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Options Update: Cosan and Imperial Sugar volatility low on sugar prices

Cosan (NYSE: CZZ), an ethanol and sugar company, closed at $7.99. Sugar prices are near a 28-year high. CZZ call option volume of 2,974 contracts compares to put volume of 274 contracts. CZZ September option implied volatility is at 82, December is at 77; below its 26-week average of 98, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Imperial Sugar (NASDAQ: IPSU) closed at $14.60. IPSU September option implied volatility is at 65, October is at 64 and January is at 61; below its 26-week average of 70, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Obama stock: Expanding biofuels from Brazil, Cosan (CZZ)

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

"My pick for an Obama victory would be Cosan (NYSE: CZZ), a major Brazilian maker of ethylene from sugar; the company should benefit as the U.S. expands its use of alternative fuels," says Vivian Lewis, editor of Global Investing.

"Cosan will benefit from growing world demand for sugar. But it is also an alternative energy play because Brazil leads the world in production and distribution of ethylene, a policy undertaken after the first oil price shock of 1974.

"Obama is not happy with U.S. dependence on OPEC oil imports; and, obviously, the Brazilians are much less of a threat to our values, with the country now a democracy with free elections and a rather liberal economic policy.

"The U.S. ethylene market currently remains closed to Brazilian exports as we try to making the stuff from corn. But some of that nonsense may not survive.

"If the U.S. is serious about alternative fuels, then these alternative fuels should be as easy to import to the U.S. as crude oil, if not easier. After all, Brazil does not finance terrorists.

"While many have been focused on the falling price of oil, I forecast that the price drop will soon reverse.

"Meanwhile, the London-based International Sugar Organization says regardless of what happens to the world economy, demand for sugar will exceed supplies this year for the first time since 2006.

"Brazil is the world's top sugar producer, and it will use 56% of its production to make ethanol. Cosan management says they plan to increase production and expect the strengthening dollar to give an extra boost to earnings.

"In my view, Cosan is cheap. The stock was recently trading at half its 12-month high. It already ships its ethylene and sugar diesel fuel to European markets, which are more sensible about encouraging alternatives than is our current government in Washington."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Cosan (CZZ): Double-barreled bet on Brazil and biofuels

"Cosan SA Indústria & Comércio (NYSE: CZZ) is a terrific company that is benefiting from both higher agricultural prices and higher fuel prices," says Mike Burnick in his newly-launched advisory service, Market Shock Trader.

"Sugar-cane based ethanol has been refined for years in Brazil, at a significant cost advantage to other sources of ethanol. In fact, Brazilian ethanol is about 40% cheaper to make than in the U.S. - and costs less than half the price of European ethanol.

"It doesn't require deforestation or the destruction of natural resources to cultivate it. It can be processed and refined without expensive exploration and drilling. And, it produces 5 times the energy output of corn.

"Today, ethanol accounts for 50% of Brazil's total annual automotive fuel consumption, and more than 70% of all new cars sold in the country are flex-fuel capable, able to run either on gasoline, ethanol or some combination of the two.

"And Brazil's ethanol industry has plenty of room to grow for years to come - and plenty of customers demanding its low-cost cash crop. Germany alone uses about 450 million gallons of bio-diesel a year. An estimated 50% of Europe's cars and trucks can run on this bio-fuel.

"With Brazil at the hub of the alternative fuel revolution, Cosan SA Indústria & Comércio (NYSE: CZZ) is the king-of-ethanol. And, it's also the king-of-agriculture in Brazil too. That gives you double-play profit potential as Cosan earns a fortune from both higher sugar prices and booming ethanol demand.

Continue reading Cosan (CZZ): Double-barreled bet on Brazil and biofuels

Analyst initiations: STD, SLH, FCN and BCSI

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Banco Santander, Solera, FTI Consulting and Blue Coat Systems were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Societe Generale expects the Banco Santander's (NYSE: STD) strong organic growth in earnings to continue with the purchase of ABN Amro's (NYSE: ABN) assets in Brazil and Italy, starting shares off with a Buy rating. Shares were started at Merrill Lynch with a Neutral rating.
  • William Blair initiated Solera Holdings (NYSE: SLH) with an Outperform rating, as they believe underlying trends for auto insurance claims are favorable.
  • FTI Consulting (NYSE: FCN) was initiated at Deutsche Bank, as they believe the company is positioned to sustain double-digit growth, and with a Buy rating and $65 target and at Goldman with a Neutral rating and $62 target.
  • Pacific Crest initiated Blue Coat Systems (NASDAQ: BCSI) with a Sector Perform rating on valuation and estimates fair value at $50/share.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+73.0010,270.47
NASDAQ+18.862,167.88
S&P 500+6.241,093.48

Last updated: November 14, 2009: 08:41 AM

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