priced into the market.

The lack of understanding of the underlying security or loans at the individual level has created uncertainty that has yet to be resolved.

For fans of the original "Star Wars" movie, think of the weakness in terms of attacking the Death Star. That one hole was exploited (we can debate the merits of doing so later) by Ms. Whitney and those like her.

Once again, Dow 8,000 has come back into focus.

For those investors who may not follow indices closely, the 8,000 level has a psychological but not technical support, the latter of which measures such things as the number of investors who are buying / selling, whether investors are committing more money to the market etc.

Even so, right now, a battle is taking place between the bulls and the bears: the bears argue the worst economic news stemming from the financial crisis is yet to come; the bulls argue that the worst news is behind us, and that government stimulus, fiscal and monetary, will get the U.S. economy moving again.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Wednesday closed below 8,000 at 7,997. If the bears can keep the Dow below 8,000 and then push it through 7,800, then 7,600, it will not be a pleasant time for investors.

Let's do a condensed, cross-methodology analysis to see if we can arrive at an informed investment decision / conclusion regarding where the Dow is headed, near-term.

In the quarters ahead, new autos may not be the only inventory item piling up.

A 'really big ticket item' -- new commercial airplanes -- may start piling up, as well. Boeing and Airbus may end up with as many as 200 new planes without buyers in 2009 because airlines are unable to obtain funds to pay for them, due to the credit crunch.

In the second half of 2008, banks and other sources of capital decreased lending to airlines -- and to just about everyone else, it seems -- on concerns the loans won't be paid back. Other banks are decreasing lending primarily as a means of rebuilding damaged balance sheets.

The lending cutback may create a funding gap of about $65 billion at Boeing next year, and a $20 billion gap at Airbus. Boeing Capital Corp., the airplane manufacturing giant's financing unit, is expected to make $1 billion in loans to customers in 2009.

Policy makers and bank officials are hoping it's just a Monday 'pause that refreshes.'

Short-term interests notched a mixed day on Monday, as the London rate for three-month loans in dollars declined for the 24th consecutive day, dropping another 6 basis points to 2.24%.

However, the three-month rate is still 124 basis points above the U.S. Federal Reserve's target interest rate. Further, the five-year average for the three month rate is 22 basis points. In addition, the overnight rate, or LIBOR, rose 2 basis points to 0.35%.

Also, the difference between what banks and the U.S. Treasury pay to borrow dollars for three months, the TED spread, fell another 6 basis points to 170 basis points, which is down from 387 basis points on October 10.

However, the TED spread was 87 basis points before the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, and the current rate is still 159 basis points above the 11-basis-point, five-year average.

More progress on the credit market front.

The London rate for three-month loans in dollars declined for the 20th consecutive day, dropping another 10 basis points to 2.29%. However, the three-month rate is still 129 basis points above the U.S. Federal Reserve's target interest rate. Further, the five-year average for the three month rate is 22 basis points.

Also, the difference between what banks and the U.S. Treasury pay to borrow dollars for three months, the TED spread, fell another 9 basis points to 174 basis points, which is down from 383 basis points on October 10.

However, the TED spread was 87 basis points before the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, and the current rate is still 163 basis points above the 11-basis-point, five-year average.

Economist Peter Dawson said credit markets have notched another good week. "It was another week of progress, with rates consistently heading lower, but more work remains," Dawson said. "Bank confidence is increasing, but it's not where it should be. More must be done by governments to remove toxic assets from banks and from the financial system to encourage more banks to lend."

More progress on the credit market front. The initiative by major central banks to increase the supply of dollars globally to free up credit continued to move rates in the right direction early Wednesday -- down -- as rates fell to their lowest level since the failure of Lehman Brothers on September 15.

The London rate for three-month loans in dollars declined for the 18th consecutive day, dropping another 20 basis points to 2.51%. However, the three-month rate is still 151 basis point above the U.S. Federal Reserve's target interest rate. Further, the five-year average for the three month rate is 22 basis points.

