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Count to yuan: New ETF banks on Chinese currency

"I've long believed that China's currency is due to appreciate notably against the buck," says currency expert Jack Crooks, upon returning from speaking at a Forex seminar in Beijing.

In his World Currency Alert he explains, "Until now, there's been no straight-forward, highly-liquid way to play it. Now there is: the WisdomTree Chinese Yuan Fund (NYSE: CYB)."

"I now think it makes sense to secure some exposure to the Chinese yuan. There's been a major U.S.-China dynamic that's drastically altered the global economic landscape over the last several years. It goes a little something like this:

  • China sends goods to the U.S.
  • The U.S. sends dollars to China.
  • China sends dollars back to U.S.
  • The U.S. sends treasuries to China.

"Ultimately, China supplies the globe with liquidity. Behind this capital flow is an artificially undervalued Chinese yuan. This exchange rate situation is why China has become a major supplier of goods and capital to the rest of the world.

Continue reading Count to yuan: New ETF banks on Chinese currency

China putting a freeze on hot energy prices

I've written quite a lot recently on the China growth story. While fears of wild inflation and bubble-like conditions abound, I've opined that the Chinese Central Bank was doing its fair share to try to rein in such growth.

Enter today's Marketwatch story reporting that China has frozen energy prices in an attempt to curb soaring prices. "Prices of gasoline, natural gas and electricity shall not be adjusted in the near future, and charges for gas, water, heating and public transport in cities shall not be raised," the Chinese government said in a statement.

The article mentions a few factors compelling China to create price ceilings:
  • China's inflation rate hit a new 11-year high of 6.9% in November.
  • Food price gains are playing a large role in China's fight with inflation. Pork prices, which leaped 56% from a year earlier, combined with meat and poultry prices rising 38.8%, are real drivers of inflation as a wealthier middle class consumes more meat.
  • China hiked interest rates in 2007 six times and also increased banks' reserve requirement ratios 10 times.
You can see the announcement in its entirety on the Chinese government's Web site.

Zack Miller is the Managing Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.

It's not just the US Dollar: Pound also weak

The British Pound sank to new all-time lows against the Euro, as the market is counting on more interest rate cuts in the UK. What is interesting to note that with all the cynics out there saying how lousy the US economy is and that the Dollar is a "has-been" currency, it's not the only major currency to get hit.

This news follows the Bank of Israel raising rates by 0.25%, this move was made in part to slow down potential inflation. The currency markets are at a crossroads. In some countries the dreaded inflation has already arrived, and central banks have no choice but to raise rates. Other countries are doing their utmost to stay out of recession and have relaxed a tight money policy, trying to create more money supply.

2008 promises to be an exciting year in the Forex markets as the inflation/slow growth war is played out among the world's currencies.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. Disclosure: Writer has no position in any stock mentioned as of 12/24/07.

Best & Worst of 2007: The money story of the year

This post was part of AOL Money & Finance's Best & Worst of 2007 feature. The voting has now closed and readers have chosen the weak dollar and rising oil and gold prices as the money story of the year. Be sure to let us know in the comments if you are pleased with this result.

Money story of the year As we approach the end of 2007, we now have a really tough question to answer. What is the Money Story of 2007? What are the candidates?

The Boom and Bust in Private Equity Buyouts

As we entered 2007, no one could imagine the activity with private equity firms around the world. Private equity firms were supposed to be the new Masters of the Universe, ushering in a new Gilded Age not seen since 1920s. We saw this with the initial public offering of the Blackstone Group, the premiere private equity group. This was followed by a series of public and semi-public offerings by other organizations, such as Apollo Group.

However, the new Roaring '20s was relatively short-lived with the credit crunch. This caused most merger activity, including corporate buyouts, to come to grinding halt. Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) now trades substantially below its high price. Who could guess that private equity would experience a boom and bust all in the same year? However, before you dismiss private equity as an element of the past, remember that most of these firms still have substantial cash available ready to invest when conditions are ripe.

Continue reading Best & Worst of 2007: The money story of the year

The currency trade for 2008, as per Goldman Sachs

Bloomberg ran an interesting article this morning. The article contained an interview with Jens Nordvig, a senior currency strategist in New York at Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS). Nordvig said the top currency trade for 2008 will be to sell the U.S. dollar against a basket of Asian currencies, including the currencies of Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan.

