Shares of Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (NASDAQ: CTRP) dropped into negative territory right out of the gate this morning, thanks to some skeptical analyst commentary. The Shanghai-based travel firm is slated to report its second-quarter earnings after the closing bell tonight, and Piper Jaffray analyst Michael J. Olson warned in a client note that he expects CTRP's results to fall short of consensus estimates.

Olson, who maintains a "neutral" rating on CTRP, cited the severe earthquake that hit western China in May as a key fundamental challenge for the company. He noted a 1% year-over-year decline in Chinese air traffic during the second quarter, observing, "This is the first time since the SARS issue in 2003 that China Airline traffic data has turned negative." He also expects that Ctrip's third-quarter outlook will disappoint the Street, due to travel restrictions related to the Olympic Games in Beijing.

Ahead of tonight's second-quarter release, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are expecting Ctrip.com to report a profit of 20 cents per American Depositary Receipt (ADR) on $53.8 million in revenue. The company has a history of solid performance in the earnings spotlight; according to First Call, Ctrip.com has exceeded analysts' consensus estimates in each of the previous four quarters. And, in contrast to Olson's skepticism, Catherine Leung of Citi Investment Research believes that the online travel firm can pull off another positive surprise.

Analyst upgrades

• Rodman & Renshaw upgraded shares of Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN) to Outperform from Market Perform following the positive top line results from the FREEDOM study. The firm established an $80 target. Jefferies upgraded shares to Buy from Hold following the positive top-line efficacy and safety results for Denosumab in PMO as they view it as a "big win." The firm raised their target to $71 from $47.
• Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Banc of America.
  
• Goldman upgraded Kimberly Clark (NYSE: KMB) to Neutral from Sell and Dick's Sporting Good (NYSE: DKS) to Buy from Neutral.
  
• Rowan Companies (NYSE: RDC) was lifted at JP Morgan to Neutral from Underweight.

Analyst downgrades:

• Jesup & Lamont downgraded shares of Moog (NYSE: MOG.A) to Neutral from Buy on concerns of the company's high rate of R&D and its relative valuation. Keefe Bruyette downgraded shares of Federated Investors to Market Perform from Outperform following the company's lower than expected Q2 results and cut their target to $35.
  
• Ryanair (NASDAQ: RYAAY) was cut to Hold from Buy at Citigroup.

Analyst initiations:

• Morgan Joseph believes Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN)'s positive FREEDOM trial results will have a profound and lasting impact on the company's growth but also on its scientific credibility. The firm initiated coverage with a Buy rating and $77 target.
• Piper assumed Ctrip.com (NASDAQ: CTRP) with a Neutral rating and Epicor Software (NASDAQ: EPIC) with a Buy rating and $8 target.
  
• Banc of America initiated Britannia Bulk (NYSE: DWT) with a Buy rating and $19 target.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal reported that after years of rapid grows, many hedge funds are shutting their doors or merging with others, as expansion has dramatically slowed. As a result, the industry is being dominated mostly by big firms, such as Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC (NYSE: OZM), D.E. Shaw & Co., and Paulson and Co.
• Shares of Ctrip.com International Ltd (NASDAQ: CTRP), China's major Internet travel booker with about 58% of the country's online travel business, have dropped about 30% in the last six weeks alone creating a possible buying opportunity, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard in Asia". Travel in China is expected to grow solidly in the long-term and Ctrip.com said it expects revenue to grow 30% for the three months ending June 30 from a year earlier.
• In a move that could potentially usher in a new phase in the credit crunch, the Financial Times reported that The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) is said to be close to finalizing a plan to restructure a $7B investment vehicle formerly run by Cheyne Capital, a London-based hedge fund.

OTHER PAPERS:

• The Washington Post reported the proposed merger between XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: XMSR) and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc (NASDAQ: SIRI) was under fire yesterday by senior members of the Congressional Black Caucus, who said the deal does not provide enough opportunities for minority-owned programming.

CNET (NASDAQ:CNET) is up over 45% on news of a buy-out from CBS (NYSE:CBS).