Also, the difference between what banks and the U.S. Treasury pay to borrow dollars for three months, the TED spread, fell another 19 basis points to 192 basis points, which is down from 383 basis points on October 10.

Still, the TED spread was 87 basis points before the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. Economist Peter Dawson said the difference between current credit market rates and the historical averages indicate both progress and how much work remains.

Another day of progress in the credit markets. The London rate for three-month loans in dollars declined for the 17th consecutive day, dropping another 15 basis points to 2.71%.

Meanwhile, the London interbank overnight rate, or LIBOR, dipped 1 basis point to 0.38%. Also, the difference between what banks and the U.S. Treasury pay to borrow dollars for three months, the TED spread, fell 12 basis points to 211 basis points, which is down from 364 basis points on October 10.

Economist Peter Dawson said Tuesday the only thing better than falling gasoline prices is a drop in overnight interest rates. "Again, you have to like this progress. Central bank infusions of dollars continue to loosen credit markets, which is one part in solving this financial crisis," Dawson said. "Also, look for continued downward movement in bank-to-bank rates, if the [U.S. presidential] election goes as expected and Obama wins, on the belief it's a vote of confidence for policies put in place to end the financial crisis."

According to Gallup.com, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, led U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, 55%-44% in the organization's final tracking poll.

More progress on the credit market front.

The initiative by major central banks to increase the supply of dollars globally to free-up credit continued to move rates in the right direction early Monday -- down -- as rates fell to their lowest level since the failure of Lehman Brothers on September 15.

The London rate for three-month loans in dollars declined for the 16th consecutive day, dropping another 17 basis points to 2.86%. The three-month rate for the euro, the Euribor, also fell 3 basis points to 4.74%. Rates also fell in Asia.

Meanwhile, the London interbank overnight rate, or LIBOR, decreased 2 basis points to 0.39%. In addition, the difference between what banks and the U.S. Treasury pay to borrow dollars for three months, the TED spread, fell to 224 basis points, which is down from 364 basis points on October 10.

Short-term rates, including overnight rates, are key sources of cash for corporations and other large institutions, which use the cash to pay suppliers, make payroll, roll over debt etc. Hence, very high overnight and short-term rates will discourage corporations from conducting business, restricting commerce and slowing the economy, economists say.

The global financial crisis will not be resolved in a week, or a month, or even a quarter, economists generally agree. Nevertheless, notch an impressive week of liquidity improvement for the credit markets.

The initiative by major central banks to increase the supply of dollars globally to free-up credit continued to move rates in the right direction Friday -- down -- as private banks were encouraged by U.S. Federal Reserve commercial paper buying.

The London rate for three-month loans in dollars declined for the15th consecutive day, dropping another 16 basis points to 3.03%. Meanwhile, the London interbank overnight rate, or LIBOR, plunged another 41 basis points to 0.33% -- 59 basis points below the Fed's target rate.

Short-term rates, including overnight rates, are key sources of cash for corporations and other large institutions, which use the cash to pay suppliers, make payroll, roll over debt etc. Hence, very high overnight and short-term rates will discourage corporations from conducting business, restricting commerce and slowing the economy, economists say.

Short-term interest rates continue their downward trek.

The effort by major central banks to increase the supply of dollars globally to free-up credit continued to move rates in the right direction Thursday -- down -- as private banks were encouraged by the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and $120 billion in new swap lines with emerging market central banks.

The London rate for three-month loans in dollars declined for the 14th consecutive day, dropping another 23 basis points to 3.19%. Rates also fell in Asia: the three-month rate for Hong Kong, the HIBOR, dropped 15 basis points to 3.39%.

Meanwhile, the London interbank overnight rate, or LIBOR, plunged another 41 basis points to 0.73% - - its lowest level since January 2001.