In the article, Nordvig cites two reasons why this trade should work next year:
  1. Asian central banks should allow faster currency appreciation to offset inflation in their home countries
  2. It is becoming costlier for the central banks to enter foreign exchange market
The Malaysian, Singaporean and Taiwanese currencies will each gain about 5% to 10% against the dollar in the next year, according to Nordvig.

Zack Miller is the Managing Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.

'Real' smart: Supermodel Gisele Bundchen knows her currency baskets

Gisele BundchenBrazilian supermodel Gisele Bundchen earned $33 million in the first six months of the year. And when Bundchen signed on to do commercials for Pantene, she made an an unusual request: She wanted to be payed in the currency of her native Brazil not U.S. dollars. Early reports had said she was being paid in euros, but her manager said she was in fact being paid in real.

According to Bloomberg, "That's turned out to be the better choice. The real has risen 21.3% against the dollar this year, while the euro gained 10.4%. The real is the best performer among the 26 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg, thanks to burgeoning global demand for Brazil's commodity exports. Only the Canadian dollar has strengthened more among major currencies, up 21.8%. "

What do we make of this? Well perhaps Etrade NASDAQ: ETFC) should hire her to manage its investments -- that is if it can top the pay package Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) presents when it offers her the CEO job.

As for me, I'll be asking AOL to pay me in Shekels -- or perhaps wheat futures. If I really want to get rich, I could even ask for China Finance Online (NASDAQ: JRJC) puts.

ALSO SEE: Gisele Bundchen dumps the dollar, demands payment in euros

Markets plunge on near-$100 oil, a record-low dollar, and billions in distressed debt

The New York Times reports that the Dow lost 360 points -- or 2.64% -- back to where it was before Ben Bernanke cut the Federal Funds Rate an unexpectedly large 50 basis points. My message to Bernanke is that cutting rates just to keep the market from falling is not a winning strategy.

The Fed is supposed to keep inflation in check, and it's failing at that job. How so? At $96.37, the price of oil is near an unprecedented $100, and gasoline prices -- which blessedly dropped during the fall -- are poised to rise about 50% to $4.50 a gallon, just as people step up their driving during the holidays. On January 19, 2001, oil was $24 a barrel -- it has since quadrupled. Meanwhile, the cost of heating a home is hitting a record -- $3.05 a gallon for home heating oil in Massachusetts. It may be higher elsewhere.

Then there's the little problem that the Fed has engendered through its rate cuts -- a dollar that's plunging like a knife. Relative to the euro, the dollar has lost 13% from $1.30 at the beginning of January 2007, to its current $1.47. And since January 19, 2001, the dollar has lost 60% of its value! Back then, one euro bought 92 cents. In addition to Brazilian supermodel Gisele Bundchen, China is now seeking to switch from the dollar to the euro. So the dollar drop is feeding on itself.

Continue reading Markets plunge on near-$100 oil, a record-low dollar, and billions in distressed debt

Sunday Funnies: Ben Bernanke, someone hates what has happened

Bear MarketI'm glad that I'm not the only one who is just a little miffed at the way that Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and his elite staff have chosen to handle our economy. My feelings fall pretty much in line with those of investment genius Jim Rogers. I listened to a short interview with him today on public radio. He pretty much confirmed my belief that the dollar could be going the way of the dinosaurs. For crying out loud, the Fed dumped about four tons of greenbacks on the financial system Thursday. Bank leaders such as Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) aren't generating enough profit to meet the demands of operation and to please the shareholders at the same time! What's the Fed going to do about the 80% profit decline at Wachovia Corp. (NYSE: WB)? A lower basis point for bank borrowing won't even scratch the surface of the cash shortfall. In fact, the lower the basis point the more it injures the bank's ability to make a profit on the loans that we need right now to salvage some home ownership scenarios from the mortgage debacle. How much more evidence do you need to realize we are living in a time of disastrous fiscal policy? We're lining up to make 1929 look like a cake walk.

Continue reading Sunday Funnies: Ben Bernanke, someone hates what has happened

What $96 oil, $800 gold, a 100% foreclosure spike, and a $2.08 British pound mean to you

Oklahoma City oil derrickWhat a fantastic time to own oil, gold, or any currency other than the dollar! And what a wonderful world it must be for foreclosure lawyers! How can you profit? Buy non-dollar currencies, lock in your heating oil price, and consider shorting mortgage insurers.

