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Credit card defaults are up -- is the consumer maxed out?

Posted Sep 16th 2009 12:20PM by Connie Madon (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Consumer experience, Economic data, Personal finance, Small business, Financial Crisis

It's clear that we are in the midst of a credit bubble that has burst. The fallout is being felt throughout the economy but is most prominent in credit card defaults, which are rising and will continue to rise, according the leading analysts.

Two of the biggest credit card issuers are getting clobbered. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) saw its defaults rise to 14.54% in August from 13.81% in July. Citigroup (NYSE: C) saw defaults rise to 12.14% in August from 10.03% in July. Following close behind was JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) at 8.76%, up from 7.92%.

Continue reading Credit card defaults are up -- is the consumer maxed out?

Credit bubble warning & Merrill forcasts oil price drop

Posted Oct 2nd 2008 1:18PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Forecasts, Consumer experience, Rants and raves, , Personal finance, Commodities, Oil, Recession

Oil prices are significantly down from the summer high of $147 per barrel. Wednesday October 1, New York's main contract, light sweet crude for November delivery, lost $2.11 to close at 98.53 dollars a barrel.

Now Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) is slashing its outlook for oil prices. Not only do their analysts believe that oil will drop below $90 a barrel next year, but they add that there is a possibility it may drop below $50. Demand is shrinking and it's hard to call a bottom.

Given all the turmoil in the financial markets this year and with a looming "consumer credit bubble" being discussed in most business publications, it would be very advisable to use any savings from lower oil prices to pay down credit card debt.

Continue reading Credit bubble warning & Merrill forcasts oil price drop

Private equity: a house of cards?

Posted Jun 19th 2007 2:20PM by Tom Taulli (RSS feed)
Filed under: Private equity

Back in the 1980s, private equity maestro Ted Forstmann railed against the use of Mike Milken's junk bonds. He thought they were too risky and that the markets would eventually implode. He even wrote op-ed pieces in the Wall Street Journal (subscription only) about this. And, yes, he was eventually proved right.

Interesting enough, there's a piece in this week's WSJ that provides some warning bells for the current state of private equity. The author is Steven Rattner, who is the managing principal of Quadrangle Group LLC.

Like Forstmann, Rattner is very concerned about the high degree of leverage in Wall Street's dealmaking.

He points to the small yield spreads on junk bonds, the subprime meltdown, and easy terms (known as "covenant light" loans).

What's more, keep in mind that it's fairly common for private equity firms to pay out huge dividends so as to magnify returns. Of course, this means more and more debt.

Basically, the credit markets are not pricing risk properly. So, when things start to go sidewise, it could be a big shock to the financial system.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 05:54 PM

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