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American jobs, Chinese tires or trade war?

The Obama administration has announced that it is imposing tariffs on Chinese tire imports. The three-year plan will be have 35% tariffs the first year, 30% tariffs the second year, and 25% tariffs the third year.

This is good news for U.S. tire manufacturers and bad news for Chinese tire makers. American consumers will pay more for tires over the next three years than they would if they could buy cheap Chinese tires, but it will be a benefit for U.S. big labor and domestic tire makers as their products will be more competitive.

Continue reading American jobs, Chinese tires or trade war?

Cramer on BloggingStocks: The seductive pull of the early cycle

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer is seeing signs of a coming boom, but he's still being cautious here.

If you had to define the early cycle, if you had to outline what stocks should be soaring coming out of a recession into a boom and which ones should be faltering, you would have to say the action in this market in the last month is the quintessential behavioral pattern.

What are the components of the early cycle? First, it's the homebuilders. As is typical coming out of a recession, the stocks precede the bottom of housing. That's exactly what's happening with the lowest permits and highest affordability and best mortgage rates and massive inventory. Everywhere, except on Wall Street reporting, the bottom is bursting out. When you read the lead story in the Sunday Philadelphia Inquirer, and it is all about the thousands of prospective homebuyers heading south to pick up condos and homes for half of what they were worth two years ago -- or even less -- and you know that virtually no one has broken ground in the Sunshine State in a year, you can bet that the bottom's actually behind us. This housing market has wiped out all but the most stable private builders and even the public ones are merging as we know from Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take) and Centex (NYSE: CTX) (Cramer's Take). So, in the next cycle, you can see some profitability developing year over year even though the new homes don't have much margin because the foreclosed homes next door are going for a song. And don't believe this won't change the dynamic of future foreclosures. In most areas, rent is higher than the interest on mortgages, so you will find that second or third job needed to stay in your home. The incentive structure's radically different than a year ago.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: The seductive pull of the early cycle

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: DAI, GT, DB, FIATY, TXN ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • Goldman upgraded shares of Daimler (NYSE: DAI) to Buy from Neutral as it believes the company's restructuring and greater visibility on its outlook could be positive for the stock.
  • JP Morgan upgraded shares of Goodyear Tire (NYSE: GT) and Cooper Tire (NYSE: CTB) to Overweight from Neutral on expectations that industry volumes will improve in the coming quarters.
  • Friedman Billings upgraded Websense (NASDAQ: WBSN) following the company's better than expected preliminary Q1 results. The firm maintains a $17 target on shares.
  • Ruby Tuesday (NYSE: RT) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc.
  • Portfolio Recovery (NASDAQ: PRAA) was raised to Buy from Neutral at SunTrust.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: DAI, GT, DB, FIATY, TXN ...

The week in preview: Eye on Marvel, KBR, First Solar, Deckers and more

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected the parade of earnings declines to continue into the final week of February, with Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. (NYSE: MSO), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD), Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN), Macy's Inc. (NYSE: M), DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. (NYSE: DWA), Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), Royal Bank Of Canada (NYSE: RY), Del Monte Foods Co. (NASDAQ: DLM), Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS), Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO), Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB), RadioShack Corp. (NYSE: RSH), and H.J. Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ) all expected to post lower earnings for the most recent quarter. Office Depot Inc. (NYSE: ODP), Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS), and Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: CTB) are expect to have swung to a loss.

Continue reading The week in preview: Eye on Marvel, KBR, First Solar, Deckers and more

The week in preview: Expectations remain high for energy and oil

The focus of last week's preview was on oil and energy companies, and we saw that big oil had a good week, reporting better-than-expected results and record profits driven by high prices in the third quarter. Energy-related companies are well represented again this week and expectations in general remain high.

Early in the week, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial anticipate that the big earnings gainers will include EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG), Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), and Cimarex Energy Co. (NYSE: XEC), which are expected to post profits of $2.24 per share (up 64.7% from a year ago), $1.48 per share (up 52.7%) and $2.26 per share (up 61.1%) respectively. All three of them have offered positive surprises in recent quarters, and analysts on average recommend buying EOG and Anadarko. Other expected big earnings gainers early in the week include Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE: FST), Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD), Comstock Resources Inc. (NYSE: CRK), and MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA). The earnings of phosphates producer Innophos Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: IPHS) are expected to have risen 92.3% to $3.37 per share. Innophos beat estimates in the previous quarter by a whopping 210%, and analysts have been impressed with Innophos's lack of debt and pricing gains despite the slowing economy, so, on average, they recommend buying IPHS.