The statistics are mind-numbingly awful. The price of oil hit a record $96 a barrel, up 300% from $24 in January 2001. Gold is near a record high at $800, the dollar is at record lows -- for instance it takes $2.08 to buy a British pound. Housing, which has been tumbling from its peak in August 2006, is hurting too -- with foreclosures up 100% in the last year. And the mortgage meltdown has led to big layoffs -- my firm counts 70,087 finance layoffs by 42 companies so far this year.

There are three ways you can profit from this trend. First, you can buy currencies -- like the pound and the Euro -- which are getting stronger as the dollar weakens. Second, if you heat your house with oil, you can consider locking in a fixed price -- because oil is clearly going to keep going up.

Continue reading What $96 oil, $800 gold, a 100% foreclosure spike, and a $2.08 British pound mean to you

Cramer on BloggingStocks: A slumping dollar will make earnings pop

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer explains why lousy results from a U.K.-based firm bode well for American companies this reporting season.

Tate & Lyle's loss is our gain. That's the only way to think about the big decline in that U.K.-based sugar producer's stock this morning on news that the currency translation from dollars to pounds will kill it.

The declining dollar is going to make some of these earnings in the next few weeks jump off the chart. They will be so much higher than people think they will be for the big exporters, particularly those to Europe (we don't have much to go to Japan) that you are going to be blown away.

The big litmus test this earnings reporting period will be the exposure to these foreign currencies. We fret every day about the dollar, but it is a little ridiculous at this point -- meaning the currency is way too low.

Nevertheless, a Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) (Cramer's Take) will kill the numbers, so will a Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) (Cramer's Take). I know these are at 52-week highs, but we are now going to have to start looking at stocks that haven't gone up that much this year. Take PG; it's only up 9%. That gives it some room. Same with Colgate (NYSE: CL) (Cramer's Take). Those still worth betting on; they can still run.

Oh, and don't forget, for the purposes of next quarter, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) (Cramer's Take) will have more than 50% in earnings overseas. The firm is not going to report for while, but that's still another reason to own it -- and another reason to expect that a foreign company will take a stake in Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) (Cramer's Take) before long despite the Buffett denial. If a stake is taken, I doubt it will be domestic.

RELATED LINKS:
Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Goldman Sachs.

Bernanke's next target: The U.S. greenback

With gold going through the roof since mid-August, jumping from $660 to $743 per ounce, Mr. Bernanke has to be asking whether he is stepping too hard on the monetary gas peddle. Is gold heading higher due to concerns of global inflation or is it heading higher because the world's safe haven, the U.S. dollar, has been getting weaker and weaker?

Expect Mr. Bernanke, the U.S. Treasury secretary and central bankers around the world to find out. The U.S. dollar-Euro exchange rate has gotten completely out of hand with the euro approaching 140 to the dollar versus the 85 level in 2002. Since the dollar has been depreciating against the euro, gold has shot through the roof.

Historically, despite all the talk about comparative purchasing power and differing short-term interest rates determining fair values for currencies, currency values are determined by the trend-is-your-friend mentality of traders. They lever up and ride the trade until the treasury secretaries around the world get together and reverse that trend.

Expect the euro's appreciation versus the dollar to end the same way and expect it to happen soon. Bernanke has to determine if gold is going higher because too much money is chasing too few goods, or gold is trading higher because global investors would rather hold gold than an overvalued euro.

With sentiment so bearish on the dollar, it seems like a good time to go long the U.S. greenback.

Bernanke can't revive LBOs: Sallie Mae (SLM) deal cratering

Despite a 50 basis point drop in the price of money, the Bernanke bailout is not helping the LBO market much. The New York Times [registration required] reports that a $25 billion deal to take student loan bundler Sallie Mae parent SLM Corp. (NYSE: SLM) private is on the skids.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg News reports that the negative side effects of lower interest rates is helping weaken the dollar. This morning it hit a record low of $1.40 relative to the euro. This may actually be good news for companies that derive a significant portion of their revenues from overseas -- particularly in Europe. But as someone who is thinking about taking a trip to Europe next year, I am concerned about how outrageous the prices there will seem to me.