Short-term rates, including overnight rates, are key sources of cash for corporations and other large institutions, which use the cash to pay suppliers, make payroll, roll over debt etc. Hence, very high overnight and short-term rates will discourage corporations from conducting business, restricting commerce and slowing the economy, economists say.

The U.S. Treasury and FDIC are said to be close to agreement on a plan that would have the U.S. government guarantee mortgages of millions of distressed homeowners.

The plan, which could place as many as three million homeowners in affordable mortgages, would require lenders to restructure mortgages based on the borrower's ability to repay. In exchange, banks / lenders would receive a federal guarantee that the loan would be repaid; program guarantees are estimated at $500 billion.

Program goal: Address toxic asset source

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Thursday a Treasury / FDIC or comparable plan is needed because to-date too few lenders have refinanced terms for preventable foreclosures, creating a steady stream of foreclosures into the financial system pipeline.

"They'll be little improvement in the toxic asset situation until we address the source of toxic assets, which is foreclosures," Wang said. "It's an economic imperative that we do this."

A year ago, few in the currency market would have predicted this stunning reversal in the flow of capital.

Despite being the nation that's likely to bear the largest economic and fiscal costs -- including a huge increase in its budget deficit and national debt -- from the global financial crisis, institutional investors are turning to the U.S. dollar in a flight-to-safety that economists say shows few signs of ending soon.

Investors flee to the dollar

That's right: you read correctly -- investors are turning to the dollar as a safe haven. Despite a decade of budget and trade deficits that drove the dollar to records lows. Despite an uncertain (at best) immediate economic outlook (the U.S. will be oh-so-fortunate to experience only a mild recession). Despite disagreement in the nation over the best way to pay for the many rescues / interventions needed to end the crisis. Despite the uncertainties presented by the upcoming U.S. Presidential / Congressional election. Despite its inadequate infrastructure and underdeveloped industrial base.

Despite all of the above, institutional investors abroad want: dollars. Money is flowing out of emerging markets and into the dollar -- so much that the major central banks may very well have to intervene repeatedly to support emerging market currencies to prevent further global financial system destabilization. Institutional investors are also flocking to Japan's yen, due to that country's relatively lower exposure to toxic assets.

If the stock market is the thermometer of the economy, then the credit market is the life blood. And lately there are signs that the U.S. economy's circulatory system is improving.

Sales of commercial paper have increased considerably since the U.S. Federal Reserve launched its Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) to jump-start the corporate, short-term lending market, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday. Commercial paper sales totaled $67.1 billion on Monday, October 27, the first day of CPFF operation, and $41.6 billion Tuesday, compared with last week's daily average of $6.7 billion.

CPFF is working, so far

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Wednesday he likes what he's seeing regarding commercial paper flows this week.

"This is very encouraging, maybe our most important credit data point since the financial crisis started. The Fed's commercial paper facility is having its intended effect. If the trend continues, it points to a near-normalization of this critical market. Interest rates will be higher, but the fact that money is flowing is another positive step."

Short-term rates, including rates for commercial paper, are key sources of cash for corporations and other large institutions, which use the cash to pay suppliers, make payroll, roll over debt, etc.

The thaw in short-term interest rates continues.

The effort by major central banks to increase the supply of dollars globally to free-up credit continued to move rates in the right direction Wednesday -- down -- as private banks were encouraged by commercial paper purchases by the U.S. Federal Reserve and a likely interest rate cut later today.

The London rate for three-month loans in dollars declined for the 13th consecutive day, dropping 5 basis points to 3.42%. The three-month rate for the euro, the Euribor, also fell 2 basis points to 4.83%, and the three-month rate for Hong Kong dollars, the Hibor, dropped 30 basis points to 3.54%.

Short-term rates, including overnight rates, are key sources of cash for corporations and other large institutions, which use the cash to pay suppliers, make payroll, roll over debt etc. Hence, very high overnight and short-term rates will discourage corporations from conducting business, restricting commerce and slowing the economy, economists say.