Also early in the week, analysts expect Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT), Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (NASDAQ: KALU), and Oshkosh Corp. (NYSE: OSK) to report that their profits fell 52.9% to $0.33 per share, 45.1% to $0.67 per share, and 41.2% to $0.67 per share, respectively. These companies have tended to beat estimates in recent quarters, and the consensus recommendations of analysts are to buy them. However, PMI Group Inc. (NYSE: PMI), one of the largest private mortgage insurance providers in the U.S., is expected to take another hit as the housing slump drags on. The California-based company is expected to have widened its net loss from $1.04 per share a year ago to $2.43 per share in the most recent quarter. Its shares are down 84.5% from a year ago, and have been trading recently near their 52-week low.

Continue reading The week in preview: Expectations remain high for energy and oil

Pre-market movers (UPS) (BX)

UPS (NYSE:UPS) is down about 5% after reporting a cut in earnings forecasts.

ASML Holding (NASDAQ:ASML) is up 4% on an upgrade from Goldman.

Cooper Tire (NASDAQ:CTB) is off almost 4% after it cut North American production on lower demand.

Blackstone (NYSE:BX) is off 3% after it filed for the sale of over 800 million shares.

Stocks may trade differently in the pre-market than they do in the regular session.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Analyst upgrades: CPB, LCC, LOW, NTES and RTRSY

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lowe's (LOW), Cooper Tire & Rubber (CTB), Campbell Soup (CPB), Reuters Group (RTRSY) and Netease.com (NTES) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • JP Morgan upgraded Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) to Overweight from Neutral based on improved risk/return and conservative near-term estimates. UBS upgraded Lowe's to Buy from sell on valuation.
  • Cooper Tire & Rubber (NYSE: CTB) was upgraded to Buy from Sell, as the firm thinks Copper is benefiting from surging demand for tires in Asia and considers the recent weakness a buying opportunity.
  • UBS upgraded shares of Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) to Buy from Neutral, citing expected growth acceleration, productivity savings, and attractive valuation.
  • Deutsche Bank is positive on the Thomson (TOC)-Reuters combination and expected synergies, upgrading Reuters Group (NASDAQ: RTRSY) to Buy from Hold.
  • Netease.com (NASDAQ: NTES) was upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna based on valuation and checks that indicate better than expected performance of Westward Journey Online III...
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Banc of America upgraded Glu Mobile (NASDAQ: GLUU) to Buy from Neutral.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Cooper Tire: Low profile, not-so-low profits

In the financial world, there are the high-profile plays, and the low-key plays.

Cooper Tire & Rubber Company
(NYSE: CTB) is decidedly in the latter category, but one that moderate risk-tolerant investors may wish to consider.

Cooper sells tires exclusively for the replacement market, and also manufactures rubber-based and automotive components. Cooper's shares were down 15c to $23.98 in Monday afternoon trading.

But Cooper's main business is replacement tires, and the company's sales trend appears to have bottomed in late 2006, with revenues and CTB's price certainly reflecting that: Revenue increased 24% in 2006, and is up about 17% so far in 2007 while the stock has zoomed from about $8 in Sept. 2006 to around $24 today.

Continue reading Cooper Tire: Low profile, not-so-low profits

Analyst downgrades 3-07-07: Campbell Soup downgraded to Sell at Goldman

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Campbell Soup Company (CPB) and Wyerhaeuser Company (WY) topped today's modest-sized list of downgrades:
  • Goldman Sachs downgraded Campbell Soup Co (NYSE: CPB) to Sell from Neutral with a $40 target and added the company to its America's Sell List as they see minimal upside over the next year.
  • UBS cut Wyerhaeuser Co (NYSE: WY) to Reduce from Neutral on valuation.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Cooper Tire & Rubber Company (NYSE: CTB) was downgraded at Deutsche Bank to Hold from Buy on valuation.
  • Progressive Gaming International Corp (NASDAQ: PGIC) was cut to Accumulate from Buy at ThinkEquity.
  • Lazard downgraded Insmed Inc (NASDAQ: INSM) to Hold from Buy following the litigation settlement with Tercica, Inc (NASDAQ: TRCA) as they see a lack of revenues for the next 2-3 years
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.5410,464.25
NASDAQ+7.832,177.01
S&P 500+4.791,110.44

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 03:06 PM

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