J.C. Flowers, the firm spearheading the SLM buyout, may be willing to walk away from the deal and pay the $900 million breakup fee. Sallie Mae stock now trades 17% below its 52-week high of $58, probably because the market anticipates the deal will either fall apart or be concluded at a much lower price.

Continue reading Bernanke can't revive LBOs: Sallie Mae (SLM) deal cratering

Canadian dollars and American dollars: A peso for your thoughts.

There is a bit of glee circulating on the frozen tundra amid news that the Canadian dollar has hit the equivalence of 92.34 American cents, its highest point in 30 years. TD Securities Inc. chief currency strategist Shaun Osborne states that it is possible that the Canadian dollar could reach a value of .96 cents by June. Analysts agree that if commodity prices continue to rise, there stands a good chance that the two currencies would equalize. I say if that point is reached the two currencies should be immediately put into lockstep and our fluctuating currency exchange on our northern border should end forever. Could it be done? Yes, it could. Will it ever happen? Probably it won't.

Personally, I think the benefits would far outweigh the temporary disadvantages. Granted, I expect there would be quite a tussle in the commodities exchange for a time but that's a self adjusting system anyway. NAFTA paved the way for the "free flow" of goods and materials across our borders. Currency equalization would take the teeth out of much of the damage that tilted document has inflicted upon the American economy. I suspect that Canadian manufacturers might get just a little testy about the idea, but I believe that in the long run it would level the playing field for them as well as us. I also think it would give North America a lot more leverage in the world markets.

Economic idealists and world view visionaries already have a name for a singular North American currency. Do a web search for the word "Amero" and you'll spend the rest of your week reading about it. You'll receive every point of view you could ever imagine. Some say it would be the next step to the "One World Government," some say it would be a protectionist move. I say it's the most logical step toward stabilizing two very powerful yet unsteady economies. I see it as a grand statement to the rest of the world that there's still a force to be reckoned with over here pinned between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

Then, if we could just annex Mexico...

China hikes interest rates, raises reserve requirements

China is currently taking a sledgehammer to its economy in an attempt to slowdown growth. On Friday, China officials announced it was hiking short-term rates, increasing the required reserves banks maintain on loans and increasing the band on its currency to let it further appreciate. All powerful tools to halt money supply growth.

These steps follow news reports this week that one of China's more respected entrepreneurs said the Chinese stock market is a bubble. We blogged a few weeks back that Chinese retail investors opened more than one million stock trading accounts in one week and over 10 million the last four months -- greater than the previous four years combined.

Currency appreciation during the short-term always adds more fuel to the fire. As Chinese investors expect the yuan to appreciate, they will convert their massive hoard of US dollars to yuan and then most likely look for additional profits in the stock market. This always ends ugly when the central back finally succeeds at sucking enough money out of the economy and then the market will have a serious correction.

I'd stay away from Chinese stocks. China hosts the Olympics in 2008 and does not want a bubble economy when the world shows up. Stick with the mature economies for now.

Sentiment beginning to change on dollar

Investment sentiment towards the U.S. dollar appears to be changing. Why? Not because of the many economic and political reasons often cited such as the huge U.S. trade and budget deficits improving, plans for getting out of the Iraqi quagmire, or the prospects for political change. But more importantly, the Euro and the British pound have simply gotten too strong versus the dollar.

Today you need many more dollars to buy a pound, the same is true for the euro. While many had questioned the ability for the euro to be a sustainable and viable currency, after a dubious start, the euro has performed quite well.

The simple fact of the matter is that currency valuation is often determined more by the-trend-is-your-friend mentality than a currency's underlying fundamentals -- particularly when talking about the major currencies such as the U.S. dollar, British pound, euro or yen.

What often drives a change in currency valuation are the world's treasury secretaries working together, along with their respective central bankers, to change a currency's course. Ways to play this reversal? Barron's over the weekend listed some Rydex vehicles to invest in:
  • CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling (FXB)
  • CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXB)
  • CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
If you really want to be cute and play the currency reversal, you could wait for the next G-8 meeting to be held. However, this will most likely be a multi-year reversal in the dollar versus the world's other leading currencies so it might be best not to wait for this meeting but to begin shorting these Rydex vehicles now.

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Last updated: September 05, 2008: 12:58 AM

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