Sina (NASDAQ:SINA) is up about 10% on an analyst upgrade.

Barclays (NYSE:BCS) is off 3% on weak earnings and high write-offs.

Ctrip.com (NASDAQ:CTRP) is off 8% over worries about the impact of the earthquake in China on its business.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of Ten Stocks Under $10.

"The Olympics have long been a boon to stock markets of host countries," notes Tony Sagami, a leading global stock advisor with a noted specialty in Asian markets.

In his Asia Stock Alert newsletter, he notes, "I believe the chief beneficiaries of the Olympic Games will be consumer and travel-related stocks. And within these sectors, I've chosen six stocks poised to bring home Olympic gold from Beijing."

"We saw a 19% gain in the Spanish stock market in the 12 months before the 1992 Barcelona Olympics, and the 27% gain in the Greek stock market in the year before the 2004 Athens Olympics. And those countries were not growing at a fraction of the breakneck pace that China is. So it wouldn't surprise me to see the Chinese stock market do even better.

Olympic Gold Winner #1: China Mobile (NYSE: CHL):

"It seems like every person I see in China has a cell phone glued to their ear. And the cell phone is not just the primary voice communication medium in China; it is also the common way most Chinese access the Internet and email. In China, the cell phone 'is' the personal computer.

"Heck, most new high-rise condominium and apartment complexes being built in China aren't even wired for land lines. Once you understand the device's role, you'll see why China Mobile has more cell phone users (360 million) than the U.S. has people. I expect a lot of cell phone calls and text messages during the Beijing Olympics!

MOST NOTEWORTHY: 1-800-Flowers.com, Ctrip.com International, 51job and Choice Hotels were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Nollenberger started shares of 1-800-Flowers.com (NASDAQ: FLWS) with a Buy rating and $14 target and believes shares are undervalued at current levels given the company's compelling growth prospects, strong cash flow generation, and solid balance sheet.
  
• Bear believes Ctrip.com (NASDAQ: CTRP) is the best positioned online travel company ahead of structural changes and consolidation in China's fragmented travel agency industry. The firm initiated shares with an Outperform rating and $80 target.
  
• Bear expects 51job (NASDAQ: JOBS) to benefit from China's increasing Internet user base due to the internet's broadening reach among job seekers, resuming coverage with an Outperform rating and $28 target.
  
• Goldman started Choice Hotels (NYSE: CHH) with a Buy rating and $45 target, as they are positive on the stock given unit growth and minimal capital needs, among other reasons.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Thomas Weisel initiated On Semiconductor (NASDAQ: ONNN) with an Overweight rating and $15 target.
  
• Broadpoint initiated Ariba (NASDAQ: ARBA) with a Buy rating and $15 target and Ultimate Software (NASDAQ: ULTI) with a Neutral rating.
  
• Merrill started shares of Savient Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: SVNT) with a Neutral rating.

BusinessWeek reports that a waitress -- for 20 years and a welder before that -- who has never owned a stock in her life is positioned to win CNBC's Million Dollar Contest. This is sort of like winning the lottery.

And luck -- combined with playing by the rules -- may help Mary Sue Williams of St. Clairsville, OH win that $1 million. According to the last official standings, posted on May 25, she was in sixth place, with a 29% return during the two-week final round. But since many top finishers are suspected of exploiting a loophole in CNBC's trading software to inflate their returns, CNBC may disqualify the five who are ahead of her, leaving Williams the most likely winner.

She followed her mother-in-law's advice, spending about an hour a day checking the financial web site Earnings.com for companies that were about to announce their quarterly results. She figured that companies reporting earnings were the most likely to see big moves. To pick specific stocks, she used the Warren Buffett approach: invest in what you know.

Her most memorable picks included the following:

• WD-40 Co. (NASDAQ: WDFC)
• Crocs Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX),
• CommVault Systems (NASDAQ: CVLT),
• Ctrip.com (NASDAQ: CTRP), and
• Focus Media Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ: FMCN).

If she wins, she plans to use the money for her daughter's education. Now that's a good investment!

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has has no financial interest in the securities mentioned in this post.